Dickinson-Wagner NBA discussion

Honestly it feel like the longer you stay in college the worst your draft status gets.  Livers is the modern day NBA 3 and D guy yet no one is talking about his NBA future.  I would love to see both of them back but if I was advising them I would say to leave and hope the NBA over drafts you based on potential. 

Franz has developed into the best two-way athlete on the team, and he's now 6'10". As much as I would like him to stay, I don't see him developing any more at UM, and seeing next year's recruiting class, he might have to compete harder for playing time. I think he's gone in the Spring.

Franz should be gone after this season. He has gotten better this season and his defense has improved tremendously with his new height from 6'7"-6'8" to 6'9"-6'10" which makes him an attractive candidate at combo forward spot.

Hunter is much trickier because he's largely a polished product and he likely isn't a 1st round pick because he isn't what NBA look for in a modern big. He's already old for a freshman so if his stock doesn't change next year regardless of his play, he may declare early. My bet is he'll come back because he'll be in a similar situation as Luka Garza. My guess is he'll be 2 and done.

My guess is Dickinson sticks around one more year because (a) he'll likely struggle a bit as the grind of the season hits him (as almost all freshmen bigs do) and (b) he'll want to show his entire skillset is NBA-ready.  But I also wouldn't be shocked if he kept this up and made the leap; he's 20 years old already so he probably doesn't want to age out of consideration.

Wagner feels like a guy who'll test the waters this summer and may well jump; he's shown a diverse set of skills and NBA teams undoubtedly can see his strengths while understanding that his weaknesses (lateral quickness, some concerns about ball-handling) that either aren't going to go away with another year in college or aren't disqualifying.  

I'd love to see them both come back but I'm sort of bracing for departures.

It's hard to imagine someone being as dominant in college as Hunter has been NOT going to the NBA. 

But, as well outlined in this thread, a lot of what makes him successful in college is not going to carry over. He's not a plus athlete. He hasn't demonstrated high-level 3-point shooting yet (people argue that he did in HS, but, well, that was HS. A 3 against the short, slow opponents of HS is in no way the same thing as draining a 3 when Anthony Davis is closing out). 

So he has some liabilities right where the NBA needs strengths.

BUT: He's dominant now. His passing is exceptional. He's 7'1. 

And his performance on the court alone tells teams that there's something there.

So, what probably happens: He submits his name for evaluation, a no-brainer decision. He gets evaluated. And maybe there are a couple of teams who are interested in the 20s, thinking they can flesh out his weaknesses. A team like Miami, which knows Juwan, might be the kind of team that sees him as a late-1st project.

And if he gets a pretty good idea that he can get picked up anywhere in the 1st round, he should go right away. Because, as we say, he has these liabilities, and you want to get taken before future seasons that could risk those liabilities being established as permanent. 

If not, bet on himself that he adds stuff to his game and come back.

Franz, I think, is gone. 

I think Franz is gone. To me he plays much better against tougher competition. This is my excuse for him on why he struggles early because the teams we play aren’t that good. I think this bodes well for him if they have a combine this year so he can show his skills.  For HD I think another year to develop or maybe show his perimeter game would help his chances. The NBA is tough for me to figure out since guys like Peyton Prichard, who everyone said wasn’t an NBA player, is getting solid minutes on a top team. All depends on the situation and team need but I think HD would be a great pro. 

One thing I've noticed about Wagner this season is how high above the rim he's often playing.  It's been impressive.

Correct me id I'm wrong but didn't hunters girlfriend commit to michigan and is at michigan playing a sport? Assuming by they're still together, that would be a huge draw for him. He is an NBA bench player who won't be able to get minutes in some situations because other teams will attack him too much defensively. 

On his current trajectory, I think by the end of the season Dickinson would easily get drafted at the tail end of the first round. Sure, the NBA likes more versatile stretch bigs these days and many (most?) teams will go with "greater upside" and project players who will never pan out. However, there will be at least one GM smart enough to grab a productive, low risk/low floor player. 

The question for Hunter is how high does he think he can go with another year in college. To raise his draft stock, he has two main potential areas where he needs to prove himself: Show he can defend athletic stretch fives at least passably on the perimeter and demonstrate an outside shot good enough to keep defenses honest.

Do one of the two and he's middle of the first round. Do both and he's well inside of the lottery. 

FFS, Just stop. Enjoy them on the team now. 

I don't think Wagner has the game right now to be more than second-rounder in the draft. If that's good enough, he will probably go this year. But I think he comes back for another year.

Dickinson has an NBA inside game right now, but I don't think that's enough in today's NBA. The question is will Hunter figure his 3-ball and defense is good enough this year to bolt and try to get drafted in the first round? I hope, hope, hope we get another year out of him, because two years would be the max he'd be around. I hope we get that second year.

I would be bummed out if Wagner leaves after this year. I would be devastated if Hunter does.

The NBA has zero interest in a giant center who cant run and jump and can't shoot the three. The only reason Hunter leaves is to go play in Europe.

Franz is gone unless his season falls apart or he just loves college.

Barring injury or sudden regression, it would be very surprising if Franz was not a 1st round pick this summer.  He projects as a three-level scorer who can be a secondary distributor.  He also projects as being capable to guard any of the 2-4 wing positions at an NBA level, and for defenses that like to switch a lot/everything, won’t get burned if he’s on a PG or center.  He probably doesn’t have have a ceiling of being a number one option on offense nor defense, which will keep him out of the top ten, but he checks pretty much the rest of the boxes to go in the 1st round, including his age.  I also don’t see much more room for his stock to go up.  He’s made a sophomore leap, and evaluators will rank him based on the assumption of further growth, so a junior leap is likely to have diminishing returns.  On top of all that, the 2022 draft looks to be better than 2021.  The only thing that could hold him back is if he has some poor athletic measurables at the combine.

Dickinson is tougher — he’s greatly exceeded expectations.  He’s old for a freshman, but is outplaying upper classmen as well as first-years.  Offensively it’s pretty clear he can be an elite NBA big.  Defensively the jury is very much out, which is tough for him as most NBA teams see center as a defense/first position.  I think he’d go in the 25-45 range, as some team will see if they can keep improving his defense and get a bargain, since his offense will obviously play immediately.  Still, I think he’ll get as good coaching from Howard as he would anyone in the NBA, and staying another year could propel him up the draft boards if there’s more growth on the defensive end.  On the other hand, if the defense doesn’t show, he could fall to the 40-undrafted range, so there’s risk with that reward.

Wagner put  his name in last year...so I say if he plays decent this year he will be gone! I say hunter will be gone next! One more year to improve his mid range shot and show his three point range! I think juwan will use Garza as a example even thou he stayed longer then his sophomore year!

2 years b4 declaring at this rate. Dude is making alot of us (me) look like fools doubtful he was BIG  dominant.

The Garza comparison is in play, and it looks like Dickinson will exceed.

Enjoy the rest of the season, as he is going to dominate the post.

Once he works the 3 point shot threat, he is gone.

Wagner is surely gone. But I think that Dickenson might be back. It all depends on whether there is an indication that he will appreciably improve his draft position with another year. On one hand, he might have had a great year and is a bit old for a freshman. It might be the best chance he would ever have at that time. On the other hand, his mid-range shooting and free throw shooting show good touch and consistency and there is a real chance he could become a good 3 point shooter and that might give him a better chance in the NBA. So... it, of course, depends on what things look like at the end of the year. 

If Luka Garza is predicted mid second round I don’t see how Hunter takes off after this year without a developed three point shot.  Just my .02.

Franz is definitely more likely to go than Hunter

Franz is a better on ball defender than Mo already and can realistically guard 2-4 at the NBA level and maybe a 1 b/c length.

Hunter looks to me to be too slow up and down the court to play at the rampant pace of the league, teams could go small on him and he'd become a liability pretty quick. If Garza was told to stay in school last year, hard to imagine Hunter gets a different grade