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I have literally not heard…

I have literally not heard either of these takes.  Do you have a reference (other than random fan on twitter) of someone saying JJ is "the best QB in the draft" or someone "lose their shit that anyone would consider taking him in the first round."  I'm not saying neither have happened, just surprised that this is your take as though it's everywhere and I haven't heard either.  

Why would anyone root for…

Why would anyone root for people over teams?  I won't root against him and I'm not mad he left but put me down as a solid 6.  I don't really care how the Chargers do, I'll still root for the Lions.  Rooting for a person over a team seems insane to me and highly against pretty much everything coaches teach.  I don't root for every NFL team that drafts a Michigan player, this is no different for me.  I guess it's cool if he does well but I wasn't rooting for the 49ers because they had Moody kicking field goals.  I will root for the Lions and I'll root for any circumstance that helps the Lions.  Chargers being in the AFC means I probably won't care one way or the other.  6.

I agree with most people on…

I agree with most people on here and I'll just add this. I live on a street where everyone is modestly wealthy/successful.  Houses range from $2-$4M.  I don't think anyone is super wealthy, but everyone is definitely comfortable.  Here is a list of careers from my street ("/" indicates careers of both spouses): Doctor (surgeon), Doctor (Emergency)/Doctor (Peds), Private Pilot, Pilot / Sales at a startup tech company, Pharmaceutical Sales, Owns Oil Company, Owns Defense consulting company, owns generator company / IT Manager, owns a car wash, owns Amazon shipping company, owns a roofing company, CFO, CIO / Consultant, Tech Sales, Retired after selling commercial property, retired after selling their farm, retired after selling land near a ski resort. 

Very few of these careers were planned based on a degree selected at 18 years old.  To be wealthy, you need to work hard, take risks, invest your money, be self-employed and luck helps.  

It's good coaching combined…

It's good coaching combined with excellent draft classes.  There are way more hits than you're mentioning.  In the last 3 drafts, here are players that are playing a significant role: 2023: Gibbs (RB), Jack Campbell, Sam LaPorta (TE), Brian Branch (nickel) 2022: Hutchinson (DE), Jameson Williams (WR), Josh Paschal (DE), Kerby Joseph (DB), James Houston (LB), 2021: Penei Sewell (OL), Levi Onwuzurike (DL), Alim McNeill (DT), Ifeatu Melifonwu (DB), Amon-Ra St Brown (WR), Derrick Barnes (DE).  That's 15 "hits" over 3 years with  basically no misses.  The guys not playing (8 others in the last 3 classes) big roles were drafted late or Hendon Hooker.  

For comparison, in 2020, we drafted Okudah #3 overall.  He played but way under expectations.  Swift #35 overall. He has talent but as a change of pace back at best.   Okwara at #67, he's on the roster and plays a role.  Johnah Jackson #75 overall, best player in the entire draft class, pro-bowl level guard.  Logan Stenberg (#121), Q Cephus (#166), Jason Huntley #177, John Penisini #197, Jason Cornell #197.  That's 1 huge hit with Jackson and 1 contributor (Okwara) - everyone else is off the roster even though they could all be in rookie contracts still.  

2019 has 0 contributors on the team.  2018 has 2 (Frank Ragnow/Tracy Walker), 2017 has 2 fringe contributors (Reeves-Maybin and Agnew).  There aren't many names that have left the team and been successful either.  Kenny Golladay had potential but is always hurt.  Of these 4 classes I'm seeing 8 guys contributing to a team in the NFL and 2 all-pro-level players in Ragnow/Jackson. 

That's 2 "hits" (calling Switt and Okudah hits) per class from 2017-2020 compared to 5 per class 2021-2023.

The Lions should keep getting better if we can hold on to our talent for once and continue solid coaching and development.    .  

My first thought is that the…

My first thought is that the "film" they are watching is actually of the Michigan sidelines and they don't want anyone else to know they also try to steal signs.  Players might carelessly watch that film in a hotel lobby or around friends who then blab to the media about what they saw.  I think Saban doesn't want the same stupid drama we're dealing with but he's doing the same/similar things.  He probably has that same file that was sent to the Purdue and TCU and that would be a bad look for them.

Put me down as a firm, "fuck…

Put me down as a firm, "fuck that" also.  He was wrong, he knew it and he risked the entire program for his own psychopathic reasons.  If we brought him back we would be encouraging more psychopathic behavior.  On a side note, are we positive that CS isn't WD?  WD was CS?  Finkel was Einhorn.   

I think you might be missing…

I think you might be missing who the "owner" actually is.  One of the many articles stated that videos were uploaded to an iCloud account.  If I film for you and upload a video.  Who owns it - you or me?  I don't think I need your permission to give my video to someone else or show anyone else where it was uploaded.  Further, you'd need to look at the iCloud terms and conditions to understand ownership.  If he made the folder publicly available, he may waive any data rights.  icloud may claim all data ownership rights for all I know.  Further, I'm sure Weiss signed an end user agreement about what he would and wouldn't do with data.  I doubt Scallions had his people do something similar.  Further, Further, I think you would need Scallions to sue over this (not UM).  It's all a long shot and not likely something that will be a problem for the PI or OSU.  

What kind of investment do…

What kind of investment do people want to see from USWNT or soccer in general?  I feel like soccer has been over-invested and are now burning kids out.  I have a 13 yo that has been playing for 10 years already.  The past 4 years has been 3 practices a week, 9-10 months of the year.  There is so much pressure on the good players, it's out of control.  There is a highly sophisticated network of teams and scouts starting at 10-12 years old.  We hold my daughter back from progressing to better teams because the commitment is not sustainable for the majority of families. My wife and I both have jobs and we have 2 other kids (who also play soccer).  To move to the next level (state-level players) would require a commitment of about 15 hours per week of practice (including travel time) and traveling for games 15-20 weekends per year.   My daughter is going into 8th grade and is also really good at basketball.  She's already leaning towards quitting soccer to play basketball in HS with her friends.  Even though she's never played organized basketball, I think she is more likely to pursue basketball in college than soccer.  So, in my opinion, soccer suffers from too much publicity (investment?) at a super young age.  Kids can play soccer way before any other sport but I think they leave it behind or burn out as they get older.  If you're good at soccer, you don't even play for your high school because it's not competitive enough.  I guess it's similar to EYBL except that is only 3-4 months of the year, mostly for HS kids, doesn't overlap with HS basketball season and is mostly funded/sponsored by Nike.  So I'm wondering, what do people think soccer should invest more money into?  

I did hear something whoosh…

I did hear something whoosh by.... Even if Phil left a pregnant girlfriend (certainly couldn't have been his wife) behind, that kid would be at least 24 years old.  

I think the request was to…

I think the request was to notify CJ Carr that... "to hell with notre dame." I'm certain that will still be applicable in 2024 when Carr attends ND.

They run a lot of 3-3-5 and…

They run a lot of 3-3-5 and some 3-4.  Their NT is a 320 lb freshman.  He's a high 3 star guy (545 overall) but can he really hold up against Olu?  I like that match up.  Their DEs are 270 and 280.  Their LBs are 220/230/245.  I didn't look at the two deep but I just don't see how that line can hold up against our line and RBs.  This has to be the biggest mismatch of all position groups.  But they're super fast (allegedly) so who knows.   

They didn't mention being…

They didn't mention being aggressive on 4th downs but they did say they that TCU is dedicating time in every practice for trick plays and will have several ready to go.  Maybe that means fake punts/FGs.  I do think they'll be very aggressive in anyway they can.  

I agree with your points…

I agree with your points about MGoBlog but it's still shockingly lazy on their part.  As a random fan who didn't feel like creating a blog, I've done a lot more opposition research than these guys.  It was so high level.  They don't mention a single player on Ms defense.  They only mention Edwards and McCarthy on Offense.  No mention of the O Line.  The only group to get some mention was the TEs to say they are physical.  They just didn't know anything about our team and seem to believe their team is super fast and in great shape.  I don't think they spent so much as an hour preparing for this podcast.  

31-21 (we score in garbage…

31-21 (we score in garbage time to make it this close)

24-13 

23-21 (the guy predicted a punt return TD for TCU)

34-27

I'm saying it won't incite…

I'm saying it won't incite our team to play harder because it's so generic.  Also i fucked up while typing in a hurry before a meeting.  My bad.

My biggest concern in this…

My biggest concern in this game is Duggan's legs by far.  Like you said, you can spy him but then you lose coverage or rush options.  Plus running QBs seem to be a decades long issue for us.  I foresee pressure destroying multiple plays only for Duggan to scramble for 10-20 yards.  

Interestingly, the TCU podcast barely mentioned this.  They seem most scared of our pass rush but seem to believe they are just so much faster on offense.  They thought Duggan would throw quickly and pick us apart with this extreme speed.  They also thought we would be the ones to get tired by the 4th quarter.  They all agreed without any doubt that TCU has better conditioning than M.  We'll see about that. 

In general, I'm happy to listen to content so this entertained me.  However, they never mentioned a single strategic thing.  It was all feelings.  They feel like we aren't taking them serious, they feel like we won't scheme anything specific for them.  They feel like they are faster.  They feel like their conditioning is second to none, they feel like our secondary can be picked apart (because OSU did it on their opening drive ffs) and so on.  Nothing about formations or specific players to target or avoid.    

PowerBI or Tableau can do…

PowerBI or Tableau can do this without any code. You'd almost have to do a sizing based on in-state ranking to really understand if we are recruiting well.  I'm sure we could get 25 kids from any state in the country if we wanted, the question is if we're going into states and getting top recruits.  Maryland has quite a few kids from Florida but I'm guessing I won't be that impressed if I look up the recruits.  

I don't think this is…

I don't think this is realistic.  Your assumption is that a player is pretty good (hence OSU is considering them) but not quite there yet.  Is that kid so desperate to go to OSU that he wouldn't go to Wisconsin, Florida, Oregon or whoever in that next tier?  Is OSU so full of money that they can buy their own class and still offer money at Kent St - more than a tier 2 team can offer?  These players would likely be high 3-star or 4-star players with a lot of d1 offers.   Would a kid accept less to sit at Kent St just for the chance to come play at OSU someday?  I don't think so. 

What might be more likely is a partnership (no NIL or money) between big and little schools.  OSU maybe helps the Kent St coaches with clinics, inside information at camps or lets Kent St workout at their facility - some benefit to Kent St.  Then, when Kent St finds an NFL player in the 2-star bin, OSU unofficially gets a first right of refusal to the player and has some NIL money ready to go.  Maybe they do this with the entire state of Ohio (Ohio, Miami, Akron, Cincinnati, Kent St, Bowling Green, Youngstown St, etc).  No NIL money until they arrive at OSU, just a friendly relationship and pipeline.  OSU could probably get 3 or 4 players a year at positions of need to help them.  Those Ohio schools would probably gain some recruits by being known as a feeder to OSU.  

That's kind of my point and…

That's kind of my point and my issue... It's easy to skip right over clear topics and posts that may be uninteresting to me.  This was about football and thus interesting but unnecessarily confusing.  Thus, it's harder to skip.  If it would have just said "CJ Carr announcing this week and expected to go to Notre Dame based on 90%+ crystal balls" I would have just skipped it because I've seen that headline several times today.  Anyway, I'm annoyed but it's not a big deal.  Slow work day i guess.  I'll go back into my mgovoyeur role now and stop posting for the year.  

I think we're being trolled…

I think we're being trolled also and possibly by the MgoBlog crew.  This is very similar to the spam posts "Top 10 ... wait until you see #3!!!".  If you want to see the list you have to click through a bunch of garbage and ads.  Same here.  I had to read 100 comments to figure out what the hell is going on.  It is also one of the most commented on posts since football season.  It's a brilliant insider troll job to drive engagement and it worked.  No traffic coming to the site in early summer?  Create a vague, secret-code post that just makes vague statements based on crystal ball activity to piss off 90% of the board and make the other 10% feel like they got some inside scoop.  

I logged in for the first…

I logged in for the first time in multiple years to express my annoyance at this post.  It doesn't actually say anything new but uses so much coded language that it's unreadable.  I hate to criticize someone who wants to post actual content but this is just garbage.  I've been a Michigan fan for almost 40 years and this is the first time I've ever heard Notre Dame referred to as Gary Jr.  That's just stupid and unnecessary.  You aren't (and we aren't) personal friends with recruits and coaches, please stop with all the made up nicknames and initials.  Anyone who can actually read this will learn nothing new so why write this way?  No links, no real content but if I want to understand what the f you're saying I have to dig through comments to decipher it.  At least a bad or off-topic post I can just scan past.  I read this hoping to get some insider tidbits but it's just coded roundups from other sources (that aren't even provided).  /end rant.  I'll logoff now for another few years.    

So are you saying that…

So are you saying that Howard must be paying players?  If not, your point doesn't make sense.  

Also, Model S and X sales…

Also, Model S and X sales are a downward sales trend, unless production capabilities are going down also.    

That video is accurate in…

That video is accurate in the math but inaccurate in the sense that they are saying it's fine for Tesla to not grow as quickly as everyone else.  The Tesla stock is getting huge multiples (Price/Earnings and Price/Sales) based on that huge growth rate.  It's fine to say it was never sustainable because denominators and numerators, but then the stock has to come back down to earth.   Here are some comparisons:

Stock  - P/E - P/sales

TSLA - 1000x - 200x

GM - 12x  -  0.6x

F - NA (losing money) - 0.4x 

This isn't meant to compare the stocks head to head but to show that the market thinks a $1 from TSLA is work hundreds of times more than $1 from GM or F.  That's crazy.  And, that's all after a 30% drop in TSLA stock price.  i don't think I've ever seen a company that is selling their product (i.e. not a pharmaceutical trading on pre-sales expectation) have a price to sales ratio that high.  

Just for grins here are other prominent price to sales numbers:

AAPL: 8x

Google: 7.5x

AMZN: 4x

GME: 1.5x

 

Why do you think 500 mile…

Why do you think 500 mile range will be a game changer?  How  many people drive that far in a day?  I think of it a lot like a cell phone.  I need it to get me through the day - anything less is unacceptable - but does it help me if it lasts 4 days?  Not really because I'm going to charge it every night anyway.  300 miles seems like enough for almost everyone.   Frankly, if you do see 500 mile ranges it'll translate to acceleration which will sell more than the range, imo.  

I get what you're saying but…

I get what you're saying but that is still really bad news for Tesla.  Tesla still loses money on every car it sells.  They need to keep expanding and they need to continue to be the cool choice.  To be clear, when i say Tesla needs I mean the stock needs.  The OPs last comment is critical here.  Tesla is only profitable because certain states require auto companies to buy credits if their vehicle sales don't meet certain standards.  Guess who has an excess of credits?  Tesla.  They sell their extra credits to other auto companies. That is literally their only profitable business (and now maybe bitcoin, i guess).  So, if other companies are able to grow their EV sales they won't need to buy credits which means Tesla is no longer viable without some sort of change: sales growth, profit margin growth, expense decrease.  The fact that they aren't growing nearly as quickly as the overall EV market is a bad sign.  Tesla makes a great product and I'm not questioning that Musk is a visionary but I could see a path to $0 for Tesla.  There are not many 1/2 trillion dollar companies that have such a clear path to $0.  All that said, I've never owned or shorted TSLA.  The fundamentals suck but I don't get in the way of momentum and memes.  

Yeah, RAs and the starting…

Yeah, RAs and the starting PG are pretty similar: both thankless, underpaid jobs.  But at least you are both treated like celebrities everywhere and girls line up to be with you.  The only thing worse would be having to be a star on the football team.  Seriously, I get it that basketball players could be paid but let's not imply it's a bad situation.  Almost every HS kid in the US would love to trade places with a star athlete.  He has an Ivy league degree and still chose to put himself through this hell.     

I said it in a longer reply…

I said it in a longer reply earlier but short interest is not something that can be tracked in real time.  Reporting of short positions is delayed by at least 2 weeks.  Further, short % is based on float which is not total shares, it's shares available for trading.  On WSB people are claiming they are asking brokers to remove their shares from the float (not sure if that's possible) but big institutions are definitely removing shares from float (no broker I'm aware of allows shorting GME right now).  So, same number of shares shorted divided by a smaller float = higher float%.  In short (pun intended), GME does not have a 200+% short interest. 

Well that's good, because a…

Well that's good, because a lot of them are going to lose it.  

I have a few issues with…

I have a few issues with your comments.  First, short interest is very difficult to track in real time.  What you're seeing is the number of shares reported short from about two weeks ago.  Here is what FINRA requires regarding short reporting: https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/regulatory-filing-systems/short-interest.  There are also ways to "cover" but not close a position that would get around this reporting making the numbers even less reliable.  Further, the float has gone done as institutions pull shares from the float. So, we know the float was nearly 100% last Monday and there is no new reporting since then other than a reduction in float.  Even if hedge funds took on new shorts, you wouldn't know it yet.  

"They're using bots to illegally buy and sell fractional $GME shares"  Really?  You know that?  35 million shares were traded today which is much lower than last week (i believe every day was over 100 million).  But with tens of millions of shares traded, you're claiming that bots trading fractional shares impacted the stock?  Do you have the order flow showing fractional shares?  Not the fact that 50 million buyers disappeared?  I'm not even saying you're wrong, just seems odd that you would know this. Those ladder attacks only work if you have a lot of missing buyers and the actual buyers entering are using market orders instead of limit.  I'm just not buying it.  A stock will tank when a bunch of shareholders do nothing but sit on it.  If they aren't buying then the bid falls and there is insufficient buyers to prop it up.  

My theory is that it's really hard to continue finding new buyers to pump up a stock at astronomical heights.  Combine that with any sane person who made life changing money to realize they have to exit at some point. Combine that with any ETF with trading goals that has to sell huge volumes of these stocks.  XRT has been getting a lot of press today but why would any large institution that invested in GME thinking it could turn around stay in right now? BX, Fidelity, Vanguard, Susquehana, Ryan Cohen, etc all made billions unexpectedly.  Why would they sit and hold?  They don't give a shit about the hedge fund vs reddit battle. 

I think this is a real thing that we're going to see again but it's a pyramid scheme.  Those that got in early made a lot.  Those getting in late are probably going to lose a lot.  If you can't find new buyers then it all crumbles.  The crazy part now is all the copycat attempts.  There were under 2 million members of WSB last monday.  One week later it's over 8M (plus millions more just reading without signing up, like me).  There are a lot of people just looking for a quick dollar and it's going to implode at some point (probably very soon).   

I'm going to keep watching but I think buying puts (or straddles) on the next hot stock is probably the smart move.  

 

I don't hear many say that…

I don't hear many say that it can't be pulled off.  of course it could happen.  I would argue it hurts college football.  Winning during the season suddenly wouldn't matter much.  It would hurt the value of all games during the season to possibly elevate a few postseason games.  I don't think any of the first round matchups would be interesting.  Maybe I'd glance at them but none are must watch.  For example:

#1 Alabama vs #16 BYU (might be the most interesting until Alabama gets up by 30 points)
#2 Clemson vs #15 Iowa
#3 OSU vs #14 Northwestern (i assume they'd move to avoid in conference rematches)
#4 Notre Dame vs #13 UNC
#5 Texas A&M vs #12 Coastal Carolina
#6 Oklahoma vs #11 Indiana
#7 Florida vs #10 Iowa St
#8 Cincinnati vs #9 Georgia

Nothing there really excites me.  The only way i'm excited is if all games are played on the same day with staggered starts.  I would dedicated a day and setup multiple TVs to watching all of that but I expect each game would get its own timeslot over 3 days and I probably watch parts of 2 or 3 games.  Assuming chalk on day 1, here's the next matchups:

#1 Alabama vs #8 Cincinnati
#2 Clemson vs #7 Florida
#3 OSU vs #6 Oklahoma
#4 Notre Dame vs #5 Texas A&M

Now i'm starting to get a little more interested in the matchups but again, I think they have to do all games on one day.  Otherwise it turns into the same thing as the bowl season and I didn't prioritize any games and didn't watch a single full bowl game.  I think conference championship games get cancelled and any P5 team with 2 losses is automatically in.  

Michigan has been bad for awhile but to me, the excitement of every single game having significant consequences makes it more exciting. It's like betting money on a game.  it changes how much I care each week.  I might be convinced to do a bigger playoff if the higher ranked team gets to play at home until the final 4 but I doubt that happens either.   

I think he's done a really…

I think he's done a really good job at Iowa St, but I'm kind of with the OP.  Why do people thing he's a no-brainer hire?  This year was great for them.  BUT... they have a potential 1st round QB and last year he was only 7-6.  Recruiting hasn't really changed from the historical norms at Iowa St.  He seems solid and I think i'd probably be happy with the hire, i just find it interesting that so many people think he's a great hire.  His time at Toledo looks good but it's no better than the years before him and the team got better when he left. 

So my question, what do we like about him other than the W/L at Iowa St?  Does he have an innovative Offense/Defense?  Does he adjust well?  What about his coaching is making him successful at Iowa St?  I fear he lucked into a really good QB and that can make a coach look much better than they are.  Does he have a history of finding and developing QBs?  Is there anything more than "he's winning at Iowa St?"

Are we really sold on…

Are we really sold on Campbell?  He's doing ok but he also lucked into an NFL QB (potential 1st round QB) from the #839th ranked recruit.  Campbell can get some credit for finding/coaching him but that's still a lot of luck.  Last year he was 7-5.  He had a pretty good year in a pandemic and suddenly he's our savior?  I felt much better about the RR and Harbaugh hires than Campbell.  His recruiting is about average for the school at both Toledo and Iowa St.  His time in Toledo was about the same as his predecessor and worse than his successor.  I don't know what's right but acting like this guy is an easy choice seems naive.  I am definitely not arguing for Harbaugh, I just don't get excited about Campbell.  

Ok, so please cite your…

Ok, so please cite your accurate description of UM academic standards for football recruits.  To date, I'm yet to see any actual evidence that we have a higher standard than anyone else when admitting freshman.  I'm aware of only two things: we don't accept many transfers because UM doesn't accept transfer credits from many schools and that sometimes if the AD feels like we are taking too many shady recruits he'll ask that we take less but never an example of how many is too many or what is shady.  

I wouldn't have said anything about this but I find it very ironic that you make a predictive post about someone posting something without evidence while pre-emptively declaring them wrong without any evidence.  

I honestly don't know if we have higher standards.  i hear it all the time but I'm yet to see any evidence.  I know Rich Rod was going to take Demar Dorsey if he could have passed the bare minimum NCAA requirements.  So it seems we have exceptions to any higher academic standard we are imposing.  

I kind of get it and agree…

I kind of get it and agree with this but at the same time, the good teams are still good with all these problems.  The teams that were messed up by COVID were teams with no depth or gaping holes in the roster.  If the top 25 was filled with strange teams and missing the perennial powers, I would agree but the top 25 (and particularly top 10) seems like every other year... no M.

You don't think popping…

You don't think popping Champagne describes something you are happy about? 

I like your kind of optimism…

I like your kind of optimism.  Getting a divorce? Yay! Now you know who you have direction on who you aren't banging anymore.  Dog die?  That's just an opportunity to get a new dog.  

Firing Harbaugh (while probably appropriate) is not a reason to celebrate.  He was a proven, big name coach who played at Michigan and was coming home to save us.  Now we're happy we have to fire him after a 2 win season?  I'll choose to approach both scenarios with minimal enthusiasm because either way, it's bad.  In the past 30 years of extreme dedication to UM football, I'm not sure I've ever felt worse about the future of the program.    

I'm not trying to give you a…

I'm not trying to give you a hard time or be critical.  I don't really disagree with anything else you've said.  i just thought it was kind of funny the stats you used in the 3 factors.  I find the Nuggets fascinating.  They can do a little bit of everything and can space the floor really well.  i think that spacing and speed really impacted AD last night.  His stat line looks pretty good but I think he was exhausted and 2 rebounds, 0 blocks is not great.  He felt like a non-factor for a lot of the game.  I've been extremely impressed with Malone and the Nuggets ability to adjust so far in these playoffs so i'm really excited to see what happens.  

It probably wouldn't get great ratings but to me, a Heat/Nuggets final would be fantastic. 

Anyway, I didn't mean any offense and I appreciate your contributions here.  

Your "3 factors" aren't…

Your "3 factors" aren't exactly impressive predictors.  Last night 2 of the 3 were basically at season averages.  Lakers average over 15 TOs per game and the Nuggets average 36.4% from 3.  2 out of 3 of your factors should happen on an average night which meaning you expect the Lakers to lose.  That doesn't even mention that the Nuggets who average fewer TOs than the Lakers had 20 TOs in this game.  

1. Why no link to the CDC…

1. Why no link to the CDC comment?  Frankly, CDC probably wouldn't know this.  They couldn't keep up with their own testing and quit in early April.  Every local test used to go to the CDC so maybe I'll leave the door open that you're referring to the CDC at this time. Today, most places have reliable tests.  Show me a link otherwise.  

2. "During a press conference for a teen death someone asked"  Super specific comment here.  What press conference?  Who was talking?  Who asked?  At a time in a place I heard one person tell another that you were wrong.  I guess we're at a stalemate.  I'm not saying it's perfect, I'm saying this is how deaths work.  You have to take a bit of an educated guess about what was the primary cause.  George Floyd absolutely is not counted as a COVID death.  This process is followed for Flu, cancer, aids, etc. What do you think the actual number of deaths due to COVID is?  

3. "How can a single person get tested 4 times and it literally be split down the middle 50/50?"  Well, it's actually quite scientifically possible.  You're only positive while shedding a virus.  People shed the virus at different times and it appears that it can start and stop and shed at varying rates.  To say it's just BS is also BS.  Is it perfect, certainly not but you used one example of a friend told me to determine that fruit can cause a false positive.  

You need better sources if you're hearing these things:

"We've been told we can get it from surfaces. Then told we can't"  I doubt you heard it that way.  It was probably presented as "not as likely as we thought" or something that might not be perfectly black and white.  

"We were told it's airborne, then it isn't"  This is not as obvious as you might think.  Airborne and aerosolized are debated terms in the medical world.  There isn't a widely accepted definition based on desiccation rates turbulent flows.  This determines if and how long and how far COVID can live as an aersol without a droplet. 10 seconds and a few feet?  Probably not an airbnorne disease, but if it can live for hours and blow in the wind like pollen then it's definitely an airborne disease.  COVID is closer to the short term here but it takes time and conditions of experiments can vary so results can vary.

"We've been told you can't get it from someone without symptoms, then that changed to we can."  This debate was settled extremely early on.  

I don't live in Michigan so I'm speaking more general.  I agree Michigan isn't in a terrible spot anymore but it was and the trend is going the wrong way.  

Your comments about masks are insane.  You think "we" can't critically think but then you say stupid shit like this.  You're scared of a mask but COVID is nothing.  Got it.  I can't believe there aren't more dashboards about all the people just falling over dead of carbon dioxide poisoning.  No one is saying to wear an N95 mask while running in 80 degree heat.  Sure that's probably bad - your China example appears to be kids in the sun/heat with N95 masks and sprinting.  They passed out and hit their head.  You don't need an N95 mask and you don't need a mask at all while running.  Wearing a cloth mask while walking through an air conditioned grocery store for 30 minutes?  No problem at all.  Seriously, are you telling me that you are too scared to wear a mask because you think you're going to get carbon dioxide poisoning?  How about, if you're feeling light headed, you lift up your mask and take a breath.  Seriously, this is internet conspiracy theory bullshit easily discarded by looking at hospitals.  Surgeons will wear masks indoors in poorly ventilated rooms for 24+ hours.  Why aren't they dropping dead of carbon dioxide poisoning?  

I like that you claim people don't know wtf is going on here but you don't really say anything and your only citations are terrible one-off examples or anecdotal things like I heard a guy say.  Well done.  And for the record, I definitely do not listen to any party leaders.  I tend to believe in science and I don't expect 100% understanding of a disease that no one was aware of last year.  It takes time and one study about anything should never be accepted as truth.  The only truth here is that people are dying at an alarming rate (not to mention the other societal impacts) and you don't need to be so afraid of a piece of cotton.  You'll be fine. 

 

Fuck, this person actually…

Fuck, this person actually lives in our society.  Let that sink.  I can't believe I have to answer this, but....

1. Show me any evidence of this.  First of all, testing is conducted by several different labs using proprietary processes in many cases.  Most universities created their own test.  A blanket statement that 50% of every lab is incorrect is just crazy.  Think what that would imply: every university, every hospital, every company, every state, every city would all be conspiring to do this for..... some reason despite the fact that it's crushing themselves financially.  Good luck organizing that kind of agreement.  

2. Also not true.  I've seen this a lot but not true.  Some deaths can be added later based on result but it would never be George Floyd or a car accident or anything else obvious.  This is just complete and utter bullshit.  Much like #1, think about how much coordination you would need from groups that would want to hide bad news.  What you're probably mad about is the fact that COVID doesn't directly kill anyone but this is true of most diseases like cancer.  You don't die of COVID, you die of the blood clot or the suffocation due to the lungs' response to COVID.  

3. a Google search tells me this claim comes from the president of Tanzania who made the statements at the beginning of May related to a batch of test kits his country received.  Where did those kits come from and does the US use any?  At best I'll believe Tanzania has a problem with their tests... but even that is unlikely after a few minutes of internet research.  I'll never understand people like you who refuse to believe 1000s of normal sources but see one random comment 10,000 miles away from a dubious source and suddenly it's gospel.  So fucking dumb.  

Also, the curve is no longer flattened, hospitals are full again (maybe not in MI) and deaths are climbing again.  Ccases take 2-3 weeks to start rising after the spread starts, death takes another 2-3 weeks.  Most places relaxed their rules around Labor Day.  2-3 weeks later is mid-June when shit got worse again.   2-3 weeks after that is about now and deaths are rising again toward 1000 daily.  I'll admit we still don't know a lot but that's not an excuse to believe bullshit and refuse sensible advice (like wearing a mask).  

 

They were damn close and…

They were damn close and only survived because other doctors/nurses/units/buildings were re-purposed as ICU doctors/nurses/etc.  Also, at that time all elective stuff was prohibited and several inpatient visits were sent to different settings, like IV meds given from home instead of a hospital setting.  Your attitude appears to be, I didn't die yet so I probably never will.  That's dumb.

I think the seat belt analogy holds up but I like smoking better.  Is it tyranny that you can't smoke cigarettes in restaurants anymore?  A shit ton more people are dying (and much more quickly) from COVID than second hand smoke.  Just wear the damn mask and stop bitching.  

If the death rate of COVID…

If the death rate of COVID was 1/2 what is currently, would I still support a mask?  Yes, absolutely.  Death is not the only consideration but let's start there.  Through 4 months about 130,000 people have died directly from COVID in the US.  Divide by 2, multiply by 3 and you're still looking at 195,000 deaths in a year and that's using numbers from a time when most diseases don't spread well (spring/summer).  Now a quick reminder about flu deaths: they are very rarely directly attributable.  Flu deaths are calculated after the fact by looking at macro death trends.  Death certificates very rarely say Flu.  The way flu deaths are calculated are having a negative impact on the current pandemic and seem to normalize death.  We really shouldn't compare the two.

The problem with COVID is that we know very little about it.  We don't know if people build immunity or for how long.  We don't have a vaccine. We don't have any reliable treatments. We don't know the long term impacts.  Flu has very known impacts and society feels better about accepting those risks.  COVID is doing things we've never seen.  I personally know two people, both under 50 that had COVID and recovered fairly easily.  Unfortunately they both have major heart problems now.  One had a clot and died, the other has severely reduced heart function and has a pacemaker now and can't function normally.   There is a lot of indication that high percentages of people have long lasting lung damage.  What impact will that have COVID requires much longer hospital stays in ICUs.  There are no major public events (concerts, sports, school, etc) and still ICUs are full in several areas.  If you have a heart attack or car accident you won't get into the hospital.  I don't care if 0 people died, I'd still wear a mask since ICUs are filling and hospital systems are a mess and it's getting worse and we have no plan.  The only thing that seem to help is staying away from people - face masks are a way to get closer to people without sharing as many germs.  Again, it's not just death, there are huge societal impacts.  You are already accepting risks that you can't define other than as immediate death.  

Let me ask you some questions, can you equate the inconvenience to any other life sacrifice you make?  Why is this a big deal to you?  Do you wear a condom?  That seems like a much bigger inconvenience.  Do you wear a helmet when biking/skiing/motorcycle, etc?  Do you believe in vaccinations?  Do you litter everywhere and tell the rest of the world to deal with the clean up? Do you ever consider your actions and impacts on the rest of society?  

And yes, I made personal attacks.  Maybe that's not cool but I'm so sick of this attitude.  You are saying it would take millions of US deaths before you'd be willing to make any personal sacrifice (which I don't even consider a sacrifice).  I find that disgusting.  If you don't care about COVID, do you care about the vast part of society that is taking a pay cut or lost their job?  Do you care that we are racking up trillions in debt to try to ease this societal pain?  Do you care about the doctors that took pay cuts and are working longer hours to try to treat something that they don't understand? Do you care about anyone or anything other than yourself?  It doesn't seem like it and therefore it is my opinion you're a terrible person.  Maybe you are very nice and give to charities, i don't care.  This is a much bigger moment and to flaunt your disregard for millions of Americans dying (your stated point of concern) and 10s of millions being devastated by disease and economic ruin just seems terrible to me.      

DualThreat, you are a…

DualThreat, you are a terrible person.  This is a short term issue (maybe a few years) that we need the tiniest of favors from you.  Your response is go fuck off and (literally) die.  I can't be inconvenienced in the slightest of ways.  This is not flu.  Flu is very well understood and hasn't spread out of control with no predictability.  And guess what, if I'm exposed to flu and around people with comorbidities, I do wear a mask and I make my kids where a mask.  Right now there are just too many unknowns and we're asking you to not be a dick for a few minutes of your day.  There are literally only 4 arguments I'm aware of for not wearing a mask and they all suck:

1. There are health risks.  Really, show me.  How many people have died from wearing a mask?  Why aren't surgeons who wear masks 10-20 hours straight dying?  You think it's more likely that you'll die from wearing a mask for 20 minutes at the grocery store than from COVID?  Why are you so scared of this non-existent risk but not COVID?   

2. They are uncomfortable.  So is being on a ventilator.  Get over it.

3. They look dumb.  Too bad.

4. I'm a dick, go fuck off and die. 

You seem to be hiding behind #1 (though you admit you're unwilling to defend it) and #4. 

Do you wear a seat belt, even on planes?  Why will you do that but not wear a mask?  Do you refuse to drive sober because only 10,000 people die from drunk drivers and because go fuck yourself?  There are hundreds of things that people do every day for the sake of trying not to kill everyone else.  Why is this tiny inconvenience the thing that you're willing to fight about?  

Ugh, that is not an…

Ugh, that is not an interesting thought at all.  In the US, 20,000 - 60,000 people die of flu complications in a typical year.  This year, in the last 3 months, 120,000 people have died directly from COVID.  That was while the country was shut down.  We're already seeing a spike in cases with minimal interactions around the country.  Surely there will be more than 200,000 deaths this year alone, probably many more.  Further, Flu deaths are calculated based on macro trends.  There aren't many deaths that show Flu on the death certificate.  COVID is directly killing people and we still don't really understand it.  If you apply the same methodology as Flu to COVID the numbers are probably doubled or tripled.  It's a fucked up disease that we still don't really understand it.  Have you ever seen a hospital pushed beyond capacity for Flu while all elective procedures are cancelled and all other physical injuries are way down?  It's a problem.  Don't be so stupid.  

have you tried day drinking?…

have you tried day drinking?  But seriously, 1. don't hang yourself - probably don't joke about it even.  PSA: my wife is a pediatrician and the majority of her patients are suicide attempts.  It's pretty terrible.  2. get them outside and get regular exercise.  Their little brains go crazy if they haven't burned off some energy.  Any time my kids start bickering I make them run to the corner and back.  It almost always works.   We go for a bike ride or run every day. 3. Give them structure.  We have almost given up on the home schooling but they have a couple hours to do every day or they don't get movies, candy, etc. I give them a lot of chores too, easy things that I don't care about like pick up pine cones, move rocks from here to there, clean your room, sweep the floor, dust bust something - they do a terrible job with all of it but they feel like they did something good.  

My kids are slightly older (4, 6, 8) but we've been letting them ride bikes/scooters with friends through most of this.  That interaction seems to really help them. They stay pretty far from each other and just race around in circles.  

Quarantine is very different depending on your household.  I'm exhausted every day dealing with kids and working from home.  I can't wait until we get back to normal so I can take a nap.  Also, just be glad you still have your jobs.  We feel guilty because we save way more now than normal times but i know a lot of people who are getting hammered with the slowdown.  

I'll also 2nd the bounce…

I'll also 2nd the bounce house.  My kids are a little too old now but we went through 2 bounce houses.  They each lasted 1.5 - 2 years before getting too many holes.  Bonus: when they're new they are strong enough to support mom and dad "wrestling".  

Yeah, i'm truly torn here. …

Yeah, i'm truly torn here.  Some of this behavior becomes illegal not just shady.  NCAA will have to force schools to a certain transparency standard and actually penalize violations.  Their rules are now in line with laws so they don't even have to investigate, just blast any school caught in corruption, bribery, extortion, etc.  Instant death penalty.  

I see a balance.  In the…

I see a balance.  In the pros an agent has to be certified, i'm picturing a model like that but with more an eye towards making sure a 16 year doesn't do something dumb.  Maybe it's 1 dedicated employee per school (but still reporting to NCAA, not the school) that reviews all deals.  I do see a need for the NCAA to play a bigger role than with the NFL.  The NFL is much more organized with contracts, agents and tampering rules.  NCAA has to do something to control it.  Kids could still have their own managers and wouldn't pay a fee to the NCAA employee in my scenario.

I agree with your second point that players shouldn't be thinking about who gets paid while making a play but that's something a coach will have to figure out.  It will happen naturally (good WRs score TDs and will get more money) so how can you control it?  If it's a problem, the coach can convince the booster to stop doing it. At the end of the day, boosters and coaches only want to win so they'll work this out.    

I'll throw out another complication: what if someone pays NIL money to get a player from a rival to sit out or tank?  Trevor Lawrence could have made $10 million to tank the national championship.  How do you stop organized gamblers from doing something similar?  

Here are the things I would…

Here are the things I would try to control:

No in game advertising.  Kids can't lift up their jersey to show Bangbros.com after a TD, they can't put an Arby's logo on their helmet, they can't wear their own equipment, they can't do publicity stunts on the sidelines etc.  

Somehow control backdoor payments from a school to a company.  How do you prevent UM from saying we'll wear Nike gear for free now with a wink and a nod that now Nike can offer bigger endorsement deals to our players to wear our shoes. The same could be said for any partnership.  We could allow Kraft to put a big noodle in the stadium and suddenly $1M is transferred to XYZ holding which hands out endorsement deals.  As I say this, I'm not sure if I care to stop this behavior.  I started this thinking it was a good idea based on the original ground rules that schools can't pay but this might be too big/difficult to stop.

Managers/agents.  Kids are going to get scammed by shady people.  NCAA should create a pool of controlled agents/managers that oversee every transaction.  This is to protect the kid, not to prevent him from getting paid.  Each agent would be an employee of the NCAA.  Schools may have to contribute to their salaries.  

Here is what I wouldn't regulate: people willing to give kids money to go to a preferred school or for being good at their sport.  If Stephen M Ross wants to buy a 16 year old's NIL rights for $50M up front, great.  Bob's cars wants to offer $10k per autograph per touchdown, interception, sack, etc.  Whatever.  MgoBlog wants to start a fund to host player AMAs, cool.  On a side note, how easy would this be to manipulate for money laundering?  I should stop watching Ozark.