First line I’ve seen UM -7, O/U 46.5. Thoughts?

Submitted by Buy Bushwood on November 5th, 2023 at 3:33 PM

I feel like we should cover given PSU’s abjectly horrible offense.  I’d take the under and think it will look like a 30-13 game.   

Football

M-Dog

November 5th, 2023 at 5:43 PM ^

I'm looking for us to do that Georgia thing where you are skeptical because of who they played, and then they show you they've had an extra gear all along that they can use when needed.

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 257576

Niels

November 5th, 2023 at 5:50 PM ^

Some quick thoughts:

1) I bet the line will move towards PSU. 5-6 seems more right to me

2) It's good (for us) that it's not a night game. Happy Valley is a hard place to play at noon and a REALLY hard place to play during a nighttime white out

3) I think building a lead by the end of the 3rd quarter is of critical importance. I don't worry about Aller if um is up >1 score but I could see a tight game going sideways .

Joined: 09/04/2009

MGoPoints: 3430

bighouseinmate

November 5th, 2023 at 6:36 PM ^

The whole running the ball thing is fine, IMO. We haven’t had the success of the previous two years, but to a team, every one of our opponents thus far has sold out in some form to stop the run and despite that the run game has done what it has needed to do. PSU is a different animal in that they likely believe they don’t need to sell out to stop the run like other teams have and that may be their downfall and the reemergence of DE’s danger man tag and BC’s effectiveness in gaining 4yds a pop or more. I don’t personally think PSU has the backend everyone believes, either, and JJ will get his game going after a rusty performance yesterday. The offense should be fine.

Joined: 12/19/2008

MGoPoints: 5003

JH2

November 5th, 2023 at 7:04 PM ^

Easy solution is at the moment it happens immediately remove the garment and start licking b4 the stain sets. Just remember to stay away from a public setting as the smell of peanut butter will definitely lead to identifying you as a nerdy dork or dorky nerd.

 

Joined: 10/30/2023

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RoseInBlue

November 5th, 2023 at 7:02 PM ^

I think people are overreacting to the Maryland game.  Allar has been good (not great) all season when not pressured.  Maryland is not good at creating pressure and didn't do so in that game.  I'm not saying Penn State isn't a good team or that it won't be a tough game but the Maryland game wasn't them turning some corner.  It was more of what we've seen all season long.  Give Allar enough time in the pocket and he'll carve up a defense on short to intermediate throws usually not throwing any further than 10 yards downfield.

Joined: 02/21/2016

MGoPoints: 6692

Durham Blue

November 5th, 2023 at 7:04 PM ^

I have a feeling that the running game will do a lot more in this game than people think.  I just think Frames/Diaz will be looking to stop JJ from throwing the ball and focus less on the run.  Predictions based on flimsy evidence: 1) Corum gets 100+ yards rushing; 2) DE gets 85+ yards rushing on two long-ish TD runs.  For the game we finish with 200+ rushing yards.  JJ still throws for 250-ish yards.

Joined: 10/09/2008

MGoPoints: 30114

DHughes5218

November 5th, 2023 at 7:09 PM ^

I don’t want JJ running a lot and sliding if he does. It seems like Penn State players like dive on players once they’re down. Little cheap shots that can take a toll on your body. They’ll fall on your legs or put their pads into your ribs and I don’t want those cheap coming down on McCarthy. 

Joined: 10/04/2014

MGoPoints: 7301

M-jed

November 5th, 2023 at 7:26 PM ^

34-8 about to repeat itself. 
JJ runs a bit. We feed Corum so he gets into a rhythm and runs *enough*. Too many receivers to cover. Pick 6 or sackstripfumble return round us out. Allar ain’t seen shit yet. 

Joined: 10/09/2010

MGoPoints: 3078

NJblue2

November 5th, 2023 at 8:45 PM ^

I feel like it will be a really close game. I think their defense is legit good and will make offense a grind for us especially since I just don't think our run game is great. I've been hoping it will find that extra gear, but it is what it is at this point and it's a good one, but not elite. 

I expect our defense to limit them but I'm not sure, I just have a feeling they'll dink and dunk successfully enough to move the ball, maybe not score TDs. I think Michigan by 7 is fair, but I would feel better at like -4.5.

Joined: 08/08/2010

MGoPoints: 30988

uminks

November 5th, 2023 at 10:10 PM ^

This is the game where Michigan opens up the run option with JJ, that may create lanes for Corum. But TEs will probably be important to Michigan offensive game plan, much like 2021.I was more fearful of PSU offense last year. But I think PSU defense is better than 2022.

Joined: 11/10/2009

MGoPoints: 32125