Emotion Aside, Were We a Better Football Team than OSU Last Year?

Submitted by DennisFranklinDaMan on April 25th, 2023 at 10:39 AM

Hear me out. 

OSU was favored by over a touchdown going into the game in Columbus last year, and *I* certainly expected us to lose, with all the emotional factors going against us (revenge, home-field advantage).

But neither the betting line nor my personal pessimism was just a function of two decades of Buckeye dominance. They were also based on how the Buckeyes had performed during the 2022 season compared to us, and how the two teams did against common opponents.

I know Seth, for instance, predicted another Michigan walloping, but I assumed (and continue to believe today) that he was ... spitting into the wind. Wishing it into being. Not because he honestly believed we would beat the Buckeyes by 20 in the Horseshoe.

And indeed, unlike most of the posters here, I think a few key plays did make the difference in that game. I still can't believe they didn't connect on that early 4th down throw, which I think could have made a big difference ... and Sanristil's play in the endzone was an all-timer.

Anyway, I'm rambling. I just wonder, emotion aside, were we genuinely a better team than the Buckeyes last year? I don't think we were, honestly ... and what they did against Georgia (compared to what we did against TCU, and what we did against Georgia the year before) was damned impressive.

Doesn't matter, of course. God knows the Buckeyes have beaten us when they weren't the better team, and we're definitely due some breaks in this series. I'm not proposing we give it back. Just wondering what, looking back at the season leading up to the OSU game, could possibly have indicated that result.

And, I guess ... does the MGoBlog intelligentsia really think we're a better team than the Buckeyes this year? Personally, I'm still going to assume they're going to beat us. :-)

SagNasty

April 25th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^

This reads like the Osu fans who keep saying, well it was really just 5 plays in the game as the reason osu lost. Which is extremely comical. Michigan was the better team and proved it on the field. End of story. 

AWAS

April 25th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^

Emotion aside, is this the worst post of OT season so far? 

I personally think so, especially if we discount the few key posts that moderators have nuked, locked, or edited.  

FrankMurphy

April 25th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^

OSU might have had more playmakers at the skill positions, but they had some critical weaknesses that Michigan exposed. For one thing, they couldn't generate a consistent pass rush against us. JJ was never really pressured, especially not in the second half. Their offensive line had been mediocre all year, which is why they were one of the worst teams in the country on 3rd or 4th and short. That's the reason Day called for a pass play on that failed 4th and 2 early in the game.

St Joe Blues

April 25th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^

By emotion aside, do you mean take the fear out of Stroud's eyes and the frustration out of the DLinemen's hearts and the dejection off the face of Stover after the pass break up and the angst out of the crowd in red in the stands?

CaliforniaNobody

April 25th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^

We're the ones who won The Game, and convincingly. Who gives a fuck? Bizarre thing for a supposed UM fan to post dude. I cannot believe you thought this would be well received. 

 

They had more talent on paper. Who cares?

TeslaRedVictorBlue

April 25th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^

fuck no. we were a better team. we were the better team that day. we were the better program. we have the better culture. we have the better uniforms. we have the better flag planting. we have the toughness.

This is horseshit.

Vasav

April 25th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^

This is like saying "Alabama was actually better than Tennessee because Tennessee lost to Georgia" which is bunkum because Bama didn't play Georgia and also our case is even stronger because Bama lost by a FG in Tennessee whereas WE WON BY 3TDs AND CHANGE IN OHIO.

Nevertheless, if we ignore the head to head, let's compare schedules?

OOC, both went 3-0. OSU was challenged by ND, and handled 2 bad teams. M handled 3 bad teams. Push.

Big Ten Schedule, only two teams were within 2 scores of M at the end of the game - Maryland and Illinois. The latter was absolutely an escape. Ohio State blew out everyone, altho against Penn State, Maryland and Northwestern, they did not look particularly good. We'll call Maryland a push. We definitely outplayed them compared to Penn State (home/away doesn't make that much of a difference on this). And we struggled mightily with Illinois while they struggled more than they should with the 2nd worst team in the Big Ten. If you want, you can squint and give them an advantage here. But it's mostly a push.

The Game, 45-23. Advantage: Michigan, by 3 TDs and change.

Big Ten Championship Game - well, Purdue kept it closer than Ohio State. Advantage, Michigan.

The Playoff - OSU played a better team close but lost. M played a worse team close and lost. Both games were within 1 score. If you want to give OSU a pat on the back for losing despite winning the TO battle, being outgained and watching UGA miss 2 FGs, that's fair compared to M losing while even on TOs and outgaining TCU. Advantage, OSU. Not by a whole lot, but we'll take the BTCG off the ledger as their consolation prize for losing impressively.

So the difference is 45-23. Which is what it was. When 2 teams are undefeated and playing for the title and one wins, typically you don't need to second guess it.

Monkey House

April 25th, 2023 at 1:25 PM ^

OSU had the biggest weakness of either team, that secondary. Michigan was better on the both lines, RB, te, and the secondary. OSU was better at wr,draw on lb and QB. 

Vasav

April 25th, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^

Oh I LOVE the "IT WAS JUST A FEW PLAYS!" argument. Sure, 5 of Michigan's 6 touchdowns were greater than 40+ yards. If you take away 5 plays, M only had 10 points....

But why don't we take away OSU's 5 biggest plays?

1) in the second half, their ONLY FIRST DOWN before garbage time was a 40+ yard pass that setup their only points of the second half - a FG

2) In the first half, their last TD of the game was a 40+ yard pass

Bro in TWO PLAYS I just took down OSU to 13 points. And we know they didn't have any longer plays in the 2nd half until they were already down 2 TDs, because again THEY DIDN'T HAVE A FIRST DOWN other than that one. I kinda think if you get only one first down in the second half, you can't really argue it was "just a few plays." You got dominated. Plain and simple.

but for the heck of it, let's see what their 3 next longest plays were:

3) a 24 yard run on the first play after the first Cornelius Johnson TD. This drive ended with a long 47-yd FG 

4) a 19-yd pass on 3rd and 1 on their opening drive...Ryan Day probly goes for it on the +44, but

5-T) On that same drive they had an 18 yard pass on 1st and 15 before play #4. 

5-T) On the FG drive mentioned above, they followed up the 24 yard run with an 18 yard pass

I think it's fair to say after 2 plays, OSU only gets 13 points. After the 3rd, it's very shaky on whether they get past 10. The 4th makes their other TD a 50/50 prospect, and the 5th play either completely nukes the FG drive or the TD drive. I'll be charitable, give them the TD and nuke the FG drive. And all of a sudden, OSU scored 10 points without their 5 best plays. same as M. So, the difference in the game was "just a few plays." It was 10 plays. and 23 points. And the fact their offense got muzzled in the second half, right when their defense was unable to get off the field.

Our seasons were pretty even other than that game - but we were clearly the better team IN OHIO. They may have had more stars, they may end up with the higher draft picks. But we were indisputably the better team. And as that game was part of the season - yea, we had the better season too.

Amazinblu

April 25th, 2023 at 1:45 PM ^

It's pretty clear to me, OSU was clearly the better team.  They only failed to outscore Michigan - and, the score 45-23, wasn't indicative of how close the game actually was.

Just think, IF Michigan failed to make any first downs.  OR, if Michigan failed to score at all - the final score might have been 23-0.

But, neither of those happened, and Michigan won solidly.

Go Blue!

evenyoubrutus

April 25th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^

*sigh* how many games has Michigan lost to OSU when we could have said the same thing? 2017? By your logic even 2018? 2007? 2004? I'm sure there are many others if I felt like spending any more time thinking about it.

Steve Breaston…

April 25th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^

This might be the most MGoBlog post of all time. We won the game, on the road, in decisive fashion, yet we need to go back and ask if we were really as good as we were. 

What is going on here? 

Seth

April 25th, 2023 at 2:45 PM ^

Dude.

I know Seth, for instance, predicted another Michigan walloping, but I assumed (and continue to believe today) that he was ... spitting into the wind. Wishing it into being. Not because he honestly believed we would beat the Buckeyes by 20 in the Horseshoe.

I didn't "wish it into being" nor was I "spitting into the wind." I literally guaranteed a victory. Go to 2:04:49 on the tape:

I don't fucking lie to the readers, man. I said we were going to win because we were going to win.

My reasons were good scouting. Ohio State didn't have the cornerbacks to play like Illinois nor the DTs to play like Georgia. I suggested if they tried to repeat what the Illini would do they'd get ripped to shreds by all the things Michigan saved for them. I thought it would be a high-scoring game however because I worried that Michigan couldn't get enough pass rush to hold up, but also that Michigan was planning for that all season and had spent all year practicing the kind of defense that beats what Ohio State wants to do.

Ohio State is good at using the offseason to make themselves look like unassailable giants. They're not.

DennisFranklinDaMan

April 25th, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^

Guys, we beat them. Handily. In Columbus. I'm not challenging that we were the better team that Saturday in November. Obviously we were. For any number of reasons. 

Christ, the vitriol and personal attacks on comment boards always shocks me.

Kalamablue

April 25th, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^

Dude, you posted on mgoblog wondering if Michigan was the better team or not when we roundly beat them in Columbus. Maybe this topic can live somewhere in a more scientific environment but dumb post is dumb. 

Edit: this post is like going to a forum called "my farts are the best" and then asking someone who won a fart contest that perhaps their fart was not really the best. 

Chris S

April 25th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^

I actually really like this post. So I'd throw a question back at you... if we played them 10 times (5 home, 5 away), how many do you think we'd win?

I think we'd split. and that is probably the best you can hope for realistically against a team like Ohio State or Alabama (and probably the best they could hope for against us).

I think the game last year was less convincing of a win than the 2021 Game, and I think our biased fanbrains can read too much into the effects of 5 bigtime plays - which were out of character for us last year and had a lot to do with busts. But it was great nonetheless. I think with Corum healthy that bumps us up to 6 wins out of 10, though.

nowicki2005

April 25th, 2023 at 7:04 PM ^

I will say this...Michigan builds their team to best OSU. OSU builds their team to win a national championship. With that said, sometimes those goals overlap and sometimes they don't. For example, in a track meet with TCU, I'm pretty sure OSU would have scored on every possession they had. in a head to head with Michigan though, Ironically a blend of each team together would be the perfect team