Heard this one from Klatt today…
Blew my mind…
If you look at the 247 composite team recruiting rankings that assesses talent on each teams roster.
The gap from Alabama (1) to USC (11) is the same size as from USC (11) to Florida Atlantic (69).
He brought it up in discussing why the big three (Georgia, Bama, OSU) are rarely if ever on “upset alert.”
Absolutely nuts if you think about it.
Love Klatt’s podcast. Thinks he’s the best in the business currently. Highly recommend.
Carry on.
September 29th, 2022 at 10:43 AM ^
Alabama was a bit of a mess a number of years ago. IMO, Shula doesn't get enough credit for having to navigate Bama through NCAA imposed sanctions.
Had Mike Shula won one more game against Auburn than he did - Saban may never have wound up at Bama.
September 29th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
Imagine the ripples through CFB if RichRod had taken the Bama job
September 29th, 2022 at 9:46 PM ^
Had RR gone to Alabama, the Tide would have been on probation in 3 years, Tennessee would be good still and Auburn's entire last 15 years would be so so different.
I think Saban would have stayed in the NFL a bit longer, waiting for the right opportunity. Maybe even Penn State. Basically I feel very strongly Alabama told him they would do anything to get the right players to Alabama and shield him from any wrong doing. They were sick of losing.
September 29th, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
And it was true until they hired Saban. 24 years of meh between the two.
September 28th, 2022 at 11:47 PM ^
From your lips to God's ear.
September 29th, 2022 at 1:50 AM ^
The smart move for Dabo would be to turn down the job when Saban decides to hang it up (because you know Dabo will be the first call 'Bama makes), and then accept it when Saban's successor fails and gets fired. But I suspect that the lure will be too powerful for Dabo to pass up.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:14 PM ^
Jimmys and Joes: They matter. Last year's win over OSU was a significant achievement. I don't agree with people (like Jarrett Irons) who say you can ignore recruiting rankings for "rivalry" games.
September 29th, 2022 at 7:34 AM ^
While I agree you can't totally ignore recruiting rankings in CFB, UM-MSU over the last 15 years (and particularly in the last 2) suggests that there is a lot more than recruiting numbers in determining the outcome of rivalry games for teams not named Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:22 PM ^
Everyone seems to think NILs or expanded playoffs will improve parity. I have two thoughts on that. First, are we sure we want "parity"? We're No. 4, after all, and enjoying life, more or less. Yes, we'd like to compete with OSU and Georgia ... but do we want the Northwesterns and Duke's better able to beat us? Seems to me the current system isn't really all that bad for Michigan.
And on a related subject, things change. Alabama was dominant in the 60s and 70s, then they weren't for 2-3 decades, then they got a great coach, and they are again. Georgia and Clemson have won one national championship each in the past thirty years, and OSU has won two (after winning three between 1961 and 1970).
It's a mistake to assume temporary dominance reflects systematic inequality. It's also a mistake to assume Michigan is somehow at an institutional disadvantage -- certainly very few non-Michigan fans would agree that the world is unfair to us.
Eh, I don't know. Maybe we should recruit better ... and, when we lose, not claim that others are cheating. Kids go to Alabama because they know they'll compete for a national championship, get exposure for professional careers, and (I guess) be well-coached. If we can make the same argument here, I believe our academic reputation, fan following, and general reputation will give us a leg up over many others.
(I'm not saying we don't have disadvantages -- both weather-related and being one of two major schools in a relatively talent-poor state. But I don't think NIL or playoff parity is going to change either of those factors).
September 28th, 2022 at 10:28 PM ^
Clemson has won 2 since 2017
September 29th, 2022 at 12:18 AM ^
Ah well. (Fortunately), I'm quick to forget these things. :-)
September 29th, 2022 at 12:23 AM ^
It's interesting. Clemson is a great example of how things can change. They had a generational quarterback (and, obviously, some other excellent players), and had a great run. Once those players were gone, they've sunk back somewhat. Now everyone's talking about Georgia (and Alabama, obviously).
I don't know. I just hate whining. I'd rather win, and let other people complain about us. :-)
September 29th, 2022 at 5:13 AM ^
Clemson had an excellent QB in Tahj Boyd, followed by two first round QBs, each of whom won a NC.
They built this — didn’t come from Lawrence magically landing in their laps.
September 29th, 2022 at 8:33 AM ^
Right! But you must have missed the part where we're not allowed to recruit better. LOL. Because of racism I think. It's insane. The same coach who gets the #1/2 player in the country 3 of 4 years all of a sudden has some invisible disadvantage when his team is not as good as others? LOL. Even now that this mythical 'bag man' can NOT be an issue, we're going to cry victim instead of incompetence.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:24 PM ^
Agree. I think Gus Johnson can be a little much, but I like Klatt. Seems relatively calm, knowledgeable, and decent.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:28 PM ^
Give me Big Noon with Gus, Klatt, and the “All American Girl” Jenny Taft over ABC Primetime with Fowler and Herbie.
Herbie is one of the better ones but far below Klatt, and Fowler is dreadful
September 28th, 2022 at 9:38 PM ^
Chris "LOWERS the SHOULDER" Fowler? I do give him credit how he is able to call tennis one night and then switch gears to football a day or two later.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:50 PM ^
I totally read “lowers the shoulder” in Fowler’s voice without even thinking about it. I hadn’t fully realized how often he says that.
Thanks, now I’m gonna notice every time
September 29th, 2022 at 2:54 PM ^
Fowler is like what happens when high school refs are full-time refs for 8 different sports. They suck at all of them.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:36 PM ^
FAU has a niiiiice recruiting ranking
September 28th, 2022 at 9:36 PM ^
The playing field is far from fair. It's why it has been a challenge for BIG teams, including Michigan, to beat OSU...
September 28th, 2022 at 9:44 PM ^
It would be interesting to see it subdivided into conferences to examine the distribution at a more micro level. I would think the drop in the B1G would be somewhat precipitous after Ohio State and Michigan actually, if I had to guess.
September 28th, 2022 at 9:54 PM ^
PSU is pretty much equivalent to Michigan, IIRC.
September 29th, 2022 at 1:48 AM ^
You are right. OSU enjoys a much greater advantage than Bama and Georgia.
OSU's (983 points) has to deal with Michigan (847), PSU (830), and Nebraska (754).
Bama (1016) and Georgia (990) have to deal with each other and then TAMU (947), LSU (873) and Florida (857).
Depth is also a massive advantage for OSU. 9 of 14 teams in the B1G have less than 700 points, whereas every SEC school except Vanderbilt is over 700. Missouri (2nd least amount of talent in the SEC) would be the 6th most talented team in the B1G.
September 28th, 2022 at 10:08 PM ^
His podcasts are definitely worth a listen. He talks about Michigan quite a bit. Obviously he doesn’t know as much about the ins and outs of the program like the folks at MGoBlog, but he almost always gives well-reasoned takes and seems to have a good perspective on the overall college football landscape. At the very least, it’s something to listen to in between MGoPodcasts and WTKA.
September 28th, 2022 at 10:27 PM ^
Joel appreciates you spreading the word about his podcast. :)
Seriously, I really enjoy his stuff as well. I like he can and does take the time to explain some of his thoughts. I particularly liked how he addressed why he was critical of Michigan against Maryland. He got in a small dig at OSU for not having any road games yet, which is fair.
I also enjoy the College Football Nerds as well as Josh Pate. The Nerds just feel like a casual conversation with friends. Pate is sometimes a bit full of himself but is clearly passionate about the sport and doesn't seem to consistently troll any given team or conference.
September 28th, 2022 at 11:54 PM ^
I think the another thing that would help with parity would be to allow five years of eligibility plus a red shirt year for those who are enrolled in grad school. - The elite talent that rolls in and out after three years at Alabama, Georgia, and OSU would somewhat offset by the experience and maturity of a fifth or sixth year senior.
September 29th, 2022 at 7:58 AM ^
This doesn’t blow my mind at all. What would blow my mind is if somebody other than Alabama, Georgia or OSU won a national title this year.
September 29th, 2022 at 9:16 AM ^
Everyone appears to have weaknesses.
We could do it.
September 29th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
There are two basic arguments. Is it talent that wins? Is it scheme and preparation that wins?
IMO, it's really a combination of the two. Coaching up "good" (3/4 * players) - developing them, with a solid scheme and game plan to put them in a position to win is part of it - and, having talented players on the roster is integral to that. In game execution is what it's all about - but, having a WR corps who averages 4.4 speed, is "better" than a WR corps who averages 4.9 - isn't it?
Michigan has lacked two things over the last number of years - one, a QB with enough ability to really challenge an opposing defense, and two, an OL that can effectively enable both a ground and passing game.
The Bucks have more five * prospects than the rest of the B1G combined. Think about that - one team with more very high potential players than the rest of the conference. It really is no surprise they have had the success they've had. And, if you wanted to be creative - you might even say the Bucks have underachieved based on their level of talent.
Georgia - with all of their talent - has only been to the CFP twice. Think about that. Only twice - and, they are - and have been stocked with very high potential players for a while. So much talent, that Justin Fields left Georgia because of the toxic climate in Athens.
I think Michigan's staff is solid at scheming. The big difference was in two areas - McDonald / Minter over the past two seasons on D, and the OL. That has enabled Michigan to be stronger - on both sides of the ball. And, I know that it's early this season - but, the team finally seems to have the depth to compete on both sides of the ball.
What will NIL do? Some of the "rich" will get richer. Texas A&M has brought in a lot of talent, but - can they develop them - and, gameplan / scheme to compete and win the SEC. That's a big question.
According to the numbers, Michigan overachieved last year. I would like to believe the foundation is in place for continued success. And, as many of us (me included) believe - one major barometer takes place annually in the last regular season game.
I believe in the young men on this team. I believe in the staff. Go Blue!
September 29th, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
To me, the narrative claiming Kirby Smarts greatness does not exactly ring true. He is an excellent recruiter but there is something else in play here as well. He must have gotten "lucky" with some coaching hires. Or, to his credit, he may have actually figured something else out from the coaching side.
September 29th, 2022 at 11:51 AM ^
Agree with you about Klatt's skill. He's top notch in the booth and in analysis. Great listen.
September 29th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
aTm has the most talent of all, so where do they fall?
Lol.
September 29th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
j, this may be a bit of semantics. Texas A&M signed a class with a lot of talent. However, A&M does not have the most talented ROSTER - they have a very talented freshman class.
The top five teams in terms of "overall talent" are - Alabama, Georgia, the Bucks, A&M, and Clemson. That's the top five according to 247's Team Talent Composite.
And, coincidentally - each of those five teams have ten, or more, 5* prospects on their roster. They are the only five teams with ten or more. In fact, Texas has six, a few teams have five - and, it goes down from there.
September 29th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
NIL won't help the recruiting gap. But an expanded football playoff will.
September 29th, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
Jamie, do you think "being in the playoffs" - helps influence a prospective recruits decision?
I would agree - being in the playoffs would help attract a prospect. A consistent - "getting players into the NFL" - in their position group - is probably the biggest draw / generator of interest.
There will always be players that will go after the NIL payout - and, if they want that in a "pay to sign / play" structure - well, it's not going to work that way in Ann Arbor. (At least I don't think it will.)
September 29th, 2022 at 3:19 PM ^
Absolutely I think it does.
If you are a top recruit, you DREAM of playing in the biggest games. The college football playoff are the biggest games of the year.
Right now, if you want to play in those games, you go to Ohio State or Alabama. Maybe Georgia and Clemson. And that's about it. Those are the only schools that can tell you--if you are here for 4 years, you'll play in the playoffs. No one else can promise that.
With expanded playoffs to 12 teams, programs like Michigan can far more credibly promote themselves as being a "playoff program". As can several other top 10 programs. This won't make a difference for every recruit, but it will definitely help with some. Will players line up to be 3rd string on Alabama/Ohio State when they can go straight into the 2-deep on another team that has serious playoff potential?
I don't think it is an accident that there was more parity in college football before the current playoff structure.
September 29th, 2022 at 1:51 PM ^
I think having "enough" talent on a team is necessary to compete at the highest levels.
The one question I have is - with all this turmoil in the NCAA - and, with NIL - is there a possibility to change the NCAA "guideline" about where and how often - a school can hold a camp?
If there is one (1) thing that Michigan could benefit from - it would be exposing prospects in certain parts of the country to their staff and approach. And, that exposure might result in an additional player, or two - from "talent rich" parts of the country.
The NCAA and Emmert have been a disgrace to collegiate athletics. It would be great to see this guideline / rule changed.
September 29th, 2022 at 3:27 PM ^
this shouldn't have been news to anyone.
September 29th, 2022 at 7:57 PM ^
Who needs an alert when surprises are so much fun like Iowa OSU and Purdue vs OSU.
September 29th, 2022 at 9:00 PM ^
It is like this in many sports. Tennis and figure skating are good examples.