Bill Connelly details our offensive woes
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/9/19/16332218/michigan-w…
Tidbit:
It gets even worse when the Wolverines generate scoring chances. Yards per play on first downs in the red zone: 1.1. They’ve gained zero or fewer yards in eight of 12 instances.
September 19th, 2017 at 1:43 PM ^
Who would've thought... apparently Zeke21 for one.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
Uggh! Thats just depressing.
But we knew this was a young team that was going to go through some growing pains, just have to hold onto our butts and watch for this team to get better in preparation for 2018.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:31 AM ^
How about we get better this Saturday?
September 19th, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
We'd be awesome playing in Canada with their spacious end zones (or whatever they call them up there). All kinds of room to run under those frozen ropes.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:08 AM ^
Not saying anything that hasn't already been said, but eventually, this offense will cost the team at least one game. Possibly two, and not unreasonable to ponder three games either.
Unless drastic improvement is made, of course. The team doesn't seem to have too many issues moving the ball down the field, but someone when they get into the red zone, it just shrivels up and dies.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
I'm no expert, but it apperas to me our offense is just too inconsistent. We get chunk plays (big run by Isaac, big reception by Black or Perry) that can eat up 20-30 yards. It's enough to move us down the field. But once the field is compressed, those opportunities are gone. At that point, we rely more on our O Line to dominate, and they aren't getting it done. Once our O Line starts improving, Red Zone won't be a problem.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^
"eventually, this offense will cost the team at least one game. Possibly two, and not unreasonable to ponder three games either."
Which is another way of saying Michigan should win between 9 and 11 games this season. Unless you think the defense or special teams will cost additional games.
I think this sort of crystallizes the frustration that many of us have with all the complaints. Just because the team isn't good enough to go undefeated doesn't mean it sucks.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^
Our tempered expecations will also allow the opportunity for the offense to surprise us with a few unexpectedly stellar performances, with glimpses of what this young talent will provide in 2018 and beyond. It's a work in progress, but we should be at least slightly encouraged by the fact that the offesne can't perform any... or much worse. Hopefully?
September 19th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
And this was the consensous of where the team would stand at the end of the year - anywhere from 8-11 wins. I don't know if people are spoiled, stoopid, unrealistic, or just plain trolls that won't ever be happy, but good Gawd, the hot takes are flying free!!
September 19th, 2017 at 10:14 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 10:15 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^
Going into season the national narrative on Michigan was this is a talented but VERY young team that will encounter growing pains as the break in the most new starters of any team in D1 football.
We beat Fliorida soundly so board takes a look at this fact - discards it as an unpleasant truth and talks itself into a Michigan national title run. Final four or bust baby....HERE WE COME!
Michigan wins next two games but does so in a less than convincing manner. Maybe because of the youth and the growing pains everybody in the world could see coming except the members of this blog.
So nothing has happened that wasnt expected to happen maybe with the exception of the convincing Florida win and now we're all gnashing our teeth and rendering our garments over the offense sputtering in the red zone. WTF everybody?
3-0 folks. And most likely going to be 4-0 in less than week.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 10:30 AM ^
I think people were hoping for more out of the oline. Its been 3 years of drevno/harbaugh coaching. I know the recruiting before on the oline wasn't great but at some point you want to see a step forward in just simple fundamentals.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:03 AM ^
But it's year 2 for Onwenu and Bredeson, and basically year 2 for Ulizio since he missed a year with injuries, right? Kugler is a first time starter and Cole is position switching again.
Year 3 of Drevno/Harbaugh saw an average Andrew Luck at QB:
Andrew Luck: 56.3 Completion Percentage- 2575 Yards- 13 TD- 4 INT- 143.5 Rating
Year 4 of Drevno/Harbaugh saw a Heisman caliber Luck at QB:
Andrew Luck: 70.7 Completion Percentage- 3338 Yards- 32 TD- 8 INT- 170.2 Rating
I'm not saying Speight is going to make that leap, but please be patient everybody. Rome wasn't built in a day.
https://www.ninersnation.com/2011/6/12/2219516/jim-harbaugh-at-stanford…
September 19th, 2017 at 11:30 AM ^
Patience is right.
In the patchwork 2105 class, Harbaugh had three OL: Runyan, Newsome, and Ulizio. Newsome played in 2015 and was a starter last season--he'd probably be a good player on this season's line if not for his injury. Ulizio is starting as a redshirt sophomore, and Runyan is probably the 6th or 7th OL (depending on whether he's ahead of or behind Ruiz).
In 2016, M added Bredeson, Onwenu, and Spanellis. Already two of those guys are starters and Bredeson started most of 2016. Reports on Spanellis--who was a last-minute Plan B guy after the Hamilton flip--suggest he'll be a useful backup.
In 2017, we added Ruiz, Steuber, Filiaga, and Honigford. Ruiz is already playing and looks set to become the long-term center starting next year.
Which OL recruits are people dissatisfied with, exactly? Who isn't being developed properly? It seems to me like OL is coming along just fine. It's just that people want to fast-forward to 2018 and 2019 when all these guys are third- and fourth-year players.
September 19th, 2017 at 1:57 PM ^
Please take these rational, coherent thoughts elsewhere. Not wanted here! And take ST3 with you.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
I have no idea why people were expecting this OL to be better. It was the biggest red flag for the entirety of the offseason. By far. They lost a lot of experience, and were replacing it with very young, unproven players, from middling recruiting pedigrees. The people expecting Harbaugh/Drevno to turn a bunch of guys 2-3 years out of HS, Mason Cole, and the one remaining member of Hoke's disasterous 2013 OL class into an upgrade on last year's OL were quite literally insane.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:29 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:01 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 2:55 PM ^
when M fans discuss OL play. While it is a pleasant mirage, it turns out that experience and age really do matter on the OL.
I hope someday that M will again field a truly dominant OL. It is every offseason wet-dream. And It has been a long while . . . .
September 19th, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^
Last seasons CFP participants and the experience rank (Phil Steele)
Washington - 42/128
Clemson - 101/128
Alabama - 116/128
Ohio State - 128/128
3 of 4 playoff teams last year were in the bottom 1/4 of all CFB in experience.
Making the playoffs with an inexperienced team is obviously far from impossible.
September 19th, 2017 at 2:03 PM ^
Not really sure total team experience is the best measure. Alabama gets 4/5 star talent, turns them into pros that leave college early and reloads (or jettison's the talent that doesn't develop). I'd expect them to be young as an overall team.
Washington is the only team that hasn't been a top tier team ought of that group. Interestingly, they had far and away the most experience.
September 20th, 2017 at 7:58 AM ^
"Not really sure total team experience is the best measure."
The Phil Steele experience measure isn't exactly total team experience. It is:
Number of senior starters.
Number of seniors on 2 deep.
Career starts Offensive Line
% Returning Offensive Yards
% Returning Tackles
"Alabama gets 4/5 star talent, turns them into pros that leave college early and reloads (or jettison's the talent that doesn't develop)."
...and we recruit better than Clemson.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
I find myself simultaneously worrying and telling myself that its too early to worry. These young guys should grow exponetially as they get battle tested. I don't think 3 games is enough, especially if they haven't tasted success much yet.
If big lineup changes start happening, or we start running all curls every other 1st down, then I think its time to panic. Until then, we can try to remain calm knowing that Isaac is a load, Speight will get us mostly in the right plays, left side of the line is above average, and Onwenu is still 350 lbs.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:37 AM ^
Be happy.
September 19th, 2017 at 10:43 AM ^
Are there numbers out there that look at success in running between the tackles vs. outside? I would be interested in the success rate of our inside run game (seems particularly bad).
September 19th, 2017 at 10:47 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^
I ain't even worried.
I mean, I think that unless we're lucky (and I think luck is really underestimated around here), we'll lose one or two of OSU/Wiscy/suddenly-harder-than-anticipated-remaining-field, but that's pretty much what I expected before the season.
If we lose 4 in the regular season, depending on circumstances, injuries, etc. I will be concerned. But at 3-0? Not even worried.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:04 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 11:04 AM ^
I'm glad he mentioned how tricky our schedule has been. Yes, I am aware that this isn't a great offense. The youth and inexperience is much more evident on this side of the ball. I will say, however, that the defenses we have faced so far have each been good. Florida is a mess on offense, but they are still deserving of a top 25 spot because of their defense. Cincinnati is a bad team, but wouldn't Luke Fickell have a slight advantage having schemed against us the last couple of years? Also I have a sneaking suspicion that they were looking ahead to our game while playing Austin Peay. This doesn't excuse our play, but it can make a young and struggling offense look worse. Lastly, our performance against Air Force didn't surprise me. They are a consistently good and tricky team that seems to always have upper classmen filling out their two deep. We were an inch and a bad holding call away from blowing that game open. If Ty scores on either of those touchdown runs, we'd be looking at a completely different game.
Our offense is going through growing pains right now. I haven't mentioned Speight because we've all seen what he's done so far. Some of it is clearly on him. A lot of it I would put on the receivers not getting seperation or simply the lack of chemistry he seems to have with the younger receivers. We'll be fine as the season rolls on. This week is scary, but I have a feeling that the pickles are gonna start falling out of the jar.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:10 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 2:09 PM ^
Isn't that more of a 3 and 1 solution? Doesn't seem like that is the crux of the problem.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:20 AM ^
S&P+ overachievers (min: 2 games)
- Mississippi State (+29.3 points per game above projections)
- Air Force (+28.9)
September 19th, 2017 at 11:20 AM ^
S&P+ overachievers (min: 2 games)
- Mississippi State (+29.3 points per game above projections)
- Air Force (+28.9)
September 19th, 2017 at 11:34 AM ^
I know that Speight's accuracy is not great, Bob. A few darts, but really bad misses in high-leverage moments.
I know that we have really tall pass-catchers whose height we haven't exploited.
I know that Ulizio has struggled more than he has succeeded. (I also know that losing Devery Hamilton and missing on Isaiah Wilson have been really bad for the program. Not going to touch on the Swenson stuff because man I just don't know)
I know that Evans has been the most disappointing player re: preseason expectations, even more than Speight.
I know that we have less-talented experience and less-experienced talent at QB. Apparently we need talented experience. Trusting, I guess, that Peters' spring game was a mirage. Speight's clearly wasn't.
I don't know that our OL is so much greener than that of most teams. Two seniors, one junior, and two sophomores.
I don't know if there are too many cooks in the kitchen when it comes to play-calling. Probably it will take more time, but I keep wondering of Harbaugh needs to have a Beilein Moment and help Drevno and Hamilton get "promotions" elsewhere. Keep Frey as the OL coach, make a Don Brown hire (i.e., look up who has the best offenses and check in on his availability) for OC, and then use the other staff position on a Beyonce RB coach.
I don't know that our WR's have been getting great separation. All the TV director fails.
I don't know what's going on with Wheatley and Bunting.
So yeah.
September 19th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^
I'd love to see the TE's featured more in these redzone possessions. Michigan has FIVE (5) TE'S That I think are matchup problems for defenses.
September 19th, 2017 at 11:58 AM ^
or at least that's what brian thinks
September 19th, 2017 at 11:59 AM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:04 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:21 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 12:21 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^
September 19th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^
I'm hoping we get by Purdue. Then use the bye week to really get cooking.