Michigan's self-assessment of where it stands on NIL vs. competitors

Submitted by Communist Football on January 12th, 2024 at 5:20 PM

Chris Balas has an article up ($) about various goings-on. Subscribe to On3 for more details. One bit that caught my attention was this blurry snapshot of a slide, apparently given in a presentation to donors, in which Michigan executives expressed their assessment of where M stands on NIL collective funding vs. competitors:

It's hard to read, but it appears to break out NIL programs into three tiers:

  • Tier 1 ($10M+): OSU, ND, Texas, Alabama, Missouri, Louisville, Texas A&M, Miami (YTM)
  • Tier 2 ($5M-10M): Nebraska, MSU, Washington, Georgia, Kentucky, USC, Oklahoma State, South Carolina
  • Tier 3 ($1M-$5M): Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, UCLA, Iowa, Indiana, UNC, Clemson, Vanderbilt

It has been reported that Michigan is seeking to raise $6-10 million this year for its Champions Circle campaign, which would elevate M to the second tier. But ti appears to need to get above $10 million to compete with the big boys.

Calling all Wolverine capitalists! Let's get it done!

MGoBoard
Football

jdemille9

January 12th, 2024 at 5:23 PM ^

How in the fuck can schools like Missouri and Louisville be in the top tier but not Michigan? And Nebraska in tier 2?!

I'm all for staying out of the 'pay before play' realm but c'mon, there is no legitimate reason Michigan should not be in the top tier for NIL collectives. 

Joined: 01/29/2011

MGoPoints: 8523

meeashagin

January 12th, 2024 at 6:35 PM ^

Exactly we have that in Ross and many more. What's happening here is Michigan is keeping their donors away from the collectives. They want to control the money they don't believe players should get paid, clearly.

Looks like they want the fans to pay for the games and to pay the players while they keep a boatload of money off to the side.

 

If I'm a big-time player this would be why I put you in my top 3 but never choose you because I'm sure the players share this info with them.

 

Joined: 03/25/2018

MGoPoints: 5056

alum96

January 13th, 2024 at 11:53 AM ^

Michigan has plenty of fucking rich people as alumni.  Getting to $7M a year shouldn't be rocket science.  Most living alumns and aside Harvard and a few others I'd bet Michigan is top 6-7 in wealth of living alumni.  Effin Louisville is ahead of us - effin MSU? 

This was a charmed year - we paid decent rates for a lot of guys at the right time.  But that was like 6-8 guys. OSU is blowing the doors out on this right now seeing how it worked, copying Michigan for upperclassmen WHILE doing the straight up pay for play for HS kids to keep those high end classes.  

Again - Louisville! Missouri!

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82515

BoFan

January 12th, 2024 at 6:57 PM ^

What’s missing from that diagram is that there are two types of NIL. There is the type of NIL used as an inducement, which is what got Florida State in trouble, and which is where kids are driving up in Lamborghinis for their commitment announcement.  And, there is the type of NIL used to compensate players after they make a School decision and for retention. This later type is legal.

There are still lots of rules on the NCAA books that say inducement NIL is illegal. I don’t know the exact numbers but approximately 80% of teams are using the NIL for inducement:  “If you come here, you will get X dollars.”  Since this has been going on for a couple years now, everybody’s been wondering what the NCAA is going to do about it. It seems Florida State is the first case. Hopefully they all get sanctions. Some of those schools are still going to do whatever they can to hide it, just like they hid the bag man, and not get caught.  

Michigan, from everything I understand, is not using it for inducement.  Players might tell a recruit what they got after they signed. But I’m pretty sure Michigan can’t make any up front offers to get them to sign.  The last big collective raise at Michigan specifically mentioned retention.  

Given these two types of NIL, not being able to offer upfront money in the transfer portal or in recruiting, like 80% of the other teams, could be a bigger reason for our lack of success than the actual size of the pool. 

Joined: 03/09/2012

MGoPoints: 19940

bighouseinmate

January 13th, 2024 at 9:32 AM ^

Texas too. I’m still waiting for Texas to get at least investigated for its spending $60k on one recruit for an official visit. Anyone who doesn’t think any of that money went directly to the recruit, either in the form of cash or some extravagant “swag bag” is just not really paying attention or caring about what is going on at some of these schools. 

Joined: 12/19/2008

MGoPoints: 4969

LKLIII

January 12th, 2024 at 10:55 PM ^

Maybe, but over time that potential disadvantage SHOULD erode significantly. (At least for proven transfer players & very confident high school recruits.)

Why?

Growing datasets that point to clear precedents, which I presume aren’t REQUIRED to be confidential.
 

So over time, you’ve got either a recruiting coordinator at Schembechler Hall (if it’s allowed) or a centralized contact within the NIL constellations who can quickly pull data & create an easy to read 1 or 2 page PDF/brochure outlining NIL scenarios that are tailored to each recruits profile (position, seniority, % of snaps played, academic honors, PFF grade, performance level—starter vs 2nd team conference vs all conference vs 2nd team all American, etc.)  Because presumably, a kids NIL cash won’t come from ONE source, it’ll be an aggregate of several sources. Maybe $X just for being on the roster that all kids get, $Y because an NIL fund gives a stipend to everyone in the position group, $Z because he’s an all BigTen caliber player, etc )  So when a kid visits, they get an NIL info sheet w easily digestible tables & graphs—hell, maybe even an app or online calculator—that takes into account his position & then games out a few different hypotheticals to show the historic NIL outcomes based on what variables he toggles.

 

It ain’t a guarantee, but it’s a robust enough model using real life data that it’s pretty dang close to one. An analogous situation might be kids looking at rookie contracts in the NFL draft. Yes, the numbers change year to year a bit & there’s no guarantee a kid will go #1 overall, #20 overall, #40 overall, etc. But if a kid is reasonably confident about the range in which he’ll go in the draft, he’ll have a pretty good idea of what his contract will look like, simply based on recent comps. 

Joined: 11/06/2013

MGoPoints: 8927

Logan88

January 12th, 2024 at 5:30 PM ^

I get the feeling (and that is all it is, a feeling) that a significant number of UM grads (especially the wealthier ones) consider themselves to be "above" being interested enough in sports to support an NIL collective. They probably are donating to NPR and their local PBS station but not the athletic department or an NIL.

Pass the scones, Jeeves.

EDIT: The fact that UM is on the same NIL level as Wisconsin, Iowa, Indiana and Vanderbilt is massively disappointing. Assuming these projections are correct, of course.

Joined: 01/05/2009

MGoPoints: 8078

blueheron

January 12th, 2024 at 5:39 PM ^

"I get the feeling (and that is all it is, a feeling) that a significant number of UM grads (especially the wealthier ones) consider themselves to be "above" being interested enough in sports to support an NIL collective. They probably are donating to NPR and their local PBS station ..."

So, increased alum wealth correlates with NPR and PBS contributions? I don't see it. I suppose it would make sense if you believe in the widespread existence of liberal elites.

- - -

Aside, who are the "executives" referenced?

Joined: 03/26/2009

MGoPoints: 30936

Bluesince89

January 12th, 2024 at 6:12 PM ^

lol those definitely exist in the Michigan fan base. I remember meeting my nephew’s girlfriend. They both attended Michigan. He was a sports fan. She was not and told me that she didn’t come to school to learn fight songs when I asked her how she liked Ann Arbor and if she had been to any games. Which ok, great. Maybe you want to cure cancer or solve the climate crisis. I don’t think they’re mutually exclusive - you can like sports and do that. But she was a comms major and last I saw on Facebook, she was working at some ad agency shuffling paper. She did ask for donations to the local NPR station for her birthday lol (I did not donate. I’m as liberal as they come and I hate NPR) 

 

Joined: 09/14/2008

MGoPoints: 14739

MNWolverine2

January 12th, 2024 at 5:36 PM ^

Michigan St. does actually have more young VERY wealthy alums than Michigan does.  Even better for them, they live in state.

Michigan's default is Stephen Ross.  MSU have 3 billionaire alums living in state along.  Michigan has a lot of wealthy people living all over the country that don't give 2 you know whats about using their hard earned money on paying college athletes.

Billionaire mortages guys?  They'll pay.

Joined: 08/07/2017

MGoPoints: 3093

TheCube

January 12th, 2024 at 5:25 PM ^

Ross and Kotick should open up their wallets a bit and bankroll the team. Shouldn’t be that difficult considering they fund a lot of other shit. 

Joined: 12/19/2018

MGoPoints: 31596

RobM_24

January 12th, 2024 at 5:27 PM ^

I'd be interested in knowing how much of this is because of Michigan shooting themselves in the foot by being selective on who they take money from. As opposed to say, Miami, who definitely has no issue taking every dollar floated their way.

With Michigan's reach, it's hard for me to believe the opportunities aren't there to be on the same level as Missouri, Louisville, etc. 

Joined: 01/27/2014

MGoPoints: 63596

RobM_24

January 12th, 2024 at 5:34 PM ^

Well, the majority of the guys we won with were the remnants of the pre-NIL era. A couple years from now when the team is comprised of all NIL-era players will be interesting. Hopefully the results are the same, but it'll be tough (or better yet, we just get a real NIL program going).

Joined: 01/27/2014

MGoPoints: 63596

GoBlue1530

January 12th, 2024 at 5:54 PM ^

Wasn't Quinn Ewers the first major NIL era kid and he's the same class as JJ? Thus, juniors and younger are NIL kids? (JJ, Will, Donovan, Grant, Graham, Loveland, Semaj) 

I'm not here to minimize Jenkins (513th), Harrell (294th), Corum (129th), Josh Wallace (NA), Braiden McGregor (123rd)  Keegan (178th), Zinter (265th), Mike Barrett (751st), Mikey (598th), Junior Colson (90th), Rod Moore (506th). 

Those guys, as a whole, aren't some level of recruit that Michigan is incapable of getting in the last two classes. It'll of course be very hard to duplicate the process because it always will be approaching it like money ball, but I don't think pre NIL kids are a level of kid we won't get again. 

Joined: 12/31/2018

MGoPoints: 3139

alum96

January 13th, 2024 at 12:00 PM ^

Pls keep in mind Michigan is not immune from their high level sophomores and juniors being targeted by these schools in tier 1.  That hasn't happened yet but if this path continues and the tier 1 expands even more and more $$ is sloshed around the Will Johnson of 2026 could be out the door to a higher paying program after sophomore year.  

If I am at Notre Dame or whomever up there right now I am calling Graham Grant and Johnson now.  Oh I know it's illegal to contact people not in the portal wink wink. 

It's a real danger.

Joined: 04/28/2012

MGoPoints: 82515

Maizinator

January 12th, 2024 at 5:58 PM ^

But even the 2020 class was ranked 12th overall 2021 class was ranked 13th (247).   The pattern is this staff is getting very good players in the 3 and 4 star ranks and turning them into monsters.

Not disagreeing that the NIL program needs to be fixed.  Just really a shoutout to the staff that they pulled it off despite a significant disadvantage relative to other top programs. 

Joined: 12/11/2013

MGoPoints: 98471

mwolverine1

January 12th, 2024 at 5:30 PM ^

Thanks for sharing. We've too often conflated two things with regards to NIL:

  1. Overall payroll
  2. Payroll allocation (i.e. talent retention vs talent acquisition, whether via recruiting or portal)

Michigan made a bold move towards funding retention over acquisition, but that is only a payroll strategy and can only do so much to make up for an overall payroll deficit.

This shows we successfully pulled off the championship by playing moneyball. I think the university agrees however that it is incredibly difficult to maintain that level of success, especially once others copy your strategy.

Joined: 11/23/2009

MGoPoints: 13592