OT: latest TikTok (if you don’t care about TikTok, then don’t click)

Submitted by bluesong on December 21st, 2023 at 10:28 AM

This old dude is still trying to get better at it. 
 

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8HTqsug/

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Football

Mgopioneer

December 21st, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^

When I took my now wife( girlfriend at the time )  to her first football game, Middle of the 3rd Qt Michigan was driving,  she looked at me and said " can't they just turn around and score the other direction? ". At that  moment i wasnt sure if it would work out.  

Fast forward, We just schedule a get away for our 10 year wedding anniversary this up coming year ( she still doesn't understand the 1st thing about football ).

 

Joined: 03/02/2021

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HAIL 2 VICTORS

December 21st, 2023 at 11:32 AM ^

My wife is sports agnostic and I will take that over the poor bastard who's wife attends a football game and screams "Hit-em! Hit-em! Why dont they hit-em?!" all day!

Cameron Diaz in "Something About Mary" DOES NOT EXIST and if you find a woman that can hit a golf ball they still have no clue what the infield fly rule is.

Cameron Diaz Something About Mary GIFs | Tenor

 

Joined: 12/01/2009

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Hensons Mobile…

December 21st, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^

It's way too subtle and also requires that you believe in a certain betting philosophy.

If tons of money is coming in on Bama, in theory, Vegas should move the line to reflect that. Usually Vegas wants the bets to be about even and just make money on the vig.

But in this case, they just keep taking money on Bama and not move the line, meaning Vegas will end up needing Michigan to cover or else they will take a bath because they will have to payout on all those Bama bets.

So Vegas is setting it up so that when Michigan covers, they will collect tons of money from all the sucker bets who thought they would be stealing money from Vegas because they think OF COURSE Bama will win outright. But see, Vegas is just setting them up because Vegas knows Michigan will win by at least 2.

So Michigan fans and Vegas are exchanging knowing nods while the rest of the dopes have no idea they're being taken for a fool.

Joined: 09/12/2019

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SanDiegoWolverine

December 21st, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^

Your assumption is almost 100% incorrect. Public betting only marginally if at all moves the lines. Early sharp money is what moves the lines. If Vegas just wanted even money on every bet you could just bet against the public on every bet and beat Vegas overtime. Vegas will take an occasional bath on public money if it means getting the lines right over time. 

Vegas not only makes money on the vig but also but consistently cashes out betting against public money. 

Joined: 02/03/2009

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Hensons Mobile…

December 21st, 2023 at 12:49 PM ^

If Vegas just wanted even money on every bet you could just bet against the public on every bet and beat Vegas overtime. Vegas will take an occasional bath on public money if it means getting the lines right over time. 

Vegas not only makes money on the vig but also but consistently cashes out betting against public money.

Maybe I said something wrong somewhere, but these two quotes of yours above echo the point I was making, so we must actually be saying the same thing.

Joined: 09/12/2019

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BTB grad

December 21st, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^

Yep, gambling novices like OP just always getting this wrong. Just like how 70% of the money was on OSU for The Game and the line hardly changed from when it opened to kickoff at -3.5. Vegas made a killing because they took a stand on the game.

The difference with this game is the line has moved in Bama’s favor. It went from -2.5 down to -1 at some books before settling in around -1.5. 

Once the line has moved in reaction to money coming in on a side, the % of money on one team vs. another isn’t really useful anymore. Because you don’t know what line they bet at. Yes, two thirds of the money might be on Bama but what’s more important is knowing how many of them took Bama +2.5 vs. Bama +1. It’s only useful a useful datapoint when say the majority of the money is on one side and the line is either unchanged or moves against the public (like 2021 UM-OSU and to a smaller extent 2023 UM-OSU).

 

Joined: 12/01/2015

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Hensons Mobile…

December 21st, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^

Just like how 70% of the money was on OSU for The Game and the line hardly changed from when it opened to kickoff at -3.5. Vegas made a killing because they took a stand on the game.

Yes, that is just like I said, and also just like SD Wolverine said. We've all now said the same thing.

To your other point, that the line moved this time, that is true. But then it stopped moving. I was under the impression that money kept coming in on Bama even after the line moved, which is the only way to interpret the OP's TikTok, I think.

Joined: 09/12/2019

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Adamantium

December 21st, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^

I like the idea of Michigan meme content tiktoks actually (like actually, like this is not sarcasm). The execution/idea on this one seems kinda half-baked though. Is that even a known meme format? It doesn't really.... do anything

Joined: 07/17/2010

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