Michigan starts at number 5 in the first CFP Selection of the season.

Submitted by NotADuck on November 1st, 2022 at 7:16 PM

7. TCU

6. Alabama

5. Michigan

4. Clemson

3. Georgia

2. Ohio State

1. Tennessee

Logan88

November 2nd, 2022 at 8:32 AM ^

Tennessee's worst three non-conference opponents are: Ball State, Akron and UT Martin. That is no better than UM's non-conference schedule. UT's "quality" non-conference game was against Pitt which they barely won in OT. That Pitt game is UT's ninth game against a Power 5 opponent, UM plays in a conference where they always play nine games against Power 5 opponents.

Should an SEC team benefit from the fact that their conference only plays eight conference games as opposed to the Big Ten which plays nine conference games?

I am very tired of hearing how bad UM's non-conference schedule is when most teams in the SEC and ACC (which only play eight conference games) play three baby seals and one Power 5 team which means they are just playing the same number of non-cupcakes as the Big 10, Pac 10 and Big 12.

 

/rant

BoFan

November 1st, 2022 at 9:20 PM ^

Biggest ranking mistake?  How about LSU way above PSU.  Both have two losses but Penn State’s losses were to 2 undefeated top five teams.  LSU and Penn State also have a common opponent in Auburn. Penn State blew them out and LSU barely won. So why is LSU ranked so much higher. Does anybody have any worse comparisons?

NotADuck

November 1st, 2022 at 7:18 PM ^

I guess strength of schedule so far is the reasoning as to why the rankings are what they are at this point.  EXCEPT FOR ALABAMA.  Clearly some historical bias with Alabama.

NotADuck

November 1st, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^

I agree and I would rank them behind Michigan too but clearly the committee thinks they have more quality wins to this point in the season than Michigan.  I can agree with that as well.  I still wouldn't rank them higher than Michigan though.

Unfortunately I think Clemson's toughest game left on the schedule is this week @ Notre Dame.  I think the chances are high they remain unbeaten until the ACC Championship and I doubt they lose that game either.

SD Larry

November 1st, 2022 at 7:42 PM ^

Personally thought Clemson caught some breaks with inconsistent officiating on personal foul calls vs. Syracuse.  One sideline hit gave them a first down when they were stopped in second half on third and long, however an as bad or worse hit on the Syracuse qb out of bounds was overlooked ten minutes later. 

gsquared2123

November 1st, 2022 at 7:45 PM ^

I dont agree that clemson has more quality wins.  Wake Forest and Syracuse  just lost to Louisville and Notre Dame, and each by about 20 points.  Those were Clemsons "Best" opponents. It doesn't appear to me that Clemson has played a better team, and destroyed them the way Michigan handled PSU.

umfan83

November 1st, 2022 at 7:37 PM ^

Agreed.  Computers have them way behind Michigan.  Some SOS metrics have Michigan's schedule tougher.  Clemson has almost lost 3 times already while Michigan has beaten every team by 2+ scores except the prevent TD vs. Maryland.  If you are putting Clemson 4 because they beat a few fringe top 25 teams, then TCU should be right behind them or ahead of them.  Putting Bama 6 is a disgrace

TrueBlue2003

November 1st, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^

unclear what you're saying.  Bama has BY FAR the most difficult schedule so far of anyone in the top 10. EDIT SoS is not a subjective thing.  Bama has the 10th most difficult schedule, Tennessee the 19th and no one else in the top 7 has a top 50 schedule per FPI.  These are not my opinions they're unbiased statistical metrics.

It's so strong that their Strength of Record is 6th (better than Michigan despite having a loss).  So yes, these rankings were very much in line with SoR (which is heavily influenced by SoS) as they usually are. 

The big exception being TCU at #7 instead of their #3 rank in SoR, probably because while they've played a tough schedule on paper, most of the good teams were without their starting Qbs.

MaizeNBlueTexan

November 1st, 2022 at 7:43 PM ^

You clearly don't watch the games. Bama almost lost to THAT texas team by 1 point and THAT A/M team. Both unranked just fyi.
 

They have a chance to prove themselves with future matchups but these rankings are based on what you’ve done. Not what you COULD have done.

Horrible take.

 

Edit: Texas was without their starting qb for more than half the game. Only mentioning it because you knocked TCU for it.

TrueBlue2003

November 2nd, 2022 at 1:55 AM ^

What do close wins have to do with Strength of Schedule?  Bama has BY FAR the best SoS of anyone in the top 10 by every metric that tracks these things. Objectively.

I do watch the games.  I saw that Bama played AT the #1 team in the country.  They played AT the #24 team in the country (per the committee).  They played AT 5-3 Arkansas.  They hosted 5-3 Miss St.  The difficultly of the schedule is not debatable.

You can argue the eye test but that's not what the thread is about.

TrueBlue2003

November 2nd, 2022 at 2:06 AM ^

But the fact they've yet to play matters.  That means Clemson has already played more conference games than Michigan.  Only two cupcakes to Michigan's three, so yeah the schedule has been more difficult.  Not by much though.  Clemson has SoS of 72 and Michigan 79 so it's very close.  That said, Michigan's is only going to get relatively worse over the next two games.

None of it matters.  Beat Ohio and win the conference and they're in (even if they lose a game before that).

UNCWolverine

November 1st, 2022 at 7:18 PM ^

Can't imagine anyone can still defend our piece of crap OOC schedule anymore. It's awful for the fans that enjoy/live for huge matchups. And now it's clearly awful for our playoff rankings.

2023 is just as bad, completely disappointing to me. 

TrueBlue2003

November 1st, 2022 at 7:44 PM ^

This is 100% false.  The committee time and time again does these rankings pretty much in line with the Strength of Record metric which is heavily influenced by SoS because it's a resume metric that doesn't consider margin of victory.  Teams outside the SEC that don't have brutal conference schedules should schedule accordingly.

The SEC doesn't have to schedule tough OOC opponents because the SEC (well, certainly the West) plays a very difficult schedule by default.  The numbers don't lie on SoS metrics.

That's the consequence of having IU and Rutgers and Maryland (usually) in your division.  You're just not going to end up with a super difficult conference schedule.  So play someone in the non-conference.

And before anyone cries SEC bias, Georgia is sitting at #3 for the same reason Michigan is at #5.  Weak schedule.