November 1st, 2022 at 9:03 PM ^
Treat Texas like a middle of the road SEC team (like a 9th conference game for them). Bama’s three other non conference games are on par with Michigan’s three non conference opponents. The non conference schedule should not matter. It’s the total strength of schedule that should matter since the SEC plays 8 conference games rather than 9 conference games. Did our non conference schedule stink? Yes. If the Big Ten only played 8 conference games and Maryland was on the schedule as a fourth non conference game from the ACC (if they never joined the Big Ten), would Michigan’s non conference schedule look worse than Tennessee or Alabama? No. Let’s just treat Maryland like they’re from the ACC and they are just as good of an opponent as Texas or Pitt.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:32 PM ^
If only we had scheduled Washington again we might be ranked ahead of Clemson who we will still jump ahead of if both teams win out.
The argument for a better non-con is for the fans not this initial ranking.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:51 PM ^
Ok, which scenario would you prefer?
A. Play 3 absolutely piece of shit worthless teams in our OOC. No fun away game trips to places like Washington, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. No fun home games against teams like Washington, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. Then be ranked #5 in the initial playoff rankings.
B. Get to watch Michigan play teams like Washington, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. at home. On the return trip get to see Michigan play @ Washington, Texas, Oklahoma, etc. with good friends, create lifetime memories, get to see new college campuses, new football traditions, new tailgate experiences. Then be ranked #4 in the initial college football rankings?
Sign me up for B. And for anyone that selects A based on avoiding a loss to a team like Washington, Texas, Oklahoma, etc., do you think that same Michigan team that's not good enough to beat that OOC team is going to run the table for the rest of their schedule?
LOL at anyone that would prefer option A above.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:02 PM ^
Ah, so you literally agree with me: The argument for scheduling one of those teams is for the fan experience not for playoff positioning.
Michigan being ranked 5th behind Clemson is trivial as Michigan will leapfrog Clemson if both teams win out.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:07 PM ^
Oh, but some of these geniuses think the same team that's going to lose to UCLA is going to woop Ohio State and Georgia.
Our ooc is absolutely why we aren't in the Top 4. However, it won't matter one bit if we go undefeated.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:12 PM ^
No. No one thinks that. Just that it doesn't make a difference. If Michigan loses to UCLA and wins out, they are in the playoffs. Same as going undefeated with their best OOC game being UCONN.
The only difference is fan experience. Of course everyone would have rather beaten a shitty ND team over CSU this year. But the ultimate impact would be trivial in terms of the playoffs.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:08 PM ^
So you are saying your friends will only go with you to cool places?
November 1st, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^
My friends won't go with me anywhere. :)
November 1st, 2022 at 9:28 PM ^
This year's OOC game was originally UCLA, I believe. Which would have greatly upped our schedule strength. It's weak sauce that we backed out.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^
An 8-0 Michigan team with a win over UCLA instead of one of the bottom 10 SP+ teams would be ranked #2 in Ohio State's place IMO.
This committee ranking tells me that an 11-1 Michigan with a loss to Ohio State will not make the playoff unless a whole bunch of dominoes fall the right way. Win and you're in and that's it.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:21 PM ^
Well, why would we make it with one loss to OSU?
What would our two best wins be then Penn State and Illinois. Maryland?
November 1st, 2022 at 9:51 PM ^
I disagree. Bet we would be #4 because of arbitrary committee BS. Why is UGA destroying Oregon being devalued? Some weird eye test argument about OSU's offense, which was not impressive vs. Iowa or PSU.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:39 PM ^
Is the goal to be #1 now or at the end?
How does our SOS hurt us in the end? What you want us to schedule Bama, USC and Clemson in the non conference...so if we beat all 3, run the table, and lose to OSU...we're still in?
What sense does that make?
Put UCLA back on the schedule, okay...now you're #4.
But you still have to beat OSU at the end of the year. UCLA wouldn't save us, lol.
Some of you need to relax and use your brain.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:31 PM ^
Yeah, if you're gonna be that patronizing, you better be bright yourself.
A win over UCLA and a close loss to unbeaten OSU would give M a very good chance to win the 4th CFP spot. Several 1-loss teams with good SOS have made the CFP.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:53 AM ^
You think Hawaii Uconn and CSU on an undefeated Bama schedule would matter fuck all. Buncha SEsCheep.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:18 PM ^
Tennessee will beat Georgia, Alabama will beat Tennessee, and the committee will award 3 playoff spots to the SEC.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:31 PM ^
No chance the committee will actually do that.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^
Really doesn't matter we will move up past the loser of Tennessee/Georgia game this weekend.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:23 PM ^
Herb street will be up there making excuses saying there’s a “case to be made the loser of that game should still be top 4”. I’m annoyed.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:23 PM ^
We will?
November 1st, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^
Right? I mean we play freaking Rutgers which will drop our SOR down… at this point it is only Beat OSU or bust. Our margin is razor thin even though we have the most balanced, complete team. Have you see Tennessee’s defense?
November 1st, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^
Indeed. Our margin is razor thin and there is the obvious SEC bias. I was shocked that Alabama didn't remain ahead of us after they lost to Tennessee. If Clemson can lose a game, I'm almost positive that the top 4 will be three SEC teams and the winner of Michigan/OSU.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:37 PM ^
And your final scenario will all but assure the death of a 4-team playoff with all of the huge TV markets in B1G country. Keep in mind, the B1G adds Los Angeles in 2024.
November 2nd, 2022 at 3:02 AM ^
Yes, I have a feeling a lot of one loss teams will be left out of the 4th place. More reasons that the 12 team playoff need to be implemented in 2024.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^
You sure about that?
November 1st, 2022 at 7:40 PM ^
Yeah I dont know about that. Historically they haven't punished top 4 teams losing to other top 4 teams. We're going to need Clemson to lose to ND to get into the top 4 next week unless either Tennessee or Georgia gets crushed this weekend.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
Does that mean we do the unthinkable and....gulp...root for Notre Dame?
It goes against everything I've ever believed in.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
I'll be rooting for ND this weekend - I'm vomiting as I'm typing this
November 1st, 2022 at 8:00 PM ^
Michigan just needs to win out but the committee just made alabamas 1 loss look better. They know what they are doing. I could totally see if it is a close tight game to the finish that they both remain in the top 4 or yes one goes to 5 and Michigan goes to 4. Michigan will jump Clemson if they both win out in my opinion. I like the number 5. Good the boys can play with a chip on their shoulder. They need to win out regardless IMO
November 1st, 2022 at 8:04 PM ^
This, we need to cheer for both ND (ugh) and for a blowout in the Tenn/UGA game, no matter who the winner is.
November 1st, 2022 at 9:33 PM ^
Nope. The loser of Tenn-Ga will slip out of the top 4, guaranteed, because the system rewards undefeated teams. Maybe only to 5 or 6, though.
November 2nd, 2022 at 1:54 AM ^
Watch out for 2 loss LSU.
im kinda kidding
November 1st, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^
Fucking atrocious. Herbie said it was the non-conference that put Clemson in front, but Clemson only played Georgia Tech, *Furman*, and Louisiana Tech. Meanwhile, they needed miracles to beat Wake Forest and Syracuse.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
Georgia tech isn’t a non-conference game for them.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
Good catch. I forgot. Their 3rd non-conference is at the end of the year with South Carolina.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:23 PM ^
This exactly. Clemson has a very similar strength of schedule but has performed much worse in the games played. Absolutely astonishing that they are ranked ahead of us.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^
Sagarin has Clemson's SOS at 65 and ours at 69. We have outscored our opponents by 242 (30.25 average) and Clemson has outscored their opponents by 138 (17.25 average). Our closest games were 13 point wins (Maryland, Iowa). Clemson's closest wins were by 6 points (Wake 2OT, FSU, Cuse). It is beyond absurd to rank them ahead of us when we have almost the same SOS but have dominated the schedule we played.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:51 PM ^
Fun fact: Herbstreit is Latin for "overrated college qb who couldn't even shill enough for his Alma Mater that he had to relocate to TN, The Cradle of Racism on most maps."
November 1st, 2022 at 8:07 PM ^
If you think TN is the cradle of racism I would avoid visiting Mississippi, Alabama, central Florida, and most of Louisiana. Also, South Carolina, though they gussy up their racism so it’s a little harder to detect.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^
It is fine. It doesn't matter. UT and Georgia play. Michigan and OSU are going to play. Alabama probably has to win out to have any chance at playoff. So much football left.
It is fun to talk about but it just doesn't matter at all at this point. If we don't beat OSU, we are heading to the Rose Bowl.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:06 PM ^
Exactly right. It will all sort out in November. But I will say, I don't understand the Clemson love. L guess I'm OK with the top 3 -maybe not in that exact order, but not so sure about 4 through 6
November 1st, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^
Can’t wait until Georgia pounds Tennessee this week and ND takes care of Clemson… I think ND is very underwhelming. That ought to tell you how I feel about Clemson.
November 1st, 2022 at 8:09 PM ^
Actually, ND is starting to play a lot better. I'll be pulling for them this weekend - and that's not easy to say. Almost turns my stomach saying that BS
November 1st, 2022 at 8:43 PM ^
Notre Dame is just beating some very mediocre to bad teams. Which does mean they could beat Clemson (mediocre) but I haven't seen anything that made me think Notre Dame is much improved. Also, Syracuse is trash.
November 2nd, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^
The problem with ND - obviously - is their coaching staff. If you follow Kiper and some of the other NFL "experts", they have a top 5 combination OL-DL - they can line up with anyone - including us. Their coaching staff is clueless on how to utilize those guys in the trenches plus they need a QB
November 1st, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
Garbage.
They're setting it up to have two SEC teams in the playoff again. Nothing more
November 1st, 2022 at 7:44 PM ^
This. If you put Michigan in 4, then it will be hard to justify leaving out 1 loss Michigan, especially if they beat Illinois and keep the game close with OSU.
I guess Defense does not matter. Style points matter. OSU beat who? ND is not even ranked. We dominated PSU unlike OSU. It is all about frigging style points.
November 2nd, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
I saw a tweet referencing that the committee sees OSU > MICH because OSU beat PSU through the air (where PSU is strong) and MICH beat PSU on the ground (where they are not good*)
*PSU's average opponent rush yards/game outside of the Michigan game is 94 yards/game (~12th in the country)...
November 1st, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
I know it doesn't matter but being behind Clemson is nuts.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:24 PM ^
It's kind of insulting. It fires me up for some reason to see that we aren't in the top 4.