Clemson's nonconference schedule has been as weak as Michigan's
As you all know, the CFP rationalized ranking Michigan below Clemson by knocking Michigan's non-conference schedule. Michigan's notoriously weak non-conference schedule included Colorado State (#128 in SP+), Hawaii (#129), and UConn (#123).
Which is interesting, because Clemson's non-conference schedule, up to now, has included two teams: Louisiana Tech (#120 in SP+) and Division I-AA Furman.
Clemson plays Notre Dame this weekend for its strongest "non-conference" game, and SEC South Carolina to end the year. But up to now, which is what the CFP is supposed to consider, Clemson's non-conference schedule is not impressive at all. The judgment of the CFP committee is equally unimpressive—especially since committee member Warde Manuel is forced to recuse himself from conversations about Michigan.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:42 PM ^
Enough. Just keep winning.
November 4th, 2022 at 6:31 PM ^
This.
Michigan isn’t getting in over a one loss conference champ from the SEC or PAC 12 if we win out but lose to OSU. If Alabama wins out, and either GA or TENN wins out but loses to Bama, they are in too. OSU or Mich are in, but not both, unless everyone else has 2 losses.
And personally, I like it that way. 12 teams is too many and the regular season rivalry loses a little luster when it doesn’t mean as much at the end of the year and might have to play that same team again.
November 4th, 2022 at 6:39 PM ^
I understand your thought process and appreciate your logic but I’m going to have to highly disagree.
I don’t care if they let every team in the playoff. Losing to Ohio State is the worst possible thing that can happen.
November 4th, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^
Uh… duh?
November 4th, 2022 at 7:10 PM ^
This post did nothing but make me think of the baseketball playoffs.
Less Parker and stone, more al davis.
Just win baby!
November 4th, 2022 at 10:29 PM ^
We aren’t getting in over Clemson with 1 loss while winning the ACC CCG. That seems obvious right now with them getting the fourth spot over us. There is the outside chance that the committee stays consistent and adds value for beating Illinois if that happens, assuming they still have the one loss when we play and we pass them. It seems as though this year they’re really watching that SOR and SOS. What I hate is that yes according to the poll Clemson has numerous top 25 wins at the moment. How impressive are they though? Will they get dinged if/when these teams drop out of the rankings?They weren’t particularly dominant, and just recently almost lost to Syracuse, needing their backup QB to replace DJ, and not because of injury or pull out the win. Then ND immediately blasted Cuse the next weekend. This situation starting up right now is exactly why there needs to be expansion asap. The fact that there are less playoff spots than power conferences during this initial run of the CFP is pathetic. How do you finally adopt a playoff and not even set it up for all of the major players to participate let alone everyone else. So dumb.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:42 PM ^
The issue is the CFP committee views their rankings as the gold source. They have wins over #20 Syracuse, #21 NC State, #22 Wake Forest whereas we just have a win over #16 Penn State. They give you almost no credit for beating a team outside their top 25. Iowa & Maryland are ranked higher than Wake Forest & NC State in SP+ and MSU is ranked not too far behind Syracuse. It’s a really dumb way of looking at things but it’s what they’re doing. We got unlucky because MSU and Iowa are usually ranked towards the bottom of the top 25 in an average year and we got them both unranked this year. Luckily we have a chance at a ranked win vs. Illinois and a top 3 win vs. OSU.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
So true. All those three teams playing Iowa will lose 4-3. LOL.
It is what it is. Unfortunately, this ranking means UM is not going to get in without beating OSU, unless chaos happens.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^
The problem for the CFC is that if you put a lot of stock in non-conference scheduling, the best win for Ohio State is a victory in its opener over Notre Dame. So, ND is suddenly a lynchpin in the weighting of SOS & ranking status for Clemson since ND easily crushed Syracuse away after the Orange were easily handled at home by ND. So, is ND the litmus test for college football supremacy?
Status should be justified by actual results not by scheduling debate.
Michigan hasn't been challenged by anyone this season regardless of their scheduling. Maybe the Wolverines deserve being Top 4 until proven otherwise. Why is it that pollsters give Alabama a shot at making the NC even with one loss when there are more than 6 unbeaten teams this week?
Who's interest is being protected?
November 4th, 2022 at 5:42 PM ^
"Why is it that pollsters give Alabama a shot at making the NC even with one loss when there are more than 6 unbeaten teams this week?"
Is this a serious question?
November 4th, 2022 at 6:05 PM ^
It is obvious why Bama gets the ratings boost and it is hard to argue. But if they were any other school and had a loss to Tennessee, a should-be loss to a bad A&M, and a near loss to Texas who was using a back-up QB....would they be in the top-6?
Fascinated to see Bama versus LSU in a road night game. Bama is averaging like 13 penalties on the road and playing tight games.
The earlier comment about Clemson is spot on - they have "ranked" teams on their schedule so they get the boost. The CFP isn't looking at SP+ or advanced metrics. They're doing a complex game of transitive property. In the end, we are where we are every year - you either have to be undefeated (rewarding teams with weak schedules) or have one loss in the SEC. I used to hate the idea of a 8+ team playoff because of how it diluted the regular season, but it is so difficult to make the playoff that it has to change.
Look at the NFL - imagine if they had a playoff committee. There would only be three teams to talk about because the rest have two or more losses through 8 weeks.
November 4th, 2022 at 8:49 PM ^
Yes. It's about performance not reputation. And even so, Bama's performance has been less than dominating than its reputation. They were nearly beat by a Texas backup qb in Austin and then survived Texas A&M at home after the Aggies lost to Appalachian State.
I mean the setup by the committee here guarantees two SEC teams will make it to the final four. The fix is in.
And given that, there is nothing to suggest either Georgia or Tennessee will be eliminated from the championship hunt after their showdown tomorrow. And Alabama by winning out will face one or the other in the SEC championship with no indication a loss would eliminate the loser. The committee is ensuring two SEC playoff teams with the possibility of a third depending on the drama of their competition in the final weeks of the season.
Every other team in the playoff race from any outside conference is done with one loss. They are out without exception.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:46 PM ^
All the Alabama loss did was remove some of their margin for error. If they win out they are in, just like all the undefeated teams you mentioned
November 4th, 2022 at 8:39 PM ^
Annoying how circular the logic becomes, especially when they start slobbering on the SEC
When other leagues beat each other it's because they stink. When SEC teams stink, we make LSU #10
November 4th, 2022 at 10:12 PM ^
NCSt AD is on the committee is why.
November 4th, 2022 at 10:41 PM ^
So if 2/3 or all 3 of these teams drop out of the top 25 are they going to drop Clemson behind us or is this just a way to put them ahead of us and then leave them there if they win out? That’s what I’m worried about. I still can’t believe Syracuse could lose two games in a row, one a blowout at home to ND and still be ranked where they are while 6-2 Maryland remains unranked. It’s not scientific by any means but if we played those 3 ranked teams I believe we would have ground them into dust like most other teams. I also believe our beat down of PSU is a much better individual win than anything Clemson has done. The icing on top is Clemson pulled their starting QB, not for injury, to pullout that Syracuse win. That’s not a good look for a playoff team.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:42 PM ^
Sure, but they beat CFP #20 (Syracuse), #21 (Wake Forest) and #22 (NC State).
Just don't ask me how/why those teams managed to be ranked #20-22, because that just seems crazy. Wake just got crushed by Louisville, Syracuse got crushed by ND and NC State can brag about one-point wins over E. Carolina and Va Tech.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
A BS late hit penalty saved them against Syracuse -- they should have lost that game.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
Syracuse shitting the bed late in that game hurt us more than anything. But we still control our destiny.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:57 PM ^
They've been so close to losing so many times this year. Hell, they were having a tough time against BC in the first half. I watched most of that game and they just looked bad.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
I just saw on a podcast. That Harrell, Mazi smith, gemon green, and left tackle Hayes are not traveling to Rutgers.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
Ugh. Rutgers might get a first down. Hope they are back next week.
November 4th, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
What happened to Smith?
November 4th, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^
They just stated they are banged up does not sound like it is long term, but my concern was Hayes and Smith. Expected green to be out
November 4th, 2022 at 5:56 PM ^
On3 reporting that Morris, Okie, and Jenkins will get “extra snaps.”
November 4th, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
Truly treating this like an exhibition lmao
November 4th, 2022 at 5:04 PM ^
This really doesn’t matter. We beat OSU and win the BIG, we go to the playoff. Id rather No 2 or 3 Michigan plays number 2 or 3 Clemson than number 3 Alabama or Tennessee. If we don’t beat OSU, hello Rose Bowl
November 4th, 2022 at 5:07 PM ^
I hear that but it’s annoying that Alabama will get multiple shots at getting in…I absolutely hated the way they seeded it last year. We’d should’ve played Cincinnati.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
Well, Michigan starts winning year in and out like Alabama and OSU and Michigan will get the same deference.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:50 PM ^
"Michigan starts winning year in and out like Alabama and OSU and Michigan will get the same deference."
Bingo. I honestly don't understand all the whining about Clemson (six playoff appearances, 4 title games, 2 NCs) and Alabama (played in 6 of the last 7 NC games, winning 3)—they're getting the benefit of the doubt exactly the same way that dominant programs have always gotten.
It may not be fair, but it's been the reality for decades.
November 4th, 2022 at 6:01 PM ^
This is a real "chicken or the egg" situation here. These teams are sometimes getting in without winning their conferences, and often without deserving it. Is it this benefit of the doubt that makes them "win year in and out" or is it the winning that creates the benefit of the doubt. I'm not so sure.
November 4th, 2022 at 8:10 PM ^
If Clemson was getting its ass kicked 38-11 every time it got into the playoffs, few would be giving it the benefit of the doubt the way they are today.
November 4th, 2022 at 6:04 PM ^
Well it matters if we do not beat OSU. 3 SEC teams have gotten the nod to lose a game. Clemson has to go undefeated, but ND is the best opponent they will face all year.
This sort of screws OSU as well, there would be an argument to be made if they lost in a close game with them 1 and Michigan 2 that they deserved a playoff spot over an undefeated Clemson, or an undefeated TCU, or a 1 loss SEC. But they can't afford to lose to us either.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
Doesn’t matter the CFP commish is a ACC AD.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:08 PM ^
So, Notre Dame is a nominal member of the ACC, given whatever agreement it signed in blood with the conference to pretend its an independent program with conference ties when it suits their national playoff interests.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:08 PM ^
Clemson is a fraud. That is all
November 4th, 2022 at 5:17 PM ^
"which is what the CFP is supposed to consider"
There is no supposed to. Each committee member determines their own criteria.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:20 PM ^
True but it certainly makes more sense to consider games that have been played rather than games that have yet to be played when deciding upon the strength of teams.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:23 PM ^
Jesus loves Dabo more than Harbaugh.
Everybody in the south knows this and therefore, they will be ranked ahead of UM.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:26 PM ^
The ACC and SEC having 8-game conference schedules also makes their overall SOS weaker, but no one seems to call them out for it. Take Tennessee for example: their non-con is Ball State, Akron, Tennessee-Martin (FCS), and Pitt. Pitt is stronger than any of our non-conference opponents, but the other 3 are basically equivalent to our 3 non-con opponents. But Tennessee gets a pass for it because they played Pitt...even though that just means they play 9 Power-5 opponents, the same as us.
The gap is even more significant in normal years when we play just two cupcakes and a Power 5 in the non-conference. Usually we play 10 Power 5 opponents, and the SEC/ACC teams only play 9.
November 5th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
I expect many here won't like it but I believe that the Big 10 should follow the lead of ACC/SEC and go back to only playing eight conference games, one non-conference game against a decent Power 5 opponent and three baby seals each year.
It would also be smart to schedule one of the cupcake non-conference opponents late in the season like SEC teams do to give yourself a defacto "bye" week late in the year.
November 4th, 2022 at 5:42 PM ^
I'm much more irritated that OSU is ranked ahead of us. We killed them last year, our performances against same opponents is better, we have been more in control of every game.
It's fine. We'll prove it on the field. But there's just too much data for someone just to say "explosive" and think that's rationale. We don't have a championship; we have a four-team, subjective invitational.
November 4th, 2022 at 6:06 PM ^
This sport more than any other is driven by narrative. The narrative is that OSU has been more dominant. That is due in part to flashy numbers on the scoreboard, and also in part to historical dominance over the past decade.
It's BS, but hopefully it pisses off the team and motivates them
November 4th, 2022 at 6:17 PM ^
Win The Game.
It will all work out.
Go Blue!
November 4th, 2022 at 6:28 PM ^
I really think that the non-conference schedule is only the second most important factor the “committee” used to justify Clemson above Michigan. The most important factor, in my opinion, was the rankings of NC state, Syracuse and wake forest in the CFP top 25. That gave Clemson “the most wins against CFP top 25 teams” of any unbeaten team.
Thing is, that a lot of metrics don’t rate those teams as top 25 caliber. FPI, for instance, has Maryland at 25 and all three ACC squads at 30 or below. SP+ similarly rates Maryland as a fringe top 25 team while all those ACC teams are below them.
The main reason that those ACC teams are in the CFP top 25 while Maryland remains out is because of poll inertia. NC state and Wake forest began the season in the AP top 25 and Syracuse has been in the AP poll for a few weeks now. The CFP “committee” does not deviates too much from which teams are in the CFP top 25 versus in the AP. The order will sometimes be different, but often lots of teams in the weekly AP poll will find their way into the CFP top 25.
November 4th, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^
The CFP Chairman is from the ACC.....Hmmmmmmmm
November 4th, 2022 at 6:38 PM ^
I'n curious to know why the CFP Committee is considered superior at picking the top 4 teams to the AP or Coaches' Polls.
I'm asking, not prescribing. I'm sure folks here can explain to a doubter why the stuff around the CFP is a superior system to the old polling systems.
Having a playoff is fine, obviously; have the teams play. Ranking the ones who will is sometimes the issue.
The ranking exercise seems as fraught with problems as the old poll system until the end of the season and any conference championship games. Before that, what's the point of the rankings?
November 4th, 2022 at 7:46 PM ^
They are mandated to follow the same guidelines and receive at least some of the same basic data, while the AP and Coaches can fill out their ballots however they want. I don't think it makes it "superior" per se, but there is more uniformity in how they are evaluating teams.
And waiting until this week does help remove some of the early season biases, etc. Like ranking Tennessee number 1 was the right call based on their body of work this season, whereas poll inertia has kept UGA atop the other polls.
November 4th, 2022 at 7:42 PM ^
We've played THREE non-con cupcakes. They've played only two. That matters in the overall SoS conversation which is ultimately what matters. Three out of eight will bring down the average difficulty more than two. It's simple math.
That said, ESPN FPI has them as the 72nd most difficult, ours the 79th.
Sagarin has theirs 65, ours 69th (nice).
It's very close obviously. But if you're going to say, ok they're both 8-0, who has played the more difficult schedule, it's them.
We've only played two teams with winning records! Just TWO! And both were at home. Insanely weak schedule.
They've beaten three teams the committee thinks are top 25 teams, one on the road, plus another solid 5-3 team on the road (FSU). We have just one top 25 win and it was at home.
They have a better collection of wins, without question. They haven't looked very convincing in those wins but if you're going on resume, which the committee usually leans, it's understandable to have them ahead.
We've looked better via the eye test for sure but hard to complain at this point given our terrible schedule. And who cares, cuz just beat Ohio.