Friday's Rooting Guide - Michigan ON THE BUBBLE edition!
What a win last night! Considering what was on the line, I'm so proud of the men in Maize and Blue! Our odds of making the tournament increased greatly after last night, more about that in a second. Typically Fridays are pretty quiet on the college basketball front but there are some good games for folks to tune into tonight. Before we dig into the games, let's look at where Michigan stands:
- After our Quad-1 road win last night, Michigan's NET ranking made a huge jump from 62 to 53
- Our win against MSU is 5 spots from a Quad-1 win, Pitt is also 5 spots away
- KenPom and Torvik are basically in agreement where we stand at 44 & 46 respectively.
- Lunardi at ESPN just updated his bracket and he has us in his 'Next 4 out' category (7 spots from the cut line), just ahead of New Mexico and just behind Clemson.
Alright, let's look at tonight's games that matter to Michigan:
- Xavier at Seton Hall (Xavier by 1.5) - 7pm EST on FS1 - Really intriguing matchup here. Michigan is ahead of Seton Hall in the pecking order with most Bracketologists but a win against Xavier could change that. They are 69 on the NET ranking and have 3 Quad-1 wins. We're rooting for the Musketeers here.
- Richmond at VCU (VCU by 9) - 7pm on ESPN2 - This is another kind of interesting game. The key here is, both Dayton and VCU have a chance to make the tourney. We gotta hope that one of them wins the A-10 championship and the other doesn't have a good enough resume to sneak in. Anything we can do to keep Dayton and VCU's resumes down as much as possible, the better. Sorry Brandon Johns & Zeb Jackson, rooting for the Spiders here.
- Marshall at Old Dominion (Marshall by 3.5) - 7pm on ESPN+ - Kind of the same thing applies here as with VCU. Marshall has a gaudy overall record and we don't want them being a bid stealer if they lose in the Sun Belt. Go Big Blue!
- Lipscomb at Stetson (Stetson by 1.5) - 7pm on ESPN+ - This one is a bit obscure but hear me out! Interestingly enough, Lipscomb, who Michigan beat earlier in the season, is actually having a pretty good season! They're 18-12 on the year and are only 10 spots away from being a Quad-3 win. A road win against a higher NET ranking team will get them closer. Every little bit counts, let's go Lipscomb!
- Southern Miss at Texas State (USM by 2.5) - 8pm on ESPN+ - We talked about the Sun Belt a little earlier with Marshall, this is the other team Marshall is competing with in the Sun Belt. Southern Miss is currently 83 on the NET-ranking and we don't want them sneaking in if they lose in the Sun Belt tournament. Rooting for Texas State here.
- Nevada at Fresno State (Nevada by 3) - 11pm on FS1 - Hands down, this is the most important game for Michigan today. Nevada is 32 on the NET-rankings and are just above the cut line on most brackets. A loss to 162nd ranked Fresno State would change that quite a bit. This one would be a big help to Michigan's chances down the road.
One game at a time. But let's get some help over the next 2 days! Big update coming tomorrow with lots of games on Saturday. Go Blue!
February 24th, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
For some reason, I’m seeing Michigan in one of the play-in games this year. Does anyone else see that as a good possibility? I dunno. Just a hunch that’s where we’ll land.
February 24th, 2023 at 8:01 PM ^
Lunardi routinely finishes in the middle of the over 100 Bracket predictors.His opinions get way more attention that deserved due to the gigantic ESPN platform.The Bracket Matrix is a far better source.
February 24th, 2023 at 9:28 PM ^
The problem with Bracket Matrix is it’s only really relevant when your team enters brackets, which we aren’t yet. So we have to rely on Bracketologists for the “First Four Out”, since the matrix doesn’t include them.
February 25th, 2023 at 2:23 AM ^
But this applies to everyone and the matrix includes 7 teams (currently, this can vary of course) beyond the number of at larges available/other at larges. So 7 teams are being included in someones bracket (and hence are considered ahead of Michigan by the crowd) that the main bracket still doesn't even have room for.
ie. Michigan isn't amongst the first seven out in the matrix.
The bigger problem (for Michigan's inclusion) is that matrix lags somewhat significantly during the season. Currently, only about half of the brackets have been updated today. So half aren't even considering Michigan's road q1 win last night. Some haven't been updated since 2/22 or even 2/21.
Because of that, the matrix probably isn't better than any individual bracket that has updated their bracket today.
The matrix is great at the very end when all brackets are current and incorporating all info, but during the season, it is better to use brackets that are current. So you're doing the right thing sharing Lunardi and others that have been updated today. If they think Michigan is the 7th team out or the 3rd team out (in the case of Palm), good chance someone puts them in their bracket when they update.
February 25th, 2023 at 2:51 AM ^
Posted most of this above but the matrix lags during the season, some haven't been updated since 2/22 or even 2/21. So those that have been updated today, are better than the matrix right now because they incorporate all info. That's why Lunardi does deserve attention. He updates his bracket every day at this point in the season I believe.
The matrix isn't that great until the very end when all the brackets are current. Then the wisdom of the crowd wins out.
February 24th, 2023 at 9:03 PM ^
Looks like 3-2 before the night cap. I may watch that one just for shits and giggles.
February 24th, 2023 at 9:30 PM ^
Yep, nice night so far to be honest! That Marshall loss is brutal for them. I’d guess Seton Hall would likely have to make the Big East final now as well. And nice Lipscomb OT win on the road!
February 24th, 2023 at 11:47 PM ^
For some reason Michigan has moved from the 7th team out to the 5th team out from earlier today