M -9 1/2 vs. TCU early line
This line is taken from an article. https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/ncaaf/michigan-vs-tcu-cfp-semifinal-opening-odds-wolverines-ats-favorites-over-horned-frogs-fiesta-bowl/
Such early lines can move significantly.
December 4th, 2022 at 6:12 PM ^
Same source has UGA - 6 1/2 vs. Ohio hairless nuts
December 4th, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
hairless, poisonous nuts. even a dog won't eat 'em.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^
Have you tried rubbing peanut butter on them? It works for just about anything, or so a friend told me.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:36 PM ^
I wouldn't try one with bacon on it.
Fuck ohio.
December 4th, 2022 at 6:35 PM ^
That seems too close. I'll be surprised if OSU can hang with Georgia for four quarters.
December 4th, 2022 at 6:50 PM ^
That was my feeling, but when a game seems so obvious, it's often a sucker bet.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:02 PM ^
It seems obvious to us because our team has dominated OSU on the line of scrimmage two years running, and Georgia figures to do the same.
But if you're a fan of one of the 11 teams OSU beat, you might think they're a dominant team that had an off day against Michigan.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
Depends if JSN plays...
He's an elite slot and basically makes up for their pathetic run game and soft O-line of all tackles which is built for pass protection. With JSN, the numbers and alignment of your defense change, especially now with the emergence of Marvin Harrison Jr. as the best outside WR in college football.
I expect UGA to grind them, especially with their run game and beast TE's, but if JSN plays, OSU's offense is a different animal than what we saw.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
Exactly. If there were much suspicion JSN wouldn't play, the line would nice probably 3-5 points in Georgia's favor. As would ours if they thought Corum would be back.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
UGA Head Coach Kirby Smart has 4 weeks to prepare for OSU and he'll have his team ready to crack those bucknuts. The UGA line is too low, Dawgs by more than 10 points, likely much higher.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^
Hmmmm Point spread ? I think you forgot that OSU's "ethics professor" will likely break down GA every which way a "ethics professor" can. I'm guessing that the "Professor" may not have any other obligation, so he may actually be auditing the Buckeyes and their locker facilities to determine the teams "ethical standards" before and during the game ? go dawgs ...
Go Blue!
December 4th, 2022 at 8:42 PM ^
You watch UGAs secondary yesterday? Will JSN be back? If so, I could see Harrison and JSN giving them A LOT of problems.
December 4th, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^
seems about right. TCU winning would be an upset. It will be interesting to see if OSU, with some key players back, puts up a fight against GA.
December 4th, 2022 at 6:56 PM ^
It will be a lot more interesting if OSU is destroyed right from the start. Probably won't happen but that would be interesting to everyone outside of Ohio
December 4th, 2022 at 7:23 PM ^
Don't underestimate UGA QB Stetson Bennett. He looked sharp against LSU and UGA had that game won at halftime. UGA has the talent to stop the OSU passing attack like Michigan did and they now have the blueprint on how to do it.
December 4th, 2022 at 6:33 PM ^
That’s a pretty stout line, but the semis have not always been super-competitive games. Looking at you ND and Sparty.
December 4th, 2022 at 6:35 PM ^
We also were in a not competitive semifinal.
December 4th, 2022 at 6:51 PM ^
Looking through the wiki page on the playoffs, I count exactly three out of sixteen semifinal games that were won by one score or less. So the vast majority of semifinal games weren't all that competitive.
Exactly half of the semifinal winners won by twenty or more, too.
The championship game tended to be a bit more competitive, with three out of eight games ending up within one score. However, another three of those games were won by more than twenty points.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:05 PM ^
UM -9.5 feels a bit much to me. I suspect the line on NYE will have dropped to UM -8 or UM-7.
#GoBlue
December 4th, 2022 at 7:30 PM ^
I was going to say the opposite.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:47 PM ^
ESPN FPI and SP+ track closely with the lines typically and have this as a 8.5, 9 point line respectively.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:40 PM ^
I'd expect that's because those models inform the opening line and how bettors behave.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:21 PM ^
I know we’ve won the two most important games of the season without him, but we’re still without our best player which Sp+ and FPI don’t account for.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:05 PM ^
It’s currently at -9 on Bovada. I suspect it’ll probably go down a little more actually, maybe hover around -7.5/-8 most of the month. We’ll see though.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:11 PM ^
Feels a wee bit high but I was expecting anywhere from 5-8.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:20 PM ^
TCU's QB/WR combo gives me pause, but I have a hard time seeing them stop Michigan on defense consistently.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:48 PM ^
Johnson is really coming into his element and will get another month of practice giving us a bigger cb to matchup with their best player.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:50 PM ^
^ Agree
Compare O'Connell- Jones) Purdue >
( Duggan- et all ) > TCU >
( Stroud- Harrison et all ). Back Door U
Our D can contain Duggan.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:49 PM ^
Never played Horned Frogs before. The nickname is a little creepy. They were impressive even in a loss yesterday. Effort ++. Lots of comebacks this season so they do not rattle when they fall behind. QB is a warrior. A little scary tbh. Not a gambler so I will take a win at any spread.
December 4th, 2022 at 7:59 PM ^
It says something that they were also in a position to have “lots of 4th quarter comebacks”. There is a reason they were actually 1 pt dogs to KSU in their champ game despite KSU being with their backup.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:06 PM ^
QB Chucks up moon balls on nearly every down. Offensive scheme is confusing to me- throw it up and pray
December 4th, 2022 at 8:44 PM ^
I was just looking up defensive stats. Michigan is 3 in rush defense behind Georgia and James Madison. In passing defense, Michigan is 22.
I could not locate TCU in the top 50 on either. I’m wondering if those stats are indicating the line on the game. Michigan holds the ball, smashes 4-7 yard gains repeatedly, occasional passes to keep the D honest.
It’s almost predictable. Maybe that’s what Vegas is seeing.
December 5th, 2022 at 1:12 AM ^
So I did a bit of research:
TCU
Total Offense: #21
Passing Offense: #40
Yards Per Completion: #23
Rushing Offense:#19
Yards Per Rush Attempt: #15
Total Defense:#72
Running Defense: #66
Yards per Rush Attempt: #62
Passing Defense: #79
Completion % Def: #10
Opponent Yards per Completion: #88
TCU has played 3 Top 50 Defenses (K State 2x, Texas and then Iowa State)
According to their average offense, they underperformed in the Texas and Iowa State games despite the scores. They were well under their average output. They did about avg vs K State #50 in total offense.
Despite scoring 62 points (due to Iowa State mistakes), the has 100 yards less in total offense than average. Iowa State is the best defense they faced at #4 in total defense.
TCU has faced one top 50 passing defense. This is also Iowa State (#6) they threw for 212 yards well below their average of 273
TCU has faced two Top 50 Rushing Defenses, they had 115 and 131 yards in each game for an average of 4.4 Yards per Carry. They normally average 200 Rushing yards and 5.3 YPC
The TCU defense has faced 8 top 50 offenses (9 if you count K State twice). In 3 of those games they held the team to below their average output. In 4 of them they held them to around their average output and in two of the games they allowed offenses to exceed their average output. They are allowing 400 total yards of offenses on average to Top 50 offenses. If you exclude the Texas game (which is an anomaly) they allow 425 yards of offense.
So their defense is not great to say the least, but here is where it really falls off:
TCU has faced 6 Top 50 rushing offenses. In those games against running backs (I excluded WR and QB runs), they have allowed 4.75 Y/C, 5.42 Y/C, 6.35 Y/C, 2.42 Y/C, 5.82 Y/C, 8 Y/C. Horrible numbers if you exclude the Texas game. On average they are allowing 5.46 Y/C vs Top 50 rushing teams. Over 6 yards per carry if you exclude the Texas game. Also a note, they allowed 7.96 Y/C to Iowa State, Iowa State is the #117th worst rushing offense in the nation. None of these B12 teams have an O-line like Michigan has imo.
They have some playmakers
December 5th, 2022 at 3:16 AM ^
Where are your initial numbers from? Are those just total yards numbers? Or something else?
December 4th, 2022 at 8:58 PM ^
Seems like it's time for the oddsmakers to establish two point spreads for M games. The first half would probably be about even or favoring TCU by 3 perhaps, and the second half -12 (or whatever).
December 4th, 2022 at 9:28 PM ^
Line is about the same as our games against Penn State and Iowa. I think that's about the caliber of opponent TCU is. Can they beat us? Yes. Would we win 8 out of 10? Yes.