Rankings Roundup after Week 10: CFP, AP, SP+
COMPARING CFP, AP, AND SP+ (RANKINGS)
OSU sits atop the CFP rankings for the second week in a row. FWIW, SP+ and AP both have UM/UGA as the top teams. It sounds like the CFP committee is just waiting for UGA/UM to play some competition, so this weekend will be an opportunity for both teams.
For those that want to keep track, here is the number CFP top 25 teams by conference:
- SEC: 6
- Pac 12: 5
- Big 12: 5
- B1G: 4
- ACC: 3
- Independent: 1
- AAC: 1
SP+ OFFENSE & DEFENSE (RANKINGS)
Focusing on the SP+ …
Michigan and Georgia are the only teams in SP+ to field top-10 units in offense and defense. Going a step further, Michigan is the only team to field top-5 units in all facets of the game: offense (#5), defense (#1), and special teams (#5).
If anyone is wondering about good matchups according to SP+ next week:
- #1 Michigan @ #5 Penn State
- #7 Alabama @ #25 Kentucky
- #24 Utah @ #9 Washington
- #11 Tennessee @ #21 Missouri
- #15 Ole Miss @ #2 Georgia
- #17 USC @ #4 Oregon
Meanwhile, in the B1G…
There’s been a lot written about Michigan’s weak-ass schedule. ESPN’s FPI ranks UM’s strength of schedule #111 up to this point, but #1 for the remaining 3 games. So obviously, the next three games are huge.
But while many people point and laugh at Michigan’s OOC schedule, I’d rather shift gears and talk about just how much the B1G fucking sucks. Yes, ECU and Bowling Green are bottom feeders, but UNLV would currently be a 4+ point favorite over 3 B1G teams according to SP+ and UNLV vs. MSU would be a statistical tossup (-2.4 SP+ rating for both). Outside of UM, OSU, and PSU, none of the other B1G teams can field even a top 50 offense. 9 of the 14 conference teams are ranked #80 or below in SP+ offense.
So when people laugh at Michigan’s schedule, they are also laughing at you fellow B1G members. If any of you want to say Michigan plays a shit schedule, you are tacitly admitting that you are shit.
A couple of weeks ago I made a tongue in cheek comment about how the B1G should rethink an unequal revenue sharing model. Now I’m not even joking. You want to block Michigan from making the CFP (for doing what it now appears you have been doing yourselves), but will gladly take half of the revenue that Michigan would earn for making the CFP? Fuck off. You want an equal share of the TV revenue when no one tunes in to watch your shitty games? Fuck off.
Tell me why I’m wrong in the comments.
TRENDS (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Here are the weekly changes in the SP+ top 25 from the preseason through Week 9
SP+ OFFENSE AND DEFENSE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Standard interpretation applies:
- Top-right: Good at offense and defense
- Bottom-right: Good defense, below-average offense
- Top-left: Good offense, below-average defense
- Bottom-left: Not so good at football
Recall that these are standardized coefficients, not raw SP+ scores. Each team’s offensive and defensive score represents the number of standard above/below the mean that category. For example, Michigan is 1.47 standard deviations above the mean from the average SP+ offense, and 2.3 standard deviations below the mean (this is good) from the average SP+ defense.
Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, MSU, Nebraska, Northwestern: you are all shit teams.
I’m planning on remaking this graph only for the teams that have won the CFP. It might be interesting to see where previous CFP champions have been situated.
SP+ RANKINGS BY CONFERENCE (RAW SP+ SCORES)
Horizontal lines are the average (mean) SP+ scores for each conference. Notre Dame is now excluded from the ACC. Thanks for the comments/suggestions on this.
And since people like to see it, here’s the graph after conference realignment.
Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, MSU, Nebraska, Northwestern: you are all shit teams. You suck so bad that the B1G could only get better by raiding another conference. Now go back into your holes and keep your mouths shut.
Anything else you'd like to see?
Thanks for reading.
Go Blue!
November 8th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Hey, actual football discussion!
November 8th, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^
CFP committee clearly ranked Iowa to hedge their bets on having a ranked BTCG matchup. Because seriously, who would rank Iowa otherwise?
November 8th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Per the FEI metric, Iowa's ranked 24th-26th (depending on which of his 3 "resume rankings" you use) from a pure "wins and losses on their resume", margin of victory not considered, simply wins and losses.
I can see it. They're not great but the resume isn't hideous either.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
They win games, sure...but at what cost?
November 8th, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
Think of all the kids who will go on to survive cancer and will remember all the 9-7 games they saw while getting their IV infusions. It's beautiful.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
It's out of gratitude for showing Ferentz (fils) the door.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
You are not wrong. The rest of the B1G (outside of M, OSU, PSU, MSU, and may be Wis) don't seem to care much about being competitive. Their coaching hires seem to flame out more often than not.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:11 PM ^
Couldn't you say the same about the traditional bottom half of any conference, or even good teams out in the wilderness in recent years, like Florida, Auburn, USC? I mean, I bet Florida has had more coaches in the last 20 years than Illinois.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:35 PM ^
USC in the wilderness would still crush the bottom two thirds of the big ten...
November 8th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
Great information. Thank you..
November 8th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
you're not wrong.
This whole thing is going to make a lot of people more open to (/enthusiastic about) something like a minor professional league model where the top (40 in SP+) teams play in (four 10-team) divisions with a true playoff at the end.
Screw P5 conferences, screw NCAA. Without B1G allegiance, I don't have a lot of love left for the CFB model.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
There is already a totally sterile model like this. It's called the NFL. I don't watch college football because I want 40 teams in 4 divisions with a playoff. I watch because I want to see bands and see Air Force upset Lou Holtz.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
So go back to ten team regional conferences and pre BCS bowl alignments?
November 8th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
Yes please! Who needs a damn "undisputed" national champion anyway? Let everyone play whatever goofy bowl matchups exist, and then we can spend all offseason bickering about games that weren't played - the way God intended.
November 8th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
Bring back the Bluebonnet Bowl and it's comically short goal posts!
November 9th, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
I understand, but it doesn't change the landscape of how Things Actually Work.
If there's no NCAA, there's no reason (other than nostalgia) for maintaining the old ways. UM fans aren't going to stop watching if UM can't play NW or Rutgers any more. Any NW and Rutgers fans don't matter, because TV money won't work flow via markets like that in the future, and there's not enough fans themselves of those teams to justify the money they get.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
Thanks for your hard work Blue! You're not wrong about anything.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
Once we beat Penn State, they will no longer be considered a good team. It's just how it works for us.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
I'd be shocked if PSU is anything worse than #11 in next week's SP+ or FEI (they are #5 and #4 right now, for reference).
This deep into the season, it's just mathematics. Teams simply don't fall that far short of them plus all of their opponents (which for PSU, would be the likes of OSU, Iowa, Maryland, WVU) putting in terrible performances in that same week.
If U-M wins, it will absolutely be considered a good win. Being a road game also helps the narrative.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
That may be, but the media will still say they are not good. Any team Michigan beats is overrated and not very good, just the way it works.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
Let the BPONE go. Put it down. Relax.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
I’m relaxed have no negative expectations in relation to the team, I just know how the media narratives work.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
Let the BPONE go. Put it down. Relax.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
But, in OSU's case just 5 plays. Otherwise, they are on par with or better than UM.
November 8th, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^
But you tacitly admit that there is no point in even playing the game?
November 8th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
I'm glad to see that all the signgate news hasn't affected his attitude or tone at all.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
BUT WHO IS THE TOUGHEST
November 8th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
That's right - the Toughness scale was missing a marker! I wonder of OSU is still the tuffest tuff playing a tuff game?
November 8th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Is it possible that Rutgers took OSU's #1 toughness ranking? I knew the fighting Schiano's were tough, but didn't know they were that tough. Maybe they colluded to share the ranking after their game last week? If so, I am sure Rutgers will give it back to OSU before 11/25.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:17 PM ^
Are you kidding. That game was more like a slap fight.
November 8th, 2023 at 2:26 PM ^
But it was like the toughest of slap fights...
November 8th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
They were clearly the toughest for a half+
November 8th, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
Yeah, I had it in there as a playful jab at a respected conference rival. It just didn't feel right this week.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
I know the CFP doesnt matter till the final ranking, but Michigan will not be able to jump OSU until after beating them. If Michigan beats PSU and Maryland, the committee will just say "OSU beat the same teams." So Michigan is basically stuck at 3.
And Michigan sp+ is 30.5 overall, 39.9 offense, 9.7 defense, 0.4 special teams. Georgia last year was 37.3 overall, 42.3 offense, 6.7 defense, 1.7 special teams
Resume SP+ Rankings:
1. Michigan (9-0): +4.3
2. Ohio State (9-0): +0.3
3. Florida State (9-0): -0.7
4. Georgia (9-0): -1.9
5. Oregon (8-1): -3.6
6. Washington (9-0): -4.1
7. Penn State (8-1): -5.4
8. Texas (8-1): -10.7
9. Alabama (8-1): -11.2
10. Ole Miss (8-1): -12.5
November 8th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
Good for me... Just another reason to not slack off.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
I know the CFP doesnt matter till the final ranking
You answered your own question.
Where we are ranked now is good enough until then.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^
The poster didn't ask a question.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
If Michigan whomps PSU and MD, there's an argument to be made that Michigan won more definitively and looks a lot better than OSU. Not sure it would happen, but I think there's an argument to be made there if Michigan creams PSU in an away game while OSU struggled to beat them at home.
November 8th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
It would certainly bolster our computer ratings, but not sure what it would do in the eyes of the voters in the context of the full schedule. We still want notre dame to keep losing - because it would hurt osu and b/c they are notre dame.
November 9th, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
The biggest impact to OSU will come from losing to MSU.
November 8th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^
I disagree. The only reason OSU is ahead of UM and UGA is resume (and the ND one is looking weaker). If UGA and UM both win against good teams (UM being on the road), I think both jump OSU. Why would you rate OSU any higher?
November 8th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
I hope that revenue (not) sharing is a point of contention in the pending lawsuit against the B1G. Keep the revenue. Hang the banners. Fuck whatever anyone else thinks about it.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^
Wow, SP+ has both Michigan's offense and defense above Georgia's.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
FEI is, as always this year, a little different. I'll put the numbers in this time to show how big the gaps are.
- Michigan 1.53
- Oregon 1.26
- Ohio State 1.15
- Penn State 1.03
- Georgia 1.02
- Kansas State 0.99
- Florida State 0.99
- Texas 0.98
- Washington 0.95
- Alabama 0.95
Offense:
- LSU
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Washington
- Georgia
- USC
- Liberty
- Kansas
- North Carolina
- Oklahoma
Defense:
- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Iowa
- Texas
- Utah
- Alabama
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Clemson
- Kansas State
Liberty is getting into inverse-Iowa territory, more extreme than USC. And only one team is top-ten on both sides of the ball (K-State is close).
November 8th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
Wow, Michigan is the only team on the lists in both offense and defense, and that is at the top.
The big surprise is that we are well ahead of USC, Washington, Oklahoma, etc. on offense. And you know we left at least 2 TDs per game on the field by not playing starters in the 4th quarter.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
Connolly's old website is gone and I don't remember precisely what his rule was, but charting stops when the game's out of hand so those fourth quarters never even happened as far as FEI is concerned.
I think that's one of the reasons his system has ranked us so highly all year. His computer is the only one that's aware that we're calling off the dogs in the third quarter. Scores-based systems like Massey don't even have us at #1.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:22 PM ^
SP+, as I recall, significantly lowers the weights for "garbage time", although that weight is not 0.
FEI weighs "garbage time" as zero --- in the Purdue @ U-M game: excluding U-M's kneel-down at the end, "garbage time" was defined by FEI as each of Purdue and Michigan's last 2 possessions.
November 8th, 2023 at 1:38 PM ^
In a sense, even the scores-based metrics do this. There's no difference to Massey between 45-0 and 52-0--the probability that the winning team is superior is close to 100% either way.
What's different about FEI is that it's a per-possession metric so the garbage-shortened games reduce the denominator.
November 8th, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
You are correct in the 1st paragraph.
I think what FEI does is it weighs each "non-garbage time" possession equal when considering the game as a whole. So when considering the season as a whole, the result of an individual possession in a 9-possession game matters more versus an individual possession in a 15-possession game (67% more, to do the math).
One goofy thing about FEI --- via the way they define "non-garbage time" (link at the bottom), if Purdue had tried an on-side kick with 0:10 left and recovered it, Purdue & Michigan would have had one more 4th quarter possession that would have been "non-garbage time." Which, well, not really. Any on-side kick wouldn't have mattered.
All of that has a very marginal impact on the final results. But I'm a data analytics guy, and it sounds like you understand them too, so I find even the minutia interesting to talk & think about.
November 8th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
nice work!
In light of the "let's leave the Big Ten" comments we have all heard around here lately, I'd be curious to see you plot a couple of hypotheticals on the SP+ Conference graphs.
- If you remove Michigan's score from the Big 10, what would the Big 10's mean SP+ score be?
- If you added Michigan's score to the ACC, what would the ACC's SP+ mean score be?
- If you added Michigan's score to the SEC, what would the SEC's mean SP+ score be?
Would be curious to see how much value Michigan would bring other conferences in terms of the overall quality, as anyone adding Michigan would likely renegotiate their TV deal and use Michigan's star power as a reasonable reason for negotiating a higher payout.