Rankings Roundup after Week 10: CFP, AP, SP+ 

COMPARING CFP, AP, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)

OSU sits atop the CFP rankings for the second week in a row. FWIW, SP+ and AP both have UM/UGA as the top teams. It sounds like the CFP committee is just waiting for UGA/UM to play some competition, so this weekend will be an opportunity for both teams. 

For those that want to keep track, here is the number CFP top 25 teams by conference:

• SEC: 6
• Pac 12: 5
• Big 12: 5
• B1G: 4
• ACC: 3
• Independent: 1
• AAC: 1

SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)

Focusing on the SP+ …

Michigan and Georgia are the only teams in SP+ to field top-10 units in offense and defense. Going a step further, Michigan is the only team to field top-5 units in all facets of the game: offense (#5), defense (#1), and special teams (#5). 

If anyone is wondering about good matchups according to SP+ next week:

• #1 Michigan @ #5 Penn State
• #7 Alabama @ #25 Kentucky
• #24 Utah @ #9 Washington
• #11 Tennessee @ #21 Missouri
• #15 Ole Miss @ #2 Georgia
• #17 USC @ #4 Oregon

Meanwhile, in the B1G…

There’s been a lot written about Michigan’s weak-ass schedule. ESPN’s FPI ranks UM’s strength of schedule #111 up to this point, but #1 for the remaining 3 games. So obviously, the next three games are huge.

But while many people point and laugh at Michigan’s OOC schedule, I’d rather shift gears and talk about just how much the B1G fucking sucks. Yes, ECU and Bowling Green are bottom feeders, but UNLV would currently be a 4+ point favorite over 3 B1G teams according to SP+ and UNLV vs. MSU would be a statistical tossup (-2.4 SP+ rating for both). Outside of UM, OSU, and PSU, none of the other B1G teams can field even a top 50 offense. 9 of the 14 conference teams are ranked #80 or below in SP+ offense. 

So when people laugh at Michigan’s schedule, they are also laughing at you fellow B1G members. If any of you want to say Michigan plays a shit schedule, you are tacitly admitting that you are shit. 

A couple of weeks ago I made a tongue in cheek comment about how the B1G should rethink an unequal revenue sharing model. Now I’m not even joking. You want to block Michigan from making the CFP (for doing what it now appears you have been doing yourselves), but will gladly take half of the revenue that Michigan would earn for making the CFP? Fuck off. You want an equal share of the TV revenue when no one tunes in to watch your shitty games? Fuck off. 

Tell me why I’m wrong in the comments.  

TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 9

SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Standard interpretation applies:

• Top-right: Good at offense and defense
• Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
• Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
• Bottom-left: Not so good at football

Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean that category. For example, Michigan is 1.47 standard deviations above the mean from the average SP+ offense, and 2.3 standard deviations below the mean (this is good) from the average SP+ defense.   

Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, MSU, Nebraska, Northwestern: you are all shit teams. 

I’m planning on remaking this graph only for the teams that have won the CFP. It might be interesting to see where previous CFP champions have been situated.   

SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)

Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference. Notre Dame is now excluded from the ACC. Thanks for the comments/suggestions on this. 

And since people like to see it, here’s the graph after conference realignment.

Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, MSU, Nebraska, Northwestern: you are all shit teams. You suck so bad that the B1G could only get better by raiding another conference. Now go back into your holes and keep your mouths shut.

Anything else you'd like to see?

Thanks for reading.

Go Blue!