Friday's Rooting Guide - Michigan ON THE BUBBLE edition!
What a win last night! Considering what was on the line, I'm so proud of the men in Maize and Blue! Our odds of making the tournament increased greatly after last night, more about that in a second. Typically Fridays are pretty quiet on the college basketball front but there are some good games for folks to tune into tonight. Before we dig into the games, let's look at where Michigan stands:
- After our Quad-1 road win last night, Michigan's NET ranking made a huge jump from 62 to 53
- Our win against MSU is 5 spots from a Quad-1 win, Pitt is also 5 spots away
- KenPom and Torvik are basically in agreement where we stand at 44 & 46 respectively.
- Lunardi at ESPN just updated his bracket and he has us in his 'Next 4 out' category (7 spots from the cut line), just ahead of New Mexico and just behind Clemson.
Alright, let's look at tonight's games that matter to Michigan:
- Xavier at Seton Hall (Xavier by 1.5) - 7pm EST on FS1 - Really intriguing matchup here. Michigan is ahead of Seton Hall in the pecking order with most Bracketologists but a win against Xavier could change that. They are 69 on the NET ranking and have 3 Quad-1 wins. We're rooting for the Musketeers here.
- Richmond at VCU (VCU by 9) - 7pm on ESPN2 - This is another kind of interesting game. The key here is, both Dayton and VCU have a chance to make the tourney. We gotta hope that one of them wins the A-10 championship and the other doesn't have a good enough resume to sneak in. Anything we can do to keep Dayton and VCU's resumes down as much as possible, the better. Sorry Brandon Johns & Zeb Jackson, rooting for the Spiders here.
- Marshall at Old Dominion (Marshall by 3.5) - 7pm on ESPN+ - Kind of the same thing applies here as with VCU. Marshall has a gaudy overall record and we don't want them being a bid stealer if they lose in the Sun Belt. Go Big Blue!
- Lipscomb at Stetson (Stetson by 1.5) - 7pm on ESPN+ - This one is a bit obscure but hear me out! Interestingly enough, Lipscomb, who Michigan beat earlier in the season, is actually having a pretty good season! They're 18-12 on the year and are only 10 spots away from being a Quad-3 win. A road win against a higher NET ranking team will get them closer. Every little bit counts, let's go Lipscomb!
- Southern Miss at Texas State (USM by 2.5) - 8pm on ESPN+ - We talked about the Sun Belt a little earlier with Marshall, this is the other team Marshall is competing with in the Sun Belt. Southern Miss is currently 83 on the NET-ranking and we don't want them sneaking in if they lose in the Sun Belt tournament. Rooting for Texas State here.
- Nevada at Fresno State (Nevada by 3) - 11pm on FS1 - Hands down, this is the most important game for Michigan today. Nevada is 32 on the NET-rankings and are just above the cut line on most brackets. A loss to 162nd ranked Fresno State would change that quite a bit. This one would be a big help to Michigan's chances down the road.
One game at a time. But let's get some help over the next 2 days! Big update coming tomorrow with lots of games on Saturday. Go Blue!
February 24th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
Since you seem to do these daily, and they are a really helpful guide, just a suggestion that it might be nice to add an update on the previous day's results vs rooting interest.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
That's my bad, RC. I had been doing that the last few days but just didn't today. Here's a recap of how last night went:
There were 7 games we were watching last night and 3 of them went our way: Michigan, UCLA, and Charlotte.
Sadly, Northwestern blew a freakin' 18 point halftime lead to lose by 4 at Illinois. Penn State and Memphis both squeezed out road wins to poor teams, and Towson almost knocked of College of Charleston but just didn't have enough left in the tank. I'll be sure to recap today's game in tomorrow morning's post.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
I think Michigan needs to win their way in. Sure, it would help if Northwestern ends up with a stronger overall record, but Michigan beating Illinois on the road ought to carry a lot more weight.
(I write "ought to", because I'm not familiar with the maths).
February 24th, 2023 at 1:22 PM ^
What we do is definitely more important than what our opponents do in other games. Still, if Northwestern could win enough so that both of our wins over them are Q1, that could help in the margins.
February 24th, 2023 at 1:36 PM ^
For Northwestern to move into the top 30 from 39th is highly unlikely at this point. But yeah, a win for them last night would have helped a lot (we also generally want teams we play twice to beat teams we only play once).
Better chance that MSU moves up from 35th or Pitt moves into the top 50 from 55th. One or both of those happening would be nice.
But agree that Michigan has to win their way in, which means they must take care of business at home v Wisconsin on Sunday and they have to win at least one on the road at Illinois or IU.
They'll probably be in at the point, especially with a win in the BTT but they would be pretty squarely on the bubble such that the MSU and/or Pitt games getting to q1 could matter. Michigan really has a pretty good resume except they could use a little better record against q1 and ugh, that CMU loss.
But SoS is good. Q2 and Q3 records are great.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
Illinois is so weird - they're basically where UM was last year per KenPom (27th) and have an underwhelming conference record (10-7)...but they also have wins over UCLA and Texas. They could make an Elite 8 run or get bounced in the first round and it mostly depends on if Terrence Shannon goes off or not.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
Beat Wisconsin
February 24th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
hopefully not with a fist
February 24th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
Or an open hand.
February 24th, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^
But they have such punchable faces.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
I feel like we need to beat them soundly. They beat us by 5 at their place. If we can beat them by 12-15, that would clearly show we are better than them, head to head.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
That means nothing in basketball. Win by 1 or win by 100 its the same thing. You can win on the road buy 20 and lose at home by 20 to the same team 2 weeks later
February 24th, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
It can be relevant in college basketball. If Michigan and Wisconsin are vying for the same spot and the last memory the committee has is Michigan beating Wisconsin by 20 points it would matter.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
Points for/against also does factor into the Net rankings as well.
February 25th, 2023 at 1:52 AM ^
Yes, but your opponents NET rankings matter more than your own because that's how the quadrants are determined. And Wisconsin is ranked 70th in NET. If Michigan beats them by a lot, Wisconsin would drop out of the top 75 and the road loss turns from q1 to q2 and the home win would be a q3 instead of q2.
One could argue it would be better for Michigan to win a close game.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^
Scoring margin does matter in terms of efficiency metrics. Wins and losses matter the most but if UM's efficiency goes up (and their opponents' goes down) then that helps UM overall. And as a proxy if you beat a team by more points it tends to be because you played more efficiently while they played worse.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Your point is correct, but in so far as it relates to the game against Wisconsin it is moot. Michigan is already 20 spots above Wisconsin in both Kenpom and T-rank. So the theoretical MOV over Wisconsin, in this case, really has no effect. If Michigan were very similar in efficiency metric profile, then sure spanking the badgers by 15+ would really help, but it really does not matter here and now. Michigan just needs the win because they cannot afford a home loss, cannot allow a fellow bubble team to pick up a road Q1 win, and they need basically as many wins as they can get in Q1 and Q2.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
Pitt is playing such weak competition, they are winning but they are dropping in the NET. The same is going to probably happen with their next two opponents (vs Syracuse, @ND). They are likely going to need to win @Miami to become a quad 1 win again.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
Or do well in the ACC tournament
February 25th, 2023 at 2:00 AM ^
They can move up by blowing out Syracuse and/or ND. NET is pretty heavily margin based. So for bad teams, if you win close you drop, but if you win big, you can still move up.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
To have a chance we need one more road win and win 2 games in the tournament. It is possible with this team. I just hope they don't go cold at the end of the upcoming games.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
I'm actually going to disagree. Pretty much every model shows, if we win against Wisconsin on Sunday (no gimmie) and win one of IU or Illini, we would only need 1 win in the BTT to be fine. If we go 1-2 in the next 3, we'll need to likely win 2 games in the BTT.
Basically the math is, 3 wins and we're in.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
I think I agree except for the case where we lose to both IUs to end the season. Whether 2 BTT wins is enough depends on which teams those are - I can't imagine that it would be enough if one of those is Minnesota
February 24th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
You're sort of correct, in that college basketball fans way over rate conference tourney victories, see Texas A&M last year who made the conference final and lost and didn't make it in. However, in Michigan's case, if they finish the season 1-2, they are almost guaranteed to play in the 8/9 game which means that that 2nd win would be against Purdue. So that would be a big resume booster.
I think we are essentially at the point where 3 more wins is a lock to make the tournament.
February 24th, 2023 at 7:24 PM ^
If we finish the season 1-2, we'll have 14 losses going into the BTT and will have slid down the S-curve again. The chance to play Purdue isn't worth that tradeoff. (Besides, do you really like our chances in a do-or-die game against the best team in the conference?)
It'd be a lot better for our nerves to just win two of the next three. Then we've done the heavy lifting before Chicago. Better yet, win all three and punch our ticket.
February 25th, 2023 at 2:04 AM ^
yeah, the committee tends to not weight conference tourney games as heavily or even at all depending on when they happen. If Michigan only wins 1 of their last 3, they're in trouble. I don't think 2 wins in BTT would even get them there.
But if they win 2 of 3, they're probably in, possibly without even needing to win a BTT game (like last year).
February 24th, 2023 at 2:00 PM ^
both IUs
There's only one IU in the Big Ten. Illinois and Iowa are both UI.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Yeah, I do think this is a repeat of last year where a bunch of people assumed UM was terrible and then when the actual seeding goes out they weren't even in the play-in game. The CMU loss is the only real anchor on their resume and a 3-2 finish to the year is probably going to be enough to get them over the hump.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^
Yeah they are sort of in a weird spot. If they go 2-3 then they probably don't even make it, but if they go 3-2 then they aren't in a play-in game and can get up a 10 seed.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
Yeah, and I think I saw somewhere that if they win 2 BTT games they're basically a 9 seed. The tournament field is REALLY fluid.
February 24th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^
And I feel like we say this every year, but man I would MUCH prefer to be in the 10-12 range. Avoiding those #1 seeds in the 2nd round is such a bonus. But at this point, we certainly can't be picky.
February 24th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
Yeah there is virtually no difference between a 7 and 10 seed (same as a 8/9) and there is a big drop off between 1 seeds and 2 seeds. I don't even think Tennessee was favored against Michigan in the 2nd round. If they were it was not by much.
February 24th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
Tennessee was the 3 seed. They were definitely favored against us. I’m not sure about CSU in the first round though.
February 24th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
Michigan was favored against CSU, but was an underdog against Tenn.
February 25th, 2023 at 2:07 AM ^
Agree that 3-2 definitely would be enough, but might have them in a play in.
Last year Michigan had really solid metric (27th in kenpom and near there in NET I think) and I think that really helped their seeding. This year, the quality metrics aren't nearly as good, although trending in the right direction.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
Thanks, True.
Go Blue!
1-0 too.
February 24th, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
Rooting Guide >>>>>>> CFB risk
February 24th, 2023 at 12:04 PM ^
Wow!! Jerry Palm with CBS Sports just put out his outdated bracket and he has us as the 3rd team from the cut line! We're right there, y'all!
February 24th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
I'd feel better if Jerry Palm wasn't one of the worst bracketologists out there!
But I do like seeing Michigan that close to the cut line.
February 24th, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
And if he wasn't using an outdated bracket...
February 24th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
He typically hates us so this actually is kind of good to see.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
Dayton alum and I can promise you Dayton and VCU have no chance at an at-large. A-10 is a one-bid league.
February 24th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
We are most likely going to find our way in. Now come tournament time, I wonder how we work Jett back in.
The best basketball we have played this year has been in his absence:
Home vs Purdue
Last 1/4 vs MSU
Second Half vs Rutgers.
The spacing and ball movement is just so much better and I don't think that is an indictment on Jett per se. It seems they just rely on him to do more hero ball stuff. At this point though as a college player, Kobe is a better go-to guy because he looks to attack more than create space and hit a pull up.
I know this wouldn't happen, but I wouldn't mind say in the tournament Jett come off the bench and serve as a Jamal Crawford in the NBA type. Someone who has the consistent green light while he plays with the other rotational players while Kobe & Hunter/Tarris get a breather.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:09 PM ^
I don't know if that's entirely fair. We demolished Pitt, Maryland and Northwestern with Jett in the lineup.
That said, he's been struggling at both ends lately. Even before his latest injury I was wondering if he was fully healthy, or if he just hit the freshman wall.
February 25th, 2023 at 2:12 AM ^
Yeah, but that was three games out of like 20. Sometimes you get hot (or the other team doesn't).
We've played well in all 3 out of 3 games that he didn't play.
February 24th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
GO BLUE
February 24th, 2023 at 2:07 PM ^
I honestly can’t believe they’re even being considered with how this season has gone.
They have a legit chance which makes some of the close losses even more heartbreaking. They just needed one or two of those and we’d be talking about seed lines and not the bubble.
February 24th, 2023 at 2:37 PM ^
We are 4 baskets from a 6 seed. Crazy.
February 24th, 2023 at 4:40 PM ^
Thank You! I love these updates...Now that we have a pulse again its Must read...Thanks for all your research.
February 24th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
Thanks for doing this. It keeps me from trying to do it in my head, incorrectly.
Win and Advance.