Dickinson-Wagner NBA discussion
We have touched on this topic a few times but as the season progresses what are the thoughts on Dickinson and/or Wagner leaving after the season?
Never in a million years would I have thought that Dickinson could potentially be a one and done and even a few games ago I still assumed he would level off at some point, but that may not be the case. If he averages 17 and 8 as a freshman does he take the leap? Can Juwan convince him to stay at least one more year to work on his outside game the NBA craves?
As for Franz, I don’t think he’s ready either but he’s always seemed like a guy that wasn’t going to stay 4 years. What does the board think? With those 2 guys back, next year could be a very special team.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
Before Wagner arrived at Michigan, I saw him as a 2 or 3 year player with the latter being more likely. I'm sticking with my 3 year prediction.
Before Dickinson arrived, I saw him as a 3 or 4 year player (which is partially why I wanted him way more than Walker Kessler). Now I think we'll be lucky to get 3 seasons from him. I think 2 is more likely than 3.
FYI: Hunter has a 3 point shot. (He showed it a number of times in HS.) Right now, he's just focusing on what he does best -- dominating in the post. Recently, he started showing his mid-range game. He'll eventually showcase his perimeter game when he becomes more comfortable out there.
That said, I won't let the NBA (which looms large every off-season) distract me from enjoying this team.
I love this team. It *feels* like a a special team. The vibes from this team are awesome.
ETA: I know some will see Wagner as a 1st round pick right now. However, I want to remind them that there is a substantial difference between being, say, the 7th pick versus the 23rd pick. (Both are great relatively speaking. But it's much better to be the 7th pick in the short-term and long-term.) See this link to understand why. (There's a simple chart.)
January 7th, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^
Is this a new rookie scale? I feel like this is far more pronounced (as it should be) from early first round to late first round than it used to be.
January 7th, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
Yes, this is the new rookie pay scale.
January 7th, 2021 at 3:27 PM ^
Ahhh, yeah, this could definitely change things. It used to be that getting into the first round for the guaranteed contract was the goal, wasn't a steep increase to get into the lottery or top 5. This is more in line with the actual value of picks and does increase the incentive to try to get from the back end of the first (or second) up to the lottery and higher.
This does increase the chances Dickinson comes back, IMO. But he probably lacks the athleticism to ever be a lottery pick so not sure how much he can increase his stock if comes back (yes, he can get better but there is an expected curve and if you don't improve along that curve, it actually hurts to get older in college if you're falling behind the expected curve).
January 7th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^
I would like to see them come back. Don’t have time to follow the NBA
January 7th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
Dickinson is too short this year!
/did I do that right?
January 7th, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
He's too slow, feet shaped funny, got tiny hands. Look away NBA scouts, nothing to see here.
January 7th, 2021 at 2:43 PM ^
I hope Camp Sanderson has a funny shaped feet and tiny hands course.
January 7th, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
But his pad level is too high.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
Franz is probably going 1st round this year.
I think (hope) Dickinson will stay.
January 7th, 2021 at 4:58 PM ^
The back to the basket center seems like a dying breed in the NBA. Maybe Dickinson will stay to develop move of a perimeter game. Good move for both sides.
January 7th, 2021 at 5:11 PM ^
Luka Garza is Dickinson++, and the NBA has no interest in him whatsoever.
Dickinson is a four-year player unless he gets awful draft advice, or the NBA game somehow regresses 30 years overnight.
January 7th, 2021 at 5:17 PM ^
Suuuuuch a terrible, HoT tAkE. Noting for posterity.
Garza is a worse defender and two years older than Dickinson (two big strikes to the NBA) but he'll still get drafted, probably in the first round, soooooo there's interest.
January 7th, 2021 at 9:24 PM ^
I haven’t seen a single 2021 Mock Draft with Garza anywhere near the 1st Round. Most of them don’t even have him listed in their 2nd Round, either
I don’t know how much NBA ball you watch, but slow, unathletic (relatively speaking) bigs are dinosaurs in the modern game.
January 7th, 2021 at 10:15 PM ^
Touche. Someone posted yesterday that he's being mocked in the late first round and I took their word for it without verifying. My bad.
I bet he'll go in the second round though. While I agree there isn't high demand for slow, unathletic bigs, they still exist is sizable numbers because the "ideal" NBA big is scarce (Zeller, Plumlee, Sabonis, Gortat, there are lots of them and these guys aren't nearly as skilled as Garza).
Garza likely won't last, but he'll get a chance to test whether his offense can be leveraged and defense can be hidden.
January 8th, 2021 at 9:21 AM ^
I’d agree with this—both Garza & Dickinson could totally have NBA futures as matchup-dependent scoring bigs on a second unit. I just don’t know if that’s worth an early entry. Garza decided it wasn’t.
January 7th, 2021 at 5:17 PM ^
As a freshman, Dickenson already plays better defense than Garza, he also finishes better. Garza is a great offensive player and a great college player, But Dickenson has higher upside-IMO.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:23 PM ^
Someone with more knowledge of how the NBA works and what it looks for can feel free to correct me, but isn't the consensus on Dickinson that while he could be a very good NBA player, he's not what they're looking for in today's prototypical big man? My understanding is that they want someone more athletic who can defend the perimeter and do his part in knocking down threes.
If that's true, Dickinson seems like a guy who would've been a lottery pick 20-30 years ago, but may be a guy today that they still place a first round pick on, but not a lottery pick. But again, someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
That sounds right, but how will his stock rise enough to make coming back worth it? Is he really going to go from no three point shot to 40% three point shooter in one year? If he's going to work on improving his game he can do it as a pro while getting paid.
If he comes back it's because he likes being at Michigan. If he wants to go pro he will get drafted.
January 7th, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
Yep, this is spot on. Him being more in the traditional center mold may actually hurt us in terms of the stay / go thought process. He's already shown he's more than capable of doing all the things a traditional big does, and he's already 21 which is considered "sorta old" in the NBA draft. The only reason he would come back is to work on his outside game, which honestly might not move the needle that much anyway.
If I were him, I'd be gone after this season. Give the NBA a shot, start the rookie scale contract clock earlier, and come back to UM when the NBA career is over.
January 7th, 2021 at 3:30 PM ^
He just turned 20 barely a month ago. No need to through crap against the wall to strengthen your point.
January 7th, 2021 at 3:53 PM ^
For some reason I had 21 in my mind, my mistake.
January 7th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
This is exactly spot on.
And to add a couple thing: he apparently is already a pretty good three point shooter, he's just more efficient in college in the post when he's scoring literally at will (we'll probably see him step out when Michigan plays some better rim protectors that they want to draw away from the basket).
Shooting won't be something that keeps the NBA away. He's a good FT shooter and skilled player. That's enough for them to bet on him being a good enough three point shooter.
What might keep him to a second round pick is his athleticism but that's def not changing. So it will come down to whether he wants to play another year in college or not.
January 7th, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
Tim McCormick cited that logic for why Hunter is likely to be a 3-4 year player but that was a few weeks ago. I'm hoping he wants a normal-ish year of Camp Sanderson and outside shot improvement to raise his stock so he comes back.
One and done is still possible for a ton of reasons: Production and improvement still matter; he's a year older and there's a ceiling to how high he might be drafted which limits upside to coming back; it's a personal decision; various draft dynamics (plenty of examples of 2nd rounders who stick making more money more quickly than mid-late first rounders). Jury is still out a bit on defense but he's been better than expected there, too.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:23 PM ^
I'm not seeing either in many mocks just yet. Sure, that could change as the season rolls on, especially with a special tourney run, but how much? I think Franz has been awesome with intangibles, but the NBA might need to see a stretch of red hot outside shooting. As for Hunter, he may resemble last year's Garza - a dominating player that plays ball from the wrong era for the league. We'll see how Garza's improved outside shooting impacts his stock.
Possibly the greater question: if neither go, will there be some necessary "roster management" from a scholarship perspective?
January 7th, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^
"Jace, you're a walk on again."
January 7th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Adrien we'd like you to pursue your passions and join the Michigan Basketball social media team but there's a catch....
January 7th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Garza is older (seen as having less upside) and is a worse defender even though he's older so there's really no comparison there.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^
Seems like trying to predict either of them is a total crapshoot. Franz's game seems like a much better fit for the NBA, but he hasn't been completely dominant.
Dickinson has been dominant but doesn't seem like as great a fit. But if he can keep this up, who knows?
January 7th, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^
I am sure Juwan will help them make the right decision for them and for their long-term careers. Also, this is already looking like a very special team.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:25 PM ^
There's a very real possibility we lose all 5 starters isn't there??
Livers and Brooks are seniors
Smith is a grad transfer so he's out of eligibility too
Wagner and Dickinson could easily leave for the Draft
January 7th, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
Gotta remember this is a "free year" of eligibility. So everyone technically could come back.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:36 PM ^
So obviously Livers, Wagner and Dickinson are draft issues.
Do we think Brooks and/or Smith would return under the "Free Year" provision? Do we have room?
January 7th, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^
I don't think any SRs that use the extra year count against the scholarship cap - for next year only -so they could stay (as could Livers, Brown, and Davis fwiw.)
This does not change the current 2021 scholarship cap issue for Michigan. M needs 1 underclassman to leave - or Jace to revert to walk-on (if allowed) just to fit the incoming 6 players and obviously 1 or more further to leave to add another 1-2 Frosh (big?) or Transfer (guard?).
The biggest issue (noted above) would be finding minutes to keep everyone happy if several of the Srs stay on - M can handle the cost of the extra scholarships.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
Isn't this a covid year so everyone can redshirt? Not sure how good Frankie Collins is going to be next year (he looks like a really good prospect), but we already know what Mike Smith is and I'd love to see him get another year.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:26 PM ^
I think as good as HD is, he needs at least another year of high level college ball before he's ready for the NBA. He's great, but not very athletic, not great outside shooting, and to me at least his help defense needs a little work. He's great defending the paint though, and overall I'm super impressed with his play, and demeanor.
January 7th, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^
His athleticism won't improve with another year of college ball, so that's irrelevant to NBA teams. They actually prefer younger guys to get them into professional training programs.
We don't know if he's not a great outside shooter and the NBA has no problem projecting that either. He's a good FT shooter, they know he can become a good outside shooter with relatively high probably (there are no sure things because there's a mental aspect - see Nik Stauskas).
January 7th, 2021 at 1:31 PM ^
Wagner is 100% ready. He will go and he should.
Dickinson may come back, but I doubt it. He's a 20 year old freshmen.
January 7th, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
He projects as Enes Kanter type or if he really picks up his shooting a Brook Lopez type. I haven't seen him catch a lop yet so that's a red flag for the NBA where vertical spacing is very important. Can he defend the pick an roll good enough to be a starter in the NBA? There's a reason Kanter is a backup and gets flamed every year in the playoffs. So if he can become agile enough to defend the pick and roll he would project as an NBA starter. If not, a second rounder and a scoring big off the bench. It's just a different game in the NBA.
January 7th, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
He has more blocks a single game than Kanter has had his entire career.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^
That’s it. I’m changing my last name, having another son whose name shall be: Dickinson Wagner
January 7th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
Franz is gone, too early to say on Hunter but I’m sure he would get drafted if he took that route.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
Wagner I think is gone unless he gets injured or his game falls apart.
I go back and forth with HD. Hard to see him more than a good backup C in the NBA unless athleticism improves. Obviously offensive game looks good and still has room for growth. But defensively, it'll be tough for him to play long stretches of time as the ball screen offenses are much more effective at the next level. So i don't know if his stock will ever be better than it is this year. Feel like he either leaves this year or stays through at least his junior year.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
They both have in curable but asymptomatic diseases. If Franz leaves before the end of the 2023 season, or hunter before the end of the 2025 season, both will explode. Therefore, you have no worries that they will go to the NBA.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
If Franz plays like he has so far in B1G play the rest of the season, he's gone. Easy first round pick.
Hunter is a lot better than I expected (captain obvious), but especially on defense. He's not a star by any means, and has very clear limitations, but he is more mobile than I expected. Basically he's more average than he is Garza which is massive for him.
I still don't think he's going to be of massive interest to the NBA for the same reasons Garza isn't, especially since he hasn't shown a 3 point shot like Garza has. But he's also an old freshman. If he continues to be this good, he may go to the draft because he's older and and probably won't up his stock too much more in college. But he could also come back, try and add a consistent 3 pointer with some small defensive improvements and see if that gets him to the 1st round. Hope we get him back, but the longer he plays this well the less surprised I'd be to see him go.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:38 PM ^
If Franz can continue what he's been doing and continue his improved 3 point shooting in B1G play, then I think he's gone and probably a late first or early second rounder. A 6'10" wing who can put the ball on the floor, pass, and shoot is going to be appealing to the NBA.
I really don't know what is going to happen with Dickinson. On one hand, the NBA really doesn't care about centers like Dickinson anymore, but on the other hand, he's already 20, dominating the B1G, and I'm not sure where his heads at. He may want to stay for 4 years or he may be fine with jumping into the deep end and starting his career even if he goes as a second rounder or undrafted. It's hard to tell
January 7th, 2021 at 1:38 PM ^
Both are first-round picks right now. Don't kid yourself. I don't see Franz returning -- he's already been a pro, remember -- though Hunter may come back.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:38 PM ^
Franz is ready. He's a 1st Rd player right now, imo. Perfect 3 & D type Wing with potential to be even more than that. I know they list him at G, but he sortve reminds me of Andrei Kirilenko in some respects.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^
Can we just let the season play out, obviously people are bored, but still.
January 7th, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
i think wagner is ready, and gone.
i kinda think dickinson sticks for one more year...as great as he is so far, i'm still not sure he's mobile enough to be a great pro prospect. he may realize that another year of camp sanderson and an internship in the Juwan Howard Institute for Tall People makes him a superstar.