JJ McCarthy is your Heisman Frontrunner (via VegasInsider)
https://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/heisman-trophy/
rough nights from Penix and Williams definitely fueled this, but how will JJ answer questions about his utter lack of performance in the 4th Quarter?
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
The one vs BGSU was on JJ for sure.
Yesterday though, once JJ began throwing the ball, Morris only has a little separation from Tatum. It looked like he put too much zip because Tatum fell. Had JJ held it for a half second longer I guarantee he hits him in stride for 6
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
My thought was that Morris was half-assing the route until he saw the ball in the air. Watch the replay, he visibly speeds up when he sees the play coming at him. He was probably the last option and never thought the progression would get to him. If he’s running, that’s a sweet bomb for all the yards.
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
It seemed like he slowed up a bit when the defender fell down.
October 23rd, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
If he beats PSU and Ohio State I think JJ wins the Heisman. He's got the intangibles, moxie and the All American boy traits that the voters like.
October 22nd, 2023 at 7:54 AM ^
JJ is an absolute beast. He should be the favorite but there are two other guys with stats better. JJ just didn't need those stats. I think to vault him to be the leader for this trophy, he needs a strong showing against OSU and to a lesser extent against PSU.
If he can get a highlight reel 50 yard throw or outrun OSU for a long TD run and win, he is going to have this trophy.
Ultimately, he is a team player and he will do what is best for the team. Too bad Heisman trophy is not about leadership.
October 22nd, 2023 at 7:58 AM ^
Last night was really an NFL scout's dream. This wasn't just picking apart a putrid secondary, he was dealing in no margin windows and using his legs so effectively with his eyes down field. You watch that, combined with his trajectory at Michigan, and start to think he could be the best QB in this draft a few years down the line.
October 22nd, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^
Particularly if he stays for that extra year...
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
The zip he put on Loveland’s TD to make it 28-0 was next, next level velocity.
I say “next next” because there are only a handful of NFL guys who can make that throw
October 22nd, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^
ES(SEC)PN doesn’t even have him as a top five. What a joke.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
ES(SEC)PN is always wrong about Michigan, that's a good thing for us because it's working well. I love seeing them with eggs on their faces whenever they something (negative) about Michigan.
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
Yesterday, Mel Kiper had him as only the 6th best QB in the draft, behind Williams, Maye, Sanders, Penix, and Nix.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
Watching Nix against Washington, he hardly threw a ball beyond 5 yards. Not to be down on him, but he should never be considered a first round qb. His stats remind me of Colt McCoy, where everything looks good on paper, but can’t make an NFL throw.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
That’s his game. He’s nowhere near McCarthy’s talent level. Another thing the NFL will no doubt take into account is that McCarthy is three years younger than Penix and Nix.
October 22nd, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Nix isn’t nearly as good as McCoy. Colt played 13 seasons in the NFL. Not a bad career for someone who can’t make an nfl throw. Nix’s best two games were his first game at Auburn and the Colorado game.
October 22nd, 2023 at 8:06 AM ^
Makes sense based on his spectacular play and playmaking ability. Then again the strength of this team is chemistry, depth and balance where everybody plays hard and makes plays.
October 22nd, 2023 at 8:16 AM ^
I would be shocked if JJ won the heisman over guys with 2x the stats of him due to volume.
I think he's the best QB in the country right now though, so nice to see that reflected in the odds.
If he balls out against PSU/OSU I think he's a shoe-in for New York and possibly winning it all, especially if we're undefeated
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
OSU and PSU supposedly have elite defenses, if JJ balls out he’ll make a strong case at the right time.
October 22nd, 2023 at 8:27 AM ^
I've been thinking since late last year that he'll be the first QB off the board, if not the first selection. And mentioned it a few times! I firmly believe this now - he is the best QB on the college field today, bar none. He is flawlessly running an offense that is more diverse, more dynamic, more effective, more complex, and more NFL than anything Caleb Williams or Michael Penix have ever seen. And honestly, I don't see the consistent, pinpoint accuracy from those two that JJ displays every time he hits an NFL window - which is several times each game. They can do it, they're GOOD, but JJ's throws are somehow more impressive to me. Maybe that's the homer in me coming out? He'll keep this up through PSU, OSU, and the playoffs. We saw it last year - the game plan killed that TCU game, and he has obviously improved since those pick-6's.
What we saw last night was Harbaugh putting him on display to the nation. The anemic run numbers? I don't think a lot of effort was put into planning a run game against MSU. I think they ran base plays as a counter to passing, and just let JJ deal to show the world what he can do. The scheme looked more like a USC or UW game plan than anything Michigan has ever rolled out! This was Harbaugh giving JJ a national platform, and the world took notice.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
Penix has him on deep ball touch. But UM plays the percentages and uses this less. If you have a jump ball winner like Coleman/Harrison those odds improve.
There is an NFL level depth to what is being done here and todays Lions- Ravens game will showcase UM's future. Ben Johnson is next level but Baltimore is UM currently. He will provide what is needed to beat us and conversely what we may still adopt to thwart it.
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
Yeah…. Take Keon away from Travis and FSU is just another one or two loss team. They won’t be a road block against a ‘real’ contender.
October 22nd, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
Another great part of this is that now we can show elite HS quarterbacks that you can come to Michigan and light it up, win conferences championships, and play for national titles.
It’s not just a running school anymore where the QB is a secondary piece. It could be a very exciting time for us at the QB position going forward especially with Davis coming in.
October 22nd, 2023 at 8:54 AM ^
It's not so much that running or passing was ever "secondary," it was that Michigan was leaning on the best part of it's game. If a QB wants to be the feature, they just have to be really good and outshine the running game. Conversely, if you're last year's Blake Corum, you make it really difficult for the offense to do anything other than give you the ball because of how successful you are.
October 22nd, 2023 at 8:48 AM ^
Knowles will have to pick his poison this year. After watching the sludge fart of a game yesterday I can confidently say that we will throw up a score similar to every team we played, especially against PSU. Ohio state can be ran on and if Allar would have been able to complete ANY dam throw, that game may have been different. We aren’t PSU and OSU will learn that the hard way. The only thing that will stop us is the ncaa and Big and by god, they’re trying.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
What do you think ohio practices against all the time and what likely usually works for their offense? Slants against containing, over the top, zone. Thats what they beat PSU with and what will work against them as well only by using slot ninjas and TE's for us as we don't have an Ebuka/Harrison (JJ throws us open unlike Harrison just outclassing all other talent on the field). That's what softens up a defense for the few gashing runs they do get. Brady-like pass to run.
PSU got slush-like decision making from Allar and with no offense just wore down. JTT is the real deal and Barnhart has to be helped by our chipping TE's.
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:01 AM ^
We will see about JTT. At least one of the plays, PSU OL let him run free. There was another one where they did a poor job of matching him with a RB. I don't want to go back and watch again. OSU D is good but they take too many chances. If they show a different defense than what they have been all year against UM, they have a good shot at it.
JJ can escape and pick middle of the field apart. Allar could not.
MHJ is a different problem. If Will can win more than 50 percent against him, that is a win for us. Nobody can stop that dude the whole game, but sure as hell UM is going try.
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
The difference is that OSU is playing to their strengths to win some of these games. Michigan is playing to prepare for OSU. Minters scheme is designed to beat OSUs base offense. Knowles’ scheme is built to stop big play based Big 12 defenses. We saw this play out last year.
October 22nd, 2023 at 4:47 PM ^
And it hasn't changed. As Mike said "they are who we thought they were"!
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
After 8 games, JJ has proven that he plays in an elite level. Its like he's hardly ever tested. If JJ can remain this consistent, his best moments are yet to come. November could be one hell of ride for us and JJ himself.
I'll sit back and enjoy those moments.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:10 AM ^
How awesome would that be?
Another Michigan Heisman winner? Go get it, young man!
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^
Anyone else taking the ice-cold showers in the morning like JJ does? It's getting tougher as winter approaches but I feel pretty awesome afterwards.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
If he keeps playing like this, then he will almost certainly get invited to the ceremony, but I still doubt he’s going to win it.
The committee is undoubtedly going to look for someone who has flashier stats, so Williams or Penix would likely win over McCarthy because they’re throwing 35-40 times a game if not more
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
Truth is Williams has 2 losses and likely another 1 or 2 coming up. He's out. Heisman voters don't vote players from losing teams.
Penix Jr. looked pretty normal, even bad yesterday, but since it was a west coast game, even his teams dismal result against a 1 win team in week 7, went mostly unnoticed. Unless he has a Heisman moment that gets noticed, JJ, albeit with lesser totals (yards, passes, completions) could easily sway voters with a few key performances and a more modern stat (passer rating plus completion percentage / team wins). Also it'd be a story to see a Michigan Heisman frontrunner and a QB at that. The narrative would be he's a smart choice as he wins, changed the team from a run first team, and has the intangibles. In today's marketing friendly world, snake oil sells, but his oil is actually exxxxtra virgin olive oil. Buy it, voters.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Didn't Tebow have 3 losses in 2007 when he won the Heisman? It's not common but definitely not unprecedented to have. Heisman winner with some losses
October 22nd, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
That’s not really accurate re: Heismans not going to players on “losing teams.”
RGIII won it when Baylor went either 9-3 or 10-2. Tebow won it going 9-3. Lamar Jackson won it going 9-3. Manziel won it when I think A&M went 10-2.
Being on a title contender helps, but it’s not really necessary.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
JJ unfortunately not win the heisman because we have the stupid allegations going on. NCAA won't want to have him win the heismn if they plan on hitting a michigan with something ridiculous
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
The NCAA is not in control of the Heisman. It's the Heisman Trust. Which maybe influenced by the scandal, but it would be pretty rich for a player to be punished for a scandal that likely won't even see cooperation / discovery prior to the vote.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
McCarthy and Penix basically switched places last night.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:41 AM ^
I would have NO PROBLEM with Michigan trouncing every opponent as to where JJ wouldn't have to play in th 4th quarter. Name me a power 5 team that was able to sit their QB in the 4th quarter in EVERY game they played that season? Obviously, that won't happen but it is fun to think about.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
After what Penix did last night I can't argue this. There isn't another QB that looks as comfortable out there as JJ. And I'm sick and tired of hearing people say Michigan hasn't played anyone.
October 23rd, 2023 at 9:08 AM ^
Yeah. His biggest trouble is, he hasn't been in a position where he's uncomfortable and had to play through it, and that won't change for a few more weeks.
I'm sick and tired of hearing people say Michigan hasn't played anyone
If they say that this week, we can agree: Michigan literally isn't playing anyone. They're going to keep saying it until at least November 11, so just smile and say, I hope we continue to get better.
Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa all have legitimately good defenses to test Michigan.
October 22nd, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
JJ has been fantastic and his advanced stats are killer, but it's just hard to see him winning, even if he keeps this up, due to pure volume. Dude has barely played a 4th quarter snap this year
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:26 AM ^
Watching them all JJ appears to have the strongest arm strength. A couple of those passes yesterday were absolute lasers. That one he threw by Halladay’s helmet was a thing of beauty.
October 22nd, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
I don't want to sound crazy or anything, but is it crazy to compare JJ to Mahomes? Today's Mahomes has better deep ball accuracy and arm strength than JJ. But stylistically it feels very similar.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
My hot take is that The Game will be a de facto Heisman showdown between McCarthy and Harrison.
October 22nd, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
JJ is probably my favorite UM QB. Seen some greats. He is what I thought senior Henson would've been had he came back.
October 22nd, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
The only sad thing about these blowouts is that we don’t get to see more of JJ and Corum and the 1st team offense. I know it’s to protect them and makes sense but they’re such a joy to watch and we’re only getting 2.5 quarters of them every game.
October 22nd, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^
It makes me think if Harbaugh is going to try to finagle his way to coaching JJ’s team in the pros. If JJ is drafted high enough by a poor team, if I’m the owner I would like Harbaugh coaching him.
October 22nd, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
No way he is winning the heisman with his stats unfortunately. If they can’t give it to a QB then it’s probably going to Harrison
October 22nd, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
Remember when people were worried that QBs got worse the longer that Harbaugh coached them?
Yeah, that’s not a thing.
October 22nd, 2023 at 4:22 PM ^
I am not saying he will win, but the narrative that because his yardage and TD totals aren't high enough, he has no legitmate chance, is wrong IMO.
1) He has moved to the slight favorite, and the slight second choice in two online betting platforms with which I am familiar. That is not just based on feelings or because some big fish Michigan fan is betting him. Those are calculations by people whose livelihoods depend upon being smart.
2) Advanced QB efficiency stats have gained much nore primacy among those with votes than what they had 5 years ago or even a year ago. JJ shows very well on these.
3) he has at least two more marquee match-ups to make his case. That is up to him and to the team. Of course it is not in a vacuum. Penix, and whoever is third, fourth, fifth at this point (it isn't clear) also have multiple opportunities to make their cases.
A lot can change in the next 5 weeks, we shall see