NY6 Bowl Opportunity

Submitted by Forsakenprole on November 17th, 2019 at 11:21 AM

Hey All,

Been seeing some disappointing prognostications regarding our bowl fate now that we have been mathematically eliminated from title contention, and the Rose Bowl seems a long shot. But it seems that our chances for a NY6 Bowl Game are being overlooked.

I think the case for a Top 10, 10-2 Michigan team with two top 7 wins, another top 25 win, and two more top~35 wins (assuming we win out) would be very strong for a NY6 Bowl. I’d venture to say that it would be criminal to leave Michigan out of such a game.

But there are a number of teams like Minnesota, PSU, and Wisconsin who will make a similar case. However, none of those mentioned will have a case (especially if 1 loss OSU wins the conference and makes the playoffs) or resume as strong as Michigan’s, not to mention brand power.

IF Michigan wins out, I don’t think you can deny them a NY6 bowl game, mostly based on the fact that that would confirm the team is one of the hottest in the sport at that time.

How does the Board feel about this? Is there precedent for a conference having 2-3 at large bids, or seeing a team ranked 3rd in its division get an at large?

A team with Michigan’s presumed resume just doesn’t match up with the outback bowl.

What are our chances?

 

Cobra5476

November 17th, 2019 at 11:41 AM ^

"If" Michigan were to win out and beat OSU, they will probably be ranked around 6th or 7th in the playoff rankings.  They would for sure get into the New Year's Six.   The biggest question is whether they can make the Rose Bowl ( OSU will still make playoffs at 12-1).  If the West Champ finishes at 10-3 and PSU is 10-2, UM has a solid shot at a Rose Bowl bid.

We need Wisconsin to win the west for that to happen.

That said, let's just beat OSU.

Blue_Bull_Run

November 17th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^

Lol if we beat OSU, I wouldn’t even mind going down to the Gator bowl for the annual rematch with Florida. You guys may feel differently but for me, OSU is the bowl game. 

brad

November 17th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^

10-2 Michigan is an annual lock for a NY6 game.  That feels like a pipe dream this year, but if it happened they would find a slot somewhere.

umich1

November 17th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^

If Michigan beats Indiana and Ohio State, we will become national media darlings very quickly. They probably would start talking about the injuries @ Wisconsin and officiating @ Penn State. The media has no problem making a story when they can for ratings. And they will need to help excuse Ohio State’s loss to keep their storyline heading into the playoffs.
 

Notice all the Detroit Media’s sudden admiration of Harbaugh after yesterday’s game. We would see a similar turn at the national level.

If we win out and Ohio State wins the Big Ten conference, we WILL be in the Rose Bowl.  Guaranteed.  

DeepBlueC

November 17th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^

Being "National Media Darlings" and 5 bucks will get you a Grande Latte at Starbucks.

Even in the unlikely event we beat OSU, we're still behind Penn State in the standings based on tiebreak.  If we ended up tied for 2nd in the East with Penn State, they were ranked higher in the polls, but we had beaten them head to head, would anyone on this board be arguing that they should go to the Rose Bowl over us?  Nope.

Perkis-Size Me

November 17th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^

This is really simple. Win the next two weeks and Michigan is 100% in an NY6 bowl. No ifs ands or buts. Two big wins including arguably the best win of the CFB regular season (assuming LSU doesn’t lose) well traveling fanbase, huge TV ratings. I don’t know if it’d be the Rose Bowl, though. They’d be deserving, but so would a 10-2 Wisconsin and PSU team, both of whom have the H2H. Minnesota would also have a case if it won out the regular season but lost a somewhat close BTCG. Michigan is pretty far down the Rose Bowl pecking order right now.

Lose next week or the week after, and NY6 is off the table. Probably Outback or Citrus Bowl.

ijohnb

November 17th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^

We will 100% be in a NY6 game if we beat OSU.  Assuming a one loss OSU still made the Playoff if it won in Indy, given Minnesota’s loss yesterday, it would likely be the Rose Bowl.

Durham Blue

November 17th, 2019 at 12:34 PM ^

The crazy thing is we'll probably have as good or better resume at 10-2 than the teams that will be invited to play in the CFP.  That damn loss at PSU, argh.  If we win out I just don't see how we wouldn't get a NY6 bowl, and a good one at that.

I'd love to see a matchup with one of the other top 10 teams on the outside looking in such as Oklahoma or Georgia (if they don't make it).

Qmatic

November 17th, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^

Best case scenario is probably OSU blows out Penn St, we beat OSU and OSU dominates the west champion. That puts OSU in the playoff and us in the Rose Bowl vs Utah or Oregon. Both teams we are due a revenge game

scfanblue

November 17th, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^

Bowls look at how much of a teams fan base will travel which is always a huge plus for Michigan. If we beat Indiana then the OSU game is our bowl game. IF we manage to win that one then it is possible we play an Alabama, Georgia, or Oklahoma depending upon the final playoff shakeup which will most likely be LSU/Clemson/Bama/OSU. Georgia loses to LSU in SEC championship 

lilpenny1316

November 17th, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^

If we win our next two games, we'll probably be ranked no lower than 8th. 

OSU isn't losing to anyone else in the B1G, so they will go to the CFP as conference champs.  Even if they don't make it, we'll still finish top 10 and likely in a NY6 game.

To be honest, I hope we win out and OSU blows out PSU and Minn/Wisc in Indy.  That should get us to the Rose Bowl as the second highest ranked team.

 

Flying Dutchman

November 17th, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^

There are 2 tough games coming up.   Michigan has to bring it in both of them, get it done, and then we can all worry about New Year's Day.    Indiana is no joke, and the Buckeyes are the Buckeyes.  

BlueMk1690

November 17th, 2019 at 1:27 PM ^

This all has a very 'false dawn' feeling to it or soldiers cheerfully boarding their trains to the front in WW1. 

Every college football season has 2-3 teams that are basically playing at a different level than the rest. OSU is one such team this year. It might very well be the case that if you put Indiana at one end of the spectrum and OSU at the other, we're closer to Indiana. And we may still be a legit top 15 team.

I haven't seen a ton of OSU this year, but from everything I've seen I don't see an obvious weakness that one could exploit while I think we definitely have some. OSU dominated Wisconsin who I think we're pretty similar to in terms of quality.

I don't see how blowing out an MSU team that has lost a lot of its luster suddenly elevates us into that OSU, Clemson, LSU, Bama territory especially given that we certainly looked mortal vs Maryland in the most recent game before that.

I think Indiana will be a big enough challenge to worry about for the next 6 days..

ijohnb

November 17th, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^

We are not closer to Indiana than OSU.  OSU is a really good team but every test they have this year pre-Michigan is a home game.  Wisconsin was a field goal down to OSU in the third, State played them straight up for basically the entire first half.  OSU looks really really good, but we do not have evidence yet that they are an all-timer.  If they beat Penn State by 40 we may have that evidence, but not yet.

GGV

November 17th, 2019 at 1:23 PM ^

If Michigan wins out, we've got a decent shot at the Rose Bowl.

With Minnesota's loss yesterday, that means a 1 or 2 loss B1G West VS Ohio State.

Only thing that would prevent that if tOSU tanks and loses to both PSU & Michigan. Only way that happens is if their starting QB goes out injured.

What we'd need is to have Michigan win out then have tOSU crush Minnesota or Wisconsin in the B1G championship game and still get into the playoff at #3 or #4.

Then Rose would pick from the next group of 2 loss teams:

Michigan, PSU and maybe Minnesota. (if Wisconsin made the B1G championship game then they'd have 3 losses at this point.

Michigan should be the highest ranked & most attractive of that bunch so, should go to the Rose.

Chadillac Grillz

November 17th, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^

Well I agree with everyone that we should probably just stay focused on beating Indiana if we win out... We might have more to play for than just a New year's 6 game. Let's say without tua Alabama loses to Auburn hey Georgia losses in the SEC title game 2 LSU and every team in the ACC and sec have at least two losses with the exception of of course LSU and Clemson? Oklahoma and Baylor are both quite vulnerable for another loss but I wouldn't be shocked if the big 12 winner ended up being a two loss team... Would anybody really be surprised if the big 12 winner is a two-loss team??? Would anybody be shocked if Alabama loses to Auburn at this point? Okay so the four-team playoff now includes LSU and Clemson and every other team in the ACC, sec and big 12 are likely at 2 losses or more! I hope you see where I'm going with this... The pac-12 title will give either Utah or Oregon another loss and eliminate that team. The question is how certain are we at this point that the PAC 12 winner only has one loss? It's probably likely but not a certainty. What if a 2 loss team gets in the playoff? Lots of what ifs I know.....BUT!!! In the words of Lloyd Christmas so you're saying there's a chance ?

NittanyFan

November 17th, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^

NY6 Bowls are nice and all.  But the thing is, this year is a set-up where if (1) it's not the Rose Bowl, (2) it can only be the Orange or Cotton.

And the opponents there could only be ACC (Orange) or Gang-of-5 (Cotton).  Someone like Virginia or Pittsburgh or Cincinnati or Memphis or Boise State or Appalachian State.  It wouldn't be Georgia or Oklahoma.

Clarence Boddicker

November 17th, 2019 at 1:54 PM ^

Good lord. From the depths of BPONE to a post full of people high on their own juice. Some of y'all are getting way ahead of yourselves. Or at least where the team is. IU is going to be a tough game. Tougher than those bums the Good Guys crushed yesterday. We'll see how OSU does against Pedo State. If OSU blows out the Didn'tseeanything Lions and we scuffle against the Hoosiers, well...you know.

BlueHills

November 17th, 2019 at 1:55 PM ^

Over the last few weeks, Michigan has improved to the point of looking close to elite. That’s great, and we certainly went through enough pain for the gain. We’re starting to do things a lot better than last year. It’s a beginning, and I do think Harbaugh’s decision to revamp the offense, at least partially, has started to pay off, and things are starting to click.

But as someone else said, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves in expectations.

Connie_Bow

November 17th, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^

looking close to elite.

Why, because they had as close 2nd half with Penn St? Penn St who lost to Minnesota (Minnesota that lost to Iowa) and had a really close game with Indiana?

Or they had a one sided game with 8-2 and #15 Notre Dame who struggled with Virginia Tech?

There's 4 elite teams, one just lost their QB. And Michigan plays one of them in 2 weeks. Hopefully Michigan can pull off the upset. That one win alone would make them in consideration for a NY6.

Connie_Bow

November 17th, 2019 at 2:15 PM ^

We’re starting to do things a lot better than last year. 

Only 1 thing is looking better than last year, the running game. Look up WR numbers. They are down from last year. The O Line pass blocking and running game look better. Those are Ed Warinner's area. Ed Warinner's work is looking elite.

 

 

Connie_Bow

November 17th, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^

10-2 Michigan team with two top 7 wins

If they beat Ohio St that is one. No second to make it two. What team they beat will be in the top 7 at the end of the season? You don't think they look back to where teams were ranked earlier in the season? Just stop that.