Commentary: Maybe we don't know what goes into making a good coach?
I appreciated this take from Matt Brown at Extra Points, where he dives into the, ahem, strictures and conventions of picking a qualified football coach.
For one, he offers up a balanced historic take on Harbaugh's hiring:
“I genuinely thought Harbaugh was a home-run hire for Michigan. I believe I actually equated it to Alabama getting Nick Saban because the comparison of wandering in the wilderness with failed "next big thing" hires before backing up the Brinks truck to get the one guy everyone said you needed to get from the beginning seemed reasonable at the time…”
Also, in comparison to other apparent "home run hires", for a while, Harbaugh maintained a level of performance better than his counterparts:
That’s true! I mean, Jim Harbaugh was a single Good Spot away from likely making the playoff back in 2016. You can argue that a consistent run of Very Good but not Elite, judged against the resources and expectations at Michigan, is not good enough. But it would be unfair to insinuate that these Michigan teams have struggled at exactly the same clip as Texas or Nebraska.
Hale and Connelly hedged a bit more about Herman and Frost, but both agreed that on paper, they seemed like good hires...
He then jumps into the "opportunity cost" of replacing coaches - and even dives into the question of whether or not a coach can be objectively evaluated on merits alone (the gist: not really):
If wins and losses are ultimately the final metric that determines who gets fired and who gets retained, well, there’s going to be luck involved.
Which then makes the decision making process that ADs and boosters are facing right now particularly challenging, as the costs for making a coaching transition are higher than ever. How much can you value what you see on the field this year? How certain can you be that you’ll make a superior decision if given another chance? Have all possible other remedies been exhausted?
Anyway, it's a fun read - and one that takes a generally academic and unbiased look at the wacky world of college head coach performance. Hope you enjoy.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^
I know...but nobody asks my opinion. ?♂️
November 30th, 2020 at 7:14 PM ^
Gumption.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^
"OUTRAGE! FURY! ANGER!" - MGoBlog Keyboard ADs.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:44 PM ^
Bullshit
We're the smartest fanbase ever
This comment sponsored by sarcasm
November 30th, 2020 at 6:45 PM ^
No one could've anticipated this when he was hired almost 6 years ago. Hiring him was absolutely the right move, and he validated it the first couple of years. But this thing has been in a downward spiral for a few years now and Harbaugh looks like a guy that's either out of answers, out of energy, or both. Maybe the next coach doesn't work out but moving on from Harbaugh now, before this thing gets even worse, is also absolutely the right move.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:47 PM ^
Yep. I don't think Michigan broke Harbaugh. I think we got him 5-6 years too late.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:51 PM ^
I think that's true. I also think it's true that he can't be in one place for too long. We all thought that it would be different here because this is where he grew up, where his family is, and where he played football for a man he absolutely idolizes. But it sure seems like he's a guy that just burns out if he's at a place for too long.
December 1st, 2020 at 11:02 AM ^
I think a lot of people might've missed a key part of thee "he wears out his welcome" thing initially. While it's likely true that he wore out his welcome at places, the part that no one really thought of is that maybe he also got tired of those places too. If you're entire professional career as a coach is built on rebuilding a program and moving on to the next job after a few years you don't really no what to do once you reach years 5, 6 and beyond or how to sustain success.
An inability to sustain success and a general feeling of "I'm stuck" from the man in charge seems to be what's plaguing Michigan now.
December 1st, 2020 at 11:39 AM ^
The "wears out his welcome" rap doesn't really add up. San Diego and Stanford were obvious "stepping stone" jobs. From the day he arrived at those places, everyone knew that if he were successful, he was going to be moving up to the next level.
That really leaves only the 49ers job, and you cannot infer a lot from one data point. It certainly is not comparable to the Michigan situation, because Harbaugh had considerable success there. If he’d achieved anything like that at Michigan, we would not be having this conversation.
The situation now is different. At every previous job, Harbaugh had success on the field, relative to the expectations going in. Michigan is his only job so far, where he has not had that kind of success.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:52 PM ^
I wonder if the postmortem of the Harbaugh era will determine that we should've hired him in 2008. Would've shut up the Lloyd supporters and probably never let the Dantonio era get off the ground.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
Having been to most of the home games of the RR era, it would have been nice. Instead the powers that be hired an outsider and knee-capped him from the start.
November 30th, 2020 at 9:20 PM ^
RichRod was kneecapped once people learned what a terrible human being he is. He was fired for sexual harassment at Arizona. He would have here too if he’d stayed here long enough. He turned out to be such a terrible coach that we dodged that bullet.
I don’t know why so many posters can’t seem to put two and two together here and continue to see this shitty human being as some kind of victim. Do people seriously think Lloyd Carr turned on him because of his style of play? Lloyd was the one who initially asked him to take the job.
November 30th, 2020 at 9:57 PM ^
These black/white good/evil conclusions you're making are downright stupid. People are not wholly bad or wholly good. Up until 6 months ago, Bo Schembechler was the patron saint of Michigan football and a hero to hundreds of former players and probably millions of fans. Turns out he helped cover up sexual abuse committed against his own players. The perpetrating doctor continued to be employed by Lloyd Carr. Even if Lloyd knew literally nothing (which we can't be certain of), he still allowed an unspeakably terrible thing to happen right under his nose.
Did Rich Rod let unacceptable things happen at Arizona? Yes. Would it have happened at Michigan? You can't possibly know that. Maybe, maybe not. It's a completely different university all the way on the other side of the country. I don't know of any allegations of misconduct from his time at Michigan. Do you? Or are you implying that any coach who swears and yells at players is likely someone who will permit sexual harassment? Because yelling and swearing are the terrible transgressions Michigan insiders pointed to when complaining about Rich Rod being a bad guy. Which is ridiculous. Given what Michigan knew at the time, the program treated Rich Rod unfairly and did not give him the support he deserved. In that sense he was a victim.
November 30th, 2020 at 10:06 PM ^
I agree with your general sentiment here, but RR didn't just permit sexual harassment. He perpetrated it, and pretty egregiously. (I'm not sure whether I knew about this when it happened, though another poster induced me to look it up recently. It's not great.)
November 30th, 2020 at 9:21 PM ^
He was pretty unproven at that point. No head coaching experience. Only would have been considered then because he was a former player.
This is why I feel Michigan should hire Hafley. He’s not proven now but I think he’s going to blow up within a few years.
November 30th, 2020 at 10:12 PM ^
He had 4 years of experience at San Diego. Certainly you can argue no FBS experience, but he did have head coaching experience.
November 30th, 2020 at 11:08 PM ^
He had the win over USC in 2007. I think that would've helped his argument.
December 1st, 2020 at 12:08 AM ^
The more I really look in the the CC the more I really hope this hire happens more than Campbell and I really hope it's not Fickell.
December 1st, 2020 at 6:11 AM ^
If we had a crystal ball then yeah 100%. People at the time would've been widely skeptical of that hire though as Harbaugh was just 4-8 and 5-7 at Stanford at the time
November 30th, 2020 at 7:32 PM ^
You know, for all the talk we've produced around here about what happened at Stanford and how well overall he did with the 49ers, I think this right here might be the one thing we miss in those discussions. It really does seem sometimes like he was the right guy in a different time / place and we may have (finally, depending on how you view this) landed him much too late to get the results we thought we might.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:40 PM ^
He has too much experience? Saban wasn't SABAN until he got to Alabama, over 10 years after he started at Michigan State. Dabo literally grew into the job in his time there with quite a few public setbacks.
If you're looking for something really under the radar about Harbaugh. Did his rise at Stanford somewhat coincide with Stanford's outsized importance in the tech / startup / private equity world making it easier to recruit HIS kind of guys--OL in particular.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:48 PM ^
“Sabina wasn’t Sabin before Alabama”?
Except for that National Championship he won at LSU
November 30th, 2020 at 9:52 PM ^
hell, saban was terrifying in east lansing. i remember being ecstatic when he went to lsu.
December 1st, 2020 at 12:07 AM ^
Ditto this comment. Saban was a rising star at MSU. Lloyd Carr probably thanked his lucky stars that he didn't stick around there. If Saban stayed at MSU for 7 or 8 years I am pretty convinced MSU would've beaten Michigan more than half the time.
December 1st, 2020 at 8:46 AM ^
Yes and no.
Saban was not a nobody when Bama hired him. Seemed like a smart hire. As good a roll of the dice as any at the time.
But it was very far from obvious that it was a grand slam hire at the time.
He was just, Nick Saban--probably pretyy good, but with a mixed record, so who knows? He was not at all considered to be 'future top 5 CFB coach of all time.' He was not analogous to OSU hiring Meyer.
There were a lot a valid questions about Saban at the time.
Why so bad at the Dolphins?
Plus, his MSU and LSU periods were mixed.
MSU: Three 6 win years, one 7 win year, and one 9 win year.
LSU: 48-16 over five years. Almost exactly the same as Harbaugh's first 5 years at Michigan!
Of course he had something Harbaugh does not have: That one really great year at LSU (year 4), 13-1 with a BCS national championship.
But... Ed Orgeron has one national championship at LSU, too. Does anyone think he is the next Nick Saban? Of course not.
So, in fact, 'Saban was not Saban' until he actually crushed everybody at Bama is absolutely true.
December 1st, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^
you need to read this from august of 2007 if you don't think saban going to alabama was a big deal, especially to alabama
November 30th, 2020 at 11:41 PM ^
Are you scared of Les Miles, Ed Orgeron, Gene Chizik? These guys have also won national titles in this century. Big difference coming in as a former national title holder and a short failed NFL stint in 2007 and what he is today. Big Difference!
November 30th, 2020 at 7:57 PM ^
I mean Saban DID have a national title at LSU and turned that into an NFL job
November 30th, 2020 at 9:15 PM ^
Uh, he did win a NC at LSU.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:18 PM ^
I think there were those of us who thought, when he was hired, that his pattern of being someplace for 4-5 years before he wears out his welcome might remain true to form. Although we also hoped that maybe being “home” would be a strong factor in changing that trend.
Even if that did end up being the case though, we at least envisioned him having some major success and that, when he left for new pastures, the program would be in overall much better shape than when found it.
I don’t think even in our worst nightmares any of us could have envisioned the implosion of both him and the team that has happened.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:19 PM ^
Really? Not saying Michigan had better options, but there were red flags. He left the Niners in a complete huff. He has had a tendency to burn bridges. He never won the Pac 10/12. Luck was a great QB who is the son of a former NFL QB.
I get everyone who is a Michigan fan overlooked all of this and just saw Michigan Man greatness, but to believe this wasn't possible is false.
November 30th, 2020 at 8:00 PM ^
I would not have been surprised if he left because he got tired of a demanding fan base, dealing with bosses who are academics not football people, wanting to go back to the league or just got bored. None of those would have surprised me. I would have been incredulous at the thought of him going 0-7 against OSU or being 2-6 ever, much less after years on the job.
November 30th, 2020 at 8:15 PM ^
I agree that he seemed like he was going to be an amazing coach. I thought for sure we’d be at the very least beating OSU 1 out of every 3 years or so.
People say he never won the Pac10/12 and that’s true but did you see Stanford before he arrived? What he did at Stanford was nothing short of remarkable...
The 2016 Michigan team seemed to play with great intensity and an attitude. I don’t know what’s happened. I wish this worked but it hasn’t. I don’t know how anybody could have faith in him ever beating OSU. He wasn’t given that ridiculous contract to win 8-10 games a year.
November 30th, 2020 at 8:37 PM ^
It was the right hire 6 years ago but it’s going downhill. Hiring a head football coach is always a bit of a crap shoot. But there is some proven talent out there that makes it a lot less of a crap shoot. We have the resources to go after anyone out there and I would start by swinging for the fences. Contact Dabo and tell him you will buy out his contract and give him 10 million a year. What the hell start at the top and work your way down
December 1st, 2020 at 12:13 AM ^
I appreciate your swing for the fences attitude but some things are simply unattainable. Much better chance of landing Urban Meyer. Dabo would never, ever, leave Clemson for Michigan. No way, no how. He is winning big and is an unbelievably perfect fit for the school and its fans. He is a southern guy and fits right in with the fanbase. Only time he would leave Clemson is if his alma mater Alabama offered him a job.
December 1st, 2020 at 8:56 AM ^
I think your probably right Durham but you never know until you ask. My thought was approach him and see what comes of it. If it’s no fine nothing loss and move on to the next top candidate. I think we have the resources to go after the best and could probably land a top coach with the right package
December 1st, 2020 at 11:58 AM ^
It's always nice when you're spending other people's money.
November 30th, 2020 at 8:50 PM ^
Yes. But if he didn't come east, plan B in Dan Mullen likely would have turned out better. This was the one prediction THE_KNOWLEDGE made that I wish were right, for he said Mullen would replace Hoke, just after the bowl loss to Mullen.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
Best quote of the lot:
"I think the biggest takeaway in all of this is that too much gets put on getting the right head coach, when in actuality, much of the drama and struggles stem from problematic relationships with boosters and administration folks whose names are rarely known outside of the most devout fans. The word I always hear from college football folks is "alignment," and that's a tough thing to find and often equally difficult to predict. It's why Herm Edwards or Mack Brown have turned out to actually be fairly solid hires, and guys we assumed would be terrific like Frost and Harbaugh have struggled."
November 30th, 2020 at 7:07 PM ^
Sounds like bullshit. Harbaugh and Frost are beloved sons at their respective institutions. You really think they don't have the powers that be aligned? Meanwhile Herm Edwards has achieved a "successful" 15-12 record at ASU because everyone is behind him? Yeah right.
November 30th, 2020 at 8:40 PM ^
I think alignment makes perfect sense. Michigan has a persona or brand that hasn't been embodied since Lloyd Carr - stoic, strong, reserved, cerebral. That character was reflected in a lot of the players at the time too like Ty Law and Steve Hutchinson.
Rich Rod spoke to the cultural difficulties he had as an outlier. Everything about him was counter to the Michigan brand.
Brady Hoke was a chubby oafish fellow who checked none of those boxes and I'm not sure Harbaugh does either.
Without knowing any of the major players, I can see how Harbaugh's ribald style might lead to 'problematic relationships with boosters and administration folks'.
November 30th, 2020 at 8:52 PM ^
Rarely were great players even good coaches. Have to be pretty gifted to be both physically elite AND elite intellegence.
In the 'great coach' cohort you at one end a nerd who never played, like a Marv Levy, and then at the other end one who had an uneventful short career like Parcells, and in between fall almost all the great coaches.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:09 PM ^
There's a level of Bo worship around rich alumni which seriously hampers Michigan.
Imagine if Ohio State would only allow itself to hire Woody disciples because its donors wouldn't accept anything else.
November 30th, 2020 at 11:44 PM ^
I work with several ex-Bo players and can confirm this.
December 1st, 2020 at 12:17 AM ^
The only thing that will help Michigan fans distance themselves from the glory Bo days is if a non-Michigan Man coach won big at Michigan. We'd all be like, "Bo who?"
December 1st, 2020 at 6:38 AM ^
I was at school during Bo's heyday and love the guy. I can't confirm your first sentence, but it makes a lot of sense. Your second sentence is profoundly true.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:13 PM ^
That's definitely an interesting quote, but I'm still a little confused why "alignment" with boosters and administration would have that huge of an impact on on-the-field football performance? What does this exactly mean and why would Herm Edwards and Mack Brown be such good examples of "it"?
November 30th, 2020 at 7:24 PM ^
Frost and Herman are in the same boat. Guys who won big at Group of 5 schools where it's pretty easy to win big. They were a lot riskier than assumed because nobody looked behind the curtain. Hell the Herman issues were actually visible--a 2nd season mid-year swoon including some inexplicable close games and a stunning 3 TD loss to SMU.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
I get your point and think there’s a lot of merit to it.
Except in the case of Harbaugh and Frost they, along Urban at OSU, were some of the most universally hailed and supported hires in CFB history, let alone in the B10. They had advantages most coaches dream of and they just haven’t gotten it done, albeit for different reasons: Harbaugh for what seems to be personal issues and Frost because Nebraska is a program long past it’s glory days that isn’t going to be nationally relevant in today’s CFB landscape.
November 30th, 2020 at 7:04 PM ^
The shitty call from those OSU fans/refs in 2016 really messed everything up. Fuck those refs.