Michigan 15.5 Favorite Over Maryland

Submitted by cweerapp on November 7th, 2017 at 11:45 AM

Most sites have Michigan as a 15.5 favorite over Maryland

As someone who just put a large amount of cash on Michigan to cover would love to get your thoughts

Positive Factors:

Maryland playing their 4th string QB
Michigan coming in playing their best ball of Big 10 season (covering easily against Minnesota and missing covering agianst Rutgers by 1)
Maryland not a particularly hostile place to play
Incentive to give DJ some karma for OSU two years ago

Thoughts?!

MGoBoard

Football

rice4114

November 7th, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^

If they had their starter 14 may have been their ceiling bit now im not sure? With Michigans offense I would never plan on us scoring more than 28.

28-7 seems reasonable. One weird score and Maryland could cover in that situation. Id say more likely Michigan gets into the 30s than Maryland in the teens. Nothing is a given with our passing game though.

Joined: 08/26/2010

MGoPoints: 47409

DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2017 at 12:53 PM ^

You can reasonably plan on us scoring over 28 when we just put 35 and 33 on two defenses that are much better than Maryland's. Rutgers just put 31 on Maryland. I like us to win a game that feels like our first real blowout of the year, something like 41-7.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

MH20

November 7th, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^

Caleb Henderson, who was injured in fall camp and has played very sparingly, was considered the third-stringer coming into the season, meaning Bortenschlager is really the fourth-stringer and Brand would be fifth-string.

Crazy.

Joined: 10/30/2008

MGoPoints: 40645

LSAClassOf2000

November 7th, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^

That's what I thought too, based mainly on Maryland blogs, but it proves yet again that the depth chart is not the depth chart per se for numerous reasons.

I know those words hurt Tim Brando, but I honestly believe they ring true.

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130669

DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^

easy cover

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

Everyone Murders

November 7th, 2017 at 11:57 AM ^

I think you were wise to take the over. Michigan will run at will on Maryland, and their offense (esp. at QB) is bedraggled. I think Durkin will turn that program around, but this year against Michigan?

They gonna die.

Joined: 12/14/2010

MGoPoints: 65552

RainbowSprings

November 7th, 2017 at 11:58 AM ^

The Terps are ranked 113th on offense, 101st on defense. What could go wrong?

Joined: 11/09/2010

MGoPoints: 13438

Hemlock Philosopher

November 7th, 2017 at 12:02 PM ^

Vegas has taken my clothes the last four weeks. I even had a 4-leg parlay with PSU, OSU, ND and Florida covering last week. Errr... Not good, Bob. With that caveat, I think we hammer Maryland. 38-6 or something close. 4th string QBs won't fare well versus this D.

That MSU @OSU line (14.5, last I checked Vegas Insider) seems like a trap. ND turnover fest aside, State just doesn't seem like a team that will get blown out unless they play Bama. Who knows? I am staying away.

Joined: 02/12/2009

MGoPoints: 9461

corundum

November 7th, 2017 at 12:18 PM ^

Dude, you bet on Florida to cover the game on the road after ridiculous distractions from firing their coach, and starting Zaire who has one good game his entire career? Not only that, but Missouri had dropped 4 TDs on Georgia recently and has been explosive on offense for the majority of the year.

Joined: 05/10/2012

MGoPoints: 47323

Hemlock Philosopher

November 8th, 2017 at 8:01 AM ^

Obviously it was a bad bet, but Mizzou is awful. They were 0-4 in conference and they got skunked by Purdue and have been handing out points like halloween candy. Florida is worse, I guess.

Joined: 02/12/2009

MGoPoints: 9461

GoBlueMAGNUS

November 7th, 2017 at 12:49 PM ^

You set your money on fire with the Florida pick

Joined: 08/17/2009

MGoPoints: 2242

smwilliams

November 7th, 2017 at 12:07 PM ^

Going to this game and I'd really like to see a stress free 2nd half which would constitute an easy cover in my mind.

We've seen this script, what, four or five times this year. Michigan scores between 28-35 points by running over and over again. Defense gives up 1-2 scoring drives, maybe one with a short field.

College football is weird, especially on the road, but this should end up being 30-10 or something like that.

FWIW, road games against unranked opponents under Harbaugh...

2015:

at Maryland (28-0)

at Minnesota (29-26)

at Indiana (48-41, 2OT)

at Penn State (28-16)

2016:

at Rutgers (78-0)

at Michigan State (32-23)

at Iowa (GRR)

2017:

at Purdue (28-10)

at Indiana (27-20, OT)

So, 8-1 in road games against unranked teams with an average MOV of 14 (with Rutgers excluded).

Joined: 08/20/2010

MGoPoints: 9917

TruBluWolv55

November 7th, 2017 at 12:14 PM ^

Dilly, Dilly

Joined: 11/28/2010

MGoPoints: 8442

ska4punkkid

November 7th, 2017 at 12:23 PM ^

So how much money did you put down? How much is a "large amount"? $100? $1,000? $10,000? $1,000,000,000??

Joined: 07/09/2015

MGoPoints: 11928

Maizeblue11

November 7th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^

$1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,0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Joined: 11/29/2016

MGoPoints: -99998443

ska4punkkid

November 7th, 2017 at 1:36 PM ^

the zeros just kept going, all the way off my screen! Now that is a large amount of money

Joined: 07/09/2015

MGoPoints: 11928

Maizeblue11

November 7th, 2017 at 12:21 PM ^

I got us losing to Maryland by at least 70. They have a juggernaut offense and a future NFL Hall of Fame QB starting this week. reverse psychology

Joined: 11/29/2016

MGoPoints: -99998443

GordonG

November 7th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^

Mich... 45

Terps... 9

Joined: 11/13/2016

MGoPoints: 2969

lhglrkwg

November 7th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^

Maryland probably isn't breaking 10 points with a 4th string QB, so all you're likely betting on is Michigan's suddenly good rushing offense to get to 28. I'll take that all day

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87985

ska4punkkid

November 7th, 2017 at 1:37 PM ^

Unfortunately, every team has put 10+ points on us this year

Joined: 07/09/2015

MGoPoints: 11928

lhglrkwg

November 7th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^

We've held a lot of teams to around 10 points and Maryland is fielding a 4th string QB. Certainly won't be surprised to see Maryland at or beneath 10 points

Florida 3
Cinci 14
AF 13
Purdue 10
MSU 14
Rutgers 14
Minnesota 10

It's really not a bold statement to say we should expect to hold a Maryland team on their 4th string QB to 10 points or less (assuming the offense doesn't give them any gift points like we did for Florida)

Joined: 07/03/2008

MGoPoints: 87985

ska4punkkid

November 8th, 2017 at 1:20 AM ^

Totally. Our D is solid and I’m not complaining. But even lowly teams are scoring in double digits against us each game. Also, for the purpose of betting and spreads, Florida scored 17

Joined: 07/09/2015

MGoPoints: 11928

mrkid

November 7th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^

That seems low. Maryland's defense is worse than Minnesota's in S&P Rankings but their offense is better. However, I don't think that takes into consideration the 4th (5th?) string QB making the start.

Maryland's rush defense is better according to S&P but that doesn't mean much. The Maryland defense is going to get tired very quickly from being on the field so much due to their offense going 3-and-out every possession.

I think Michigan wins by 20+.

Joined: 09/12/2011

MGoPoints: 9440

DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^

They're not just worse in S&P...they're 57 places worse. This Maryland defense is baaaaaad.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

mrkid

November 7th, 2017 at 1:39 PM ^

But their rush defense is better than Minnesota.

Maryland rush defense is ranked 59. Minnesota is 100. Maryland should be able to stop our run better than Minnesota did, which should force us to pass more.

Maryland pass defense is ranked 92. Minnesota is 31.

Overall Maryland's defense is bad but the question will be if we can take advantage of that bad pass defense, if we need to. Against Minnesota, we didn't have to test that well ranked Minnesota pass defense, at all.

I see us struggling early on versus Maryland until we start to wear them down because of their offense getting bounced so quickly. I think we start to see the running game get going mid 2nd quarter and then it's on and back to business as usual.

Joined: 09/12/2011

MGoPoints: 9440

DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^

But their IsoPPP is really bad too, so I still expect us to hit some big runs, even if we aren't getting 6 yards every run play with ease.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2017 at 2:12 PM ^

But their IsoPPP is really bad too, so I still expect us to hit some big runs, even if we aren't getting 6 yards every run play with ease.

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2017 at 2:14 PM ^

Sir, I would like to talk to you about Maryland's defense's IsoPPP

Joined: 11/26/2014

MGoPoints: 74183

mrkid

November 7th, 2017 at 2:17 PM ^

But what about their IsoPPP?

Joined: 09/12/2011

MGoPoints: 9440

jgoblue11

November 7th, 2017 at 12:36 PM ^

If we hit good weather, I think we win by 20-30 points, maybe ever more considering the QB situation at Maryland.

As for OSU and MSU, I am completely lost as to how OSU can be 14.5 favorites over MSU. I think MSU wins that game, and OSU is 9-3 going into THE GAME. At this point for us, a win over Wisconsin would be a better win than over Ohio State as far as resume right? I know OSU has literally owned us, but I really want this Wisconsin win! Fuck OSU. We will beat them. Harbaugh is going to put a huge emphasis on winning that game. Damn I am pumped for Football!

Joined: 09/20/2017

MGoPoints: 1902

The Mad Hatter

November 7th, 2017 at 1:21 PM ^

Play the 2's against Maryland and Wisconsin if the 1's need some rest.

We're not winning the B1G, so it's a one game season as far as I'm concerned.

/OSU fan in my office feels the same.

Joined: 02/17/2015

MGoPoints: 112109

ijohnb

November 7th, 2017 at 1:45 PM ^

not a one game season. Giving Wisconsin its first loss of the season would be a big win and would continue momentum into the Ohio State game. Also, if we won out it is better than a 50/50 shot we would play in a NY6 bowl, which means something, even if people insist that it doesn't in fits of rage.

Joined: 09/21/2009

MGoPoints: 69986

MGoClimb

November 7th, 2017 at 3:10 PM ^

It'll be interesting to see how big of a test Iowa can give Wisconsin this weekend. Iowa can be a completely different team when they're on the road, but it looks like Wisconsin may actually have to play teams with a pulse on back to back weeks.

Joined: 07/31/2012

MGoPoints: 9026

maize-blue

November 7th, 2017 at 12:39 PM ^

To hell with MSU.

Joined: 01/10/2013

MGoPoints: 44662

MNWolverine2

November 7th, 2017 at 12:47 PM ^

Why is everyone under assumption 4th string will start? Sounds like Max is a game-time decision and trending to start. If anything, I'd rather him start then the guy that finally moved the offense against last game and can run option with their 2 good RBs.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terps/tracking-the-terps/bs-sp-maryl…

Joined: 08/07/2017

MGoPoints: 3100

Hotel Putingrad

November 7th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^

Feels like a 33-10 kind of game.

Joined: 12/10/2014

MGoPoints: 212412

war-dawg69

November 7th, 2017 at 6:23 PM ^

Did'nt Rutgers just put 31 on them?. I think our offense is just a wee bit better than Rutgers. I think Michigan should be favored by far more and look for Michigan to push past 40 easily.

Joined: 10/07/2016

MGoPoints: 3061

Year of Revenge II

November 7th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^

I would play to cover.

More improvement from Peters and the offensive line.

Joined: 11/12/2013

MGoPoints: 9188

Michifornia

November 7th, 2017 at 1:02 PM ^

Before playing Wisconsin and osu. Hopefully, the run game continues to show strength and Peters gets more chances to pass. It's on the road so a win is a win at this stage. Hoping to see a blowout.

GO BLUE!!

Joined: 10/03/2013

MGoPoints: 13813

bronxblue

November 7th, 2017 at 1:13 PM ^

It's probably about right. My two concerns if I was betting is Michigan isn't going to do anything crazy before Wisconsin and OSU if they get up early, so I could see this being a boring game where they just bless the clock, and second, it's the first road game for Peters and who knows if he makes a couple mistakes that might stall out drives. Still, that seems about right.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171857

Mgoczar

November 7th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^

MSU can win against OSU. I'd put odds at 40%

Just like always, we underestimate MSU. Leweke is actually a good QB i'd want for M and their WR (Felton?) is making plays whcih we also lack (yet again, how the F is Dantonio doing this????).

Can we say the same for M? Not yet.

Oh and we cover easily because Peters throws couple of TDs and Higdon wrecks Maryland D to shreds.

Bring on Wiscy and noodlearm Horni.

Joined: 09/29/2017

MGoPoints: 4198

uferfan

November 7th, 2017 at 1:33 PM ^

on Saturday afternoon. If there's a prop bet on that, I may put a shilling on the meteor.

Joined: 02/04/2015

MGoPoints: 24592

bronxblue

November 7th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^

It should be pointed out that Felton is a true junior; their other top receiver (Stewart) is a RS Sophomore. Michigan has Grant Perry and that's about it for upperclassmen receivers of note. And Michigan is working with their 3rd-string QB; put Damion Terry out there and let's see how they look.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171857

Mgoczar

November 7th, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^

No directly comparing M. Thats an older receiver (Freshman receivers suck).

We will most definitely improve - just like our run blocking has improved.

I'm just more incredulous at MSU's path. I was led wrongly to believe MSU was junk by this blog or other media. Their record indicates they were better entering and they keep improving too (they are young and Lewerke has been on fire past two games).

I also hope DPJ or Black is better than Felton like next year. Can't wait to see offense firing on all cylinders!

Joined: 09/29/2017

MGoPoints: 4198

YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

November 7th, 2017 at 4:59 PM ^

This is not a shot at Dantonio or being a homer - they were better than their record last year. IMO, they have over achieved this year for several reasons: 1. Lack of injuries - the OL and front 7 have avoided big injuries, otherwise the depth does not exist to backfill. 2. Turnovers - the 5-0 vs UM and 3-1 vs PSU were the difference in games won by 4 and 3 pts vs teams with better rosters. 3. Lewerke - he has dramatically improved since last year and that is crucial because their running game and STs cannot generate points. Those three things did not go in their favor last year and the team delivered 3-9 with several close losses, but the close games have gone in their favor this year. Even out the high variance factors and MSU is a .500 squad the last 2 years.

Joined: 11/01/2012

MGoPoints: 18076

umchicago

November 8th, 2017 at 3:51 AM ^

we have other upper classmen WRs, they just have flamed out.

Joined: 02/05/2009

MGoPoints: 33667

SFBlue

November 7th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^

I think a 14-point spread is right. Michigan has an untested QB starting his first road game. Durkin knows JH's tendencies very well.

Joined: 11/02/2009

MGoPoints: 15699

mGrowOld

November 7th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^

I will have my fat ass planted at the bar in the sports book at the Wynn Casino starting at 8:30am and running through about 5pm (have Tony Bennett tickets - yes he's still alive allegedly) so I'm wondering if anybody has anything they really like this weekend.

Of course I'll play the Browns +12 against the Lions on Sunday. The Lions will win, obviously, but I think coming off a bye and the Lions playing on Monday night will lead to a closer game than expected. Or at least I hope so.

Joined: 10/04/2010

MGoPoints: 213315