Discussing some Michigan basketball hypotheticals brought up in this week's MGoPodcast
There were 2 interesting basketball topics brought up in this week's podcast that I thought may be interesting to discuss on the board:
1) Let's say that Joshua Christopher commits and signs, Isaiah Todd doesn't go overseas, Livers comes back, and Davis and Nunez transfer. Given that, how do people see the minutes distributions going next year? On paper, we have probably ~12 guys who deserve to be getting minutes
2) If you had a magic wand right now and had the ability make it so Beilein never left Michigan would you do so? For the sake of this argument, let's assume that Beilein brought in a 2019 recruiting class of Bajema, Jalen Wilson, and Franz Wagner and currently has a 2020 class of Zeb Jackson, Walker Kessler, Jabri Abdur Rahim, and Scooby Johnson
January 6th, 2020 at 4:38 PM ^
Never assume.
January 6th, 2020 at 4:38 PM ^
1) I think you'll see more transfers if that's the case and we bring in 6 guys, personally. Brooks probably gets squeezed off the court, DDJ take over at point and Livers and Wagner get lead minutes at the 3/4. Beyond that the rest of the current roster would be in fight with the incoming guys. Will Castleton play over Dickinson? Will Johns see the court with his confidence issues? Is Bajema physically ready?
2) Meh - would have been happy with Coach B and whatever roster he put together, he earned that. Still happy with Howard and excited for the future. Ask again in two years if Howard's pulling in classes like this year over year and we're making it to the Elite 8 every year.
January 6th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
2. I was the biggest John Beilein supporter and I still love the guy despotism leaving. I still root for him in the nba. However, given how old he was realistically he wasn’t gonna coach at Michigan for more than 3-5 years. The end of his career was approaching and his recruiting classes have never been stellar although he’s always outperformed with the athletes he had. Juwan Howard is winning with the players Beilein left us as well as brought in the top recruiting class in the big ten for 2020. So no I would not trade Beilein staying at this point because it was inevitable that his career was ending and Juwan Howard was the best case scenario for us. So far in recruiting he’s out preformed my expectations at this point. All Juwan has to do is win 12 games in the big ten and make it to the NCAA tourney and my expectations for this season are met
January 6th, 2020 at 4:59 PM ^
While Beilein could be a bit of a control freak, I don't know if I'd call him a despot.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:02 PM ^
A nepotist, maybe, but definitely not a despot.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:40 PM ^
Should have said despite ?
January 6th, 2020 at 9:57 PM ^
Despite his despotic nepotism, I hope he is soon emancipated from the destructive duo that is Love and Sex(ton).
January 7th, 2020 at 9:26 AM ^
I love my Neti Pot and so does my cat.
January 6th, 2020 at 6:50 PM ^
The only problem is if Howard does really well I don't see him staying more than 5 years himself. I don't think he's looking to go ASAP or he wouldn't have taken the job, but I don't see him at Michigan long-term.
January 6th, 2020 at 7:38 PM ^
While you’re probably right, not necessarily. He is very much a teacher type. He may not want to do NBA. Who knows?
January 7th, 2020 at 10:05 AM ^
also, if Howard continues to recruit well, and Michigan becomes a "destination" for 5 * kids, might be easier to attract a better coach. If you see Beilein and respect how great of a coach he was, but realize there's a potential ceiling on the talent that even a great coach like him could bring in, might give you pause. But Howard is showing that Michigan is a hell of a draw with a different approach.
January 6th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
On #2, I will always love John Beilein, but if Juwan can keep recruiting like he has so far this year (even if Todd goes overseas) then I think I’d take Juwan as strange as that sounds. Not only that, but he spent a decade plus with maybe the smartest organization in the league and seems to have a general idea how to coach.
January 6th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^
1. Joshua Christopher is not coming most likely but say he does and all the other scenarios pan out we will lose 2 players to transfers that’s inevitable. I would have said livers to the nba as well but at this point it’s way too early and he hasn’t done much but there is time for him to shine.
2020-2021 lineup
DDJ/Brooks
Christopher/Jackson/bajema
Wagner/williams
todd/livers/johns
dickenson/castleton
This is just a mock-up of how the lineup might be managed but you can rearrange these in a many ways really
nunez and Davis transfer
January 6th, 2020 at 7:28 PM ^
Todd would start at 5 for me. No way livers isn’t starting as a senior
I’d go
Ddj Christopher Wagner livers todd ~ all playing close to 25-30 mpg
January 6th, 2020 at 4:50 PM ^
Beilein was kind of checked out last year. That was a really talented team that should have hung some kind of banner.
If I was offered 2009-2017 Beilein for 5 more years v. Juwan I would have stuck with JB. There are a lot of questions with Howard. NBA suitors will be calling as early as this off season.
January 6th, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^
Checked out? He was one win away from a Big Ten regular season title, 3rd consecutive Big Ten Tournament title, and made it to the Sweet 16 bowing out against the eventual second place team.
January 6th, 2020 at 4:56 PM ^
Yes. Checked out. He got out coached by Izzo 3 times to lose the BIG, twice. Our offense also found a way to be terrible with two pro scorers and a third in Livers. Love the man. Favorite coach of all time but last year wasn’t his finest work.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:01 PM ^
In the Big Ten championship game, our offense got Simpson wide open in the corner for a winning three - and it missed. Can't really put that on the coach.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:03 PM ^
We went to Simpson for a 3 to win the game and you are saying this in defense of the coach?
We were up 12 on MSU with ten left in the game. No chance we should have lost that game. I am quite certain he would agree.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:09 PM ^
Nah. Outcoached?! There's only so much he could've done with that roster and matchup against Sparty, when shots weren't falling. What did you want him to do with the limitations of Zavier and bullshit fouls we get called for against those assholes?!
January 6th, 2020 at 5:10 PM ^
If you want to argue that Izzo got the best of him, OK, but Beilein went 30-4 against everyone else. Kind of hard to call that "checked out." We weren't that talented.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:17 PM ^
I did not see the same level of innovation and in-game adjustments from Beilein last year. His flat refusal to post Teske was baffling. Poole was utilized very poorly.
I don’t know what to say. I’m not arguing that he wasn’t a great coach. Like I said, I think he is the best coach Michigan has had in either major sports since I have been alive. I think he was kind of checked out last year. Leaving for the f-ing Cavs would seem to indicate it is a strong possibility.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^
Thoughts on last year aside, do you mean 2009-2018 Beilein? M went to the national title game in 2018. I think Michigan only lost like 4 games the entire calendar year of 2018.
January 6th, 2020 at 6:05 PM ^
Yes. I was thinking of the wrong calendar year in my head. I think he checked out when he almost got the Pistons job after the NCG against Nova. He did not seem to have to the same passion last year. He appeared bored and restless to me, and his in game coaching seemed lackluster, comparably to previous years.
January 6th, 2020 at 7:02 PM ^
I don't necessarily disagree. It was disappointing with that team to not get a banner of some sort. BUT, they were unlucky not to have beaten MSU in the big ten title game, and they ran into a buzzsaw in Texas Tech.
He got one of his few technicals ever last year (was it at PSU? or maybe also at Iowa?) so I wouldn't call it entirely bored or passionless, per se. I personally got the impression that Poole and Iggy were tough players to coach and he got exasperated with them which probably sapped some of his energy (and ultimately some of his willingness to stay at the college level).
January 6th, 2020 at 6:55 PM ^
A week or 2 ago ijohnb was talking about how terrible the takes are on the basketball podcasts here...
January 6th, 2020 at 7:13 PM ^
They are, in large part.
January 6th, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^
Since this appears to be a hot take thread.....
If everything you said comes to fruition, *at this moment in time* I'd prefer that Austin Davis stay and Castleton transfer out. I think Castleton still has a high ceiling, but he's not athletic enough or good enough shooter to play the stretch 4, and he's been getting bullied when he plays the 5. I'll take Davis' physicality and motor over his all day at the 5 at the expense of some athleticism. I'm not sure Castleton will see much time next year if Davis is back and they add Todd to the other signees.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:27 PM ^
Is this really a hot takes thread? I don't think Christopher, Todd, and Livers all being on the team next year is that un-realisitc given Livers' injury, what has been said about Todd (I'm 70-30 on him coming to Michigan), and the recent buzz around Christopher
January 6th, 2020 at 7:39 PM ^
Maybe a lukewarm takes thread?
1) Assuming these 5 independent things all happen......
2) If you had a magic wand.....
I don't disagree that there's a decent chance all 3 of those guys are here next year, not sure about the 2 transfers though.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:32 PM ^
Agreed.
January 6th, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^
1). It seems Juwan will play whomever is deserving, so the minutes will work themselves out. Good problem to have if you ask me.
2). I’ll take top players over scheme any day of the week. It’s truly amazing how many wins Coach B had over more talented teams, but it’s not a sustainable model to overachieve like he did. Also proves that you just gotta be hot at the right time. How many times did we have to see the team throw the ball around, instead of having at least one guy who could create their own shot in critical moments. (Trey Burke being the exception). That seems to be an issue this year as well. We’ll see though. I’m excited to see how this season and the future pans out.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:17 PM ^
Top players vs Scheme is a really good question honestly. My opinion is that for year to year consistency, scheme is actually the better fit. For teams that don't hoard 5 star one and dones, Villanova, Virginia and Beilein's Michigan are the blueprint for success. Every year they make it through with unspectacular guys, and are consistently in mix. The bluebloods are particularly affected by how good the incoming HS crop is and essentially need to rebuild their team year after year (Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina), and if the NBA lets HS kids jump straight to the pros again, that gets even harder.
That being said, Juwan's coaching skills have looked really solid thus far, so it's possible we have the best of both worlds: getting top players while having good scheme under his tenure. Love Beilein, but right now I wouldn't tradeback, since Juwan might be the total package.
January 6th, 2020 at 7:06 PM ^
I think the ideal is what Matt Painter does. Get the best players possible and sometimes have great talent, but always be adjusting to put the talent you do have in the best position to win.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:29 PM ^
You need a mix of both. And Howard isn't recruiting at the level where scheme isn't the most important factor.
The floor is higher with the new type of recruits, but by no means is the ceiling guaranteed to be as high as what we got with Beilein. And we also don't know if Howard's talent evaluation is near the level of Beilein. Howard hasn't really given off a vibe of being particularly picky this cycle.
I have all my faith in Juwan to be able to get it done, but it's just faith at this moment. There are still a lot of question marks, even with an upgrade in recruiting (namely Todd).
January 6th, 2020 at 4:54 PM ^
How about the inverse question, does Beilein wish he hadn't left? At this point I am guessing yes, although he would never admit it.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:02 PM ^
Part of him, probably. But the other part may be glad he at least gave the NBA a shot.
January 6th, 2020 at 4:58 PM ^
1. Quite the roster conundrum if Christopher commits and Todd stays true to this word. We'll have a great crop of youngsters pushing current roster members. Things will sort themselves out, but I envision a lot of roster tinkering early in the season.
2. I was extremely excited about the prospects of bringing in a Zeb, Kessler, Rahim, and Johnson class under JB next year, plus Jalen Wilson this year. It was honestly my first panic-stricken thought when I found out JB went to Cleveland and how our program would probably endure a lost recruiting year and a painful coaching transition with depleted incoming talent next year. But I am thrilled by the work Howard is doing on the recruiting trail, so I'm not looking back. I'm not waving any magic wands.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:29 PM ^
I'm pretty sure Beilein had stopped recruiting Scooby Johnson. He probably would have signed someone he thought was better.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:02 PM ^
1) There's zero (0) chance we wouldn't experience attrition in this scenario. THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM OF GEN Y....but kids are transferring in search of playing time now. As others have said, I don't think Cristopher lands here anyway.
2) I was ok with Beilein staying but we were all starting to get the impression that a natty wasn't going to happen because 5 stars always signed elsewhere. It was ok because the program was clean and maybe we could luck into something. Regardless, I'm also willing to give Juwan a shot with a fully weaponized roster.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:05 PM ^
THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM OF GEN Y....but kids are transferring in search of playing time now.
They also transferred in search of playing time in the past, too. Steve Fisher's teams had a bunch of transfers.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:13 PM ^
THIS IS NOT A CRITICISM OF GEN Y
and if it were, you'd be criticizing.. some tommy amaker teams?
January 6th, 2020 at 5:08 PM ^
If Belien hadnt left wed be discusiing our Final Four chan ces not if we wilkl eget the dreaded 8/9 seed
January 6th, 2020 at 5:49 PM ^
If Beilein hadn't left, we'd have 6 losses right now
January 6th, 2020 at 5:18 PM ^
If I could have the best coach we've ever had who was set up for an incredible run the next 2-3 years? Yeah give me that wand.
January 6th, 2020 at 5:22 PM ^
I just took all of the guys who are not graduating, added all possible commits, did a quick rank by approximate height, and split them into 5 groups:
- DDJ
- Brooks
- Jackson
- Christopher
- Nunez
- Wagner
- Williams
- Bajema
- Howard
- Livers
- Johns
- Todd
- Castleton
- Davis
- Dickinson
So, if Nunez and Davis transfer, then your positions look pretty well-defined with the exception that maybe Jackson spends more time at the 2.
I love John Beilein and I wish that he would have chosen to end his career at Michigan. However, as someone else pointed out, John Beilein isn't getting any younger and I think he had reached his ceiling. An OSU/Cavs fan was asking me how I felt about the whole thing and I told him that I thought that Beilein's offense was great for getting utility players into the position they needed to score. However, that became a hindrance with more talented players, which is why you saw the frustration out of Poole. Beilein also did not have it in him to compete for recruits at the highest level. He built a consistent top 25 program, but I think that the systems that Howard is running and his ability to recruit at the highest level will make Michigan a power house. I would not have hired Howard in 2007 and I would not have hired Beilein in 2019 just because they don't seem suited for those two types of talent levels.
January 6th, 2020 at 6:07 PM ^
Agree with most of this, but how do you see Wagner as a 2? I know that was a popular thought when he was first recruited, but I don't think he's clocked a single minute as a true 2 on this team and don't see it going forward. He is fairly solid 3 and if he deviates from that I would say it's more to a stretch 4 than a 2. To that end, on your groups above I would say he belongs with the 10-12 or even the 7-9 players more than where you have him right now.
January 6th, 2020 at 6:28 PM ^
Wagner at the 2 was a common pre-season theme among many basketball junkies. But that notion was predicated on Brooks and DDJ not taking steps forward. Both showed promising skill development early, notwithstanding Brooks' recent slide, thus rendering the Wagner at the 2 experiment moot. And maybe that was never a plausible scenario for Howard. But it's one worth revisiting if Brooks and DDJ are completely ineffective going forward (highly unlikely).
January 6th, 2020 at 6:56 PM ^
1) Franz is literally the tallest non C on the roster. If you play him at the 2 what does that even mean? He won't be the primary ball-handler and the opposing team is likely to put there 3 or 4 on him for defense. When he's on defense you could put him on the other team's 2 (See concern below) but that likely means you have DDJ / Brooks / Bajema / Livers guarding a larger player than the one Franz is guarding
2) You also are who you can guard and Franz is literally the tallest non-center on the team right now -- while I think he has the length (with some quickness) to guard most 2s -- guards with very high athleticism (think Edwards from UGA, Maxey from UK or Powell from Seton Hall) and you are going to have a big problem. There are almost no wings or stretch 4s which I would feel the same way about
3) Beyond the emergence of DDJ / Brooks, I don't think Wagner's handle is good enough to feel comfortable with extended minutes for him at the 2.
The only way Franz at the two makes sense would be some kind of enormous lineup but we don't really have the bodies to do it this year and even if you did it next year (Dickinson, Todd, Livers, Wagner, XX) -- Livers would most likely be involved and I would argue that he would be better to play the 2 then Franz
January 6th, 2020 at 8:10 PM ^
Like I said, I was going by approximate height. Some I looked up, some I did from memory because I was trying to do it quickly. I had Franz and Livers heights backwards. Regardless, the point of this was to show where people generally fit. If Nunez and Brooks transfer, that puts Jackson as backup at the 1, leaving room for a nominal 3 to slide into the 2. Who is that? Who knows? It doesn't really matter because this is all predicted on about 5 different things all happening. I was just trying to make the scenario a bit more understandable.