Rooting interests this weekend based on CFP Ranking?
1. I know. Just win and it will work out.
2. However, it is fun to watch other games and have some vested interest in pulling for a certain team to win.
3. I know its too early to worry about this stuff. Once again, just looking for an excuse to be glued to CFB all weekend.
I have not broken down the landscape, so I was wondering if anyone knows who we should be pulling to win these games?
Bama at LSU - It seems like we might want Bama to kick out LSU ahead of us. But, if LSU wins could there be 2 SEC teams in the mix? Bama is most assuredly going to make it even if they don't win the SEC. (Same issue might arise even if Bama wins, but somehow losses to UGA in SEC title game)
ND at Northwestern - Once again, seems like we want NW to kick out a ND team ahead of us. But, we want ND to be a "good loss" for us and it might be better for us if they win out (and OU, LSU and others fall). Or does having another midwestern team hurt our chance before the CFP?
Other games - I assume we want OSU to win out up to The Game. But, do I really need to root for that? Of course, we want Kentucky to pull off theupset and hope Texas Tech has some fight in them....
Any insight? (Thanks in advance.)
October 30th, 2018 at 7:43 PM ^
I'm not sure how the committee would handle it if us and ND are one loss teams. It would be hard to imagine them putting us in over them.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:48 PM ^
ND’s loss would be later in the season. If we win out that means we won the B1G championship. If ND doesn’t Ike it, they can join some candy ass conference (Looking at you Big 12) and play in a conference championship. I’m tired of everyone worrying about Rudy’s feelings. Screw them.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:26 PM ^
11 wins in a row + a conference championship looks much better than a 1 game losing streak with no conference championship. But what do I know...
October 30th, 2018 at 10:05 PM ^
If NW beats ND and is the B1G West champ, I've got to think we would be ahead of ND since we would be 2-0 against NW and one of those wins would be essentially contemporaneous with ND's loss to them. (Obviously this assumes we win out, otherwise forget it.)
October 30th, 2018 at 11:55 PM ^
This: the "comparables v.s. the same team" metric v.s. NW would be bigger at this point than a season opener, on the road, in which we outplayed them for more than half the game.
October 31st, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
The one thing that you have to consider with ND and not anyone else,... We lost to them.
Say what you will; first game, controlled most of the game, came back towards the end, game win steak, early loss vs late, ... One of the higher decision points the CFP has (just like the B1G) is "Head to Head" and no rose colored glasses or logic argument is going to change that. It is above ”Comparables v.s. the same team ".
IMO we need ND to either be a lock in the CFP with 0 losses, or out with 2 losses. I am fearful that if it comes down to us or a 1 loss ND for the last spot, it'll be ND chosen no matter how many wins or conference championships we have.
Only other team I believe we have to hope wins out is Bama for all the reason mentioned in above posts.
As much as I dislike it, I am going to root for both ND and Bama win out. (As much as I'd like to see NW win this week.) Another loss by Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, and LSU are all good things.
Interestingly, I think Herbstreit brought up that it may be a smart tactic for Saban to have them lose close to LSU this week. As they'll get in anyway and it would allow them to sit out the SEC Championship game to rest up, and shut out Michigan and Oklahoma, which he felt were more dangerous to Alabama than SEC championship winner.
October 31st, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
A couple of things, 1) if there are other 1 loss teams in the mix, say Oklahoma and WSU, it's no longer a head to head comparison, the overall SOS takes on more importance. 2) There's a lot of balancing by the committee, HTH is important but so is when the loss occurred. In addition, M will be a conference champion in our hypothetical.
The thing that I worry about the most is UGA beating Alabama in the SEC championship. I agree that 'Bama is in because they are the best team in the country, if UGA beats them I think they would pass us.
October 31st, 2018 at 2:05 PM ^
Agree with you about Oklahoma, with one loss they could slip past if they dominate WVU or in the BIG12 championship. Any 1 loss SEC is a worry also. (Face it, until the final comes out, I guess I'm just a big 'fraidy cat!!)
WSU isn't a worry, their non-conf was crap, and the way the PAC12 traded losses this year, they won't have wins anywhere near comparable to an OSU, or PSU alone, let alone what we get from ND loss, MSU, Wisc and B1G championship.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
... if WE and ND are....
FIFY
October 30th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^
That's easy. We play in a conference and actually won our conference. We lost to ND week one. We'd be in
October 30th, 2018 at 8:46 PM ^
Absolutely...this is not even debatable.
1. Root for Alabama...all the way...Alabama as the SEC champion is the best thing for Michigan...and everyone except for the rest of the SEC...unless they would lose twice...yeah right!
2. Root for an ND loss. Michigan's loss to them will NOT outweigh wins over Northwestern, Wisconsin, MSU, PSU, OSU and the west division champ...it simply will not.
3. Root for Georgia and Oklahoma to lose.
4. May as well root for a very bad Clemson loss...they have done it before.
If Michigan wins out...that should take care of things. Long way to go.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:36 PM ^
Regarding bama vs. lsu, IMHO want the following to happen in order of preference:
- Bama win BIG!
- LSU win BIG!
- Bama win and dominate the rest of the way and another LSU loss would help
- LSU win and dominate the rest of the way and another bama loss would help
October 30th, 2018 at 9:10 PM ^
Exactly. ND has to win out to get in since they're too good to join a conference and play a 13th game. We would definitely be in over a 1-loss ND.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:52 PM ^
It would be interesting if it happened. Their schedule could end up being terrible outside the Michigan game as ND may not have another win over the top 25 (Syracuse, Northwestern, Stanford, and VT are their best hopes).
I think who the loss is to also matters. If the loss were to Northwestern this weekend, I don't think it hurts us as much because we have a head-to-head win over Northwestern. Possibly two if we were to play them in the B1G Championship Game.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^
If ND has a loss they are toast. No conference championship game will definitely hurt them
October 30th, 2018 at 8:40 PM ^
The playoff board putting ND at 4th didn't look good for ND. If they had been at 3 the it would have been a stronger signal sent that ND has a good footing with them.
If Michigan had played in the 1st half against ND the way they did in the 2nd half, it would have been another domination by Michigan like Wisconsin and Michigan St. If I remember right, ND had only 69 yards, and three 1st downs the entire 2nd half. I think the board would have no issue with Michigan leapfrogging ND, and staying ahead of them the rest of the year if ND loses once.
October 31st, 2018 at 5:47 AM ^
I doubt the committee will look that closely to the argument that Michigan dominated the 2nd half in the loss to ND. Yes, our QB play is better now; however theirs (with a different QB) - is much better, and that is the media narrative of their season. We have to face facts: winning that game, they have the advantage on Michigan unless they have a bad loss and Michigan is impressive winning out.
The board putting ND 4th in the first poll won't matter, either. If they win (especially if they win impressively) either LSU will drop out of the top 4 (if Bama wins), or Bama will drop to #4 (LSU wins). Either way, I'd expect to see ND to move up, unless they lose.
October 31st, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
ND at 4th had to be a big signal to them. The CFP doesn't think much of their undefeated record. They need to prove something.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:15 PM ^
We need NW to win because we need some teams we beat to be ranked. Right now we have no wins over teams that are currently ranked.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:16 PM ^
We saw Michigan completely dominate Penn St 2 years ago. But Penn St was still ranked higher than Michigan by the CFP at the end of the season.
October 30th, 2018 at 10:00 PM ^
12-1 > 11-1 I think
October 31st, 2018 at 6:00 PM ^
Winning Conference Championship > no Conference Championship
October 31st, 2018 at 4:32 AM ^
It kind of doesn't matter, then. If ND wins out, they are above UM. If they lose one game, they are (perhaps) still above UM, depending on what that loss is. If they lose two, they are out. So it's not really worth worrying about. Assume they win out, and it means UM has to be among the remaining three teams. If they lose one game, that (perhaps) doesn't change. If they lose two, hooray another spot.
October 31st, 2018 at 7:55 AM ^
Michigan will be ahead of ND, if ND loses to NU. Though, depending on how the SEC pans out a 1 loss ND may still make the playoffs over OU if they win out.
October 31st, 2018 at 9:08 AM ^
Everyone who says we would easily be in over a one-loss ND needs to take a step back and say WWSBS (What Would Skip Bayless Say). The simpletons of the college football world, who are everywhere, will blather on incessantly about how head-to-head is everything and it's not even debatable that Michigan should be in over a team it lost too, no matter when, where, or how. Mix in a generous dose of Notre Dame darlingism, hatred of Michigan/Harbaugh, and Jim Delaney gazing lovingly at his navel (it's where he keeps his cash) and I could totally see us getting left out. I see a better chance of us getting over one-loss Bama, given they have not played anyone and they wouldn't want to leave out three conferences, than one-loss ND. So Roll Tide, I guess.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:45 PM ^
Rooting for Alabama makes me feel dirty. But I have to at this point.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:55 PM ^
I rooted (roat??) for Alabama before. Over MSU. It was glorious
October 30th, 2018 at 8:23 PM ^
No, just hope Alabama loses twice. Problem solved.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:42 PM ^
Yeah, that'll be..... easy.
October 31st, 2018 at 9:30 AM ^
Problem salved?
October 31st, 2018 at 2:13 PM ^
Yeah, maybe they'll lose 2 games by 2020
October 31st, 2018 at 9:14 AM ^
Roll Tide!
(We Want Bama!)
October 31st, 2018 at 10:11 AM ^
Doesn't matter. The mostly SEC/ACC CFP Committee members will have the year end rankings as follows:
1. Bama (even if it loses to LSU)
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. LSU
Why you ask? Because BAMA is the best dad 'gum football team in the last 50 years, all the pundits say so. LSU is going to beat Bama but lose to UGA in the SEC championship game. Can't leave out the SEC champ, nor can you leave out the only team that could possibly beat the best team in the last 50 years. And Clemson will run the table and get in anyway for voting to support the above gibberish.
Michigan on the other hand, although it has a solid defense, seems to struggle at times on offense, and plays in the Midwest.
/s
*****
Perhaps this is worthy of a CFP snowflake thread sometime, but I wonder what it would look like if a strength of schedule determination included a metric that compared the average non-conference schedule strength of the entire conference. For example, if the SEC schedules a bunch of cupcakes, its SOS would e modified by a factor of, say, 0.7, to account for its cowardice. This would also work to offset the distortion we're seeing of getting so many teams into the Top 25 on the back of their candy-ass non-conference schedules. Similarly, if your conference plays a stronger non-conference schedule, you could see a modifier of something like 1.3. This might already be in place, but as a whole, it's pretty obvious to me that the SEC and the ACC are colluding to screw with the standings. It was like this with the BCS, and we're seeing it here again. Honestly, I have no faith that the top four will be the best 4 in the country. There's just too much money involved.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:46 PM ^
Michigan over PSU is my rooting interest
October 30th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
I only root for UofM ..... and CHAOS!
October 30th, 2018 at 7:51 PM ^
Chaos hurts us.
October 31st, 2018 at 4:56 AM ^
Not if it's everyone except Michigan losing games.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:52 PM ^
chaos would be LSU winning, which would all but ensure Alabama and the SEC winner make the playoff. We don't want that.
We want Alabama to win out and give every top SEC team their second loss.
October 30th, 2018 at 8:44 PM ^
Chaos killed the dinosaurs.
But ..... that is chaos.
CHAOS! is Clemson loses 1, ND loses 1, OK loses 1 more and the SEC champ has 2 losses.
#1) UofM
#2) ND
#3) UCF
#4) WSU*
*of course not WSU, but a 2 loss Bama.
Now THAT is CHAOS!
October 30th, 2018 at 8:52 PM ^
the winner of the SEC would be in over UCF in all scenarios this season
October 30th, 2018 at 9:05 PM ^
I’ll see your CHAOS, and raise you ULTIMATE CHAOS:
1. Bama
2. LSU
3. Georgia
4. Florida
Because that’s what they want.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:52 PM ^
id Pay good money to see a UM/ND rematch in the CFP. That’d be a doozy
October 30th, 2018 at 7:53 PM ^
Notre Dame needs to lose. Plain and simple. Good wins are more important than good losses. Them being in the top 4 makes it a lot harder for Michigan to get in
October 30th, 2018 at 8:07 PM ^
Not sure why you're getting negged. I agree with this. There are a finite number of spots: 4. An undefeated ND team is guaranteed one of them. A 1-loss ND team is not. UM would win the Big Ten and win an extra game.
IMO there's no scenario in which an 11-1 ND team is ahead of a 12-1 Big Ten Champion UM team, even with the head to head. But, every scenario would have a 12-0 ND team ahead of a 12-1 UM team.
Root for ND to lose. And for those talking about "quality of loss" an 11-1 ND team is still a top-10 team.
Edit: Another way to think of this is would you rather be one of three one-loss teams vying for the final spot or one of four one-loss teams vying for two spots?
October 30th, 2018 at 8:19 PM ^
2017 OU had their one loss to 8-4 ISU
2016 Clemson had their one loss to 8-4 Pitt
2015 MSU had their one loss to 5-7 Nebraska
2015 OU had their one loss to 5-7 Texas
2014 OSU had their one loss to 6-6 V Tech.
The Notre Dame game was a loss, and will stay as a loss. There's no getting it back. 12-0 Notre Dame leaves one less spot for a 12-1 Michigan team to get in, so it's better if they lose and get out of the conversation. As long as the one loss is close, the committee is pretty forgiving regardless of who it's to. They value wins more than "good" losses.
October 31st, 2018 at 7:42 AM ^
Excellent point. I had not thought of that.
October 30th, 2018 at 9:54 PM ^
We need style points, crush PSU by 40. Look at Clemson, they know their schedule is a joke so they run it up on every creampuff they play and barely win a squeaker over the powerhouse Syracuse.
October 30th, 2018 at 7:55 PM ^
Definitely want Bama to beat LSU. Knocks them out from ahead of us, and minimizes the chances of Bama not making the SEC title game, since we all know they'd get into the playoffs notwithstanding that.
ND vs. NW is kinda a push. NW winning makes our one loss a little worse, and one of our wins a little better.
Other than that, cheer against any of the top 10 or 15 1 loss teams to get another L. If we win out everything should work out, but the fewer teams with a plausible stake on a spot the less opportunity for the committee to be dumb.