NFL Mock Draft roundup
I'm sure I'll miss a few, but this is what I'm seeing for the top 5 picks, Michigan players, other players of interest (as determined by me), and the Lions. Saw JJ's draft prospects being discussed in another thread, thought I'd do a modicum of research here.
CBS Sports - first round only
- 1. Chicago - Caleb Williams
- 2. NYG - Drake Maye
- 3. New England - Olu Fashanu (OT, PSU)
- 4. Arizona - Marvin Harrison Jr
- 5. Chicago - Dallas Turner (DE, ALA)
- 15. Indy - Keon Coleman (WR, FSU lolz)
- 18. Cincy - Emeka Egbuka
- 19. NO - Michael Penix Jr
- 30. Detroit - Tyler Nubin (S, MIN)
Also from the B1G - Jer'zhan Newton (DE, ILL), JT Tuimoloau, Chop Robinson, Kalen King, Cooper Dejean.
Sports Illustrated - 3 rounds
- 1. Arizona - Marvin Harrison Jr
- 2. Chicago - Drake Maye
- 3. Chicago - Olu Fashanu (OT, PSU)
- 4. NYG - Caleb Williams
- 5. New England - JJ McCarthy (!!!)
- 6. LAR - Shadeur Sanders
- 13. Indy - Keon Coleman (WR, FSU lolz)
Also from the B1G - Jer'zhan Newton (DE, ILL), JT Tuimoloau, Chop Robinson, Kalen King, Cooper Dejean, Egbuka
2nd round
- 39. TB - Penix Jr
- 46. ATL - Quinn Ewers
- 61. Detroit - Caelen Carson (CB, Wake Forest)
From the B1G - Denzel Burke (CB, osu), Tyler Nubin (S, MIN), Jack Sawyer (DE, osu)
3rd round
- 65. Arizona - Zak Zinter
- 77. Atlanta - Kris Jenkins
- 84. Detroit - Antwane Well Jr (WR, SCar)
- 92. Detroit - Tyler Davis (DL, Clempson)
Also from the B1G - Cade Stover, Michael Hall, Donovan Jackson, Tyliek Williams - all from osu
ESPN ($) - 1 round
- 1. Chicago - Caleb Williams
- 2. Arizona - Marvin Harrison Jr
- 3. Denver - Drake Maye
- 4. NYG - Olu Fashanu (OT, PSU)
- 5. Chicago - Dallas Turner (DE, ALA)
- 11. Indy - Keon Coleman (WR, FSU lolz)
- 25. Detroit - JT Tuimoloau (DE, osu)
- 28. Baltimore - Kris Jenkins
Also from the B1G - Jer'zhan Newton (DE, ILL), Chop Robinson, Kalen King, Cooper Dejean, Emeka Egbuka
Observations:
Basically, Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr, Olu Fashanu, and Dallas Turner are consensus top 5 picks. The SI guy has JJ in the top 5 ahead of Maye which seems optimistic, but who knows - if he crushes it for the next 5 games, it could happen.
Otherwise, Newton, Robinson, King, Dejean, Egbuka, and Tuimoloau appear to be consensus first round picks.
Kiper has JJ as the 6th rated QB on his big board, which probably puts him in the 2nd round. Behind Williams, Maye, Sanders, Nix, Penix. Ahead of Daniels, Ewers.
I'm sure there are other reputable mock drafts (which should all just be taken with massive grains of salt anyway), but generally, I'm guessing folks are looking at JJ as a 2nd rounder right now, maybe a mid-late 1st rounder depending on how the season plays out.
Also lulz at msu for consensus first round pick Keon Coleman.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
JJ is staying for another year.
Book it.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
Leading up to the Fiesta Bowl last year (I believe), JJ said that he planned on staying all 4 years, but you know sometimes people change their minds. However, knowing what kind of person JJ is, I feel like he's having too much fun and loves being at Michigan too much to enter the draft early.
November 15th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
I don’t have a whole lot of personal perspective for this but just my opinion from what I see of the players and how schools have been handling NIL and the kind of “arms race” to upgrade their staffs and facilities, I think especially in the last couple years, the bloom has come off the NFL’s rose to some degree.
Obviously it’s still the ultimate goal, but imagine a guy in JJ’s position; he’s had his weeks where he’s been the talk of college football, he’s certainly school and Ann Arbor royalty, he’s surrounded by the best friends he’ll ever have, getting developed by some excellent, world class coaches, and now he can pull in a pretty decent paycheck while he’s here?
Go to the league, and yeah sure, the hype around the draft and everything must be crazy, but beyond that, your life is going to get significantly tougher, and odds are it’s going to be a real grind for a few years. I know I can’t relate to the competitive drive of D1 athletes who want to compete at that level, but all in all, that decision isn’t as cut and dried as it used to be.
November 15th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
Hey Brian,
Just out of curiosity, what kind of number for JJ's Nil money are we talking about? Or range. I never really hear about an actual amount.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
That would be so amazing I cannot even fathom. Third year starter and allow Davis to sit and learn for a year. Maybe we can haz nice things finally.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Fashanu is lots of hype and mild substance. I can see him becoming a very good NFL OT based on his raw talent / athleticism but he is a long way off from that.
To me - he is a mid-to-late 1st round pick. Lions would actually be a good landing spot as he could be a backup for a year before getting thrust into the starting lineup after Taylor Decker's contract is up.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
Fashanu better go to a team with a good O line coach because a lot of what he has shown is just being a better athlete than the DEs he goes up against. That will end very soon. Also, anyone spending a first round pick on JTT is an idiot. You can pick up 6'4" 270 lb guys with marginal athletic traits in any round. His production is unimpressive and he is still getting too much love off of his recruiting profile. He is from Washington, not Florida. If he were a recruit from SEC country he would have been a run of the mill 4 star. I do not get it.
November 15th, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^
OK, I get it now:
PSU : OT :: OSU : CB
Now it makes sense. Fashanu in the top-five is like Okudah. Right down to the blocking/coverage that's really just uncalled holding because of reputation.
November 15th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
Agreed. I understand LT is a super valued position and he has all of the talent to be a very good one but a top-five pick of Fashanu screams "bust potential" to me.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
He's young.. and not just as a UM fan but I think it's smart for him to stay..2024 is a big QB class..an extra year to develope and a lesser QB class in 2025 wouldn't be a bad move for JJ.
November 15th, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
I’m inclined to agree. The NIL money will be good, and he’ll have a chance to go top 10 in 2025. Plus he clearly loves Michigan and his coach.
Of course, if Harbaugh leaves, all bets are off.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
It's hard for me to imagine what these folks are seeing in JJ McCarthy and thinking he isn't first round material.
My guess is that whatever they are not seeing in McCarthy is because they are not looking.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
NFL style system, NFL reads, passing concepts, plays above the xs and os...might be seen as a little slight in his build and he needs to take sacks better ie not doing the madden thing. Other than that he really has all the tools.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
And we've never seen 1st round QBs (who draft prognosticators often rave about) do the madden thing before. Amirite?
Or is that ok only if they're 6' 3"+ and 230lbs.+?
November 15th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
Because frankly the vast majority of these people doing mock drafts just box score watch and don't watch film. Actual draft analysts, like Dane Brugler, love McCarthy. The only 2 things that I could possibly knock JJ on is that he's a little slight for a QB and he tends to rifle his deep balls sometimes instead of putting some air under them
November 15th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
Yea he certainly has some downsides. My view is:
Pros:
- Elite out of pocket/on the move thrower, especially down field
- Consistent/accurate on intermediate throws, especially ~15 yards down field
- Good athlete, especially for his size. Shows decent instincts as a straight line runner
- Winner who has showed clear trajectory of improvement. High character leader
Cons:
- Lacks diversity of throws, especially arc-ed deep throws. Generally struggles with touch throws
- Inconsistent in anticipating throws/throwing open receivers
- Mediocre accuracy on short throws
- Underweight for NFL level
- Lacks elusiveness as a runner; unlikely to be featured on NFL level as a runner (can serve as a constraint)
November 15th, 2023 at 3:31 PM ^
His MSU tape alone would somewhat negate bullet point two on the cons list. Dude was on fire throwing NFL type darts. Everyone watching was thinking yup he is NFL ready.
November 15th, 2023 at 9:59 PM ^
That game is probably the high water mark in that regard.
I didn't give an overall rating but I see him as NFL ready. Plenty to improve upon, but worthy of spending a mid-late first round pick on. I think he may struggle if he's handed the keys to an NFL team too quickly though.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
They aren't watching every game like we are, and just seeing the numbers, mostly.
November 15th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
- He hasn't played for Lincoln Riley
- He hasn't played in a spread offense with 5-10 first-round receivers
- He's not an athletic freak with ugly tape against mediocre competition
- He hasn't led a team to an ACC championship after three years of mediocre play
November 15th, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
2nd round QB grade can easily turn into a 4th round pick. Happens every year. If teams aren't taking a QB in the first they're waiting for the middle rounds. Who would be the competition at QB in the top 5 of next year's draft for McCarthy if he stays?
Was looking at JTT of OSU and his stats the other day, thinking about DEs available to the Lions in the late first, and they're not all that impressive. Outside of that crazy performance last year against PSU has he really been that amazing?
November 15th, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
I think a good comp for him is Rashan Gary. He is definitely a Mike Morris more than Chase Winovich. I think he's very good against the run, and is an elite athlete, but isn't a natural pass rusher and that isn't in his responsibilities it seems like at OSU.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
Not with JJ. When Harbaugh calls him perhaps the best QB to play here, and all are pissed they passed on Brady, that will assure he doesn't slide past the 3rd. Win the title and he goes top 15. If not it's late first to early second, just due to the QB numbers.
November 15th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
Winning the title, or not winning it, won’t have anything to do with where he’s drafted. Stetson Bennett won two and went in the 4th round.
November 15th, 2023 at 2:11 PM ^
Without winning those titles (and his relatively strong performances in those games against good competition), he probably does not even get drafted.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
I noticed OSU's whole D-line is represented in at least one list. Are they really that good? I can think of instances in the past where a high composite HS recruiting ranking gets someone the benefit of the doubt, especially early or mid-season.
November 15th, 2023 at 1:34 PM ^
It kind of makes sense though. High recruiting rankings are oftentimes based on athleticism and potential, and pro teams pretty frequently draft based on athleticism and potential (even if the production wasn't there in college). They see the raw material and figure they can develop it better than the college team could.
November 15th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
OSU is pulling 4-6 5* a year and the rest are pretty much high 4s. You can't teach athlete. Lots of NFL position coaches would die to work with that type of athlete. See Gary, Rashan in our case.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
JJ needs another year or four. Just not ready. Also his meditating is a red flag. I could see him slipping to the 12th round.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
marvin harrison is the best player in the draft. if NE passes on him for a OT that would be michael jordan-esque.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Look at NE's history with drafted WRs though and tell me you wouldn't be surprised. It's a position that Bill Belichek doesn't value and it shows in their roster construction.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
100%. Randy Moss in the '07 season is the only aberration on that where Belichek just went for gusto and got Brady a true #1 receiver. Other than that, its been tight ends and tough, but scrawny undersized no-name guys who usually roll out of a place like Texas Tech and end up having far better careers than they were originally projected to.
November 15th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
Yeah, and when he does break from that and actually draft a WR in the 1st, he grabs...N'Keal Harry...
November 15th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Will Belichek even be the Pats HC next year?
November 15th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
NO! Bill is looking at value and probably scouting S and ST players from Saginaw Valley, Ferris or MIAA schools for that 1st round pick.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
Sorry but I disagree, especially when our guy shut him down last season, and with Stroud...
November 15th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
MH2 had seven receptions for 120 yards and a TD in The Game last season. I’d say M contained him, they didn’t “shut him down.”
November 15th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
No one can look at the tape of Fashanu and pick him that high. He's insanely overrated.
I think Sanders comes back.
I like Penix's story and all, I'm not convinced he is an NFL QB but I didn't believe in RG3, Mariotta, Bryce Young, or Jordan Love or Daniel Jones, or Kyler Murray or Mac Jones or Justin Fields.
I think Caleb Williams has a rough rookie year, but gets it together. Lot of people are saying he doesn't let the game come to him and he's trying too hard to make great plays instead of taking easy ones.
I think Egbuka is good, but he isn't Olave, JSN, Wilson, or Harrison. First round pick seems a little high.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
Williams is going to need to go to a coach that will work on his footwork and fundamentals. He has a strong arm, but his footwork is so bad it leads him to be pretty inaccurate and takes a lot of velocity off his throws. He benefits from Pac-12 defenses that often aren't in contact with receivers.
The Fashanu love is deeply mysterious. Gotta have a highly rated left-tackle, I guess.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
What was your take on Malik Willis coming out ?
November 15th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^
same as Anthony Richardson. Doesn't have it. Doesn't mean he's trash, but he's not a guaranteed playoff contender every year. Neither of those guys seem like who you want to build a franchise around.
November 15th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^
Malik Willis couldn't hold Anthony Richardson's jock strap. If you had the same eval on both QBs, you're insane.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
Was looking for the first reply re: Fashanu so I didn't have to make a post.
This kid is headed toward being a huge draft bust if he goes that high. He has all the measurables - hence the buzz - but if anything he has lowered his draft stock by playing this year for people who actually watch tape.
The value of potential fades with experience - (see Milton, Joe and his Heisman buzz over the summer)- and while he wasn't on my radar last year, I now notice the lack of buzz around his play this year.... then we see the film assessment in the UFR of his play - I assume they DO call those holds in the NFL.
Ebuka and Williams are also likely overrated due to the offenses they play in - exactly why M has to work harder to attract QBs and WRs than others.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
Giants taking Maye at second overall? After that massive contract they just paid to Daniel Jones?
I'm sure it somehow would involve them finding a trade partner, but I'm not sure who would be willing to take on that kind of contract for Daniel Jones if they had any other choice. I get that mega contracts for QBs are essentially the cost of doing business once a QB gets to his second contract.....but man, I don't know that I could justify paying that much to take on Daniel Jones, unless the Giants were willing to eat a majority of the remainder of his contract.
November 15th, 2023 at 3:23 PM ^
Jones sucks.
His cap hit is $22M in 2025 and $11M in 2026.
Let him get beat up for a year in 2024 while the rookie sits for half the season and takes over 1/2 to 2/3 of the way through the year... and then he can sit his a$$ on the bench as a backup in 25 and be cut in 26 or be cut in 25 if they don't want him. Cap goes up every year - forget the number on the contract it's about structure and escape clauses. Even $22M ain't too bad but $11M is nothing in 2 seasons.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Mel Kiper Jr! What a loser.
November 15th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
Who the hell is Mel Kiper?
November 15th, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^
Just a dude that loves football, his hair, and pumpkin pie.....
November 15th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^
JJ’s coming back
Dejean has MCDC guy written all over him
November 15th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
Completely agree. I thought the selection of Tyler Nubin was interesting, mostly because I believe the Lions need more help at outside corner than safety or nickel/hybrid. Then I remembered that CJ Gardner-Johnson only signed a 1-year deal. Hopefully he comes back to the team for another season, trying to boost his stock in free-agency. If he doesn't then drafting a safety becomes another high priority with outside corner and edge rusher.
Also a blocking tight end would be nice in the middle rounds. James Mitchell isn't impressing me. AJ Barner would be awesome!