Let's Talk Program (not Season) Expectations
First, a bit of background. My Michigan fandom started around 1980, when I was old enough to be a fan of sports and teams. Obviously, the wheels started falling off for M in 2008. So my expectations for the team involve the period 1980 through 2007, Cue the research.
For the period, M went 256-82-5, including bowl games, for a win pct. of 75.36% . We won 3 out of 4 overall.
Against ND, we went 10-11-1 (47.73%)
Against OSU, we went 15-12-1 (55.36%)
Against MSU, we went 21-7 (75.0%)
I did not compile stats for the rivalry with Illinois.
We won or shared the Big Ten title 13 times in those 28 seasons (46.43%)
So, what does this mean for me? My expectations for the regular season are 9-3 / 10-2, hopefully with a bowl win if we finish 9-3. In the Harbaugh era, we have hit that mark 3 out of 4 seasons. Cool. I'm good with that. Ten win seasons are great. Anyone thinking Michigan is going to go 11-1 or better consistently with our schedule AND many teams circling the game as the biggest on the schedule is nuts.
But I also expect to beat ND about half the time, OSU somewhat less (given how good they are right now), and beating MSU 3-out-of-4. Also, I think given the difficulty of the Big Ten East, I'd be okay with winning at least a share of the title around 35% of the time. None of that is happening. And that's where my negative feelings for the Harbaugh era essentially come from.
Share your expectations for Michigan, and how that works with your attitudes about the era we're in now.
October 21st, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^
In thinking about all of this, my wants are a bit unrealistic when viewed through the era 1980-2007.
Winning 75% of games (9-3) "feels" like a crap season to me, but in that era, that's what we've done. Granted, it's weighted down some by our bowl record, but that's what it is.
What I *want* is a floor of 10-2, with 11-1 and dare I say 12-0 sprinkled in. But that's rarefied air for Michigan teams, and will be very difficult to achieve given that PSU is solid, OSU is at another level presently, and MSU is always a tough out. And that's just in our division. So much for competitive balance, especially when we get crossovers like Wisconsin and Iowa. Talk about the shaft.
Given all of these things, it's not very much fun being a fan right now.
October 21st, 2019 at 2:41 PM ^
The goal, as Jim Harbaugh has stated, is to win every game. When we do that, we win the B1G 10 and the National Championship.
I believe the coaches and players are doing everything they can to accomplish that. It’s not progressing as quickly as we would like, but that’s still their goal.
October 21st, 2019 at 4:56 PM ^
Ironically UM does it for nothing else than money. Money, the thing they won’t offer recruits, but will gladly put it above making the playoff on an annual basis.
October 21st, 2019 at 5:34 PM ^
For me it depends, and I don't know if it is expectations, reality, pessimism, or all of the above:
10-2 depending on the OOC schedule (9-3 otherwise)
Beat MSU 7 out of 10
Beat OSU 4 out of 10 including at least one on the road
Beat PSU 6 out of 10
The road schedule always seem extra important for M (even though a lot of schools struggle to win on the road)...but like next year I see a road trip to Washington (L), to OSU (L), and a 4-week stretch of Wisconsin, Penn State, at MSU, and at Minnesota. 9-3 seems like it would be a good regular season.
October 21st, 2019 at 5:41 PM ^
I have never posted on this site before, but I have to join this conversation. First off, let me say that I'm proud of our boys in Blue; they fought hard against a better team and in the best environment in college football. I was at the white out two years ago when we got pummeled, and I can safely say that PSU has us beat big time when it comes to stadium atmosphere. In fact, they probably have the whole darn county beat! Anyway, while we fought hard, I see a lot of posts about owning PSU in the second half, which I just don't think is true. At the end of the day, we won the second half only 14-7. We were taken to fourth down twice inside the 10, and really didn't score either time (I don't believe Shea scored on the sneak, but I'll take the free points). We are lucky that Hamler's kick return to open the half was called back, otherwise we would have been in a much much larger deficit than we were already in. Also, their first year starting QB missed 2 passes in the second half that would have meant lights out for us. Anyway, we got beat by a better team and now we can only focus on becoming better. We can pick on Frames as long as we want, but he's beaten OSU, won the big ten, and he recruits better than us (I'm sick that we don't have KJ Hamler on our team; he's from Michigan folks! we should have locked that guy up). Frames inherited a program that was still in sanctions right about the same time we hired Jim. Both teams have gotten better, but PSU has accomplished more than we have. PSU's future is bright, but I don't think we're far behind. Go Blue! Beat ND!
October 21st, 2019 at 8:33 PM ^
I want more than what Harbaugh's given us and I honestly believe that the best odds to get it is to stay the course. Elite coaches do not grow on trees.
I don't trust the AD to make the right hire and that's not even necessarily an indictment of Warde. More just that I've come to believe that coaching hires are usually a crap shoot. The people who believe that 9-10 win seasons at Michigan are a given are delusional. We learned the hard way that that's not true. Tennessee learned it wasn't true for them. It wasn't true for Nebraska, Florida, FSU, or USC. Firing Harbaugh at this point might put the Michigan program in a spot that they can't recover from for another decade or two.
October 22nd, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
The program just might be somewhere between mediocre and above average.