Development versus Talent - Michigan OL and OSU DL

Submitted by DoubleWolverin… on November 28th, 2022 at 10:56 AM

As someone who follows recruiting pretty closely, especially when it comes to the talent difference between Michigan and OSU, I have found it interesting that one of the post-game talking points from Ohio State fans was that they need to get better on the defensive line.

So I did a little digging, and in the end, I think Ohio State has a Larry Johnson problem - the Michigan staff's ability to develop offensive lineman has eliminated the talent advantage OSU has via recruiting. Moreover, and more importantly, I do not foresee a way for Ohio State to regain the advantage in the trenches through recruiting; there really isn't anywhere for them to go but down.

The front 4/5 Ohio State trotted out with recruiting ranking and position in class: JT Tuimoloau (5*, top 5 player, #1 DT), Taron Vincent (5*, #1 DT), Mike Hall Jr. (High 4*, top 50, #8 DT), Zack Harrison (5*, #2 SDE), Jack Sawyer also saw a lot of time (5*, top 5 player #3 DL).

The Michigan line: Ryan Hayes (4*, #335), Zak Zinter (4*, #265), Victor Oluwatimi (not sure what to do, so I used the transfer portal ranking, 4*, equates to around #~125-175), Trevor Keegan (4*, #184), Trente Jones (4*, #109), Karsen Barnhart (saw a lot of PT this year, (4*, #266).

There is obviously a baseline level of talent that Michigan must recruit, and there is a difference in experience, but our line has whipped up on the OSU D Line for two years. I find myself feeling more and more confident in the idea that we can continue to dominate in the trenches moving forward with this staff and their ability to develop players.

Harbaugh's Lef…

November 28th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^

The staff in its entirety has done an incredible job over the last several years in developing talent, getting the most out of each player they are bringing in and creating a culture that not only fits these players but lets them enhance it.

They've found the formula that works!

mojofilter

November 28th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^

Great points, thank you for the researched take!

I personally love that it appears we have gotten in their heads.  To the point, where they question everything.  That is an insane amount of D-Line studs.  Yet, they are not good enough per fans (based on the original post).  So do you change D-line coaches?  Change scouts/evaluators of recruits? Change the defensive coordinator or scheme to enhance their skills/talents?  Everything is on the table.

And that is an exhausting/difficult place to be.  Especially when you are an insanely good program outside of this game (like OSU is from a bird's eye perspective).

Interestingly, if you make the wrong changes, you could very well make things WORSE rather than better.  Yikes.  Not that I'm sad about it...

njvictor

November 28th, 2022 at 11:04 AM ^

You think Zach Harrison is regretting his decision to go to OSU? Dude has just over 10 career sacks as a senior and has a losing record against Michigan while Michigan's DL is producing high draft picks annually

Blue in Paradise

November 28th, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^

This pic / video will go on his NFL Draft tape - and I don't mean that in a negative way.

He showed more heart (and speed) in the 4th quarter than the rest of the OSU defense combined.  My mouth dropped when I realized it was Harrison that sort of / almost (not really, but still) caught up with Donovan.

He would have been a BEAST at Michigan - last year's pass rush would have been a 3 headed monster.

stephenrjking

November 28th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^

"Regret" is a strong word. You wind up loving the place you go. That's fine.

But it is absolutely instructive for future DL recruits. Michigan is sending guys to the NFL, dominating the trenches. OSU's more talented guys are... inconsistent at best. 

Maybe they change the narrative next year with JT leveling up. He's got the physical tools and the stars. But if they don't, we have a full-on story. 

stephenrjking

November 28th, 2022 at 11:05 AM ^

We need some elite recruits, but Michigan's talent development has been astonishing. The last two years we've seen it produce competent players to fill big holes and elite players at places where there appeared to be no such players in the pipeline.

The OL is the clearest example of that: The best running OL in the country. Good recruits, not great recruits, but you know they are excellent, and frankly we know they will be excellent in the coming years.

But it goes beyond that. Michigan has competency everywhere: look at the defensive backfield, which was hopeless two years ago. Gemon Green? Solid! The safeties? Solid! A pipeline of good TEs--our top two were out or limited, and so we pull out Colston Loveland.

And Michigan is producing *elite* players that are playing at high 4-star levels where none existed. Hassan Haskins. David Ojabo. Mike Sainristil. These are guys nobody saw being stars at their positions when they were recruited, and they're not just competent, they are elite-level difference makers. 

 

atticusb

November 28th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^

I think the shift to both a pro-style of play and player usage philosophy on the defensive side of the ball the past two years has made a huge difference. I'd love to hold onto Minter for a few more seasons... we'll see. On the offensive side of the ball, it's been a "return to basics" of a sort. It really all boils down to the OL, and being able to run about 7 deep there, with injuries inevitable. Whether you mash it, like Harbaugh wants, or pass 50 times a game, it's all made possible with a good OL... which it appears we now have the staff to recruit, develop, and maintain.  As a last hot take... the past few years have also highlighted to me the critical importance of a good center: smart, quick, powerful. Harbaugh's reinvented himself a couple of times here at Michigan, and right now, he's got himself in a great position!!!  Job's not done, of course!  GO BLUE!

klctlc

November 28th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^

Wow, thank you for the content.  This is great. 

I am too lazy to do the research but always felt this was the case.  Would love to see our DB's against their receivers. Same story I would imagine.

This really is an indictment of Day and his staff.  You look at GA and AL with similar talent to OSU and they produce year in and year out (GA more recently).

michengin87

November 28th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^

Not sure that I would agree with that regarding UGA.

UGA has not won an SEC championship since 2017 yet they've had top 5 recruiting classes in each of the last 5 classes.  

Even last year, they had to back into the CFP where they finally found a way to utilize their wealth of talent.

 

Magnum P.I.

November 28th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^

The more interesting comparison could be their DL and our DL. I think most would argue we have the better DL. With three-stars Mike Morris and Kris Jenkins, low four-star Jaylen Harrell, and high four-star Mazi Smith. That's pretty remarkable considering the insane talent OSU has on theirs. 

There's an interesting theory laying around in there somewhere. Something about whole and parts and chemistry and hard work. Not sure what the difference is.

CaliforniaNobody

November 28th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^

Got downvoted for this take on reddit over a year ago. Larry Johnson is great at convincing NFL caliber players to come play for him, but he does nothing to develop them into guys who can succeed once they're in the league. His only success stories are the Bosas who came in basically NFL ready. 

 

Also, anyone else notice Zach Harrison talking a ton of shit all first half Saturday? Hilarious that he's 0-2 and likely leaving OSU without a win over us. And I'm confident he'd have been drafted higher if he came here. 

stephenrjking

November 28th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^

Both? Very talented guys, but recruiting talent and developing it are different things. Notably, OSU *used* to be good at recruiting receivers and bad at developing them, and now they're a place you go to be transformed from a physical prospect to a comprehensively dominant receiver.

The stuff they do is not just raw physical talent. It is the route running, the body control, the hands, the sense of when to stop for the back shoulder. These guys are *really* good.

We had our own crew of highly-touted receivers a few years ago and they underwhelmed. Not hard to draw a connection. 

It's not the end of the world for Michigan, and I think OSU's receivers make CJ Stroud look better than he really is. 

 

demardorsey

November 28th, 2022 at 1:56 PM ^

Fleming is no 5⭐️

I don’t care what any recruiting service says

JSN maybe 5⭐️ but he made a business decision not to play all year

Having 5⭐️ athletes looks good on paper but if they aren’t on the field or putting in the work to make the team better because of a personal agenda then it’s just a wasted scholarship 

Give me Bell, Wilson, or Johnson over guys like that every year 

michengin87

November 28th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^

True and he was one of their best players last weekend.  No shame for him in this series. 

I remember him saying that he chose OSU over UM and that he thought that there was no way that OSU wouldn't win every game that they played each other.  He had the opportunity to make the right decision and chose the wrong door.

Best of luck in the NFL.

Amazinblu

November 28th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^

Great question - and, it seems to not only apply to the "Michigan OL vs Buckeyes DL", but also - the Michigan DL vs the Buckeyes OL.

So, what are the elements?

1. Talent - and, being talented, or with enough potential to compete at this level.  There is a difference between a four and five star prospect - but, that difference is not huge if sound fundamentals and effort are considered.  The Buckeyes have a "more talented" roster, according the the HIGH SCHOOL evaluation services - and, I don't contest that.

2. Development.  This is on the position coaches and S&C staff.  I'll go with Michigan's staff.  A strong focus on fundamentals - and, from a player perspective "passing on the knowledge" to those who younger than you.

3. Effort and desire.  This is on the players.  S&C at 6:00 am isn't easy or fun.  Their attention to detail and focus is critical.  Nothing can replace the drive a player brings to an S&C session, film study, or practice.

4. Scheme.  More complex and advance schemes are difficult to assess / diagnose in-game.  And, they are also more difficult to learn.  Michigan's staff has introduced "Sunday playing" concepts with a lot of nuance - it isn't just an IZ run, the blocking schemes are a bit more difficult to read and adjust to.

5. Culture.  What would you prefer?  A five star prospect / player who has some degree of entitlement - or a three / four star player who busts their butt at every opportunity.   I'll go with the hard worker - Blue Collar - Carhartt wearing - player.

There are a LOT of elements to it - and, essentially, it's everything.  Go Blue!

Wolverine 73

November 28th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^

We not only develop the individual skills of the players on the OL, we teach them how to play together so that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts.  OSU seems to be more of a “the whole is just the sum of the parts” kind of team.  While those individual parts are terrific, they seem to lack the cohesion that Michigan displays.

Red is Blue

November 28th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^

As Urban said, winner of trenches wins the game.  (Referencing Urban made me feel dirty).

Btw, thought it was funny that Urban said OSU would win trenches but then acknowledged that they needed to put extra men in the box to stop Michigan.  That is not winning the trenches.

RobM_24

November 28th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^

The Fox panel was horrible. Pregame, they said to stack up against the run and force JJ to beat you. At half, they said OSU was dominating Michigan's run game at the LOS and they just needed to play a 2 deep shell on the backend to limit the big plays. How exactly did they think OSU was stopping the run? I guess they wanted OSU to play with 13 on defense so they could load the box and still have 2 safeties deep. And honestly, Urban wasn't bad, most of the dumb shit came from Quinn and Bush. Bush said something about JJ only completing 50% of his passes on the season (as he's about to break the Michigan season record for completion percentage).

Romeo50

November 28th, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^

Herbert. Pay the man. Sherrone. Pay the man. Jesse. Pay the man.

I think Hart/Weiss/ElstonClink/Jaybaugh/Helow/Newsome all had significant but less heralded success improving their charges as well. Pay the men. Unfortunately, UM once again will likely lose Harbaugh acquired talent and good for them. Next man/woman up.

Hotline to John Harbaugh please. Who ya got?

Venom7541

November 28th, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^

This staff is also excellent at identifying talent that will work with the system and the culture. There is a lot to say about having players that are perfect for the team.

MaizeBlueA2

November 28th, 2022 at 12:02 PM ^

I've said this numerous times but I'll say it again.

In Football, you can build a program around 5* juniors and seniors.

Who gives a shit if most of them were a 3* when they arrived on campus. Most 5* guys aren't 5* guys on day one, they're projecting.

The key is to find the day one 5* guys (Will Johnson) and then find 20 other guys who will be 5*'s before they graduate (Mike Sainristil).

A better way to think about it is like this...if this version of Mike Sainristil was in this 2023 recruiting class...where would he rank? 

Okay, so now when Michigan gets a 3* kid this year. Don't look at him like a 3*. Just pretend he's a 5* in the 2025 class who is a 2 year early enrollee.

If he pans out and that is the case, who cares if he wasn't a '23 5* unless you are banking on him playing a major role next year?

But we don't need a 5* LB next year, we have Colson, Barrett, Hill-Green, Rolder, Mullings, (and even Pollard)...we need a 2024 or 2025, 5* LB.  Because when Colson, Barrett, and NHG are gone...the cupboard is bare.

So Semaj Bridgeman and Deuce Spurlock and potentially Jason Hewlett...those guys have a year or two to develop into 5*'s.

kyeblue

November 28th, 2022 at 12:23 PM ^

that defensive lines looked very average not just when they played against Michigan, I would've never known it was loaded with 5 stars by watching them play. It is more than just soft, it is lazy from the coaching staff all the way down. 

bronxblue

November 28th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^

Some of it is coaching but I have also long believed it's hard to evaluate players coming out of HS especially along the lines because they tend to be so physically superior to their opponents that they can look otherworldly.  UM has a number of guys in their past who came in top-25/top-50 on the OL and DL who never quite panned out, and so a guy ranked 150 and another ranked 50th might be pretty close in actuality except one might have popped a bit more on tape. 

jpo

November 28th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^

The more you narrow down the process the less error you will have, but you're still going to have considerable bleed off. Look at the NFL and how many draft picks hit or miss, and that's with the most sophisticated system of evaluation there is. Consider guys such as Travis Kelce that no one heard of in college who become big time NFL contributors. Of the roughly 70,000 college players about 2% will play in the NFL. But you have over a million HS players jockeying for those college spots, which narrow even further when you're talking about the elite programs. There are so many variables in place, not the least of which is the fact that you're dealing with 17 year old boys, that there will be all kinds of errors in the evaluation process. And bronxblue rightly points to the variations in competition levels, which also decrease as you move to college and then the pros. I think what this staff is doing well is focusing on one constant: guys who love to play football, regardless of skill level.