Michigan State Snowflakes: The Offense
October 29th, 2022 at 11:19 PM ^
You have high hopes before you go for a dump?
October 29th, 2022 at 11:24 PM ^
I don’t have that problem, but I’ve heard others talk.
October 30th, 2022 at 8:41 AM ^
There he sat all broken-hearted. Thought he pooped but only farted.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:08 PM ^
I am going to get negged for this but holy hell the WRs. Asides from Bell, the development on WR is laughable. Any top target WR that was visiting is thinking otherwise. How you can’t expand downfield with a dynamic QB, RB(s), and a WR threat is insane. But, yet, 3 yard passes is on the menu. FWIW, I put it on coaching and skill sets of WRs.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:15 PM ^
A top WR is thinking wow what a chance I get here. Just saying....
October 29th, 2022 at 11:25 PM ^
Really? I see a team down south throwing 15+ Yard pers, where it’s a wet dream for UM to just to get a throw 15+
October 29th, 2022 at 11:29 PM ^
In all honesty, if I was a top talent WR recruit, I wouldn’t even take Harbaugh’s phone call. The body of his work with QBs and WRs since 2015 is in and graded…and it’s pathetic.
No way I’d waste my college years and a shot at the pros languishing in Harbaugh’s offense.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:48 PM ^
This is a bit hyperbolic but I agree to some extent. It’s weird since Harbaugh was, you know, a QB and all.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:01 AM ^
Well Nico and DPJ didnt catch a ton of balls. They both got drafted.
Chesson and Darboh also got drafted.
You dont need video game numbers to get drafted. You have to be good at football.
Good thing you are not a top talent WR recruit.
Besides all of the aforementioned, good post.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:09 AM ^
Couldnt agree more. At least TE’s should still want to take our call.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:30 AM ^
I think as UM fans we came to the somber realization tonight that this is who the offense is. Yes, it’s beautiful to see a Chris Perry 3.0 in Blake Corum but to actually open up the offense, especially in this game, is concerning. WRs can’t get open with MSUs secondary. That’s not good. I get the bread and butter is OL and running the ball, but being one dimensional and knowing we only have 1 possibly WR to take it to the end zone is bad.
October 30th, 2022 at 3:07 AM ^
Michigan is 20-2 in the last two seasons, with an excellent chance to improve to 23-2 heading into Columbus. Want to know the last time Michigan won 23 games in a two-year stretch? Never.
And, guess what? Penn State was running it fairly consistently on OSU throughout much of the first half — the same PSU squad that couldn’t move the ball at all on Michigan. 24-2 is within the realm of possibility.
October 30th, 2022 at 8:53 AM ^
24-2 over two seasons is nice, but Michigan went 50-4-1 from 1970 through 1974. In spite of that record, all we got was one conference title and didn’t come close to even sniffing a national title, in large part because our passing game was incapable of helping us when our best opponents didn’t allow us to just run the ball down their throats.
Ohio State can score quickly with their passing game from anywhere on the field. If they get up on us by a couple of scores, our slow python offense is going to struggle to keep up.
October 30th, 2022 at 9:29 AM ^
It’s good to be back arguing about what we need to get over the national championship hump…
…instead of arguing how we get eight wins and beat the Toledos and Michigan States of the world.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^
Agreed. Also the fact that the most recent comparable is from the early 70s should say something.
My only complaint is that they seem to not even try to throw the ball deep. There were multiple 2nd and 2s in this game that would have been perfect for a deep pass. Explosive plays matter not just for recruiting, but confidence and morale of existing players in those position groups.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:09 PM ^
MOAR FIELD GOALS
October 29th, 2022 at 11:09 PM ^
We need more explosive plays to beat OSU, but the offensive line is a weapon to behold. There is still room to grow on that side of the ball. JJ's scrambles just break teams back. Need to get TD's next time but overall a nice performance in a rivalry game.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:35 PM ^
I dunno. Last year’s team lost to Sparty and then pantsed the Buckeyes. I see this a a sure sign we will mercy OSU this year by halftime
October 29th, 2022 at 11:09 PM ^
Obviously, the red zone is a concern. And MSU is terrible at defending the pass and Michigan seemed unable to test that.
Also beat them by 22 points. Could easily have gone the whole game without punting, and didn’t by choosing not to go for it on a makeable fourth down. Run game is quite good, obviously.
I’m trying not to go more into the negatives of the passing game. It’s a real issue. It’s also important to remember that Michigan is 8-0 and looks really good; the passing game is one of those things that is important for Michigan has national aspirations. 11-0 is definitely in sight regardless.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:11 PM ^
The trophy is back where it belongs.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:13 PM ^
Another game where JJ didn't have to be great, but I worry a little about the game in which he will have to be great.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
Just saying, you were making similar comments last year, and were proven wrong. We didn't need to do much else, and didn't really try to either. Let the season play out, then if we're not where we "should" be, then complain.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:09 PM ^
Running game is great. Passing game is terrible. Unleash JJ. Fix the weird passing route trees. Get a competent set of plays for inside the 10. D was tremendous, outside of 4 pass plays.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:11 PM ^
At some point you need to accept this is it, there is no unleashing that will be happening.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:12 PM ^
Yeah, you are correct. And it really puts a ceiling on haw far Michigan can go this year. And it does not have to be that way. But it will be that way.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:10 AM ^
If only cade was the starter…finished it for you.
October 30th, 2022 at 2:58 PM ^
Which part of ‘unleash JJ’ did you fail to comprehend?
October 29th, 2022 at 11:22 PM ^
Here’s the thing: you say “fix the weird passing route trees.”
Ok. What’s weird about them? How can they be fixed? What should they look like?
These are things we don’t know. One of the things that is frustrating as a fan is that we don’t have a full picture of how teams build their route structure. We see isolated plays, but not the whole picture. I have suspicions about certain aspects of it, but not knowledge; we simply don’t have the data or the film.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:42 PM ^
Would be great if TV went back to all 22 camera angles. However, whenever we do get to see the passing routes trees, very often routes are clustered together at just one or two levels. Not always. But a lot. Too few trees are cleverly schemed to clear out a zone to scheme a guy open, or to put d-backs in conflict. It too often seems like the route trees just depend on individual receivers to run crisp routes to get open as individual receivers. Not really a three thing, but all year the receivers get to the ends of their routes (covered) and then just...stop. Not enough coming back to the ball, etc.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:01 AM ^
Are you sure about that? You say "too few trees are cleverly schemed to clear out a zone to scheme a guy open," but in my opinion *too many* of Michigan's plays are designed that way. Among other things, Michigan's favorite pass play is to send most of the receivers on vertical routes with one guy, often a TE or Ronnie Bell, underneath, open with *lots* of space to run in. The throw covers maybe ten yards in the air. (The pass to Edwards out of the backfield was a nice variation on this). It's a great play, but they lean on it too much, IMO. The flood stuff they run to one side, run at least a couple times today, is one of those zone-beating concepts that does exactly what you say you want it to do, put DBs in conflict.
I suspect you're right about the receivers stopping at the end of their routes, as we don't seem to spring guys open on scramble drills much, but again, hard to tell.
This is mostly gut feeling (though some outside analysis that makes use of actual playbooks and All-22 has contributed to this) but I feel like the one area (and probably the only area) where Michigan really misses Gattis' influence is in his passing playbook, much of which he inherited from Joe Moorhead, and excellent college OC. I have no idea if they still make use of a lot of those passing concepts or not. There's no All-22 and JJ rarely strikes that deep (there was one good downfield pass that looked like some of that stuff today, granted).
October 30th, 2022 at 12:11 AM ^
I do agree on those 'clear out combined with underneath route' plays. But...that seems to be it. Where are the route trees that stress a safety to cover to one side leaving a big hole...into which another route flows, etc.? Why so little use of trips inside the ten (or anywhere on the field) that clears of DBs? Those are just two examples. We saw this stuff in the past. Not much this year.
[edit: Michigan won that game at PSU last year due to a brilliantly designed play that schemed Erick All loose with miles of green to run for the winning TD. The routes and flow of the play had PSU defenders flowing east, and All on a good route heading west. Easy catch, and it left PSU's defenders out of position to limit the gain. That game was won with smart play design. Just seeing very little of that this year. Saving it all for OSU? Hope so. But it might be that the change in OCs is hurting the pass play designs, etc.]
October 30th, 2022 at 12:29 AM ^
A route tree is static. There are 9 routes on a route tree.
What you people are trying to say is that you don’t like or understand the route combinations we’re running.
As exotic as our run game concepts are, I’d argue that our passing game concepts are equally vanilla, and limited by the types of receivers we have and/or trust. Most explosives go to our TEs for a reason.
What makes zero sense to me is that the route combinations we’re using between the 20s should be used in the red zone, and the red zone route combinations are more likely to be successful between the 20s. Very strange.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:47 AM ^
You want to send a receiver on a 40-yard vertical route from the opponent's ten yard line?
Can you identify which route combos, specifically, you want to see inside the 20? Which concepts?
My whole point is that it is frustrating because we do not and cannot have the full picture without all-22 footage. Even if we see certain route combos in certain plays, we don't know how they work together with other plays. Other routes. Suppose Roman Wilson runs a seemingly simple seam route, and the defender is all over it, and we think it's a bad route (I've criticized Wilson's route-running on occasion). But we haven't seen every route he has run; perhaps he has a dig in his repertoire that uses his downfield speed and the tendency of DBs to worry about his big-play ability to get open. And perhaps JJ just doesn't see it. Or, perhaps, such variation doesn't really exist.
We don't know. And the term "vanilla" can mean different things. Tennessee's basic downfield passing concept is extremely simple; their "route tree" is so pared down that receivers from programs of that coaching lineage have a lot of work to do to learn how to function in the NFL because there are a bunch of routes that they have never run. But Tennessee's downfield passing attack is extremely good against college defenses, as it was at Baylor. "Simple" does not mean bad, and (it's possible this is important with regard to Michigan's NFL-trained offensive staff) "complex" does not necessarily mean good.
October 30th, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
In response to you SRK, while we cannot see the 'all 22,' consider the data we have. From the route combos we do see...it is not good stuff. Why would one infer that on the plays were we cannot see the combos (TV coverage/replays do not show it) that the combos would be good?
The other data is that even a bad secondary like MSU seems to have solid coverage on the pass plays where we cannot see the route combos (excluding the underneath stuff).
Either the route combos do not work well, or Michigan has absolute terrible receivers. Since the route combos are not good on the plays where we can see them...I think I'd conclude the route combos are bad on the rest too (at least before I conclude that Michigan has a terrilble receiver group that just cannot get open even with intelligent route combos)....
One more thing: You argue that simple route combos does not necessarily mean bad route combos. Maybe. But I am not arguing that Michigan's route combos are simple. I am arguing that they are bad (whether nor not they are simple).
October 30th, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
Yes, actually you are correct on the terminology. What I am talking about really are route combinations. Route tree is not really the accurate term for what I am getting at.
Again, we do not get all 22 film. But after all games I do watch the longer recaps posted on YouTube, and this year have specifically been looking at the route combos on any play where we can see them in the replay. They are usually pretty bad.
One example: That series in the red zone where JJ threw an incomplete pass on the goal line.... Go find a game replay on YouTube, watch the route combo (and also the way the routes are run) and...it is just bad. The only route combos that worked yesterday where the several '3 verts with a TE or RB schemed against a LB across the middle' type of plays. The rest? Terrible. Now, could it be that the route combos that we cannot see (due to the way TV covers games) are well designed? Anything is possible. But that seems exceedingly unlikely.
Before the season many were hoping that with JJ as QB, Michigan would add a strong passing game to the already lethal run offense. Has not happened. Not even close. And we are too far into the season to think that it is a 'not needed we are playing Hawaii' or a 'saving it for OSU' thing. Michigan's win probability in Columbus goes way down if they do develop something better in the passing game. OSU's LB are not going to be as bad this year as they were last year. Time is running short.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:09 PM ^
Corum is going full Beast Mode. McCarthy was off today, consistently throwing behind receivers. No doubt it is just a bad day and he'll tighten that up. The red zone playcalling left something to be desired. But one punt in a sixty minute game, I mean, you're doing something right.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:48 AM ^
Today was the last, best chance to "unleash" McCarthy and the passing game given that the game was at home, the weather favorable...playcalls are likely to be conservative for the next few games until they absolutely have to do something bolder in late November.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:09 PM ^
JJ is still learning stuff and looks like he mistake averse and checks down a lot to short options
October 29th, 2022 at 11:11 PM ^
I think this is coached, because the last 8 years under Jim we’ve seen the same thing regardless of the QB
October 29th, 2022 at 11:12 PM ^
I’m wondering how much of that is coaching. There’s probably a fine line between making sure your QB knows the importance of ball security and drumming that lesson in so hard that opportunities are unnecessarily avoided.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:24 AM ^
I don’t think you can blame coaching on ball security for throwing behind receivers.
October 30th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
Actually, you can. At least, it is possible, since we can never be 100% sure.
If JJ is waiting that extra beat or half-beat because of thinking "is this throw safe?" then it could totally account for some of the throws behind the receivers.
We can't be sure, but JJ seems to be "de-volving" into what every Harbaugh-at-Michigan QB becomes. Short throws, checkdowns, and less and less deeper throws as the conference season goes on. There's enough evidence to say it's possible, maybe even probable, that coaching is contributing to JJ's issues.
DISCLAIMER: I am not posting this to be Debbie Downer about our season. We are kicking ass, and it's awesome. It's just not with the explosive offense many of us were hoping for.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:34 AM ^
The mistake-aversion and reliance on check-downs is micro-management by Harbaugh. This is how he wants it, and he's drilled it into every QB since he's been here. We could have an explosive offense with JJ at the helm, but that route leads to too high a chance for mistakes for Jim's liking.
The run game better work against OSU, because we're not just going to be able to flip the switch.
October 30th, 2022 at 12:50 AM ^
The alternative to that?
WRs have to do a better job of getting open, and QBs have to be more willing to make gutsy throws on 3rd and 4th down. Won't believe that till we see it.
October 30th, 2022 at 8:02 AM ^
Does he have to throw on the run on every play? I not a QB guru but those throws that were off were thrown while moving and throwing of the back foot.
October 30th, 2022 at 8:24 AM ^
Does he have to throw on the run on every play? I not a QB guru but those throws that were off were thrown while moving and throwing of the back foot.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:09 PM ^
If this where we can complain about the whiny, offensive people posting here before halftime? The idea is to have more points at the end of the game.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:10 PM ^
Always lots of pearl clutching here in the first half of every game this year
October 29th, 2022 at 11:13 PM ^
8-0 is great. There are obvious flaws though if the goal is to compete on a national stage, and it’s ok to be concerned about that.
October 29th, 2022 at 11:18 PM ^
Ha ha ha. We can never enjoy a win. We look at every play, every game with the eyes of what will happen against OSU. No relief until the last Saturday in November.