Bruce Feldman Athletic article: M is 14th in talent overall. Harbaugh and others disagree.
Interesting Athletic article, captured in the headline, a fair conversation. We are 14th in 4-5 star talent on roster, but Harbaugh predicts we will have 20 (!) draft picks next year, and some draft experts agree.
Considering this past season was what amounts to a rebuilding year and we still had 9 guys drafted, that seems like a reasonable take.
Juding the talent on a college football roster (outside of the true freshman) on their high school recruiting rankings is like giving employee reviews at work based on their high school or college GPAs.
I mean, a solid GPA from a top university helps you get your foot in the door - but one people settle into their roles, it becomes close to meaningless.
Judge talent based on their college film, not old HS rankings.
I peaked in HS. I am good with that :D
Absolutely. A 5-star true freshman Olineman ranks higher than a 3-star fourth-year starting all-B1G Olineman by this metric.
Yeah I don't care about stars and all that stuff. I'd rather have pro talent than high school talent!
I love the analogy. NOICE!
It's called player development. You'd be hard-pressed to name a program that does it better.
I agree, they've made great strides. There was a time when it wasnt so great.
If you look at what ohio brings in on a talent comp. if M wins for the third straight game this year, Day should be fired.
The combination of talent evaluations, ie high ceiling can play at an elite level. Developing said talent and work ethic of players to reach that level!
What I wouldn’t give to have a few past players on this roster. But theee guys are going after it. They want that legacy!
I hear that a lot, are there any stats on this somewhere?
I count 22 draft eligible starting level players:
- JJ McCarthy
- Blake Corum
- Donovan Edwards
- Cornelius Johnson
- Roman Wilson
- AJ Barner
- Karsen Barnhart
- Trente Jones
- Ladarius Henderson
- Myles Hinton
- Zak Zinter
- Trevor Keegan
- Drake Nugent
- Kris Jenkins
- Braiden McGregor
- Josaiah Stewart
- Jaylen Harrell
- Junior Colson
- Michael Barrett
- Mike Sainristil
- Rod Moore
- Makari Paige
It would be extremely disappointing to lose 20 of these players. I would hope we could keep at least some of the line players and one of the safeties. And then of course launch the world's largest One More Year campaign for JJ.
Barrett is a lock to stay. Hype man extraordinare for life!!
If JJ comes back, something's gone wrong. He's a 1st or early 2nd round QB if he plays up to his potential and he'd be crazy to pass that up.
What have you seen from JJs play to suggest he's a first or second round QB?
I watched him badly outplay the #2 player picked in the 2023 draft in Columbus last year.
Certainly doesn't guarantee anything but it was a very strong data point in favor of JJ.
"Badly outplay" is a stretch. JJ was 12/24 for 263 yards and 3 TDs, no picks, and six rushes for 27 yards and a TD. Stroud was 31/48 for 349 yards and 2 TDs, 2 picks, one of which was a desperation throw near the end of the game.
You could point to YPA as a difference maker, but Stroud was the offense for OSU. JJ kept the team in the game until the long Edwards runs pulled them away. It was a total team effort from Michigan winning that game on both sides of the ball. OSU put everything on Stroud, it was no surprise when he cracked near the end of the game.
Also there have been plenty of examples of NFL QBs being outplayed in college in a game or two. JJ has a long way to go in terms of development if he hopes to reach the 2nd round.
The stats don't mean much unless you are only analyzing the 1st half.
Which QB made the big plays that turned the game in 2nd half? I don't even think that OSU fans would dispute that. Sure, it was a team effort but JJ was leading the charge.
Stroud played well in the 1st half but was a ghost in the 2nd half.
I don't think any particular player "lead the charge" but if I was to point to one guy it would be Mike Sainristil. The defense played lights out in the 2nd half and he made the biggest play on the field and was the leader off of it.
JJ is a great kid and he's got gobs of potential but we have to remember he was still really raw last year. Jim Harbaugh comped him to Josh Allen recently and I think that's super accurate. Allen was super raw coming out of college but had physical tools like nobody else and the will to succeed. JJ has both of those but he's still super raw. He's gotta get better and hopefully thicker too.
He has NFL arm strength and athleticism and his processing, while it wasn't bad last year, should improve with another year under his belt.
I agree with this take. If Michigan has the season we're all hoping for, it'll be in part because JJ had a breakout performance and is a high enough draft pick that he won't have a serious decision to consider coming back.
We just don't know for sure. JJ could have the exact same year as last year but throw one fewer picks in the bowl game and we could be in the National Championship. Of course I hope he does take that step, but given how great the rest of the team is, we could still succeed even if JJ continues to be just an above average QB
Not necessarily. Justin Herbert was in a similar situation - clear first round pick after year 3 - stayed an additional year and it's worked out just fine for him. Everyone is different.
Also NIL wasn't even a factor in Herbert's decision. NIL is a game changer now. Seems like players are willing to stay in college longer because of it. JJ seems like a program guy. I could see him doing the same thing Herbert did.
If the goal is the NFL (it is) and he's projected as a 1st/2nd rounder then I'd imagine the risk of injury would push even a program guy towards declaring.
I don't see 20 guys getting drafted if that is the list. Could see Barner staying. Whichever of Jones/Barnhart doesn't start comes back. Hinton comes back. Not losing all 3 of McGregor, Stewart, Harrell.
- JJ McCarthy
- Blake Corum
- Donovan Edwards
- Roman Wilson
- Karsen Barnhart
- Trente Jones
- Ladarius Henderson
- Zak Zinter
- Trevor Keegan
- Drake Nugent
- Kris Jenkins
- Braiden McGregor
- Junior Colson
- Mike Sainristil
- Rod Moore
- Makari Paige
I winnowed it down to guys I'd realistically see getting drafted next year. I think we could easily have 11-14 guys drafted. I would guess more on the lower end of that range but you never know
Miles Hinton?
I think what hasn’t been talked about enough is the success Harbaugh has had in the portal. Good recruiting and some really good transfers at key positions has become an excellent formula. Have to believe his time n the NFL impacts his talent evaluation and fit much like free agency. Much like the best NFL teams are built through the draft the basis of Michigan’s recent success comes from quality recruiting with holes being plugged in portal. Across the board the quality of athlete on your side just looks different than it did 3-4 years ago.
Stars tend to set a higher floor rather than guarantee an NFL starter.
While it's evidently better to have more of those guys rather than fewer, it will be interesting to see how taking on a bigger roster of high-upside guys and developing them plays out.
NIL has kind of given Michigan an opportunity to have the BYU mission effect - where you can keep and develop some undervalued talent on the roster until they're 3* grown ass men rather than 5* boys - there's certainly some leveling to parity there.
I think the bigger roster allowed by NIL is going to be huge for Michigan, and other teams outside the Bama/Georgia/OSU 5-star cartel. Developing high ceiling guys is great, but there's also a certain percentage risk that they won't work out. As you said, the stars raise the floor.
If Michigan has more players, it means they're essentially buying more lottery tickets. Combine that with real strong player development (which Michigan has demonstrated in those recent class re-rankings), and you'll get enough guys to fill out a nationally-competitive roster most years. The downside is that you'll get more out-transfers too - look out Charlotte!
Is there anything stopping Bama/Georgia/OSU from also increasing roster size using the same loophole? Unfortunately I don't see that as an advantage that will last.
Yes, they can increase their rosters, but ultimately the 5 stars are going to want to actually get on the field, so I don't think it is terribly likely that Bama will have 100 ex 5 stars on their roster in the near future.
Same time, while they could use extra spots to load up on developmental high ceiling guys, I'm not clear why they would do so. It's higher-effort for them (players need more development), with less likelihood of results for each player. Additionally, those "scholarships" are coming from the NIL pot, which is a limited volume of money for every school. Do they want to spend their money on getting a higher quantity of guys who might pan out, or do they want to spend that money getting the 5 starts to stick around when they're getting 3rd/4th round draft grades after their third season? My guess is they'll invest in the latter, given the choice.
The ROI of spending money on the "high ceiling" kids isn't going to be super high for them, but will be higher for Michigan (and like-minded programs). That's my guess anyway.
Jake Butt, a former Wolverines tight end who called two Michigan games in 2022 for Big Ten Network, said he thinks Harbaugh’s team has “all the talent in the world,” but the challenge is for them to realize their full potential, and a key to that will be unleashing McCarthy more this year.
“I think what has harmed them is, it’s very easy for Michigan to run the ball 40 times a game and beat up on a bunch of opponents. But then you get to TCU and it was hard, tough sledding, and it took them awhile to start to rely on that pass game,” he said. “If you’re not maximizing J.J.’s throwing ability and play-making ability — it’s a little bit like Pat Mahomes (and obviously he’s one of one) — but they just let him make plays at times. I think J.J.’s capable of making some of those one-of-one types of plays, but the challenge is for them to let him do some of those in the games when you know you’re gonna win even though it doesn’t matter. Let him get those repetitions and build his confidence because he’ll need it when you have to play Georgia, Alabama or Ohio State in the Playoff.
“He’s as gifted as anybody in the country, and you’ve seen that at times. Even in his freshman year, one of his first games, he’s rolling right and launches it across the field — it’s a no-no for quarterbacks but if you have that kind of capability, you can do it. And you saw it in the TCU game. He made mistakes but that dude made a ton of plays too. It’s just that Michigan doesn’t ask that from him or need it from him, so you don’t see it consistently. I think they’ll really benefit from letting him loose, especially games that they’re winning, let him rep it in a game setting because that’s when you really build your confidence.”
They need to throw the ball early in games. Let JJ get his reps in before the score gets too lopsided where it looks like we're running up the score. Let JJ throw for 3 or 4 touchdowns then let Blake and Donovan run for 3-4 more.
Butt is quickly becoming one of my favorite analysts. Not a homer, just a real professional. His interview on Jansen's podcast was great. I don't think he'll be at BTN for too long and will have opportunities for bigger networks.
we should let him throw for 2, let blake and donovan get 2 each, reserve one for WJ and company, 1 for STs, and then make sure our new kicker gets his reps in to take us over 60 ppg. #strategy
People tend to forget that UM let JJ throw more than it seems during the season but he struggled mightily w connecting on the long ball. Had he connected on more of those the narrative would be very different going into this season.
It wouldn't change the number of attempts, which would still mean 60% run and 40% pass.
He didn't throw more than it seems.
This is the answer. You can have the best run game -- we did -- and if you get far enough, eventually a talented team, with time to prepare, is going to be able to stop it. To succeed at the highest levels, the offense has to be able to do whatever needs to be done at a high level. Our pass game needs plenty of live-game reps that matter in order for us to have a chance in the CFP.
Yes, stars matter. But coaching does as well. How many of these teams would Feldman or Wasserman straight-up pick over Michigan in a head-to-head matchup? 2? 3?
Wasserman is a major OSU slappy, so he would likely predict all of the teams on that list to beat UM. I expect Feldman (with no dog in the fight, so to speak) would probably pick three or four.
These numbers paint a very unflattering picture of the evaluation and development done by some of those teams (TAMU, Texas, Florida, Miami and Auburn) as they have mostly sucked ass on the field despite having oodles of talent to work with.
Alabama and Georgia are obvious choices. OSU is not because of recent history, uncertainty at QB, and The Game is in Ann Arbor this year with everyone returning. Beyond that I'd say USC is the only team that gives me pause because of their QB.
So 2 for sure with the possibility of a 3rd for me.
Bama is obviously talented and it can be u wise to count out Nick Saban BUT there QB room looks pretty bad.
Michigan has throttled an OSU team with a roster filled with 4 and 5 star guys the last two years. This is the best roster Harbaugh’s ever had as a college coach….of course they have the talent to win it all this season.
I couldn't read the article but twenty NFL picks in one draft seems...unlikely. I think UM can, and probably will, top last year's total of nine picks, but I think a more realistic range is probably eleven to thirteen picks.
The fact that UM is only 14th in high end talent but is still considered a very strong contender for the national title speaks volumes about the player evaluation and development by the staff. I only wish high school recruits would pay attention to these kind of reports.
With a whole season ahead of us, I would rank the likelihood of these guys leaving as such:
- JJ McCarthy: 50/50. Could be a 1st Rd pick coming off a national championship. Could be a Day 2 guy who wants to cement his legacy as a senior.
- Blake Corum: 100% gone after this year
- Donovan Edwards: 100% gone after this year
- Cornelius Johnson: Gone (eligibility run out)
- Roman Wilson: I'd lean towards around 25% chance he leaves. His size and probably lack of eye-popping numbers may put him in a situation like CJ was making last season. I'd lean towards expecting him back in 2024.
- AJ Barner: Probably coming back since he will not be the Top TE (he won't in '24 either). Maybe he wants to give the NFL a shot or start his pro career in something other than sports (can't really make a judgement on this one).
- Karsen Barnhart: One of him/Jones most likely gone
- Trente Jones: ^
- Ladarius Henderson: Gone (eligibility).
- Myles Hinton: 95% chance he is back if he doesn't unseat one of Jones/Barnhart. If he is able to do that, then we're looking at probably a 2nd round pick.
- Zak Zinter: Nearly 100% gone
- Trevor Keegan: Gone (eligibility and ability)
- Drake Nugent: Probably gone
- Kris Jenkins: 100% gone
- Braiden McGregor: He would need to have probably close to a double digit sack season and show much improvement in his lower body strength. I do think one of McGregor, Stewart, or Harrell leaves after this season.
- Josaiah Stewart: Out of these 3 Edge/OLB types I think he has the best chance to show out this year and leave for the league due to his already displayed pass-rushing abilities. If he can replicate that vs top competition, he'll be 1 and done here and I'm okay with that.
- Jaylen Harrell: He has and will continue to be a good player for us. The pass rushing element will not ever be good, and his agility isn't there to be projected as an NFL ILB. Most likely he's back for 2024 and can serve as a Josh Ross type player. Great program guy, heady, limited, but valuable.
- Junior Colson: If his mental lapses are fixed this year, he will be gone. If those are fixed also, watch out!
- Michael Barrett: Gone eligibility (sad face).
- Mike Sainristil: Gone, eligibility (double sad face).
- Rod Moore: Barring something crazy, Rod will be gone too after this year.
- Makari Paige: I see too much "boring safety" in him this season; which is an accomplishment. I expect Paige back to anchor the back part of the secondary in 2024 with one of the young guys.
At this very early point (a month from the opening game of 2023) I would estimate that we have on the low-end 12 players drafted and the high-end 15-16.
Well done.
I am so thrilled to call Michigan my alma mater - the football program is absolutely humming right now
Ari Wasserman isn't wrong when he says "stars matter," but they aren't all that matter. Football isn't just "who's got the best player?" Stars don't capture how the players have developed (except 5 stars which predict "sure things" maybe). Coaching matters - both development, strategy, and high-leverage decision making (how good are they at Madden?) And roster management is more than just how many stars you have. It doesn't matter how deep your QBs room or Receivers room is if your linemen are getting whipped, it doesn't matter how many stars your DL has if your DBs can't cover - and the difference between 4 stars and 3 stars can often be slim, and have diminishing predictive value.
Data driven predictions have their limits, i love baseball and basketball but football is a different beast. Stars matter. But so does everything else.
It shows that a combination of good talent and great experience can play better than a team with lots of great talent. The same is true of BB. Howard should look at this prescription and stop filling the roster with one-and-dones.
There’s only one team in America, maybe two, that I look at and say Michigan would need a lot of things to go right to beat them. That’s Georgia, and maybe Alabama, depending on how their QB situation plays out this season. Michigan can beat them with the talent and experience that this year's team brings in, but I'd have no issues saying they would a decided underdog and they'd need to play mistake-free football. Every other team in America, I’d say it’s a coin flip at worst.
Stars absolutely matter, but it’s not all that matters. Michigan has run roughshod in the second half for two years in a row against one of the top-3 most talented teams in America. With plenty of 3-4 star guys who OSU didn’t even know existed.
As long as Harbaugh is able to maximize and fully develop the talent that he does get, Michigan will be just fine. I do hope they’re able to start recruiting better across the board as that reduces the variability of taking a swing on high upside, but 3 star or low 4 star talent. But plenty of these guys have made massive contributions in beating OSU’s roster full of JV NFL talent the last two years.
Let’s just enjoy this upcoming season, as it could shape up to be one of the best we’ve had in recent memory.