Bold Prediction Time (SP+ Edition)
The impetus for this post is that this week has been full of both excessive pessimism and hopeful optimism on this board, with haughty statements about how we're going to look back at the end of the season and see how right you were in your perspective.
So it's time to put your Eeyore or Pollyana self on the record, via an end of season SP+ prediction. For reference, find below Michigan's final SP+ rankings (just overall offense and defense, nothing more specific) over Harbaugh's tenure, as well as their ranks after week 4 this season.
In the comments, a simple prediction of final offense and defense rankings is all we need. Whether you think everything sucks or everything's gonna be ok, put your money where your mouth is.
Year Off Def
2015 34 10
2016 35 3
2017 49 5
2018 25 9
2019 72 12
It's interesting (if depressing) to realize that the offense has never been very good under Harbaugh. This year is a huge disappointment (so far) but it wouldn't take that much change to get them back in the range his offenses have typically ended up. (Better TO luck would go a long way by itself).
So anyway, my prediction is Offense: 35 Defense: 15
September 26th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
It's amazing that this is what the #12 defense looks like. There must be a huge gulf between "top 10" and "top 5."
September 26th, 2019 at 1:40 PM ^
Maybe preseason stats haven't been fully factored out yet.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:40 PM ^
Think there's still got to be some preseason projection baked in here. I can't remember what week that falls off in SP+.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:44 PM ^
Pretty sure it's week 6 or 7 before they've got enough data to base it entirely off this year.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
Don't know which week either, 6 or 7 could be correct. I did read Connelly write this week that half of preseason numbers have been removed after week 4.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
The defense didn’t play poorly at all in either of the first two games. They were put in bad spots by offensive turnovers, and gave up points as a result. Plus a garbage time 80 yard drive against MTSU that wouldn’t factor into these rankings anyway. But they performed well.
Wisconsin pushed us around a bit, but that’s the first time I’d say we didn’t look like a top 10-15 unit.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:53 PM ^
A bit?
They stomped our defense into the ground. No point in sugarcoating anything. We have absolutely no D-Line right now and unless the true freshman improve enough in practice for the coaches to see fit to play them, we won't have a D-Line for the entire rest of the season.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:26 PM ^
There's a lot of justifiable complaints about Josh Gattis. Shaun Nua has somehow escaped it.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^
Gattis has dudes like Shea and DPJ to coach. Nua has dudes like Mason. It's hardly comparable.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
Exactly. Shaun Nua has fullbacks who converted 8 months ago and guys who were supposed to blow up last year but still haven't. Gattis has 5 stars across the board.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^
5 stars across the board? Uh no.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:57 PM ^
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22
You and I have a different opinion of "performed well".
343.7 yards per game allowed
4.96 yards per play
.318 3rd down conversion percentage
Sure it's early in the season, but that doesn't look like performing well.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:00 PM ^
Do you factor in the competition ?
If you have watched the 1st three games and think this defense is top 12 ....you should start watching a game you have some understanding about.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^
People should watch what they enjoy. They just shouldn't try to comment about it, as if they know something.
September 26th, 2019 at 7:42 PM ^
Except they played two awful offenses in those first two games
September 26th, 2019 at 4:51 PM ^
I’ve always had a hard time believing SP+. I still don’t really understand why it’s so important, either...last year we were #25, but we were so frustrating and ineffective moving the ball most of the time. It felt like most of the B1G was way ahead of us.
September 26th, 2019 at 7:46 PM ^
Way better than the old school yards per game rankings as they basically compare every game played by every team to each other or basically it filters out scheduling
September 26th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
Mineral King predicts Offense: 1, Defense: 1. My prediction? Pain.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:37 PM ^
I swear, the defense looks far worse than 12, thus far. Even with the short field issues in the first two games.
I use to get excited when the defense came on the field, looking forward to them destroying the opposing offense, now I'm just terrified.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:39 PM ^
S&P is a stupid formula if it thinks this is the #12 defense
September 26th, 2019 at 1:42 PM ^
As stated above, there’s a lot of preseason projection still baked in, which explains the ranking.
It also makes the 72 ranking sort of terrifying.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:28 PM ^
I want to see the link for these numbers so I can see where Maryland with Mike Locksley is at.
September 26th, 2019 at 4:47 PM ^
A formula that includes "preseason expectations" is even more stupid than I thought.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^
It doesn't think this is the #12 defense. SP+ isn't a ranking system (backward-looking). SP+ is a tool to predict scores of games (forward-looking). He specifically created a ranking system last year based on SP+ because SP+ was being misused which created an area of need for him to do so. What this says is that, relative to the teams played, Michigan's defense has performed at a level that sets expectations of them being the 12th best defense going forward. 2 caveats: Michigan did perform better than Wisconsin's opponents (that will change through the season or this loss won't look quite as bad) and preseason expectations are still being factored in because it makes his predictions more accurate.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:43 PM ^
I know SP+ normally phases out pre-season assumptions (which are in part dependent on last year's performance/returning talent) over the first few weeks of the season. Given the #12 ranking on the defense, I'm assuming there is still some of that baked into the results.
On the other hand, that #72 offense... woof.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:24 PM ^
72 is overranking the offense because of some garbage time touchdowns too.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:10 PM ^
SP+ filters out garbage time events, and I believe both Michigan TD drives in the Wisconsin game qualified as garbage time.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:42 PM ^
Well, we did gain 70 or so yards on the first drive and get no points, and then got screwed on the Bell call on our next drive, so it kind of evens out.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
Fancy stats are dumb. Just find a way to win.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
You might as well say "Just score more points than the other team"
September 26th, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^
Win the game
September 26th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
Offense will probably finish around 50 or 60, defense around 15-20 if I had to guess and we go 7-5 on the year. Not a good look, especially with what was supposed to be a deep, talented, experienced team we kept on hearing and expecting.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^
I don’t see this defense in the top 25. A one dimensional Wisconsin exposed UM’s defense and just think what a more balanced team with athletes on the outside is going to do.
Offense top 50
Defense around 40
It’s funny that UM had the 21st ranked scoring offense last season and now we have this.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:48 PM ^
0-32
D-17
September 26th, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^
Offense 45, Defense 22
September 26th, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
Well, considering that the SP+ ranking is currently factoring in pre-season predictions...
Defense: Definitely not the #12 defense right now based purely on on-field performance. I think they finish somewhere around the 35-40 mark on the year.
Offense: Almost definitely worse than #72 right now based purely on on-field performance. I think they finish somewhere around the 60-65 mark on the year.
Any way you slice it, the numbers are horribly ugly. Both sides of the ball need a real, pope-verified miracle right now.
September 26th, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
Offense - 38
Defense - 19
September 26th, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
The way Jedd Fisch is talked about around here, you would think that our 2015 and 2016 offenses would be quite a bit higher.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:19 PM ^
S&P is a formula. A nice formula that can give you a general idea. But it's not empirical truth. It can't take into account how a team looks when winning.
63-3 over Hawaii,
51-14 over UCF,
45-28 over Colorado,
49-10 over Penn St,
78-0 over Rutgers,
41-8 over Illinois,
32-23 over Michigan St (and the game looked no where near that close),
59-3 over Maryland,
and almost beating Ohio St in double overtime, which would have put Michigan in the BIG 10 Championship, and winning that into the Final 4, meet the test of the real world.
I would take Jedd Fisch now, immediately. And you'd see immediate improvement this weekend. I'd sure feel a lot better about the rest of the season too.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^
Also worth noting the 13 against Iowa and 17 against Ohio State in regulation that year. Fisch was fine, but benefits from a lot of rosy retrospection.
September 26th, 2019 at 3:45 PM ^
Feelingsball all the way.
In 2016 people were excited and focused on the stuff that worked. By 2018 fans were mad at the offense and focused on what didn't.
Jedd is fine but it's not like he's in high demand. Hasn't had an on-field gig since 2017.
September 26th, 2019 at 6:14 PM ^
He was promoted to head coach at UCLA in 2017. Then was hired by the Rams to work with the offense, a very good offense, and they were in the Super Bowl last year. And they're 3-0 this year.
And you're minimizing that?
September 26th, 2019 at 6:40 PM ^
Look, I liked Jedd, but he's an analyst who doesn't coach players on the field or call plays. Plenty of good coaches do that for a year while they find the next gig.
Not getting promoted by the Rams to an on-field job or landing an OC gig elsewhere for two years doesn't exactly scream rising star. That's especially true when teams are hiring anyone Sean McVay has shaken hands with.
Maybe the Fisch fanatics around here are right and the powers that be in the NCAA and NFL are wrong but it's pretty clear he's not that highly thought of among football people with hiring power.
September 26th, 2019 at 8:59 PM ^
He hasn't been there 2 years.
September 26th, 2019 at 5:59 PM ^
So Michigan goes double overtime and almost beat Ohio St, and there's still a problem with that?
September 26th, 2019 at 10:53 PM ^
Remember last year when it looked like the O line was turning the corner? I would take the Fisch offense with last year's line in a second.
He was handicapped playing with a Clappy line coached by Dim Trevno. They couldn't block any team with a pulse.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^
Link?
September 26th, 2019 at 2:15 PM ^
To what?
September 26th, 2019 at 2:33 PM ^
Where you got the numbers in the post.
September 26th, 2019 at 2:50 PM ^
Footballoutsiders.com has all SP+ numbers prior to this year. Now they’re on ESPN