ESPN has UM as favorites to win CFP, but also... ESPN can't math
December 6th, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
I was thinking the other 20% was going to Ohio State.
December 6th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
Graph must have referenced these numbers:
December 6th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
Pretty fascinating how the team left out has the second highest predictive probability of winning it all.
I guess it's not as good as the predictors on the committee.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:25 PM ^
I was about to say that. How unlikely it was for Texas AND Bama both make and FSU lose out, based on ESPN probabilities. Maybe they are just talking out of their ass.
December 6th, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^
Maybe they are just talking out of their ass.
Wait… you mean… ESPN?????
December 6th, 2023 at 8:47 PM ^
Ole plant based Pete got his way. If we do win it all can he pull himself out of Thamel long enough to recognize it?
December 6th, 2023 at 5:25 PM ^
If that is what they are basing it on, then we can back out the "if they do make it to the playoffs, what is their probability of winning the whole thing?" numbers:
Michigan 41%
Alabama 31%
Texas 27%
Washington 11%
December 6th, 2023 at 5:31 PM ^
Is that what they mean by giving it 110%?
December 6th, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^
Of course, those probabilities are inflated since they all depend on FSU being one of the playoff teams and only one of Bama/Texas. Since Bama and Texas are both tougher opponents than FSU in terms of win probability, everyone's probability will decrease a bit.
I also imagine there is some impact now that the playoff matchups are set. Texas' odds are probably higher since they got the Washington matchup, while Michigan and Bama decrease by virtue of playing each other.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
Lol at them trying to be analytical about the decisions of a committee.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^
So they can math but ESPN is both lazy and stupid.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:48 PM ^
20% chance the transfer portal wipes out the playoff, obviously.
December 6th, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
there’s a 20% chance the world ends on any given day I guess
December 6th, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
can't rule out a chemtrail incident either
another 2% right there
December 6th, 2023 at 4:51 PM ^
Interesting, wonder if it was a transcription error and the middle two should be 20 something. The units digits add up to 10, so maybe it's just that
December 6th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
They lifted the numbers from an earlier Allstate Predictor chart that included FSU, osu & UGA.
December 6th, 2023 at 7:50 PM ^
Then it's lazy journalism on their part. But hey, it was lazy journalism that kept the signgate thing going.
December 6th, 2023 at 4:52 PM ^
They could all lose, you know...
(pretty sure that's how math works)
December 6th, 2023 at 4:54 PM ^
Fuck ESPN
December 6th, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
My guess is that Washington is supposed to be at 31%. Then it's in ranked order and only one digit would need to be wrong.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:00 PM ^
60% of the time it works every time.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^
I’m more of a London Gentleman and Blackbeard’s Delight man myself.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^
ESPN gives ‘em a 50/50 chance of winning, though there’s only a 10% chance of that.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:12 PM ^
There's a 20% chance that the committee selects an SEC team after it's over, regardless of who won on the field. Screw that crazy idea that winning games should be all that matters.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:28 PM ^
The computers like us a heck of a lot more than the humans. I'm having a hard time finding a non-Michigan person willing to back us. I hope this continues for three more weeks and the players feed off it.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:29 PM ^
"Telling figures indeed, but what do they mean to you, what do they mean to me, what do they mean to the average man in the street?"
December 6th, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^
I think it’s too early to tell.
December 6th, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
So, do they think somehow Georgia or Ohio State has the other 20%?
December 6th, 2023 at 5:46 PM ^
Production quality continues to suffer over there.
December 6th, 2023 at 6:28 PM ^
The production quality will suffer until ratings improve
December 6th, 2023 at 6:02 PM ^
Guessing the Allstate Playoff Predictor uses only computer stats. If so, it's prediction makes perfect sense. All the computer algorithm sites have Michigan a clear step-above Alabama.
Listen to humans, who are controlled by their emotions, or listen to the algorithms? You cant fight the math.
#GoBlue
December 6th, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^
Downvoted for signal-boosting a rag that tried to take down our program.
FFS this isn’t even news; it’s a take. You want a take you can just ask around here.
December 6th, 2023 at 6:22 PM ^
It's the Pete Fartbomb Factor.
20% of CFB fans will never recognize the Natty no matter who wins.
December 6th, 2023 at 6:29 PM ^
Clearly the other 20% is for Liberty.
December 6th, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
They're doing calculus on this one and saying UM has a 20% chance of vacating their title. Therefore we have a 61% chance of winning
December 6th, 2023 at 7:46 PM ^
ESPN doesn't know how to do math. How can it be that with only 4 teams eligible to win the CFP Championship the number do not add up to 100%? Simple answer is they should.
Let's keep Michigan at a 41% chance of winning, that will leave the remaining 3 teams with 20%, 20% and 19%.
My advice to ESPN is to reprogram the computer to the only 4 teams eligible. How hard is that?
December 6th, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^
This is rat poison.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:34 PM ^
Just got my e-mail from UM Athletics to request tickets to the championship game (should the Wolverines prevail at the Rose Bowl). Ticket prices range from $475-$1300. plus fees. Allocations will be based on priority points.
1000 points and up can request 6 tickets.
500-999: 4 tickets
<500: 3 tickets
An earlier e-mail said only those with 500 points and up could request tickets.
Wow!
December 6th, 2023 at 8:44 PM ^
Rat poison!
December 6th, 2023 at 8:51 PM ^
Good that you did the screenshot so that we won't have any need to click an E-S(EC)-P-N link.
December 6th, 2023 at 8:56 PM ^
How stupid is ESPN to go off script? If they want to have a charade they should see it through. Where are the SEC chest thumpers?
Love that FSU has greater odds to win it than Alabama.
I think this fell through the cracks or it was approved by AI.
December 7th, 2023 at 8:22 AM ^
ESPN was that kid in school who said "Why do I have to take a math class? I'm going to be a journalist. I'm never going to use again after this."
December 7th, 2023 at 8:58 AM ^
60% of the time it works everytime.
throw all the math and stats out of the equations. Whoever wins this game wins at the line of scrimmage. Football is as simple is that. Is our offensive line going to be able to protect our qb? If they do is good JJ going to show up or two pick 6 JJ going to show up? Love JJ but he is the reason we lost to tcu and also the reason we almost won. Can’t do quick side passes and sweeps against Bama they are to fast. Donavan hopefully plays wide receiver all game. I don’t believe any of our receivers match up well with their nfl defensive backs. But you can’t do any of this unless you win at the line of scrimmage.
on defense will you be able to stop the run, get to milroe? And keep him in the pocket. Surprisingly we have not really played a mobile qb yet and a qb who is this kind of speciman of an athlete. But again we have to win at the line of scrimmage. I believe minter is going to throw looks at milroe that he has not seen, and he sometimes will make bonehead throws as well.
but it all starts and ends with the lines
December 9th, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
Those are pereightyages, not percentages. But that's an easy mistake to make.