Let's Talk Program (not Season) Expectations
First, a bit of background. My Michigan fandom started around 1980, when I was old enough to be a fan of sports and teams. Obviously, the wheels started falling off for M in 2008. So my expectations for the team involve the period 1980 through 2007, Cue the research.
For the period, M went 256-82-5, including bowl games, for a win pct. of 75.36% . We won 3 out of 4 overall.
Against ND, we went 10-11-1 (47.73%)
Against OSU, we went 15-12-1 (55.36%)
Against MSU, we went 21-7 (75.0%)
I did not compile stats for the rivalry with Illinois.
We won or shared the Big Ten title 13 times in those 28 seasons (46.43%)
So, what does this mean for me? My expectations for the regular season are 9-3 / 10-2, hopefully with a bowl win if we finish 9-3. In the Harbaugh era, we have hit that mark 3 out of 4 seasons. Cool. I'm good with that. Ten win seasons are great. Anyone thinking Michigan is going to go 11-1 or better consistently with our schedule AND many teams circling the game as the biggest on the schedule is nuts.
But I also expect to beat ND about half the time, OSU somewhat less (given how good they are right now), and beating MSU 3-out-of-4. Also, I think given the difficulty of the Big Ten East, I'd be okay with winning at least a share of the title around 35% of the time. None of that is happening. And that's where my negative feelings for the Harbaugh era essentially come from.
Share your expectations for Michigan, and how that works with your attitudes about the era we're in now.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:14 PM ^
10 win floor, a B1G championship at least once every five years, semi-infrequent trips to the CFP where we don’t get embarrassed.
Harbaugh looked like he was on his way to doing it, until he wasn’t anymore.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:28 PM ^
Pretty much agree with this.
- 10+ wins
- 50/50 with OSU (but let's be real I'd take 1/3 right now)
- 80% against MSU
- Conference Title every 3-4 years (Assume we have to beat OSU to get there, and then we beat the West champ most times)
- A playoff berth every once in a while
I'll add that recruiting needs to be at a top ten level. Not a results-based expectation, but it will affect results.
I give Jim 3 years free to get what he wants in place, considering where the program was. My clock for the above started last year.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:46 PM ^
So..… you're talking about this guy?
October 20th, 2019 at 10:50 PM ^
I'll give birth before this cursed image becomes a reality.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:54 PM ^
Are there midwives for male births? Because I'd bet there's some boosters who already have that image in mind.
October 21st, 2019 at 5:49 PM ^
Who's ur daddy?
October 20th, 2019 at 11:17 PM ^
You know you want it.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:30 AM ^
I’ll cheer for those kids, but by god I’ll disown michigan’s athletic department and never donate again if they hire Urban Meyer.
October 21st, 2019 at 5:57 AM ^
We are not hiring a man who covered up a domestic abuser. There is no way that happens.
October 21st, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^
No worries, USC will be in the CFP next year.
October 21st, 2019 at 11:01 AM ^
Yeah let's get this sleazebag! Great idea! Have some respect yourself, goddamn. He'd probably hire OJ as a running backs coach.
October 21st, 2019 at 6:00 PM ^
Fuck me runnin'... and sideways... but I actually agree with Spicoli (Toboggan) on this post, except for the time (yrs) allowed to put it into practice...
This is year 5... not year 3 or 4. I think there's culpability and liability on Harbaugh; he didn't have a good vision of the team when he took over. Otherwise he wouldn't be screwing around with scheme changes and supporting cast.
We shouldn't be seeing a lot of the mistakes both on the field, and on the sideline that we are... at this point there should also be consistency and an identity both on O and on D. The D is a good example of consistency... at times they lock shit down and are awe inspiring, then in the next half or quarter they come out flat as hell and are shredded.
I just don't see Harbaugh turning this around...
October 20th, 2019 at 10:15 PM ^
9-3/10-2 just doesn't win the Big Ten anymore, so if you wanna start winning the Big Ten you better start expecting more. OSU has evolved and upped their game, I expect us to evolve with them.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:28 PM ^
I expect us to evolve with them.
This is the problem. The evolution you speak of is directly tied to the bag. There's currently a very large gap in recruiting between OSU and UM. And unless UM pulls a 180 and decides that the bag is the way to go, that gap is never going to close.
So, UM has two potential solutions. The first is to decide that 9-3/10-2 is unacceptable and cycle thru coaches every couple years. The second is to decide that 9-3/10-2 is the baseline and hope that twice-ish per decade they catch a couple breaks and go 11-1/12-0.
But unless UM embraces the reality of "modern" recruiting, their next coach (and the one after that, and the one after that, and the one after that) is gonna hit the same ceiling Harbaugh has. Which sucks.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:30 PM ^
So 10-2 or we cheat? How about we just beat less talented teams like Wisconsin?
October 20th, 2019 at 10:31 PM ^
Like Illinois?
October 20th, 2019 at 10:34 PM ^
With their 1st string QB, or the one we beat?
October 20th, 2019 at 10:51 PM ^
Lovie Smith has as many top 10 wins as Jim Harbaugh.
I'm glad he saved his job against Wisconsin. That beard is something tremendous.
October 20th, 2019 at 11:28 PM ^
Who said Michigan is significantly more talented than Wisconsin? What future NFL greats are currently playing for Michigan? I don’t see any, just as there haven’t been for the last few years, although Devin Bush may the first in a while. The best Michigan players tend end up as journeymen in the NFL, if they even make it, and even if they do make it, often stick around for only a couple of years. Do you see any Jonathan Taylors out there? I don’t. Cold weather, a relatively weak in-state recruiting base and playing by the rules are the reasons why Michigan football is never going to be what some fans believe they’re entitled to.
Prior to Bush, Michigan hadn’t had a player taken in the top 10 of the NFL draft since 2008. This decade, they’ve only had six players taken in the 1st round. Wisconsin has had seven. Compare that to Alabama (26, with nine top 10s) and OSU (15 and 5, with most of those during the Meyer years). Michigan has had 37 players drafted, total, this decade. So has Wisconsin. Alabama has had 83. OSU has had 63. The bottom line is that Michigan doesn’t have elite talent. It has good talent, as does Wisconsin. That they win some and lose some against the Badgers is what should be expected.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^
Logged in for the first time in... a long time to upvote this. Some folks have this warped perception of Michigan's talent level around here. They have had consistently good players, rarely a great player, and are not even in the same conversation with the talent level of Bama or OSU across the board. The 2016 and 2017 games, where Michigan actually competed with the Bucks, were close because Don Brown's defense is set up to beat OSU's system under Meyer with a dual-threat QB. With an organic pass rush (8 sacks in 2016, 3 in 2017) combined with some creative game-planning, Michigan was just good enough to compete in 2017 and should have won in 2016. Gary and Winovich playing injured last year combined with Bush's injury were gameplan killers. But I digress. Unless the offense can continue to improve and install the Gattis system leading up to the Game, and concurrently develop an organic pass rush with a mediocre d-line, (highly unlikely) this looks like a repeat of 2018.
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:09 AM ^
I definitely think McGrone has the potential to be a great, and has played accordingly in his limited time here. Dax has that potential as well just based on his intangibles.
October 22nd, 2019 at 1:03 AM ^
Lol. This post and the fact that it was liked 16 times sums up perfectly the mindset of arrogant Michigan fan. Where do people get off thinking Michigan has any business beating Wisconsin?!?! Wisconsin has had a better overall winning percentage than Michigan going on 29 years now. 29 years!! Let that sink in and then tell me why Michigan should beat Wisconsin. They’re a far superior program right now and it’s not even close This fan base is completely delusional.
October 20th, 2019 at 11:20 PM ^
As long as the money keeps piling on UMs front lawn, the AD will be perfectly content with 9-3/10-2 type seasons. They seem to be doing just fine with no BIG title in rearview/future mirror so why would they change? The AD scheduling washingtons, okla, Texas, etc tells you all you need to know. $$$ and some more $$$
October 20th, 2019 at 11:41 PM ^
Had to login just to agree with you 100% on the out of conference scheduling. How could anyone spin the Washington, Oklahoma, etc series as anything but money grabs? And Notre Dame too(I don't want to hear about resuming our 3rd biggest rivalry until we make the CFB atleast once)
October 21st, 2019 at 7:05 AM ^
Maybe I'm in the minority, but I would much rather watch the team play Notre Dame than Arkansas.
October 21st, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
I agree. I would also rather watch M play Washington, Texas and Oklahoma than MTSU, Army, etc.
But I understand the other side. Our chances of getting into the CFP are higher with an easier non-conference schedule since we are already getting tough games with OSU, PSU and other B1G opponents.
Ideally they would change the CFP format to better reward tougher schedules. Personally, I think it would be great if teams had to play other Power 5 conference teams in all or maybe all but 1 game a year.
October 20th, 2019 at 11:37 PM ^
This is pure, unadulterated bullshit. Talk to anyone that recruits or does recruiting analysis for a living in Big10, and they will tell you that exactly 0% of Ohio State's advantage over Michigan in recruiting is due to "bag men".
October 21st, 2019 at 6:03 AM ^
I don't know if it is or isn't due to bag men, but I wouldn't expect a recruiting analyst to admit it, either way.
October 21st, 2019 at 8:38 AM ^
Edit: never mind
October 21st, 2019 at 10:41 AM ^
Tressel had his bag man on his board at Youngstown State. Corruption was out in the open in Ohio for a long time, and recruiting analysts don't really discuss it.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:35 AM ^
First of all, there is not a "very large gap" between Ohio State and Michigan's recruiting. We both consistently have top-ten classes with usually only a couple spots between us, and we even had the better class last year.
But more importantly, I'm sick of this argument that Michigan's problems are because of recruiting, it completely ignores the role of player development. Player development is how MSU overcame Ohio State and won three Big Ten titles in the past decade. Player development is how Wisconsin built a dominant rushing attack. Player development is how Penn State built an explosive offense. The lack of player development is why Shane Morris, Brandon Peters, John O'Korn, etc failed to develop into starting-caliber quarterbacks despite being heralded recruits.
If recruiting were all that mattered, we'd be the 2nd best team in the Big Ten and routinely 11-0 only to usually lose to OSU. That's not happening - Wisconsin, Penn State, and occasionally MSU are frequently better than us despite all recruiting worse than us.
October 21st, 2019 at 6:37 AM ^
Another stupid fan. Michigan was in the adidas report. OSU wasnt. Stay really really ignorant. Your entire world would fall upside down if you came to realize michigan also pays guys and still sucks.
October 21st, 2019 at 7:45 AM ^
Every Top 300 recruit whose family isn't loaded gets benefits. Nobody's arguing that.
But there's a difference between benefits and a $250k signing bonus.
Also, Ctrl+b.
October 21st, 2019 at 8:35 AM ^
Also, to anyone who believes Rashan Gary turned down $300k from Clemson for 3/4 of a General Studies degree in Ann Arbor, I have some oceanfront property in Kansas I'm looking to unload cheaply.
October 21st, 2019 at 10:51 PM ^
Do you honestly think if it wasn’t for a bag of cash that elite recruits would pick Michigan over ohio state? Elite recruits want to play with other elite recruits, compete for championships, and go to the league. Alabama and Clemson have done that better than anyone else, with Ohio State right behind them. 2020 recruiting rankings...1. Clemson 2. Alabama 3. Ohio State.
keep telling yourself that it’s money if you want to.
October 25th, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
This all of this, people have to get off of this notion that we are on the level of alabama osu oklahoma clemson and uga. until we decide to pay to play we not getting to that level period. our talent is decent to good and occasionally great. but until we make it a priority then we will not ascend to the next level
October 21st, 2019 at 1:48 PM ^
OSU has built a juggernaut. If we can compete with them and win, then we should be able to compete on a National Championship Level as well. It’s not going to be easy. Urban Meyer recruited at unprecedented OSU levels. If we can pull an upset this year, that would be huge for shifting momentum.
I was really encouraged by our second half performance against Penn St. We finally got to see a glimpse of what the new offense could be. In spite of a lot of mistakes, we were really moving the ball. It was fun to watch. The defense played really well too. I know certain play calls (offensively and defensively) triggered a WHAT ARE WE DOING??!! response, but we were controlling the second half. Shea Patterson played much better and this is critical to our future success this season.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:15 PM ^
I've been a fan since 2014 and I just want to see us beat OSU, win the big ten, and go to the playoff.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:29 PM ^
Shit, you missed A LOT
October 21st, 2019 at 7:43 AM ^
Seriously. I REALLY feel sorry for people who have only been interested in UM football for the last 10 years or so.
I finally gave up on my UM fandom after being beaten down with complete ennui over the state of the program.
October 21st, 2019 at 8:28 AM ^
Then why are you here?
October 21st, 2019 at 8:30 AM ^
Because I still enjoy reading many of the articles. I am not a troll, so why do you care if I read/post here?
October 21st, 2019 at 8:46 AM ^
You said you gave up on your UM fandom, so I find it a little peculiar that you're reading/posting on a Michigan sports blog at 8:30 on a Monday morning. Not mad or calling you a troll, just a little confused.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:21 PM ^
I expect a top 10 recruiting class every single year, and top 5 once every 3 or 4 years.
I expect to do whatever it takes to recruit at that level. Paying players, offering easy classes, any Jordans they want, clothes, cars, whatever it takes.
Do this and our on field results will improve. We can’t expect Harbaugh to perform like an elite team while recruiting like a very good one.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:24 PM ^
My feelings precisely, GM.
October 20th, 2019 at 11:01 PM ^
We haven't lived up to the talent we're getting as it is. I'm not confident even getting a top 5 class year in, year out would necessarily result in a top 5 team year in, year out. I can't think of a program that has historically done less with more.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:38 AM ^
"I can't think of a program that has historically done less with more."
Texas, USC, Florida, and Tennessee come to mind for what they've (not) done in the past decade. But I'm not necessarily disagreeing.
October 21st, 2019 at 2:00 AM ^
In what way have we not lived up to talent we are getting ?
since Harbaugh has got to Uofm we are #9 in wins.
The average of all classes that has played for Harbaugh is 14.
Harbuagh has recruited 4 full classes himself so far, and is averaging 11. So maybe if he continues to out perform we might do a little better.
But the narrative Uofm does less with more, is simply untrue.
October 21st, 2019 at 8:02 AM ^
I want to agree with you, but in my heart I know that a coach like Meyer could win big games with the talent we have. I'm not saying I want Meyer as our coach, but isn't he known for tailoring his schemes to match his talent and playing the best players? Tell me again why Dax Hill barely played last Saturday?
October 21st, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
Probably because he's a true freshman safety going up against an offense that is designed to confuse the secondary on the road in a White Out. He may have fared better, but I wouldn't assume so.