Commentary: Maybe we don't know what goes into making a good coach?

Ding-ding! We don't know jack about who's a good CFB coach. Problem is neither does anyone else. I fall back on the fact Harbaugh is clearly not himself, and has lost the team, perhaps even his assistant coaches too. I worry about his mental health; time to move on.  But, I have exceptionally modest expectations for his successor.

Wins against osu...

What happens if the Legends and Leaders alignment was still in place with Rutgers and Maryland in separate divisions. I think Harbaugh makes it to at least two B1G championship games and maybe even wins one. That would totally change the current narrative. There are some big challenges right now with roster depth, player development, injuries, and scheme on both sides of the ball, but before the 2018 OSU game, the biggest issue was being in the same division as historically strong OSU, PSU, and MSU teams at the same time, particularly OSU. Going against Urban Meyer and the strongest division in football at the time made Harbaugh’s immediate impact in the first four years seem less dramatic than it really was. 

and even dives into the question of whether or not a coach can be objectively evaluated on merits alone (the gist: not really):

Ultimately it doesn't really matter why JH is failing or how we got here because it's obvious he's lost the team.  Once you get to that point it's almost impossible to get them back.  He came close and there are a lot of "what ifs".  But, it's time to move on and it doesn't matter why and does us no good spending time focusing on it.  What does matter is assessing the next coach and making the next hire.  That is equally difficult.  Clearly there are factors that are outside of a coach's control.  UM also has some cultural issues that make the job more challenging than other places with equal resources.  This makes it difficult to find the right guy.  But, it's time to give it another shot.  Because hiring another coach that doesn't quite meet our expectations will be a lot better than what we're getting now and likely to get from JH if he remains in 2021.  Change can be good even if it's not necessarily better.  Right now getting player buy-in back and effort and enthusiasm would do a lot for the team and the program and a new coach is likely to get that because hope is a powerful tool.

There are a lot of layers to unpeel here, but there is a great article on ESPN about Florida State and the different agendas of the athletic department, boosters and Jimbo. They literally watched Clemson pass them by over the last 5 years and didn't / couldn't / wouldn't do anything about it. 

You want to find a good coach? Start by finding out why a potential head coach COULD have succeeded other than their presence. Is Cincinnati good because of Fickell or because it's easier to win there than say SMU? Was RichRod good because of his great offense or did his rise coincide with the departure of Miami and Virginia Tech to the ACC? Was Frost good because of his Oregon offense or because any decent coach can win a lot of games at Central Florida? Not saying this should be disqualifying, but it should, at the least, result in more inquiries.

I think coaches in general are hard to find. 

If you look at the 2014/2015 coaching hires, nearly all the big names either flopped or were disappointing. Harbaugh ended up being around the 4th best coach in that cycle, debatably ahead of Herman. The best coaches in that cycle were: 

-A mediocre Pitt coach (Chryst who got hired at Wisconsin)
-A Kentucky Assistant Coach (Neal Brown hired at Troy and now at WV)
-A D3 coach (Lance Leiopold hired at Buffalo) 

Simple winning!

I’m sorry, but do you know how many games of NCAA14 I won on Xbox 360? 

It’s very hard to predict who is going to be successful.  Sometimes it’s the perfect situation then they leave that school and never find their groove elsewhere.  Sometimes they are a great coach, don’t evolve with the game and get left behind.  Maybe a great coach loses their edge, gets burned out, loses their way.  
 

what’s clear is that we no longer have a good coach.  It happens, he’s $50 million richer, got us out of the hoke hole, but lost his edge.  If I ever meet him, I’ll thank him for being the coach.  It’s time to change though, no one on either side should feel bad.  It’s business.

I’m so torn on this. Part of me thinks just bring in an entire new defensive staff, extend with a smaller buy out and hope that makes things better. Honestly, I’m just not sold on any of the potential replacements. This season has been disappointing, not because the W’s and L’s, but the piss poor execution and the apparent lack of recruiting in certain spots on the defense. 

Urban Meyer

Yes they were one good, even fair, spot away from the CFP. But it wasn’t even his roster. Look at what he’s doing with his roster 6 years in. No depth and less talent or poorly developed talent.

I bet I can pick a coach as well as someone named Ford.

"I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced within that shorthand description; and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I know if when I see it; and the coaching I am seeing in this case is not that."

That's what every disillusioned fanbase says.

Yeah, see, that's the trouble. Bringing calm analysis to what eveyone knows is a dumpster fire worthy of angry outrage and pitchforks..

this reminded me of a great story on ESPN on the demise of Florida State.

Not saying Michigan has the same issues behind the scenes - they don't. Certainly not to the same degree.

However it does highlight that even guys you think would work, Jimbo, sometimes are out of alignment with the AD and boosters.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30331494/deep-deep-hole-6-year-unraveling-florida-state-football

worthwhile reading if you have the time.

Hilarious the people still use the 2016 OSU game as an excuse for his overall disappointing tenure at Michigan. He had a chance to go 11-2 against an FSU team that lost by 40 to Louisville and was missing their best player in Derwin James. Team came out flat, and then got screwed by poor clock management at the end(sound familiar?)

Then in 2018, terrible play-calling and inability to string together a solid offense cost us the ND game. Sound familiar again? He has a chance to go 11-2 AGAIN vs Florida, and we get blown out. Cue the excuses about how "bowl games don't matter" and "too many players sat out". 

2019 rolls around.. returning tons of starters.. Somehow goes 9-4 with 10 NFL draft picks. Loses badly to Wisconsin and PSU, which don't have close to the talent we have. Cue the excuses about how "Michigan has always been 9-10 win team, even under Lloyd and Bo!!"

He's been a good coach for Michigan, and successfully turned the program around. He's also been very disappointing with a terrible 1-4 bowl record, and has gotten worse since 2016. Both things are true. 

That's a great piece. We've certainly seen enough to know that there are no easy answers. Young coach, offensive-minded coach, defensive-minded coach, coach without Michigan ties, coach with Michigan ties, coach with NFL experience, coach without NFL experience, drill instructor, player's coach--none of these guarantee success. 

i might say it differently.  i think we know what makes a good coach - most of us have played for a coach, or been part of a successful organization, and we instinctively know what works.

what we don't know in this case is what coaches are like behind closed doors, when it's just the team around, and that, i think, is way way way more important than what happens during a game, or certainly during a press conference.  bill belichick is TERRIBLE in a press conference.  his players don't give a shit about that tho.

One key factor may be whether or not the new HC can bring his own staff with him.  Bo did that.  Moeller inherited a staff except for 1-2 coaches who left after Schembechler retired.  I'm pretty sure the Carr transition was similar to Moeller's.  I don't recall how many of Lloyd's assistants left after his first full year.  RR brought most of his staff except for his DC.  There's been a lot of back and forth on why he didn't come and how important that was and why.  Personally, I think the distinguishing feature of RR's transition was how bare the cupboard was at UofM.  I especially recall the QB situation and how he had to start a first year QB each year he was HC.  Hoke brought about half of his assistants with him from San Diego.  Harbaugh brought several including the OC and Durkin as his new DC.  Most really elite coaches developed a "tree" of assistants who went on to bigger and better things.  Bo is really the only one who has done this at UofM.  I think the fact that he brought along a bunch of young assistants that he knew really well was a key.  So, based on the above, I'd look for a young HC who has been successful at a lower tier conference/school and has a young staff that's been with him for awhile.  The chemistry and their culture would come with them.     

The idea of alignment is certainly born out in many cases. I could coach Wisconsin to 9-win seasons because Alvarez has built a machine and culture that will produce consistent results regardless of who the coach is. The Pittsburgh Steelers are an NFL example of how consistency can pay off. Clemson. The Kansas City Chiefs have almost always been good.  For a long time the Montreal Canadiens were that franchise. 
The problem is that it’s really hard. But it certainly isn’t all luck. Urban Meyer could turn UM into a football powerhouse. So could Saban. Probably Swinney. 
The hard truth is that you never know how a hire will turn out. Matt Campbell might be our Urban Meyer or Bo Schembechler. Or he might be Brady Hoke. Same for Fickell. Guys that have done it at multiple stops are the closest thing to sure things. Harbaugh was one of those. 
Michigan faces some unique challenges, but we are still one hire away from greatness. If the Athletic Department can find a way to build the alignment that makes success easier, that’s the real ticket to long term success. Short of that, we need our Saban or Meyer to appear, and that is extremely unlikely.