Has your season outlook changed in either direction after first game?
I don’t want this to sound “snowflakey” but I ask because I’ve talked to quite a few fans who had a negative impression of the first game and started lowering their expectations. Personally I’m about the same as before. I think the offense will be improved, but will take a little time to really click, and I think the defense will be good again, but a step down from years past.
ND at home, PSU and Wiscy on the road feel like 55-60 pct UM to win.
I think UM should be solidly favored to win vs MSU at home but the game will likely be another close battle. Similar with Iowa at home. Both games 60-70 pct UM to win. Maryland on the road might not be a pushover, but still expect a comfortable win.
I got OSU as being a straight 50-50 proposition at this point because it’s way too early to tell how either team will be in November.
I’m still in the 9-3/10-2 “very good but not quite elite” camp right now. Curious to hear how others feel at this early point in the year.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
We’ve dropped from 3rd seed in the playoffs to 4th seed.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
No, I still have high expectations as far as winning the Big Ten and beating those savages in Columbus. Honestly I don't care about the playoff until those 2 objectives are met.
September 4th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
Those objectives go hand in hand with making the playoffs.
Like the Muppets, you can’t have one without the other...but yeah, first things first.
September 4th, 2019 at 8:22 PM ^
Ohio state would like a word with you from last year.
You can win win the big ten and not make the playoffs.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
considering 14 of their 21 points were off turnovers giving them a short field and the last TD was a horribly missed tackle in garbage time, I'd say no change.
it was a typical first game, a little sloppy, lots to improve on.
Onward, GO BLUE
September 4th, 2019 at 11:06 AM ^
I was just debating with someone on Twitter. This person insisted that UM struggled to win. He mentioned the 37 point spread. Clearly this jackass read only headlines and opinions from others while not watching the game. UM never struggled to win. I think a lot of ill-informed people are comparing it to the OSU game. They scored 28 in 7 minutes. Big fucking deal. The entire game counts - not just certain moments in it, ones that people will point to in order to make their argument.
September 4th, 2019 at 11:45 AM ^
You could have just posted "I was just debating with someone on Twitter" and we could have figured out the rest.
September 4th, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
Or not just included the Twitter part either
September 4th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
Why do people keep insisting that points scored against Michigan, the result of a turnover, don't really count in the greater scheme of things? 21 points scored by Michigan were on short field ( less than 30 yd) drives as well. Do they not count, or at best give cause for concern? Or do they count because it shows that Michigan can take advantage of short field situations? If so, why isn't the same deference given to the opponents who take advantage of a short field?
September 4th, 2019 at 12:32 PM ^
Well there was a point where Harbs would have thrown a steel chair at the line of scrimmage for 3 downs then play action with everyone in the stadium knowing it was coming, so the fact that we got in the endzone, Im good, does the offense need work yeah, but the kinks get worked out during the season, and like the op said it was a lot of teams that paid good money to catch a swift kick in the nuts so seeing as that was not our fate Im good. besides if michigan came out and dropped a 60 burger on mtsu I still would say ok lets do it when it counts, this game was live practice
September 4th, 2019 at 1:16 PM ^
They weren't marching up and down the field on us, had we not turned the ball over twice, they probably didn't score those 14 points. (based on the fact that they didn't move down the field and score ANY points aside from those two TDs, until 1:06 left in the game)
September 4th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
Considering a bunch of other top 25 teams looked less then stellar, I'm feeling better about the offense. They will settle in and be great. Interior DL looks soft, but we're also down a few bodies. All in all, I'm feeling pretty good
September 4th, 2019 at 10:27 AM ^
I'm in the same boat as the OP, prior to the opener I was thinking 9-3 mostly due to our issues over the last decade beating good teams on the road and OSU. After watching the first game I'm sticking with that prediction. Hopefully I am proven wrong!
September 4th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
I wasn't overly impressed or concerned about anything I saw against MTSU. The defense looked pretty solid after giving up the 2 short field TDs. The offense showed flashes of dominance but was inconsistent and had a lot of miscues - to be expected in a new offensive system in Week 1.
We played incredibly sloppy and still handled an overmatched opponent all game. Stands to reason that the sloppiness will be corrected. My prediction hasn't changed since the preseason - 10 wins, loss to OSU and someone else, most likely PSU.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:30 AM ^
Yes. I am even more optimistic that this is going to be a GREAT year for our team. My biggest fear was Harbaugh wouldnt really let go of the offense and based on 25 first half passes that certainly does not look like the case.
We basically gave them 14 points (the two fumbles) and gave away another 14 points by screwing up the 4th and goal run and dropping the easiest pick 6 since football was invented. Make the score 54-14 or even 54-7 and nobody is saying anything negative at all.
I was also pleasantly surprised by the defense, especially our corners. They obviously wont get tested much this week but our front seven sure will be.
I was really happy with what I saw. Perfect? Hell no but that's exactly why i bitched so hard when the Notre Dame game was announced. Start every year with a bodybag team, not a good one, and work out the kinks in a win, not a loss.
Thumbs up for me. More optimistic than ever!
September 4th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
I have to admit I did not see this take coming from you.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
Me either. I’m still half convinced MGrowOld sits next to me at the games. Or maybe all the cranky old guys are optimistic after years of serving “hard truth”?
September 4th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^
FWIW last year I only predicted we'd lose two games - Notre Dame (correctly) and the bowl game against Florida (correctly). I picked us to win and win big at OSU (incorrectly).
I think the reason I'm labeled as a pessimist is because I'm generally dissapointed in the overall quality of our recruiting and have been vocal here about it (no need rehash the why) and because I keep receipts and like to remind people when I'm right on things like "we're gonna lose at Iowa at night" or "we shouldnt schedule ND and we really shouldnt open with them" or "the team doesnt really seem fired up to play in the bowl game and I think we're gonna get rolled" (which really pisses everybody off).
Like I said - I am VERY upbeat on this team right now. I'm a little worried about our games at Wisconsin & Penn State, not because I dont think they're better (they're not) but because at least so far, Harbaugh hasnt done very well in tough B1G road games.
I've got us at 11-1 this year, beating OSU at home and losing one of the two tough roadies. I honestly DO think this is the year Harbaugh gets the OSU monkey, the B1G Championship monkey and the final four bid monkey off his back.
All the monkey's die. All of them.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
Cover your ears Rgard.
September 4th, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
Sounds like Mgrowold is on the side of the marsupials in the great marsupial - monkey war.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:58 AM ^
FWIW, I don’t see you as a pessimist. Just someone who points out where things are not good enough. You don’t deliver it in a rosy, optimistic narrative. One can be neither optimist or pessimist when pointing out concerns right?
Speaking of concerns...Go Blue Beat Army!
September 4th, 2019 at 1:33 PM ^
I would be happy with dropping Wisconsin and Notre Dame but winning every other game we play. Beat OSU? Check. Big Ten Champions? Check. New Year’s Six bowl winners? Check.
Obviously, I’d love to win them all but we do have some room for a few losses and a special year if the losses happen at the right time.
Speaking to the OP’s question I didn’t have expectations going into the year although I got a good impression from reading the preview posts. Not sure we have enough data from this game to draw any conclusions. I think our next two games will tell us a lot more.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
I agree. There's no need to panic. Those mistakes you listed were the difference of that game being much more lopsided. But I hate, hate, HATE turnovers and I don't want to see them. We tend to fumble when in our own territory (very common two years ago) and that's basically gift wrapping a TD for the opponent. No more of that, please.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
Fell off my chair reading that haha. ?
September 4th, 2019 at 11:28 AM ^
i hate the 'basically gave them 14 points' line of thinking. We did not give them anything, they earned the 14 points. In 2016 our defense would have stopped them for 3 points, maybe 6 at the most.
I was frustrated by the defense pretty much. Loved the offense. Were going to be great there. But the defense was my biggest nitpick besides the fucking spike the ball play which i don't think a high school coach would be dumb enough to do with 2 timeouts in your pocket. That play absolutely ticked me off. Im not sure if that was on Gattis or Harbaugh (i think Gattis).
September 4th, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^
I do have some concerns about the defense because while the touchdowns were short fields they were still 40+ yard drives. The defense had a problem preventing touchdowns in the red zone last year and didn't solve it in this game. Holding a team to field goal after they have a good drive or a turnover instead of a TD is often the difference in winning or losing a close game against a good team.
September 4th, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
"Thumbs up for me. More optimistic than ever!"
You need to see a doctor immediately—an alien parasite has seized control of your brain and you need to have it removed. The parasite I mean.
September 4th, 2019 at 7:38 PM ^
MTSU had a pretty slick QB and scheme. They will score some points this year. Our D held up well.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
Yep.
I originally wanted 15-0 but I think we are actually going 16-0 now.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
19-0 after we win the Super Bowl.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
I was optimistically hoping for 11-1 or 10-2 regular season. I think 10-2 or 9-3 seems more likely primarily because of my concern around our DT health/depth. If somehow Dwumfor comes back, Jeter comes back and has significantly improved, and either Hinton and/or Mazi Smith is ready to contribute effectively then I'd return to my optimistic view, but right now OSU, ND, Wiscy, PSU, & maybe Iowa all seem like challenging games where we will need to outscore them.
September 4th, 2019 at 11:17 AM ^
This is where I'm at. I knew the offense would have some hiccups. I knew we'd have to sort out some positions as we see who responds when the lights come on. I never thought we'd be so thin at DT where Ben Mason is getting a billion snaps. That's not going to cut it and we all know it. My expectations are on hold pending further development at DT.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
Not really, but PSU did look really good and a night game away = trouble. I think Maryland may be some trouble too. They should have beaten OSU last year, but the WR dropped the 2 pt conversion at the end (the good news there is ~50% of the stadium will be M fans).
September 4th, 2019 at 10:41 AM ^
The PSU offense definitely looked more polished than I expected, but the team they played was horrendous. Last year Idaho was a 4-7 FCS team that had the #100 ranked defense in the FCS and gave up more than 60 points on three different occasions.
September 4th, 2019 at 11:07 AM ^
I thought it was rumored that the PSU white out might be a noon kick.
September 4th, 2019 at 11:51 AM ^
Correct. Fox is carrying that game and it's a prime candidate for their game of the week, which they are slotting into the 12pm timeframe. I would be very surprised if it happens at night.
September 4th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
Penn State played an FCS team. One that dropped down to that level because they were such a joke. Not sure that tells us much. And I believe the Maryland QB threw the ball behind a mostly wide open receiver to lose to OSU.
September 4th, 2019 at 1:27 PM ^
Agree that Maryland should have beaten OSU and may pose a challenge.
Disagree that the WR "dropped" the conversion - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTxo37BpRGI
September 4th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
Not really. One thing that's really important to note is that a lot of teams look sloppy in the first week, with Alabama being the most notable example. Let's see how we clean things up over the next few weeks. With that said, I'm a little more nervous about Wisconsin than I was before. USF is not a great program, but Wisconsin completely obliterated them and they're not some bottom-feeding FCS team.
September 4th, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
Agreed. It's much tougher to tell how good a team is when they perform really well vs. a cupcake. However, it's usually much easier to tell how BAD a team is when they underperform vs. a cupcake.
Who knows how good Wisconsin or MD or PSU are - they all did well playing bad teams. On the other hand, MSU's offense really struggled vs. a bad team (Tulsa) and that says a whole lot about their ceiling as a team. Their O line was an absolute sieve vs an inferior defense. Doesn't look good.
September 4th, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^
Alabama played a decent ACC team from last year. The rest of the top 7 played group of 5 teams. So Bama struggling for a quarter(only gave up 3 points) is a little different in that aspect. If we beat Duke 40-21 I think the vibe around the team would be even better than it is today.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:34 AM ^
Not really because I never expected the defense to be good enough to make it to the CFP to begin with. And I just feel like our QBs are just held back too much. They never feel like they can get in a rhythm because the coaching staff feels the needs to force the run game. Shea looked his best when he threw the ball 3 or 4 times straight, and quite honestly that’s when the offense looked the best. I know Shea threw the ball 29 times, but how many where when it’s 3 and 12 after 2 failed run plays, everyone knows it’s gonna be a pass? Air it out as long as you can, get our elite receivers the ball, and score as damn much as you can so our defense can have some wiggle room (that they probably need).
September 4th, 2019 at 2:58 PM ^
I know Shea threw the ball 29 times, but how many where when it’s 3 and 12 after 2 failed run plays, everyone knows it’s gonna be a pass?
I'm not seeing anything like 3 & 12 after 2 failed run plays.
M Drive summary - 1st half
1st drive. Stalled on 3 & 6 incompletion -- short completion and incompletion on 1st & 2nd downs (converted earlier 3 & 7 after 3 yd run and 0 yd completion on 1st & 2nd)
2nd drive. Stalled on 3 & 11 sack -- 3 yr run, 5yd penalty and 1 yd completion on 1st & 2nd downs
3rd & 4th drives - TDs (2 and 4 plays respectively, no 3 rd downs, longest 2nd down 7 yds to go).
5th drive stalled on 3rd & 8 -- incompletion and 2 yd completion on 1st & 2nd
6 th drive - td (2 plays, 1 st play imcompletion, 2 & 10 --> score)
7th drive - stalled on 3rd & 5 incompletion -- spike and 5 yd run on 1st & 2 nd, earlier in drive, got 1st down on 3 & 10 via MTSU penalty [incompletions on 1st & 2nd], converted 3 & 6 after 4 yd run and incompletion
2nd half, pretty comparable to first wrt play calling and down and distances.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
9-3, loses to wisconsin, notre dame and osu, i can see 10-2 tho, not going to beat osu, don't have the defensive front to get pressure or the db's to match up man to man, would have to win the game in a shoot out, neg away
September 4th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^
I'm guessing after last year's debacle, Don Brown is going to come up with a different scheme against OSU than man to man this year.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
Anyone that is basing or changing their expectations of Michigan's season after the first game needs to seriously evaluate their life. As I said in the thread about the 2-QB play calling, let's get through Army and Rutgers before we really begin to change our minds about how things are going. The week to week swings of college football fandom are hilarious to me. Watch us blow out Army and then everyone is going to pretend that the MTSU game didn't happen. Then we won't beat Rutgers by 60 and everyone will start panicking again. The internetz can be such an interesting place.
September 4th, 2019 at 10:48 AM ^
did you forget we play a pretty good Wisconsin team on the road before Rutgers, lets see how the front 7 does against them, I don't have high hopes
September 4th, 2019 at 11:08 AM ^
There is no question that DT is an issue, simply from a number of bodies perspective. A team like Wisconsin becomes a really difficult matchup (they are always difficult, but a lack of beef up the middle is particularly concerning). We are going to have to get used to something at times that we are not used to seeing, and that is Michigan just outscoring somebody.
I think this is a solid defensive unit but it isn't like a Top 10 type defense. We need to put the ball in the end-zone. After week one, I am confident we can do that.
September 4th, 2019 at 11:50 AM ^
I agree it’s too early to tell. However, how many championship caliber teams have a FB on the d-line, a walk-on at LB, and a walk-on getting series reps at RB?
Im still going with 8-9 wins but Michigan just doesn’t look like a team built to win it all.