Early Vegas line: UM -4
Early line looks like UM -4:
https://twitter.com/CircaSports/status/1452337588606365696/photo/1
Feels a bit high to me. Prediction: Before kick-off on gameday the line is UM -2 at practically every casino.
#GoBlue
October 24th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
Probably about right, maybe -3.0.
October 24th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
Win the game.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:00 PM ^
I would like to invoke Al Davis' lesser known quote "just cover baby"
October 24th, 2021 at 3:47 PM ^
Seems close to right Indiana was +4 against State last week although that game was at Indiana.
October 24th, 2021 at 3:47 PM ^
Too high. It should be no more than 2 at most.
October 24th, 2021 at 3:48 PM ^
Feels a bit high to me too. Guessing it moves to 3 or 2 as well. Hope they are right, though any Michigan win next Saturday will be much appreciated and savored in my house. Very big game.
October 24th, 2021 at 3:48 PM ^
I think we'll cover it but I agree with the OP that the line will move against us so betting that we'll cover it can wait.
October 24th, 2021 at 3:50 PM ^
I bet State fans will bet that line big. It’ll definitely move. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them as the favorites by game time.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:53 PM ^
Millions of dollars have to bet to move a line. There aren't that many State fans with money.
October 24th, 2021 at 7:14 PM ^
You don't have to be an MSU fan to bet the spread lmao
October 24th, 2021 at 3:54 PM ^
It was at M -2 at DraftKings yesterday...I'll have to check today
EDITED: Yep, M -4 right now at DK. Not really a surprise -- Michigan money moving the line.
October 24th, 2021 at 3:56 PM ^
Draftkings had an early line last week that opened at -2.5. Looks like NW only bumped it in our favor.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:06 PM ^
JJ starting? Just kidding folks; I’ll table my historically bad football knowledge for coaches who know more than any of us.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:07 PM ^
It opened at -2.5 on multiple books, so you’re kind of already right.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^
Obvious disrespek
October 24th, 2021 at 4:12 PM ^
Ugh. Wish Michigan was the underdog. This will add even more fuel to the MSU disrespek.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:24 PM ^
Michigan 31-20
Corum/Haskins each 22 carries 121 yards and 2 TDS
October 24th, 2021 at 4:26 PM ^
Michigan knows what's on the line. This isn't last season where you could tell Michigan read the press clippings and expected an easy win and meanwhile MSU was sufficiently motivated. This is a focused team and... they want to bring Paul Bunyan home. I don't think either team needs any additional motivation.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:31 PM ^
Line is set to encourage betting on MSU. Will probably drop under a FG, then more money will come in on Michigan to balance it all out.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:32 PM ^
Is Zinter going to be back? Good to see Roman Wilson yesterday. Hopefully they're full strength on Saturday.
The line is due to Mel Tucker's wife being spotted in Louisiana with a real estate agent
October 24th, 2021 at 4:48 PM ^
Very surprising. I was thinking UM -1.5 or so given the recent history of the rivalry and the fact that MSU is at home. Ah well. A win here might be the most impressive one yet in the Harbaugh era. Even better than Wisconsin earlier this year.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
Guys like Hutchinson are saying they haven't proved anything yet. This will be the time go out there and show the world that they have done something and proved something. They remain focused and on a mission.
October 24th, 2021 at 4:50 PM ^
No key injuries to either team at this point. The betting line likely will shrink a bit. The betting line was very good when Michigan played Nebraska, our guys did win by 3 points.
Good luck and GO BLUE!!
October 24th, 2021 at 5:39 PM ^
How quickly you’ve moved on from Ronnie Bell.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:10 PM ^
Take Reed out of their lineup and see what the line would be for this one, or for that matter, how their season would look at this point.
Line is already down to 3.5
October 24th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
"Feels a bit too high to me".
The books starting M at -4 really means implied odds of M -7 (assuming a 3 point home advantage for Sparty automatically applied by the oddsmakers).
It looks to me like the books aren't buyers on Sparty.
October 24th, 2021 at 7:02 PM ^
MSU is #6 against the spread this year, if that says anything….but Michigan is #3.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:30 PM ^
I am not a sports gambler, so I have a betting question: When you make a bet at a certain line, and the line later moves, do you get the new line or are you stuck with the old line?
If you don't get the new line, why would anyone bet early and not just wait to see what the line is at the last possible moment?
October 24th, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
Your bet is the one you made, if the line moves you can make another bet. People certainly bet early which is why things like the next year’s super bowl lines come out right after the game is over.
however, if you bet early you take chances of not having up to date information that could be critical.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
You get the line you bet on. Nobody knows where the line is going to move.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:45 PM ^
Stuck. The line moves so the books can hedge their risk. You bet early to lock in a spread you think is favorable to what you think the outcome will be be. You can also bet early to allow yourself the opportunity to hedge or closer to the game if the line makes a big move.
October 24th, 2021 at 6:52 PM ^
You get the line that is in effect when you place your bet.
If you wait, the line may move against you or for you. So it's up to your judgement.
Horse racing is different -- you place your bet and get the final odds.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:46 PM ^
Your bet is locked at the line you bet.
October 24th, 2021 at 10:56 PM ^
At Bovada you can often cash out your bet any time before the game starts typically for the same amount that you wagered. So if you took Michigan -4 early on and the line moved to -2 a few days later you can cash out your -4 and put the money on -2. They implemented this a couple years ago. I rarely use it though because I typically don't bet a line unless I am confident in it. If the line moved more in my favor I will usually just dump more money on the new line. The instances where I will use it is if something major happens to key players, such as injuries during the time leading up to the game.
October 24th, 2021 at 5:33 PM ^
It'll definitely come down. The early money will be on Sparty
October 24th, 2021 at 7:22 PM ^
27-17 Good Guys
October 24th, 2021 at 7:26 PM ^
Michigan will cover and win by 2 tds plus
October 24th, 2021 at 7:57 PM ^
I could see that. It would take an awful lot of sharp money to make the line move that much. If it gets down to 3 I’ll throw a decent amount on M!
October 24th, 2021 at 8:14 PM ^
All I know is that this is good for my emotional hedge bet on MSU. At least if we lose I'll get a nice dinner out.
October 24th, 2021 at 9:26 PM ^
User name does not check out
October 24th, 2021 at 9:57 PM ^
lol, we all have our coping mechanisms
October 24th, 2021 at 8:23 PM ^
Annual reminder that betting lines have nothing to do with who they think will win. They are about evening up the bets for the two teams.
October 25th, 2021 at 3:31 AM ^
I’ve heard this is a slight misconception actually. While the books may want this in an ideal universe, they rarely actually achieve it and are happy to have a higher amount of bets come in on what they view as the "wrong" side of the bet. The more conservative the book, however, the closer to 50/50 split they may want to get--it all depends on the oddsmaker at each book.
Also, as some have mentioned in this thread, the early lines were Michigan -2 or -2.5, and the line has moved towards Michigan. Generally the early lines for football (more than a week out) are meant to allow the books to hone their lines. Sharps betting on an early line give the oddsmakers more information in order to determine the "true odds" for a game. Then a line will move less closer to gametime, barring a huge event like a major injury, coach out, etc.
James Holzhauer of Jeopardy fame, who happens to also be a pro sports gambler, has written about this some here although it’s behind a paywall.
All this is to say that the early line may have moved more in Michigan's favor because the sharps see Michigan winning. Which I suppose aligns with a lot of the advanced models, so not really surprising here.
October 24th, 2021 at 8:24 PM ^
What I find ironic - slap less Spar-tee saying we have beat no one and should not be ranked #6. Who have they beat to be ranked right behind us?
Diamond Dave says - “Nobody!”
October 24th, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^
State is 2nd to last in total Defense in the Big. Its gonna be the difference in this game.
Also, Michigan is 4th in the power index while state is 14th. Many of States players haven't played together for a season. How many more reasons do we need to realize that you need to like the over on these odds?
October 25th, 2021 at 7:04 AM ^
Sparty plays a "bend don't break" defense. They have given up a lot of yards this season. However they have held opponents to a lot of FG's vs TD's. Total defense doesn't tell the whole picture sadly. Even when it comes to the secondary. You have to look at the total amount of passes throw against them and what offenses they have played. With that said...Sparty has a good defense. Right now we have a better one. My biggest concern is their WR's vs our CB's. Dax will be able to shut down Reed or Nailor. But he can't shut them both down at the same time.
October 25th, 2021 at 8:58 AM ^
Football outsiders has States passing down sack rate ranked at 97th while Michigan is at 8th.
However the standard down sack rate is up there just behind ours. I think this stat equivalence is due the heavy run threat posed by both teams.
Defensive pressure is going to be key on Saturday. Im sure Walker will get yards but Hutch and company are going to need to eat up the edges.
The larger metric however, is the hurry rate. Our guys don't get the sacks stats they deserve possibly because the holding allowed by refs. But the hurry ups on Saturday were key to killing the NW passes, especially later in the game.
I expect coach Mac will have some schemes planned for Sparty.
October 25th, 2021 at 7:04 AM ^
Sparty plays a "bend don't break" defense. They have given up a lot of yards this season. However they have held opponents to a lot of FG's vs TD's. Total defense doesn't tell the whole picture sadly. Even when it comes to the secondary. You have to look at the total amount of passes throw against them and what offenses they have played. With that said...Sparty has a good defense. Right now we have a better one. My biggest concern is their WR's vs our CB's. Dax will be able to shut down Reed or Nailor. But he can't shut them both down at the same time.
October 24th, 2021 at 9:33 PM ^
Vegas lines are not about predicting the score of the game. They are about predicting what will attract an equal amount of dollars on both sides. If the line moves, it is because one side is attracting more dollars bet than the other, contrary to the initial odds.
October 25th, 2021 at 7:17 AM ^
I'm an eternal pessimist when it comes to sports but I believe UM will win soundly. But, please, don't mix up "soundly" with "easily". UM won in Madison soundly but we were all at the edge of our seats and that was a slugfest. However, during much of that game it just felt like UM was the stronger team.
I don't know how this season will finish but I just believe UM has the talent, and some veterans that are going to bring them a win in e.l.