Has your season outlook changed in either direction after first game?

Submitted by TK on September 4th, 2019 at 10:19 AM

I don’t want this to sound “snowflakey” but I ask because I’ve talked to quite a few fans who had a negative impression of the first game and started lowering their expectations. Personally I’m about the same as before. I think the offense will be improved, but will take a little time to really click, and I think the defense will be good again, but a step down from years past. 

ND at home, PSU and Wiscy on the road feel like 55-60 pct UM to win. 

I think UM should be solidly favored to win vs MSU at home but the game will likely be another close battle. Similar with Iowa at home. Both games 60-70 pct UM to win. Maryland on the road might not be a pushover, but still expect a comfortable win. 

I got OSU as being a straight 50-50 proposition at this point because it’s way too early to tell how either team will be in November. 

I’m still in the 9-3/10-2 “very good but not quite elite” camp right now. Curious to hear how others feel at this early point in the year. 

Vote_Crisler_1937

September 4th, 2019 at 10:37 AM ^

The biggest thing the first game changed in my mind is the offensive play calling; will it get needlessly conservative? We all believe that M felt the game was secure in the 2nd half and thus went away from what was working but we don’t know that. Until I see Collins/Black get 13-14 targets a game and we don’t waste downs throwing screens to quarterbacks or fades to short freshmen, I will be nervous that the play calling will veer away from getting the ball to our playmakers in favor of things that won’t work. 

Beginning in the spring my expectations have been an 8-4ish team with losses to MSU, OSU, ND, and one of Wisconsin/PSU/Iowa. Probably Wisconsin since they will be ranked and on the road. 

I still think Michigan does not have the defense to compete with OSU or ND. I think the sloppiness we saw Saturday will be on full display in the MSU game. I expect these QB/RB mesh points to lead to a fumble or two that MSU jumps on and someone will have an inexplicable turnover like Evans last year or McKeon/Isaac the year before or that other inexplicable thing from ‘15. Dantonio and his players live for that game and will have plenty of film by the time it rolls around. 

I see a lot of talent on this roster and more athleticism than in forever please Let it all crash through its ceiling.  

maize-blue

September 4th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^

I was a little down Saturday night but after some time I still have high expectations for this team. I think they have room to improve on both sides of the ball and am somewhat ok that they didn't look like a finished product already.

Last year they improved throughout the year but I thought peaked before the end of the season and against PSU. I hope they can manage that a little better and end up hitting on all cylinders against OSU.

Hotel Putingrad

September 4th, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^

I feel like in the Harbaugh era we've consistently started strong, only to fade in November. 

Something tells me this year will be the opposite.

I can envision losing to Wisconsin and ND because of their strong rushing attacks, but I'd be perfectly fine with 10-2 if those two games were in fact the only losses.

MoCarrBo

September 4th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^

9-3/8-4 Defense is going to a huge step back with our DTs being the weakest link. Similarly the interior oline is not going to be as good as everyone thought. Couple with a tough schedule and i see this being a down year. 

BoCanHam15

September 4th, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^

Either you’re a pessimist or you just like spewing crap.  Just look at the rankings of linemen in the BIG10 and their grades.  So you’re saying that who digresses in the interior Mike?  Ruiz?  Give me a break.  I despise these types of questions because it allows people to just make up )&&!  Yeah our interior line will get worse with experience.  Never could predict this hot take.

RGard

September 4th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^

Not really.  New offense.  Stuff happens as the players execute all the new stuff they learned.  The team will only get better the more they play.

It's the fall, Michigan is playing football and my outlook overall is upbeat.  

Blue In NC

September 4th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^

Defensive depth and DL has me concerned.

OTOH, the RB situation looks better than I hoped so I am excited for the offense.

Overall expectations are about the same.

MaizeNBlueWizard

September 4th, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^

I’m very concerned with the interior defensive line, but other than that I am cautiously optimistic that we can beat all of our rivals and end up hoisting the big ten championship trophy. I don’t think we’re national championship caliber, but if we can get to the playoffs then recruiting will get even better and my confidence in Harbaugh will blossom.  

Umich19

September 4th, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^

We're not Alabama or Clemson, so the performance Saturday given the number of starters replaced, and those held out for injury should have been expected.  Obviously its nice to see your team look flawless week 1, but if you look through the top 10 most teams didn't dominate their opponent for 4 quarters.  Anyone drawing conclusions from this game is simply grasping for straws at this point imo.  Albeit, the idea of Ben Mason as our starting DT doesn't seem to bode well against high level O-lines, but Don Brown's track record strongly suggests the defense will be fine as the season progresses.  Don't forget what he was able to do with BC's talent level against some pretty good opponents...

mgobleu

September 4th, 2019 at 11:05 AM ^

I didn't really have a solid season prediction in mind this year, I just hoped for M to blow up and OSU to look a little lost, so Saturdays results are... mixed.

I hate to say it but I've gone from 60/40 M in The Game to now dipping my toes in the BPONE. 

A good game this weekend could change my mind though. 

JPC

September 4th, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^

I hate to say it but I've gone from 60/40 M in The Game to now dipping my toes in the BPONE. 

Reality is not the same as BPONE. After what we lost on D and the transition cost of a new offense, it was pure homerism to put UM as the favorite over OSU.

Day schemed UM's worst loss to OSU, potentially ever, and he did it with a pretty shitty defense. OSU should always be considered at best a toss up until Michigan actually beats OSU.

mgobleu

September 4th, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^

Well this isn't necessarily reality yet either. They may very well get it to click in the next couple games and light it up through the rest of the season. 

Given the past decade or so, I don't really expect that to happen. Thus; BPONE'd.

PopeLando

September 4th, 2019 at 11:07 AM ^

Yeah, my expectations have changed a bit. Maybe unfairly, I was hoping for an Alabama-esque "let's run it up on people" approach. Well, it's pretty clear that's not going to happen.

So maybe the overall outlook on number of wins and outcomes haven't changed, but I really wanted us to put up some silly point totals. That helps when it comes to the playoff selection, which I hope we're in contention for. 

Sione For Prez

September 4th, 2019 at 11:09 AM ^

No real change. Feel better about CB with Ambry playing and Vincent Gray looking good. Still worried about DT with current injuries and freshman not being quite ready especially against teams like Wisconsin and Iowa who will have no problem lining up and running it down your face 50 plays in a row. 

Blue Middle

September 4th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^

Not worried about Iowa.  Wisconsin on the road and OSU are the two games I believe we are likely to lose.  MSU, PSU, and ND are all other possibilities.

Still, 10-2 feels likely to me.  We'll really know how good this team is after the game in Madison.

SilleyAce711

September 4th, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^

Nope.  Expecting/predicting 9-3 and saw a 3 loss team this past Saturday.  Watching Shea take unnecessary hits, make very slow reads in the passing game and the fact that he made some very risky throws again tells me that his growth this off season has been minimal if he hasn't taken a step back. He'll put up large numbers under Gattis for sure, but against quality teams he will turn the ball over like he already has.  For the D, felt and looked like a D that will be a solid Don Brown D, but will give up big plays on QB runs, crossing routes and rub routes against explosive and talented teams again.  

 

Soulfire21

September 4th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^

In the immediate aftermath of the game I had more of a pessimistic outlook, but after some introspection, I'm not sure it moved the needle either way for me.

Probably still at 11-2 including the bowl game (assumes no major injuries of course). A loss to OSU keeps us out of playing for the Big Ten championship (again).

MotownGoBlue

September 4th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^

 

Get ready and get well Michael Dwumfour, Donovan Jeter, Mazi Smith, and Chris Hinton.

If we can get a productive season from just one of those guys, I think our DLine is not only salvageable but actually pretty damn good.

I’m a big fan of Paye, Kemp, and Mason but they just aren’t built for interior DLinemen in the B1G.  

 

Not at all worried about other facets of the game...playmakers everywhere.

Just have to stay healthy. 

ak47

September 4th, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^

Not really, 10-2 or 9-3 has always been the most likely outcome for this team. I guess I'm a little more pessimistic in that my hopes for 11-1 or 12-0 and being a truly elite team took a hit and Wisconsin and PSU both looked good which increases the chances of losing to those teams.

Icehole Woody

September 4th, 2019 at 11:29 AM ^

Any concern I had about CB play went away.  RB position stronger than I had hoped for.  About the same concern level over the middle of the DL but that will get better once Dwumfour and Jeter are healthy.  Offense is going to be downright nasty once Runyan and DPJ return.  So, I would say my outlook on the season has improved.

Go Blue!

Khaleke The Freak

September 4th, 2019 at 11:31 AM ^

I’ve had to talk a few people off the ledge, my expectations haven’t changed though...most of the Big10 played garbage teams in Week 1.  The fumbles and dropped passes will be cleaned up, not a talent issue IMO.  Our starting offensive and defensive tackles didn’t even play (along with DPJ).  Beat Army, rest and the team should have all the weapons by Wisconsin.

GoBlue1969

September 4th, 2019 at 11:32 AM ^

I think I projected 2 losses before the season started- it is a brutal schedule. It is the first game, and I know there will be some adjustments to actual game-speed at first. 

However, we need to understand ourselves. 12 years since App. State, and other bad things that have happened on game day- we as fans have PTSD as far as stuff like that. So when you see us fumble on the first play of the season, and then see a small school take a 7-0 lead, that we already know is a well coached and hungry, fearsome team ready to do their best to take down college football's winningest program, we get nervous and jittery and walk out onto that ledge ready to jump off and give up on our football program. 

It's how we are made up now. Also, we see Ohio score 21 points in the first few minutes of their opener, we tend to expect more of that from our team. 

I still see reality of a 2 loss season, but it is possible that if the team finishes the season strong (something we haven't seen for the past couple)- a more competitive game against the Buckeyes even with a loss, and a solid bowl win- I don't see anything wrong with that kind of season. 

Coach Harbaugh is not going anywhere. He is still building a top program. I am NOT willing to go through what we Wolverine fans have gone through these past 12 years. It is painful to be a Michigan fan, and we need to stick to what the plan is with Coach Harbaugh. We are also in a top conference- as tough to get through as any in the country. And to survive it and stay healthy to the rival game, it takes depth and toughness. I believe Coach has built that, and is continuing to build.

Excited for the season, and will yell at the TV when things don't go perfect- it is Michigan football. Love it and love to hate it at times!! Go Blue!!

Hucklebyforpresident

September 4th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^

My opinion has not changed. I am still very optimistic. 

I thought MTSU came in with an excellent defensive game plan. I thought we effectively beat their scheme. Like any first game, we had some issues... the fumbles, incomplete catchable balls, and the dropped interception. Without these miscues we probably win by the spread amount and more. 

That being said, a first week win is always good! There are some items to clean up, for sure. Young players got good game experience. Most position groups played well. The running backs blocked well and ran well too. DB’s were mostly excellent. QB’s were good to excellent. OL was good to excellent. Punter was good. Placekickers were good. Kickoffs were high and deep enough for fair catches. Some of the linebacker play was good, but that’s the place I’m hoping for the most improvement. 

Their QB got the ball out quick when they passed, so it is difficult to evaluate our pass rush. I saw some DE mistakes but they were minimal. 

Looking forward to watching the Army game Saturday (in person).

GO BLUE!

The Mad Hatter

September 4th, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^

I didn't really have a preseason outlook for the team.  There were just too many unknowns.  I was pessimistic because of OSU and the bowl game and losing all that talent on defense.  Optimistic for the new offensive system and Patterson's continued development.

I honestly have no idea what's going to happen this year.  If we beat Wisconsin the sky is the limit.  If they roll us, prepare for some pain in November.

 

Bluetotheday

September 4th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^

Not at all. We have all the pieces and experience on offense to win the BIG. The D will regress due to the personnel lost but year 4 of browns systems yields great results. 

In my opinion, the offense will be the reason Michigan wins big or doesn’t.  

myislanduniverse

September 4th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^

Not really. Sample size is small: one game, trying on a new offense, playing a lot of new players and sharing reps, and the game was out of hand by the end of the 1st. It was effectively 3 quarters of garbage time.

ST3

September 4th, 2019 at 11:44 AM ^

My expectations are high, IF the team is relatively healthy (some injuries are bound to happen.) We were missing a fair number of players for numerous reasons. My expectations haven't changed.

Experience is a great teacher. I'd much rather Shea fumble against MTSU than MSU, or Hill drop a punt return versus MTSU than OSU, but it's also good for the coaches to see things live (like Hill returning punts) and realize, "Nope, we don't want to do that again."

blueinbeantown

September 4th, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^

Absolutely not.  Started 2 RS Fr T's.  Top WR in a boot.  Played against a well coached, tough and smart team.  Take out the TO's, dropped TD pass and Pick 6, you're looking at a blowout.  Sure when measured against other competitor wins, maybe not the masterpiece everyone was looking for.  I'd rather go against competition that will pay dividends than run up the score against the Sisters of Mercy any day.  

Midukman

September 4th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^

I thought Saturday’s game just felt weird and uncomfortable to be honest. Maybe not bad just not what I expected. I don’t take away much from that performance but will definitely be looking for some rust to be knocked off against Army. 

buddha

September 4th, 2019 at 12:02 PM ^

I don’t particularly look at preseason NFL performances as a predictor of regular season performance. Similarly, there’s not much I take away from this game...

with that in mind - and fully breaking my rule above - I was very impressed with Wisconsin. They played - frankly - like I expected UM to play. They took a bad team to the woodshed and never let up. I’ll be curious how they do over the next few weeks before hosting us.

Perkis-Size Me

September 4th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^

No. It's game one with a team that's still learning a new offense. You had quite a few guys who are still nursing injuries and working their way back to 100% (Runyan, Dwumfour, Jeter, and DPJ just to name a few). Having them back will make a difference. 

What I will say I'm concerned about, though, is Wisconsin. You know what they want to do on offense, and they're going to run it right at what is arguably the weakest point on the defense. I don't know how good or bad USF really is, but Wisconsin arguably looked like the most convincing Big Ten team last week. So I'm probably slightly more concerned about that game because of how Wisconsin looked, not because of how Michigan looked. 

That's one game where you've got to give the defense as much rest as possible. The safest place you can be in that game is with Jonathan Taylor on the sidelines. 

444

September 4th, 2019 at 12:04 PM ^

I was very optimistic at the game until that screaming rabbit came on the screen.  It put the fear of God into me.  What was that thing and please make it go away.

Salinger

September 4th, 2019 at 12:06 PM ^

I can't wait to see what Brian has to say about this game in the UFR. I feel like the eyeball test was quite deceiving in this game. It didn't look great, but I think the stats and breakdown will come out with Michigan looking a bit better than we think.

There are things that need to be cleaned up and personnel that will hopefully significantly alter out expectations vis a vis the defensive interior line. 

Lastly, knee jerk reactions to single games (especially first games!!) do tend to de-prioritize a team's ability to, you know, get better over time. If we would have gone off of last year's ND game as 100% predictive, I think we would all say the season's outcome would have been significantly worse than the actual outcome.

TL;DR -- I'm conservatively optimistic.

Brianj25

September 4th, 2019 at 12:12 PM ^

I was sold on the idea that this was the year we were going to finally win a B1G championship. After watching the game I was discouraged. Then I watched the full replays of the Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State games, and now I’m even more discouraged. 

The B1G East is the toughest division in college football. OSU absolutely curb-stomped a mud hole in their opponent despite what the final score says. Penn State absolutely curb-stomped a mud hole in their opponent even in light of the fact that it was Idaho. Even Michigan State jumped out to an early 25-0 lead and looked like they were completely checked out with an incredibly easy win before the end of the first half. 

We on the other hand won by 19 in a game we were favored by 35, trailed 7-3 until the end of the first quarter, and I had in the pit of my stomach a nauseated, anxiety-induced feeling about a looming Appalachian State-esque upset until we sealed the W just before the fourth quarter. 

It’s one game. The first game. And it means very little in the grand scheme of things. But it seems to me like the battle for the B1G East is going to be a dramatically more difficult task than I anticipated prior to Week 1. Never mind beating whomever comes out of the West, likely Wisconsin, who is going to be tough to beat once and would be even tougher to beat twice. 

Whatever. I’m excited for the season and I expect things to improve but I’m a little disappointed (emphasis on the little part) that we won’t be cakewalking to a Conference Championship.