Is the BigTen Down This Year?

Submitted by wildbackdunesman on December 24th, 2022 at 12:17 PM

I suppose we'll soon find out, but the Big Ten might be having a down year.  Massey has a composite ranking of 99 different rankings and the Big Ten checks in at 4th and the MAC is in last place.

1. SEC
2. Big12
3. Pac 12
4. Big Ten
5. ACC
6. AA
7. Sun Belt
8. FBS Independent
9. Mountain West
10. Conference USA
11. MAC

Here is how the BigTen is ranked:
 

Great teams (top 10)
#2 Michigan
#3 Ohio State
#8 Penn State

Good teams (11-30)
#24 Illinois

Okay teams (31-64)
#31 Minnesota
#40 Purdue
#43 Maryland
#45 Iowa
#53 Wisconsin

Trash teams (65-130)
#65 Michigan State
#81 Indiana
#83 Nebraska
#102 Rutgers
#115 Northwestern

I've heard people say the Big12 is trash this year, but look at them:

Great teams (top 10)
#4 TCU
#7 Kansas State

Good teams (11-30)
#12 Texas
#25 Texas Tech

Okay teams (31-64)
#36 Oklahoma
#37 Baylor
#41 Oklahoma State
#48 Kansas
#63 West Virginia
#64 Iowa State

Trash teams (65-130)
None
 

The Big 12 has no absolute trash teams. Their worst team in fact won on the road at Iowa who nearly won a division in our conference.

 

LINK

Indy Pete - Go Blue

December 24th, 2022 at 12:21 PM ^

No.

This is the first year ever we have two playoff teams. We have 3 elite teams and a lot of solid/ good teams. This post is either Big 12 slappy or simply 🤡 stuff. Wild dunesman- usually you bring your A game, but I would argue this is some of your worst. 

trueblueintexas

December 25th, 2022 at 11:24 AM ^

If you go by how conferences are performing in bowl games, there’s only one conference who is 0-2 as of today, the mighty SEC. 

https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2022-12-24/2022-23-conference-bowl-records-scores-updates-through-college-football-playoff

While there are a few caveats, comparing the overall record of P5 conferences in bowl games is one way of seeing how good or bad an overall conference is at the end of the season.

Indy Pete - Go Blue

December 24th, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^

The elite teams of a conference are the standard-bearers. We have 14 teams, so to have two truly ‘trash’ teams does not make our conference inferior.  One notable issue, besides the obvious two superior teams in our conference that are markedly better than anyone in the Big 12 conference, is the arbitrary determination of okay vs trash.  While I chuckle at msu being considered ‘trash’, the cutoff of #64 being okay (Iowa State) and #65 being trash (MSU) is anything but analytical.  I admit, I came on strong and too harsh, which I am prone to do.

Z

December 24th, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^

Wildbackdunesman (op):

I gotta say it's an indictment on humanity that this post has so many negs.  what i mean is this -

this thread, as I'm posting this reply, has 50 posts with some strong support for both sides debating your question.  And there is no "right" answer here because it depends how you define "strength of conference" which is an argument that is as resolvable as "Who's the greatest athlete of all time?"  And EVERYONE ALWAYS WANTS TO BE RIGHT... Who the fuck cares?!?!?  And on 2022 A.D. Planet Earth there are so many ways for so many people to be loud and create divisiveness and factions.

So to you, MGoFriend: I respect your very objective statistical analysis, and your question that led to an entertaining (for me) dialogue with great debate and exchange of ideas.  It's nice in a world that so often feels more full of insults instead of seeking understanding.  I know, it's a damn argument about something inane and not the kind of hot button issue our world needs to dialogue about to heal itself, but it's not nothing 👏 

sincerely,

stoned philosopher / divorced dad who's passing time til the kiddos get here to open their stockings tomorrow :)

 

 

maquih

December 25th, 2022 at 7:06 AM ^

And there is no "right" answer here because it depends how you define "strength of conference" which is an argument that is as resolvable as "Who's the greatest athlete of all time?" 

That's exactly why I negged it.  OP is a waste of board space.

 

vablue

December 24th, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^

The Big Ten is absolute trash this year, which is a big reason the top two teams are ranked so highly.  I have faith Michigan is legitimately the number 2 team in the country, but you are in denial if you don’t think the Big Ten was super easy for them to work through.  It may have been some of the worst QB play in conference history and there were some brutally bad non conference losses for the Big Ten. 

vablue

December 24th, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^

Yes, see Clemson over the past decade.  When you have a conference you can just beat up on every week you get two top ranked teams.  Because at the end of the day the voters only care that you don’t lose.  So having a trash conference helps significantly, especially if it is trash but has a reputation, rightfully, for being great.

Don’t get me wrong, I think Michigan wins in the semifinals.  But that does not mean the entire Western Division of the Big Ten was not terrible.  And the Eastern Division has Rutgers, MD, and Indiana.  This is a really bad conference this year.  It happens on occasion that a conference has a really bad year and this is one of those years.  The OP’s stats show what we all talked about the entire year, let’s not change that narrative because somehow you think it Makes Michigan look better heading into the playoffs,

Z

December 24th, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^

Astute.  Nice to see strong reasoned support for your contrarian perspective, instead of the internet standard of TYPE SHOUTING im-rubber-you're-glue-my-view-better-cause-obviously type arguments.  Here: I'll buy you a fake drink... cheers 🍻.

 

💯 agree w your take here.

burtcomma

December 26th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^

A significant portion of team’s stats and thus their computer rankings are based on conference play.  So, ranking of conferences has 1/3 rd non-conference and 2/3 rds conference play.  So, that 2/3 rds leads to either the narrative that a team is in a weak conference or that the conference is tough because the teams all beat each other up.  The bowl games and playoffs are a much better indicator of conference “strength”, but it doesn’t matter.  Of the 4 best teams, 3 end their seasons with a loss.  And bowl games have to be looked over carefully as to the strength of an opponent.

The 12 game playoff will give us a much better indication of true “conference” strength, but, like the old mythical National Championships, will remain open to a public debate.

jmblue

December 24th, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^

The Big Ten was definitely top-heavy this year, there's no doubt about that.  Michigan went undefeated, OSU lost only to Michigan, and PSU lost only to Michigan and OSU.

But it shouldn't mean anything for our game, because we did beat the two other good teams, decisively.

JHumich

December 24th, 2022 at 1:22 PM ^

Move those three over, and TCU has at least 2 losses, with everyone else having 2–3 more than current. Any one of our top three would kill TCU. We'll prove it in a week.

The B1G West clown show is a weakness, but I don't think it reflects on the conference as a whole so much as it reflects upon the chaos of parity with a dash of random stupidity.

Dailysportseditor

December 24th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^

How can you ask re the status when the  Big 10 has 2 teams in the playoff? If the CFP was honest, OSU would have been ranked 3rd.  The SEC has been ranked high largely due to Alabama’s success, and secondarily, Georgia’s.  League rankings are not about how good are their worst teams, but their best teams.

 

oriental andrew

December 24th, 2022 at 4:18 PM ^

And just to complete the picture, I did the table with all P5 conferences. 

Of the top 3 teams in each conference, Big Ten is the strongest (i.e., best average rank) 

If you count the top 5 teams in each conference, SEC and Pac 12 are the two strongest, respectively (albeit the Pac 12 by a very small margin over the Big Ten - average ranking of 13.2 vs 13.6). 

Top to bottom? The rankings say is SEC and that it's not close. 

So is the Big Ten down this year? I think the Big Ten West is down this year. Where we usually have a couple of top 25 teams from the west and one that is usually around the mid-teens, this year we have Illinois at 24, Minnehaha at 31, and Purdue at 40. Instead, they ended up thoroughly mediocre. The East was also let down by not having another team around the tail end of the rankings (I blame sparty for sucking, yet thank them for sucking). 

TeslaRedVictorBlue

December 24th, 2022 at 12:44 PM ^

This isn't public schools. We aren't ranked by the lowest performers. The SEC for years has had 1-4 good to great teams and a lot of trash.

I'm good with it though much of this season was a yawner. WHICH I'M FINE WITH!

turtleboy

December 24th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^

Statistics in football are valuable, but should be taken with a grain of salt, as the sample sizes are very small, and there's no easy way of comparing apples to apples between conferences, as there are few to no crossover games, and circumstances such as weather or minor injuries can drastically swing performances one way or another. 

For example: the B1G has more schools than the Big12.

NFG

December 24th, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^

There was a circular reasoning mentioned somewhere I heard that if you continue to vote the 2, 3 and 4 loss SEC teams in the top 25 and leave out the 2, 3, 4 loss B1G teams from the top 25, you can manipulate the SoS, FPI, etc. Despite teams looking equal on the field like USC (NTUSC), Ole Miss, Miss St. and Florida early in the year. Compare those schools and how many weeks they have been or were ranked vs. Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, and Maryland and it is glaringly different.

ShadowStorm33

December 24th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^

It's a down year for the middle of the conference, that's for sure. Usually we have a solid middle-class, so to speak, but this year not so much.

It is interesting that the metrics seem to like the middle tier of the B1G better than the polls/eye test. Maybe they're decent in a non-flashy way? But it surprises me that we have so many teams in the ~30-50ish range; I certainly would have ranked those teams lower if I was doing a 1-132 ranking...

enlightenedbum

December 24th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^

There is a serious issue which is what's the Big Ten's best non-conference win this year?  Pretty clearly OSU over that fraudulent Notre Dame team, right?  After that...PSU winning at Auburn?  Goodish Group of 5 teams like SMU or Ohio?

NJblue2

December 24th, 2022 at 1:04 PM ^

Their bottom is definitely better than the B1G. They probably have more good teams in the middle than the B1G. I think the criticism, which I also think is valid, is that they're mostly teams in the middle and they don't have to play a great team. I realize KSU is ranked high, but that seems like it's because they beat TCU which pushed them up because before they were more in the middle. They also weren't crushing teams. 

OSU and Michigan and even PSU to some extent were absolutely smacking teams, while TCU played most of their games very close.

Durham Blue

December 25th, 2022 at 12:04 AM ^

It's crazy to think that QB play in the B1G was abysmal when the list of QBs includes: JJ, CJ Stroud, Taulia Tagovailoa, Aidan O' Connell, Sean Clifford, Tanner Morgan, and I will throw Payton Thorne and Tommy DeVito in there for kicks.  That's more than half the conference teams having a decent to really good QB.

njvictor

December 24th, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^

The biggest issue with the B1G this year is that are few well rounded teams. Outside of PSU, OSU, and Michigan, there aren't really any teams with both an above average offense and defense. There are teams with good defense and bad offenses and teams with decent offenses and bad defenses then teams that are bad at both