OT: Stocks Talk
Figured with everything going on in the world people are paying more attention to the stock market than normal. This is something we can start to have a discussion on once a month, and we can look back at how we are doing. I tend to invest mostly in small to mid-sized bio pharmas and tech.
For this first post, I'll take a look backwards with two categories and forward with the all important stock market premonitions!
1) What have been your 3 biggest hits over the last 2 years?
MDCO (average of ~$25, got BO at $85)
INSG (average of $3, still own most of the position at $11.50)
VBIV (average of $0.80, still own most of the position at $6)
2) What is/are your biggest regrets of the last 2 years?
Sold TSLA at $550 after buying below $200
Sold SHOP at average of ~$400 after buying at $40 (this one still hurts a lot)
3) What are your favorite stocks going forward and why?
VBIV - Think this will be bought out (most likely by GSK, but many suitors) and having the best eVLP vaccine technology will be super valuable no matter if they discover anything to do with Covid-19. Final target of $12+
BCRX - I'm not optimistic on a vaccine any time soon for Covid, and in my opinion this company is about to release information about having the best antiviral (Galidesivir) to fight the disease. It is much better than Gilead's Remdesivir mainly due to a low toxicity (due to unique bonding) which allows for the loads to be optimal to get quick T-cell response. Currently at $5, I think the risk/reward here is amazing.
Overall, I think most of tech is over-priced at the moment, and therefor have lowered most of my positions there. Let's see what the Mgoblog community thinks and hopefully help each other make some money!
Keep this fun please! No Politics!
I recently hit big on SHOP- Bought at 150ish, sold at 920. Pretty elated with that one. Biggest loss was also my very first stock purchase, EXPR, Express clothing, which I hold onto to remind me that you don't just get stocks because you like their product lol. Completely lost my ass on that one.
I'm still very new to the stock game, and very young, so I tend towards long term safe bets. Really keen to get in on some biotechs for the duration of COVID, but haven't had the time to put in research necessary to feel safe doing so.
i have a tiny amount of founders' shares in 4 companies. i don't want to say its 'throw away' money, but if any of the 4 hit (i think there's a real chance for one, decent chance for another, and the other two, who knows) it will be like truly found money.
Your biggest regrets were a roughly 200% gain and a 900% gain. More like the biggest humble brag of the last two years.
I was going to say the same thing.
I'm reminded of this guy I knew a few years back who, when asked about the snow conditions on his ski trips, said "A foot of fresh powder every day!" no matter where he went or what time of the year.
Yeah should have put in some losers...that’s my bad but those two definitely hurt. See above. Lost my ass on an ETF that crashed, and then to add another, still bag holding ADMA (medical stock) from $4.50
One time I put a bet on Michigan versus Indiana and Karan Higdon bounced it outside for a long touchdown and I made a bunch of money and then I used it to buy my girlfriend a nice present for her birthday and then I broke up with her like 2 months later and then I was like what the fuck did I even buy that gift for and then I was like well I suppose I did love her at the time.
Long story short, I should've shorted that stock.
Gotta be a country music song in there somewhere. Did your dog die too?
Lost his truck on top of it all
Bought Moderna and Novavax in late February, then sold after I doubled my money. "How high can this go?" Well........
I have done well with SKYY and IGM calls. I also bought some REITs on the verge of death and am slightly up on those.
Doing ok with WES and MPLX too.
Bought some Draft Kings and am down there. Same with Raetheon.
Winning with MRVL. Break even on SPG. Ahead on Ford (in at 4)
Hmmm like SKYY a lot, solid etf to buy calls on too didn’t know you could. Thanks I’ll look into this
Got in with illumina awhile ago at $40. It’s at a all time high right now of $400 after some ups and downs. They just released a batch Covid test that can process 3000 samples in 24 hours so there still may be some quick growth on top of their long term outlook.
NVDA is biggest hit - Bought at $209 per share during COVID scare on 3/23, now at $420 on 7/20. Over 100% gain in 4 months.
Biggest regret - Not buying Boeing and Netflix in late March. The airlines had spooked me, but should have know Boeing had bottomed out. They are "too big to fail" given their government work. And thought Netflix was too high back then - I was wrong.
Best bets right now - XOM and CVX. Oil will go up sometime, and those two have strongest balance sheets.
Crazy out there in market, and you have to be careful. But still opportunities. And remember - "Pigs get fat - Hogs get slaughtered."
CRSP
bought at 20, now at 95, think it could way higher
regret:
Sold Apple long ago.
My biggest regret is that I work at a firm that makes trading very difficult. It's not worth the headache so I don't participate. We have big bankruptcy and M&A groups and get an email every time we get a new client with explicit trading bans. Too bad I can't put that information to good use.
My firm has a categorical ban on trading in equity securities, which is probably good for my financial health!
Yeah, I don't think I'd be any good at picking anyways, but it would fun to play around with a few grand.
Do you get conflicts emails every time a new client comes on? I feel like that would just destroy my inbox.
Stocks talk..
Bonds walk?
Three biggest hits
- I've had AAPL & AMZN (and MSFT) for a couple of years, so these have been the top performers.
- I got in on Peloton at 36, and it's at 64 now. (Pretty small position, i just put down what one would pay for a bike to see how long it would take to earn a bike's value.)
- I usually don't try to time the market, but I bought and sold LMND the same week because that got too volatile.
Biggest regret - I bought SQ at about 100, and took the free fall all the way down to 39 bucks, only to make it back to 90 and take that loss. It's now at $128.
Future - not really sure but I plan to keep AAPL, AMZN, and MSFT for the long haul. If/when Airbnb goes public i'll definitely take a long position on that one too.
For various reasons, I had money all tied up during the bottom out/initial recovery into May. Since about mid-May, I’ve been investing again. I missed most of the huge rally, but still did meh with about 7% in returns.
Biggest winners: Etsy. Bought in around $80 and watched it go up to almost $115 before last week’s fall. I still think it’s got a bright future, so I’m going to hold on to it. Currently it’s at $107 or so.
Fiverr has also been a huge winner. Like Etsy, it has taken off in the last couple months.
JD.com is my other winner. It’s a smaller Chinese Amazon/Alibaba but with a very good logistics network.
Biggest losers: Planet Fitness and Dave & Busters. Bought both right as things were on the up and up. Both have disappointed tremendously - mostly due to COVID’s resurgence. Bought PLNT at $70 and got out when it hit $55. It’s stayed around there ever since, but I think it drops a bit further. If it gets below $45 I may try again. Dave and Busters has been pretty flat. Really not too bad with I have only lost about $1k with them so far, and I’m holding on to them.
Current losers that may be worth it in the long run: Boeing and Raytheon. Bought Boeing around $200 and it’s been hovering around the $175-190 mark for weeks it seems. However, as mentioned, they are too big to fail probably. I got Raytheon for $67ish and it’s hovering around $62. I think both of these stocks rebound strong eventually.
All of my others are relatively flat. Sold all my airlines and casino stocks back in late May and made a nice profit. Sold off Google last week. Maybe a dumb decision, but I feel that I could make a better return on another stock at 1/10 the price over time.
Stocks I’m avoiding: Tesla and Netflix. Do I have regrets? Nope. I think Tesla is waiting to pop and I didn’t want to be always looking at it in a misguided attempt to time it which I’m sure I’d mess up. Netflix to me is not worth it. It’s in an increasingly competitive field, and can only grow by adding customers since they can’t charge much more. You essentially have to bank on India and China subscriptions floating them I think.
My three biggest hits in my portfolio right now:
NXPI bought at 33, now at 123 (they make NFC chips that go in smartphones)
AAPL bought at 151, now at 393 (Apple--could not believe it was trading so low at the time)
NVDA bought at 173, now at 420 (Nvidia--I'm keeping an eye on them to see what they do with their next GPUs compared to AMD)
Biggest losers:
NPTN 9.2, 8.7 (Neophotonics--they make optical switches and routers, part of the fiberoptic internet backbone. I'm a bit disappointed here)
F 8.6, 6.6 (Ford--meh)
TRTC 5.5, .09 (TerraTech--I picked the wrong vertically integrated cannabis operation)
I've been playing options as long-term valuations aren't sustainable here IMO. My best swing trade so far is AZN calls I bought for .40 that I flipped for 4.80 this morning. I've also hit big on a few way out of the money options this year due to all of the volatility. I did not partake, but trade of the year so far has been Overstock (outside of someone who shorted the crash).
Great call on AZN. I tend to agree that long-term evaluations have rebounded way too fast for the current market outlook.
I have a trader friend who shorted the crash with volatility with calls/put options and if it had reached full value would have turned $20,000 into around $5MM....of course he sold at around $500,000 because everyone who isn't loaded would have (I wouldn't have made that much). It made him money on the way down though, so now he has loved the recovery. I've actually started looking at TVIX again.
Everyone is a genius in a bull market - Mark Cuban
I work a lot with investment professionals, which convinced me to not do individual equity picks -- those guys are super sharp and spend 50+ hours a week choosing picks and they don't often break the S&P 500.
Two questions:
- How much research do you do for your picks?
- How has your portfolio fared vs. the S&P 500?
These are great questions, and I'd be curious to see what everyone says to this because I'm sure it's quite different for everyone.
I generally research stocks/look at what strategies I want to use for about 1-2 hours a day, and then more on the weekends. Due to my job, I'm barely able to trade during day hours, so I want longer term plays - for example I thought there was a good swing trade on Luckin after it crashed, but I knew I'd miss it and don't want to be trying to be faster than Wall Street.
For my largest positions, I generally start with starter positions and then continuously buy as I learn more and more. I'd guess VBIV I now have done over 200 hours of research on since last October. BCRX is starting to get up there, and the more I own the more I have to remind myself not to get too in love with a few stocks.
2) This is really all that matters. Can I beat VOO and SPY (my two favorite S&P 500 ETFs)? Like I said I'm younger, so I am always trying to remind myself that I need to worry more about the bear markets going forward just because of my predispositions. But yes, the last year to date going back to 7/21/2019, I'm up 589% right now. First to admit these last two years have been by far my best (think all of 2019 I was around 380% before taxes). I have tracked how I've fared vs the S&P 500 since I started trading and I have only done worse in 2 years where my favorite stocks were going down and I kept averaging down. Trading is something I absolutely love, and I've been thinking of making a career out of it, but I hate how most money managers make money which has always been why I just give friends/family my advice via text.
I started learning how to buy/sell stocks using VO and in the last year expanded to a variety of stocks. ENPH, BFYT, AAPL, TSLA, WYNN have all been good. Frankly I don't understand why people insist on holding forever, especially right now. You make more buying low and selling high as these waves pass through and there's no upcoming stability. I don't have enough money in to make a lot, but with ENPH you could have sold at 70, bought back in as it came down to the 30s again, and now it's back up in the mid 60s.
Frankly I don't understand why people insist on holding forever, especially right now.
Because historically that doesn't produce returns as good as buying and holding index funds...? "Could have sold at 70 and bought back in as it came down to the 30s" is great in hindsight, but no one knows when that drop will happen, if it will happen, etc. so people buy in at 40, see it go to 70, think it will hit 80, and then freak when it drops to 30.
Investing in individual stocks would be incredibly easy if you could see the future...
"Could have sold at 70 and bought back in as it came down to the 30s" is great in hindsight, but no one knows when that drop will happen, if it will happen, etc. so people buy in at 40, see it go to 70, think it will hit 80, and then freak when it drops to 30. Investing in individual stocks would be incredibly easy if you could see the future..."
That's what technical analysis is for. Fib numbers, pivot points, stochastics and so forth. Combine that with the release of scheduled economic data and one could become a savvy investor/trader.
Available evidence would suggest that very, very few investors (even professional ones) beat the market over the long term.
I've been day trading for 20 years now. I'm self taught and use my own money. Started in stocks, moved to FOREX and now trade futures, mainly DAX and S&P contracts. There is an incredible amount of indicators and charting tools out there that will allow investors and traders the ability to better see the market trends and reversals.
While I admit trading/investing can be a difficult task, it is done every day. I've met thousands of fellow successful traders thru various conventions and social gatherings and I think it's fair to say, they have a different view on the markets than you.
I left a secure government job with 20 years towards retirement to trade full time. Haven't looked back and have zero regrets. Obviously we don't know one another but I can already see that we are two very different individuals. I'm a firm believer in that there are 3 types of people. Those that watch things happen, those that make things happen and those that wonder "What the F*#k just happened." I choose the second of the three
You're right, we don't know each other, and I agree that we're two very different individuals. Glad day trading is working out for you, evidence would suggest that the vast majority of traders would be better off just investing in index funds and leaving their money alone over the long term.
I'm not sure what you mean by "making things happen" as a day trader, but if clicking buy and sell on futures contracts makes you feel powerful, fulfilled, and happy, more power to you.
LOL. Trading doesn't make me feel powerful. On the contrary, I feel fortunate, blessed and appreciative. I work in my office at home. I have no boss, no commute and set my own work schedule. I have professional freedom that most will never experience. I've coached my daughter in every sport she played. Attended every game, dance recital, school play and trips while most parents only experience a portion of that. Powerful??? Not so much.
"Making things happen" refers to my choice to leave a good, secure job to take a chance that most would never attempt. Most people can't stomach losing money which is why so many fail at trading. So they go out and get a financial advisor to tell them what to do with their own money. If being told how to spend your own money works for you and you're content with sitting in a cubicle, working 9-5 and dealing with traffic, more power to you. While you're feeling safe and content, I'm feeling...."powerfull"
I don't remember who suggested DQ on the board about 4-6 weeks ago, but they are on point. Only wish I had got in a little sooner, but I was waiting for some dividends to pay before I bought.
Thanks for the tip, whoever it was!
I am sitting all cash atm
Buy Anacott Steel across the board.
October 16th, 2020 at 11:24 AM ^
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