Is the BigTen Down This Year?
I suppose we'll soon find out, but the Big Ten might be having a down year. Massey has a composite ranking of 99 different rankings and the Big Ten checks in at 4th and the MAC is in last place.
1. SEC
2. Big12
3. Pac 12
4. Big Ten
5. ACC
6. AA
7. Sun Belt
8. FBS Independent
9. Mountain West
10. Conference USA
11. MAC
Here is how the BigTen is ranked:
Great teams (top 10)
#2 Michigan
#3 Ohio State
#8 Penn State
Good teams (11-30)
#24 Illinois
Okay teams (31-64)
#31 Minnesota
#40 Purdue
#43 Maryland
#45 Iowa
#53 Wisconsin
Trash teams (65-130)
#65 Michigan State
#81 Indiana
#83 Nebraska
#102 Rutgers
#115 Northwestern
I've heard people say the Big12 is trash this year, but look at them:
Great teams (top 10)
#4 TCU
#7 Kansas State
Good teams (11-30)
#12 Texas
#25 Texas Tech
Okay teams (31-64)
#36 Oklahoma
#37 Baylor
#41 Oklahoma State
#48 Kansas
#63 West Virginia
#64 Iowa State
Trash teams (65-130)
None
The Big 12 has no absolute trash teams. Their worst team in fact won on the road at Iowa who nearly won a division in our conference.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^
No.
This is the first year ever we have two playoff teams. We have 3 elite teams and a lot of solid/ good teams. This post is either Big 12 slappy or simply 🤡 stuff. Wild dunesman- usually you bring your A game, but I would argue this is some of your worst.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
NIL/transfer portal has made the B1G the new SEC.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
Indy, the rankings are based on the data and metrics.
Are you accusing Massey of being a Big 12 slappy?
Not sure how a summary of mostly objective data makes for a bad or faulty conclusion.
It's pretty clear that the Big Ten had a handful of really bad teams this year...while the Big 12 did not.
December 25th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^
If you go by how conferences are performing in bowl games, there’s only one conference who is 0-2 as of today, the mighty SEC.
While there are a few caveats, comparing the overall record of P5 conferences in bowl games is one way of seeing how good or bad an overall conference is at the end of the season.
December 24th, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
First question is what sport is the OP talking about, can’t be football as there are two teams in the playoffs
December 24th, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
The elite teams of a conference are the standard-bearers. We have 14 teams, so to have two truly ‘trash’ teams does not make our conference inferior. One notable issue, besides the obvious two superior teams in our conference that are markedly better than anyone in the Big 12 conference, is the arbitrary determination of okay vs trash. While I chuckle at msu being considered ‘trash’, the cutoff of #64 being okay (Iowa State) and #65 being trash (MSU) is anything but analytical. I admit, I came on strong and too harsh, which I am prone to do.
December 24th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
To be fair I made my trash rule of MSU first (basically bottom half) before looking at the B12 rankings.
December 24th, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
And that determination - I have to respect 😂
December 24th, 2022 at 4:03 PM ^
While I agree that msu is always trash no matter how they're ranked, they are in the top half. There are 131 teams, so 1-65 is top half, 66-131 is bottom half.
December 24th, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
#Tuckcomin
December 24th, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
Wildbackdunesman (op):
I gotta say it's an indictment on humanity that this post has so many negs. what i mean is this -
this thread, as I'm posting this reply, has 50 posts with some strong support for both sides debating your question. And there is no "right" answer here because it depends how you define "strength of conference" which is an argument that is as resolvable as "Who's the greatest athlete of all time?" And EVERYONE ALWAYS WANTS TO BE RIGHT... Who the fuck cares?!?!? And on 2022 A.D. Planet Earth there are so many ways for so many people to be loud and create divisiveness and factions.
So to you, MGoFriend: I respect your very objective statistical analysis, and your question that led to an entertaining (for me) dialogue with great debate and exchange of ideas. It's nice in a world that so often feels more full of insults instead of seeking understanding. I know, it's a damn argument about something inane and not the kind of hot button issue our world needs to dialogue about to heal itself, but it's not nothing 👏
sincerely,
stoned philosopher / divorced dad who's passing time til the kiddos get here to open their stockings tomorrow :)
December 25th, 2022 at 7:06 AM ^
And there is no "right" answer here because it depends how you define "strength of conference" which is an argument that is as resolvable as "Who's the greatest athlete of all time?"
That's exactly why I negged it. OP is a waste of board space.
December 24th, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^
The Big Ten is absolute trash this year, which is a big reason the top two teams are ranked so highly. I have faith Michigan is legitimately the number 2 team in the country, but you are in denial if you don’t think the Big Ten was super easy for them to work through. It may have been some of the worst QB play in conference history and there were some brutally bad non conference losses for the Big Ten.
December 24th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
Wut? Because of B1G teams being trash, the top two teams are ranked so high. GTFO.
December 24th, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^
Yes, see Clemson over the past decade. When you have a conference you can just beat up on every week you get two top ranked teams. Because at the end of the day the voters only care that you don’t lose. So having a trash conference helps significantly, especially if it is trash but has a reputation, rightfully, for being great.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Michigan wins in the semifinals. But that does not mean the entire Western Division of the Big Ten was not terrible. And the Eastern Division has Rutgers, MD, and Indiana. This is a really bad conference this year. It happens on occasion that a conference has a really bad year and this is one of those years. The OP’s stats show what we all talked about the entire year, let’s not change that narrative because somehow you think it Makes Michigan look better heading into the playoffs,
December 24th, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^
Astute. Nice to see strong reasoned support for your contrarian perspective, instead of the internet standard of TYPE SHOUTING im-rubber-you're-glue-my-view-better-cause-obviously type arguments. Here: I'll buy you a fake drink... cheers 🍻.
💯 agree w your take here.
December 24th, 2022 at 5:43 PM ^
The only thing I challenged was you saying B1G being down makes the top of the B1G looks better and they actually are not. If that is not what you meant, I take back what I said.
December 24th, 2022 at 11:26 PM ^
Oh no, not at all. I believe Michigan and OSU are legit top 5 teams. I am not convinced that PSU is a top ten team, but I am not sure.
December 26th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
A significant portion of team’s stats and thus their computer rankings are based on conference play. So, ranking of conferences has 1/3 rd non-conference and 2/3 rds conference play. So, that 2/3 rds leads to either the narrative that a team is in a weak conference or that the conference is tough because the teams all beat each other up. The bowl games and playoffs are a much better indicator of conference “strength”, but it doesn’t matter. Of the 4 best teams, 3 end their seasons with a loss. And bowl games have to be looked over carefully as to the strength of an opponent.
The 12 game playoff will give us a much better indication of true “conference” strength, but, like the old mythical National Championships, will remain open to a public debate.
December 25th, 2022 at 6:08 AM ^
I’m my mind, a down conference has 1 team at the top and a whole lot of also rans that don’t distinguish themselves. It’s really about strength at the top. Having more meh teams than bad teams doesn’t make a conference stronger.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:25 PM ^
The Big Ten isn’t playing TCU. We’re playing TCU.
December 24th, 2022 at 4:32 PM ^
This! The Big Ten is terrible and that has no impact on Michigan’s game, so people can stop being defensive about this post.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^
The Big Ten was definitely top-heavy this year, there's no doubt about that. Michigan went undefeated, OSU lost only to Michigan, and PSU lost only to Michigan and OSU.
But it shouldn't mean anything for our game, because we did beat the two other good teams, decisively.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^
I agree. If UM, OSU and PSU don't run the table, there would be a lot more Big Ten teams in the "good team bracket" and an overall redistribution of the table above.
December 24th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^
Move those three over, and TCU has at least 2 losses, with everyone else having 2–3 more than current. Any one of our top three would kill TCU. We'll prove it in a week.
The B1G West clown show is a weakness, but I don't think it reflects on the conference as a whole so much as it reflects upon the chaos of parity with a dash of random stupidity.
December 24th, 2022 at 7:08 PM ^
Knocks on wood three times
December 24th, 2022 at 12:36 PM ^
I like that you conveniently made #64 the cutoff point between “okay” and “trash”. No cherry-picking there!
December 24th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
It does make MSU trash, which is
1) hilarious
2) true
December 24th, 2022 at 12:39 PM ^
Below the 50th percentile
December 24th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
Something something... msu always a trash team... Something something
December 24th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
How can you ask re the status when the Big 10 has 2 teams in the playoff? If the CFP was honest, OSU would have been ranked 3rd. The SEC has been ranked high largely due to Alabama’s success, and secondarily, Georgia’s. League rankings are not about how good are their worst teams, but their best teams.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:43 PM ^
No. Here is how they look side by side. Big 12 only ahead of big 10 in 3 places.
December 24th, 2022 at 4:18 PM ^
And just to complete the picture, I did the table with all P5 conferences.
Of the top 3 teams in each conference, Big Ten is the strongest (i.e., best average rank)
If you count the top 5 teams in each conference, SEC and Pac 12 are the two strongest, respectively (albeit the Pac 12 by a very small margin over the Big Ten - average ranking of 13.2 vs 13.6).
Top to bottom? The rankings say is SEC and that it's not close.
So is the Big Ten down this year? I think the Big Ten West is down this year. Where we usually have a couple of top 25 teams from the west and one that is usually around the mid-teens, this year we have Illinois at 24, Minnehaha at 31, and Purdue at 40. Instead, they ended up thoroughly mediocre. The East was also let down by not having another team around the tail end of the rankings (I blame sparty for sucking, yet thank them for sucking).
December 24th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^
This isn't public schools. We aren't ranked by the lowest performers. The SEC for years has had 1-4 good to great teams and a lot of trash.
I'm good with it though much of this season was a yawner. WHICH I'M FINE WITH!
December 24th, 2022 at 1:51 PM ^
This is much more like a charter school situation where everyone (including the CFP committee) gets to create their own criteria for success.
Agreed. The SEC has historically been Alabama plus one other and everyone else rides their coattails. Everyone buys in including, unfortunately, a lot of B1G fans.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
Statistics in football are valuable, but should be taken with a grain of salt, as the sample sizes are very small, and there's no easy way of comparing apples to apples between conferences, as there are few to no crossover games, and circumstances such as weather or minor injuries can drastically swing performances one way or another.
For example: the B1G has more schools than the Big12.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
There was a circular reasoning mentioned somewhere I heard that if you continue to vote the 2, 3 and 4 loss SEC teams in the top 25 and leave out the 2, 3, 4 loss B1G teams from the top 25, you can manipulate the SoS, FPI, etc. Despite teams looking equal on the field like USC (NTUSC), Ole Miss, Miss St. and Florida early in the year. Compare those schools and how many weeks they have been or were ranked vs. Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, and Maryland and it is glaringly different.
December 24th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
It's a down year for the middle of the conference, that's for sure. Usually we have a solid middle-class, so to speak, but this year not so much.
It is interesting that the metrics seem to like the middle tier of the B1G better than the polls/eye test. Maybe they're decent in a non-flashy way? But it surprises me that we have so many teams in the ~30-50ish range; I certainly would have ranked those teams lower if I was doing a 1-132 ranking...
December 24th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
There is a serious issue which is what's the Big Ten's best non-conference win this year? Pretty clearly OSU over that fraudulent Notre Dame team, right? After that...PSU winning at Auburn? Goodish Group of 5 teams like SMU or Ohio?
December 24th, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
UM over TCU on NYE. (NCG is not this year. 😉)
December 24th, 2022 at 7:15 PM ^
Knocks on wood three times
December 24th, 2022 at 1:04 PM ^
Their bottom is definitely better than the B1G. They probably have more good teams in the middle than the B1G. I think the criticism, which I also think is valid, is that they're mostly teams in the middle and they don't have to play a great team. I realize KSU is ranked high, but that seems like it's because they beat TCU which pushed them up because before they were more in the middle. They also weren't crushing teams.
OSU and Michigan and even PSU to some extent were absolutely smacking teams, while TCU played most of their games very close.
December 24th, 2022 at 1:09 PM ^
I remember Brian described QB play in the B1G as “abysmal” on the podcast. He’s right, and that has been a factor.
December 25th, 2022 at 12:04 AM ^
It's crazy to think that QB play in the B1G was abysmal when the list of QBs includes: JJ, CJ Stroud, Taulia Tagovailoa, Aidan O' Connell, Sean Clifford, Tanner Morgan, and I will throw Payton Thorne and Tommy DeVito in there for kicks. That's more than half the conference teams having a decent to really good QB.
December 24th, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^
B12 has a bunch of mediocre teams playing each other propping up their rankings. Kind of like what ACC does. I wouldn't read too much into it.
December 24th, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
The biggest issue with the B1G this year is that are few well rounded teams. Outside of PSU, OSU, and Michigan, there aren't really any teams with both an above average offense and defense. There are teams with good defense and bad offenses and teams with decent offenses and bad defenses then teams that are bad at both
December 24th, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
To hell with the rest of the conference.
December 24th, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
To hell with everyone. Beat the Horny Toads and then the HogwashDogs!
December 24th, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
SEC 0-2 in bowl games!!