BIGCG: CFB Nerds Predict Close Slog
Reasons:
1) Iowa has a really good run defense
2) Michigan’s play should come down to earth a bit.
3) Michigan might start out slow due to last week’s emotional triumph.
Thoughts: This seems right. Our fans are still reveling in victory (understandably) and talking about recruits. The coaches are still talking about OSU. Can’t even imagine UM’s players. Iowa got back to work the next day to prepare for Michigan, according to reports. I could definitely see an uncomfortable game brewing.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
Play our top athletic offensive weapons enough and target their abilities over and over again.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:16 PM ^
We're gonna kill em
November 30th, 2021 at 6:24 PM ^
That’s what OSU said
November 30th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
Man, weren't we JUST talking about having a funeral for BPONE?
November 30th, 2021 at 6:54 PM ^
OSU has a soft defense.
Michigan does not.
December 1st, 2021 at 12:06 AM ^
Lol. From a post BY YOU prior to the game:
You are right. You can tell by all the downvotes you get from the mindless that don't really understand football. Our talent level is lacking. And our discipline is lacking because our coaching is lacking. Watch the discipline that OSU plays with next week. They have talent , discipline ,and coaching. The slappies that have their heads up their asses will see the gap between us and the elite.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:28 PM ^
I want to see more Donovan Edwards in space this week
November 30th, 2021 at 7:19 PM ^
I like isolating him on their big linebacker and making him uncomfortable from the beginning. Make him unsure of what's coming and the running lanes open up
November 30th, 2021 at 5:33 PM ^
As Rich Eisen said on his show, Iowa has historically been a season ruiner for Michigan. I think our team can beat them, let's just hope they're not still drunk on the Ohio State victory or looking ahead to the CFP.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
Iowa has caught us in trap games in the regular season (aside from when they were ranked #1 in 1985). This is the Big Ten title game. I don’t see this team looking past Iowa. They’re coming to play
November 30th, 2021 at 5:52 PM ^
This team looked focused all year; I don’t see that changing. They were So focused on the run game early in the season that this board was worried we couldn’t pass. Two come back wins on the road showed their “no quit” attitude. I think they will be ready.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:04 PM ^
lets not forget, technically saturday was a 'come from behind' win, too. down 10-7 until late in the 2nd quarter.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
Michigan is 10-2 against the spread this year. The only games we didn't "beat expectations" in were Rutgers and MSU. That's the best in college football this year, FYI. Anything can happen in a game, but both on paper and based on this particular team and its performance to date, I'd look for a 14-17 point UM victory. I don't see this team being unprepared or overlooking anyone...
November 30th, 2021 at 6:39 PM ^
I agree with your take generally. I could see us starting slow, as the OP mentioned. Something like 10-10 at half. But then I'd expect that we overwhelm them in the 2nd half- not much depth to my analysis on that point, just that we are the better team.
November 30th, 2021 at 9:03 PM ^
Usually at Kinnick thought right? And this is not technically a trap game, but I do agree on the letdown the first quarter maybe half.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:36 PM ^
Iowa lives and dies by the turnover margin. Their offense is awful. I fully expect a balanced Michigan attack. They haven’t played anyone with a running game like Michigans.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:02 PM ^
The closest Iowa has seen is probably Wisconsin in terms of OL strength, though its a different scheme. I agree that Iowa is entirely dependent on turnovers, and Michigan takes really good care of the football.
I think Michigan pulls away in the second half and wins fairly comfortably, something like 31-10. Michigan's offense does have some explosiveness to it, and the passing game has been effective when it's been needed this year.
November 30th, 2021 at 11:28 PM ^
And how did that UW game for Iowa? Lost 27-7? That sounds about right for this game. I think we score in the 30s and give up two TDs, one on something stupid.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:38 PM ^
Putting aside the euphoria of Saturday, this is a terrifying let-down game. Iowa loves when Michigan starts slowly, because Iowa wants a very short game to minimize Michigan's talent gap. If we're in a close slog in the mid-late third quarter, it will be really hard to put them away.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:38 PM ^
Iowa is going to be playing at their best obviously.
But if both teams play to their potential, Michigan should win this on paper...but Football has a lot of variables that can't be accounted for...
If Michigan plays mistake free football, they should walk out victorious.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:39 PM ^
I'd like to point out both of these guys predicted an OSU win last weekend and so did their model. I'm fairly certain the coaches are preparing for Iowa; they've likely been pre-scouting them for a while. I'm sure they're also psyched about beating OSU, but these are professionals and they can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time, and all of these players know that they're a game away from the playoffs and are likely psyched for that as well. This isn't getting Iowa in a regular-season game in Kinnick following a big win over PSU or MSU, for example. This is a huge game for all the marbles - I'm sure this team will be ready.
And Iowa really hasn't been playing that well to end the year - 4-2 with a -2 TO margin (after being +15 in their 6-0 start) with 3 1-score wins and the other being a 10-point win over Illinois in which they were outgained by 75 yards. They're a dangerous team and won't roll over but 24-13 sounds about right, and I could absolutely see UM be able to roll out an even more dynamic running game with Corum being healthier and making this a slow-motion blowout.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
agree with this. We COULD have a let down (hard not to after Saturday) but Coach Harbaugh was citing the US Olympic Hockey Team having to play Finland after beating the Soviet Union in 1980 - which is a very solid analogy (especially the evil empire part). So - things could go south for a variety of reasons, but I doubt the coaching staff and the leaders on the team are "just happy to be there". They want the win.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:54 PM ^
I'm pretty sure 95%* of the models and pundits predicted an osu win.
*based on actual research, really for reals
November 30th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
This game could go all kinds of ways, but I'll say this: If you have a defense as good as Michigan's and you're letting this Iowa offense score on you, that's on you
November 30th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
This is the least productive offense Ferentz has had at Iowa. I can't think of a more damning statement.
December 1st, 2021 at 5:51 AM ^
Yeah but it’s Iowa and the most Iowa thing ever would be to look like bball on grass for 1 game. Shouldn’t happen but I’ve seen stranger things. I had a sneaky feeling last Saturday I was gonna watch something special happen. This Saturday I have a sick feeling in my stomach. Hopefully it’s all for nothing but years of letdowns have taught me to hope for the best and never to be confident.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
Perhaps, but this team has some mental edge advantages over past Michigan teams. Cade said it himself after the Nebraska game: past Michigan teams likely lose that game. Not this team.
There was a quote somewhere that this team set a goal to win a national title, and they knew they had to beat OSU to achieve that dream. This team practiced to beat OSU all year, but they've been doing it with the CFP in mind. Iowa isn't a goal - it's an obstacle to what Hutchinson & Co. have manifested.
They'll be ready.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
The coaches are still talking about OSU. Can’t even imagine UM’s players
Tell me you haven't been listening to recent press conferences without telling me you haven't been listening to recent press conferences
November 30th, 2021 at 5:57 PM ^
Yeah, kinda hard not to talk about The Game when reporters keep asking questions related to The Game.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^
Or Michigan was just getting warmed up during the OSU game, will hang 50+ on Iowa and every other team after that to win the NC in convincing fashion and what will be the most incredible season ever for the Maize and Blue.
I like that scenario much better.
To quote Harbaugh, "It feels like the beginning"
November 30th, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^
This would be amazing and would mirror the 2014 Ohio State run, and to me that is what this feels like….a team out to prove everyone wrong! Beat Iowa
November 30th, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^
Hutchinson said in an interview that they’re fully focused on getting a ring, don’t worry about where the players’ heads are at.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:45 PM ^
I dont know, I feel like we win by multiple scores
November 30th, 2021 at 5:47 PM ^
Michigan will be ready. They saw what happened to MSU. It can happen to anybody, anytime, anywhere.
They will be ready.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:48 PM ^
another reason for osu vs. mich in the last week to really be a PITA. they should have a 2 week gap to title games. would give teams a chance to be ready and healthy and produce the best quality games.
That said, im nervous as hell... iowa will come out and maul and pull and grab and hold.
What did the nerds say about last week's game? (rhetorical)
I hope harbz and the boys are ready to fight for 4 quarters.. so that they dont have to.. Win an OUTRIGHT b10 title... for the first time in 20 years.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:48 PM ^
I was thinking 27-17, a bit uncomfortable at times, but a nice win in the end.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
As good as Iowa's defense is, I like Michigan's defense more, and Michigan's offense a lot more.
I make no claim to a crystal ball, but I think Michigan wins because they're the better team.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
Playing in a dome full of Michigan fans is much different than Kinnick, where they have done their historical damage. Edwards and Corum should shine.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:54 PM ^
What did CFB nerds say about UM v OSU?
December 1st, 2021 at 8:03 PM ^
Close win by OSU. Thought the game would be very competitive.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:54 PM ^
Its really amazing that Iowa won the Big Ten West solely by eeking out victories over the bottom of the Big Ten
They did not play any of the top 3 teams in the conference (M, OSU, MSU)
Lost by 20 and 17 to the #4 and #5 teams in the conference, respectively (Wisco, Purdue)
Beat the #6 and #7 teams in the conference (MN) by a total of eight points - both at home (one only happened when the starting QB got injured)
November 30th, 2021 at 6:28 PM ^
This is the most on point summary of Iowa I've seen so far.
Doesn't mean I don't expect Ferentz juju to make something bad happen for M.
I'm cautiously optimistic. That feeling worked for me last weekend.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^
The trauma of sitting in the midst of screaming Iowa fans in Kinnick Stadium the evening of November 12, 2016 still lingers, and my angst was flaring up. I was once again feeling the woman sitting behind me pounding my back in her exhilaration.
God bless you for this analysis. I feel better now.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:55 PM ^
Why are we so attached to these guys. Who gives a shit what they think. Prediction Michigan 45-Iowa 10. If this team is truly different there will be no hangover and it will be complete domination.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:08 PM ^
They’re obviously just guessing with their model and who knows? I actually do feel great about Michigan’s chances, and if UM comes out with 100% focus and no malaise from last week, they will dunk on Iowa.
Tbh, I was selfish! I wanted to start talking about the team that stands in front of Michigan’s first conference title in almost 20 years lol.
November 30th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^
1. This should sound an awful lot like a home game for Michigan. My guess is the fans will be 70-30 blue and they'll be loud.
2. As others have pointed out - this isnt a night game at Kinnick.
3. I refuse to believe that even though the euphoria of beating OSU still resonates here, the chance to win their first B1G title since 2003 will be incrediably motivating to the team. I do not envision a let down.
We're an 11 point favorite for a reason. We're better. I predict Michigan 31 -17
November 30th, 2021 at 6:00 PM ^
I’ve got 34-20 Michigan.
November 30th, 2021 at 6:46 PM ^
Since 2004*
November 30th, 2021 at 7:15 PM ^
This, coming from the same guy who correctly saw the possibility for an Iowa upset in 2016, and I think you're right here again.
If it was in Kinnick I'd be super nervous, because Kinnick. But this team has a special mental edge and I'm not worried about a let down. I think Iowa is good enough to keep it interesting in the first half, but they won't have the horses to hang around forever. I'm gonna say 30-20 since they are probably a better red zone defense than OSU, with a late Iowa TD to make it kinda respectable
November 30th, 2021 at 5:58 PM ^
Aidan Hutchinson Doesn’t take a play off let alone a whole game. Aidan “focused like a sniper” Hutchinson