Random Basketball Rumblings (feel free to add insight/thoughts)

Submitted by MaizeBlueA2 on October 1st, 2021 at 12:05 AM

Based on comments from the major blog sites, insiders, etc. - below is what I've been able to compile (without stealing/sharing any premium content).

Overall: This team has a real chance for another deep tournament run, it's ceiling may be higher than last year's squad (I personally don't believe it is)...but it's floor is a lot lower.  Last year's team had so many known quantities (Livers, Wagner, Brooks, even Brown).  This year's team has crazy potential. Prediction, a much lower seed, but they get just as far as last year's squad. A team that peaks late.

Per multiple comments, the thing that makes it more likely that this group reaches its potential...is the culture.  Juwan Howard continues to build on Beilein's culture, but this is officially HIS team.  There are still holdovers, but this is 100% Juwan's program now, while before he was really good (and patient) at gradually building the program he envisioned, never tearing down the old, but slowly adding his style, approach, values, etc.

Eli Brooks is the unequivocal leader of this team and his presence cannot be understated.  He is also a huge reason this team can reach its full potential. 

Dickinson: Working on his right and extending his range. The range seems to be coming along faster, he's just not as comfortable with the right hand as he should be.  He's gone after this year, but the right hand may be a reason he should stay (he is more Garza/Kaminsky, but he thinks he's an NBA player now).  That said, his game doesn't necessarily translate to the NBA, but right hand or not...he's still the biggest man on the floor 9 times out of 10 in college.  He's going to be fine, he's improved, and from what I've read, his biggest improvement is his conditioning.  It'll be needed, because it's small ball behind him.

Johns: A lot of predictions from national pundits for him to be the breakout guy, but I think that's just lazy to be honest. The Michigan insiders all seem to agree that he's pretty much the same player he was last year...for better and for worse.  He's a year older and right now he's the starter, so his biggest improvement is his confidence...he's a leader.  He's a consistent outside shot away from being lethal, but he's still on fire one day and ice cold the next (summer workout notes, they've only had a day of practice so nothing from that).

Houstan: Silky smooth, lights out shooter, "sneaky effective driving the ball"...because he has a nice pull-up mid-range shot and he is also big enough to shoot over guards that get switched onto him.  His game has a maturity to it, he knows what he wants to do when the ball is in his hands.  Right now, biggest weakness per two insiders is his defense.  Capable, but no where close to Wagner, the guy he's replacing.

Brooks: All-around game continues to improve, will have a long career playing pro basketball if he wants one (not necessarily in the NBA).  In fact, one person wrote that he's the perfect international player, he's like one of those annoying effective guards from Spain or Australia that would torch Team USA for 30+ in a loss.  That tells me he's just efficient, nothing stands out, but he will make you pay if you give him space.  By far the heart and soul and leader of this team.  Huge leader all summer.

Jones: Early reports had him MUCH better than Mike Smith, it sounds like that isn't necessarily the case...it just depends on which Mike Smith you're talking about.  Jones is a different kind of player all together, he can play "bully ball" and he likes to attack downhill.  His outside shot is good enough, but it's not Smith when Smith got hot.  His game is much more of an NBA game, which suits Howard's style of play.  Defensively, he's "fine," but by all accounts he has another level that he has not tapped into.  The coaches have to unlock that part of his game and infuse a little Chaundee Brown into him (which sounds like most NBA players).  Last comment, sounds like there's no ego.  He's all-in and a leader on this team with Brooks.

 

-----Reserves-----

Diabate: A 2-year guy unless he's just insistent on the NBA.  "A guy that could go 15-20 after 2 years or 5th after 3...will likely take the 15-20 and Michigan fans will be ridiculous about it (like normal)."  EVERYONE says he's really limited offensively outside of lay-ups, lobs and put-backs.  Defensively he's not there because he's learning, but the light will go on at some point and he'll be closing out games while Hunter sits (offense/defense).  Someone mentioned Caris LeVert.  Caris was all over the place his freshman year, it wasn't until the tournament where things started to slow down.  Diabate doesn't seem that far behind, but it may take the non-conference schedule for him to find a rhythm defensively.  When he does, Johns better watch out.

Williams: Will be the most improved.  The Caris comparison applies to him as well.  He was a mess most of the regular season, just a ball of energy, but moving way too fast.  It's starting to slow for Terrance and he looks like a potential starter.  "He's basically Johns, right now - today, without the same experience, size, and strength. But he's improving while Johns looks a lot like he did last year."  Sounds like he's taken on the energy role that Brown had last year.  Should see plenty of time (although same for Diabate) when Johns is playing the 5.  Has versatility, plays the 3 as well.

Bufkin: Rivals put a write-up on him today, I won't reference it.  But up until this point, all signs pointed to him being extremely versatile and rivaling Houstan for most ready to play right now.  He can play three positons, but he's mostly an off guard behind Brooks.  That said, there has been talk of him playing some PG or splitting the second team PG duties (at times) with Jackson.  Just as Brooks and Jones do for the starters.  He's capable to be a big PG down the road, though it's not the plan right now.  Words you hear to describe him are: "smooth," "high IQ," "natural," and "will contribute."

Jackson: If Williams isn't most improved, that's only because Zeb beats him out for it.  Jackson will be in the rotation, he's solidified that.  The comments on him seem to be that his game has "matured."  Less turnover prone, he understands the offense better and how he fits within it.  He might be used in a "microwave" type of role because his mentality is naturally to attack.  Shot is better, but still inconsistent.  Gets to the rim more than he did last year, still could use another 10 lbs.  Likely a 4 year guy.

Collins: This is where things start to drop a bit.  Collins seems like the natural backup PG, but he's not there yet.  Right now you're more likely to see Brooks or Jones stay in and Bufkin or Jackson come in.  If both Brooks and Jones are out...it's still Bufkin and Jackson right now.  Collins isn't a big guy, but he can be "a little bulldog" in the paint.  His shot isn't good enough to warrant a ton of playing time and he's not an all-time great perimeter defender like X/Zavier Simpson.  He feels like he'll be last year's Zeb Jackson.  Some DNPs, more time during the end of the year.  Already a candidate for "breakout player for 2022-23."

Tschetter: A lot of hype on him early, but it's started to die down.  Honestly, I wonder if some of that was country white kid comes in with no expectations, has some real game, gets hyped.  Or maybe it's just because he was the lowest rated recruit of the bunch.  Then again, some of the hype was from the coaches, Martelli in particular.  Either way, he surprised folks early and he'll play this year.  The kid can shoot.  Someone said he reminds them of "that one kid we had that was solid and then transfered to Maryland." (Evan Smotrycz)

Barnes: Had the toughest transition, was the opposite of Tschetter.  Per Rivals, it took him the longest to get settled in and comfortable.  However, he's already improved and finding his place.  Right now, not likely to play a ton, but he's a 4 or 5 year guy that could start for 2.  May have a Johns-like trajectory.  Not a lot of info on his game.

Nunez: Same player, but much more famous, right now is the best shooter on the team.

Howard: A great kid, clearly loves the weight room (?!), and not a pain in the ass for being the head coaches kid.  Nothing on his game, but you have to assume he's improved and could be called on for a few minutes if you had to break the glass for an emergency.

 

If I had to guess...I'd say #5 seed, bow out in the second weekend of the tournament.  Though I wouldn't be surprised for a second if the talent all comes together and this team is in the Final Four.  Potential is there, I just think it's too early to tell.

outsidethebox

October 1st, 2021 at 9:46 PM ^

Absolutely. He is, already, an excellent floor general with outstanding vision and a great understanding of the game. He is a physically strong and dynamic player-with his outside shooting being the only question mark. I do expect his shooting to improve nicely because of the better looks he will get due to the talent that is going to surround him. Jones and Brooks are going to make life hell for the opposing backcourt-on both ends of the court. He may not be flashy enough to get enough votes but I am positive that he will be a huge difference-maker. 

Additionally, I was thrilled to see MattEM's report on Terrance's 3-point shooting. I have always been intrigued by his potential and would not be shocked if he morphed into a Livers type player-and maybe even better. He is a grinder who knows how to play the game-is always in the right place. This could be a great boost to how this team plays early on...and then just keeps getting better. 

I can't wait to see how Juwan and crew put the pieces of this very talented puzzle together. And if Houstan can find enough defense and Diabate can find enough offense the Michigan faithful are going to have a whole lot to cheer about. 

UMfan21

October 1st, 2021 at 9:20 AM ^

If Zeb's shot still isn't falling that doesn't bode well.  He was supposed to be a scorer, but he couldn't hit the broad side of a barn last year.

TeslaRedVictorBlue

October 1st, 2021 at 9:32 AM ^

Duno. He seemed to play at his own speed, not as part of the offense. he had a couple late performances that showed he has potential to stick - vs everyone thinking last year he'd transfer out. I think he just played to his own tune and not with the flow of the offense. I think he got hyped and started jacking up shots. If he calms that down, im sure he's serviceable to play. He's very lanky though, and i dont know how that translates to being able to play defense on B10 guards.

I cannot believe that Nunez is still here. kudos for him for sticking it out and fighting. Best shooter on the team does not translate to on-court play.. so.. what do we do with him? try again?

Ziff72

October 1st, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^

No way this team is a #5 seed.  I liked the balanced info/review but this team is going to overwhelm teams. 

The key to this almost nobody will be able to stop Dickinson 1 on 1.  He is easy to shut down right now but it requires a team strategy focused on it.  We have the weapons to punish it. 2-3 seed at worst unless injuries ravage the team. 

MNWolverine2

October 1st, 2021 at 9:53 AM ^

Early season expectations are way too high for this team (from the fanbase).  This board is going to freak out when we start 3-2 or something like that.  I remember when we were undefeated and lost to MN las year, you would have though we were going to miss the tournament reading this board.

This team will improve throughout the season though, just like the OP said.

MGlobules

October 1st, 2021 at 10:19 AM ^

This is the kind of meaty, gossipy, comprehensive stuff I'm always wishing I obtained from UM Hoops. Thanks much--I am itching for the season to start. 

I think you're right with your assessment of M's ceiling and floor, but much of this is very positive news. I'm just a little disappointed that the early exuberance about Jones has slackened. 

Piston Blue

October 1st, 2021 at 10:20 AM ^

I might be too high on the team, but I think they're a top 10 group and have a great chance of grabbing a 1 seed again. The thing that stuck out to me last year was the level of organization (both on offense and defense) that can probably have some attribution to the players' experience level, but mostly is attributed to coaching. In my view, as long as Juwan has the talent, there's no reason to fear that his teams won't succeed.

Kevin14

October 1st, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^

Thanks for the primer.  Really well written and insightful.  Great to get an update on the bball squad, when most of my focus has been on football.  

njvictor

October 1st, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^

 his biggest improvement is his confidence...he's a leader

This was always Johns biggest thing though. The only thing preventing him from being a solid contributor is his confidence. And if he's more confident, then the sky is the limit

outsidethebox

October 1st, 2021 at 10:09 PM ^

Johns was very poorly coached in high school. He did whatever he wanted to-and did okay, even quite well, because he was physically talented. But Brandon hardly played defense and virtually never boxed out for rebounding. So his transition to the college game, where every one was as physically gifted as he was, was quite the learning curve. 

uncle leo

October 1st, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^

I appreciate all the insight.

I just don't see this team as high as a 5 seed and I don't think their floor is "much lower than last"

They are still returning a lot of experience with Brooks, Dickinson, and Johns (speaking just of the starters) and are adding an incredible amount of youthful talent.

If they end up as a 5 seed, IMO, that's a MASSIVE disappointment. 

Zoltanrules

October 1st, 2021 at 11:11 AM ^

Let's let them play a few games. The B10 will be very tough for everyone especially with fans back in arenas.

Would be disappointed if this team eventually wasn't a top 4 seed come March.

Really like our crazy talent, team attitude, coaching staff, and depth including an experienced guard duo.

buddhafrog

October 1st, 2021 at 3:04 PM ^

This is a very good point that I haven't heard anyone discuss. 

Compared to last year with no crowds, some teams this year will be better/worse depending how they mentally can handle away games.

Last year UM had an advantage often because their team was so tight, they bench was always rocking. This was talked about a lot last year and I think it really helped the team, especially early in the season.

Not sure, but I hope that same team closeness, the culture that every player and coach talks about in every interview, will make UM a team that again has advantages over the opponent. We don't yet know how these players/coaches adjust to hostile or friendly environments.

But I see some Bill Laimbeer in Hunter Dickenson. I can't wait to see how he reacts at Breslin Center. It might be the funnest game he ever plays. I think his attitude will help the entire team.

I believe Eli Brooks to be the most chill and focused player to ever wear the Michigan uniform. He is ice and intelligent. Never gets fazed. Knows what to do. Knows who needs to adjust and has the communication and leadership to get his team to do this. 

lhglrkwg

October 1st, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^

I don't really know what I'm talking about, but it feels like while the floor is for sure lower this year, the ceiling is title contender. With Eli and Jones in the backcourt, that feels like the kind of experienced guard line-up that can do a lot of damage come tournament time. If I had to bet a dollar, this team starts slow but is HOT by February

Gulogulo37

October 1st, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^

Great notes, but I'd disagree about the lack of known quantities. For one thing, Brooks is still on the team and is probably mostly the same guy. Projections for Chaundee worked out but were projections since he had a different role at Wake. Wagner is a bit of a mixed bag. Probably worse offensively than we hoped for but better defensively. Dickinson seems like a known quantity. Improved upon last year which is already a great floor. Diabate as a guy who jumps out of the gym but lacks offensive skill set. Brooks is a given. Jones seems like a high floor guy. Johns is Johns.

SD Larry

October 1st, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^

Great write up.  Personally think higher than five seed and a shot at final four.  Yes we lost a lot with Franz,  Isaiah, and Chaundee leaving.  However, we gained a lot, have really good players returning that will be even better, and a Coach and staff who really know what they are doing in developing talent.  Looking for HD have an amazing year.

BBQJeff

October 1st, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^

They have a ton of very young talent.  They also have a mix of veteran players which will really help with the younger guys.  

I'd say lower floor with higher ceiling.  

buddhafrog

October 1st, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^

I regret that I have but one upvote to give.

MICHIGAN BASKETBALL!!! So hyped. We are so lucky to be in this moment - the anticipation compares to the Championship, Fab Five, and Beilein's best teams. There is so much to enjoy about Juwan and the players on this team. Will be fun to see them try to reach their potential.

buddhafrog

October 1st, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^

Some of the most exciting info here are about TWill and Jeb Jackson. Last year those were our lower middle-tier players - you usually felt a little anxious when they were on the court. But they usually didn't hurt the team much and occasionally helped the team. To hear their improvement raises our floor.

Cmknepfl

October 1st, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^

Good write up, but I am way higher on this teams potential.  I get it Wagner, Livers, and Brown are gone.  But when you have a 1st team all american and a senior like Eli the sky is the limit.  That being said its impossible to tell what will happen, but we can tell from JH so far that yes his culture should take a team with this much talent and take them to top 5 territory.