Big Ten West Champion scenarios - 24 hours left
Iowa, in spite of Iowaing at Peak Iowa levels all season, went into this weekend with one job: Beat Nebraska, win the West. They generously agreed to play on Friday night so we could sit back and enjoy them failing to do that now, while we still possess humor. By this time tomorrow, we may not. Given that Iowa has once again failed to fall FORWARD into a division championship, let's look at the remaining possibilities.
First, if Purdue beats Indiana, Purdue will be the only 6-3 team in the West and will win the division. This is likely - Purdue seems kind of okay, and Indiana is terrible (but they did beat MSU. I feel compelled to mention that, for 9.5 million reasons). But since is the Big 10 West we're talking about, anything is possible.
If Purdue loses, there will be at least three teams at 5-4: Purdue, Iowa, and the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner. Illinois will also be 5-4 if they beat Northwestern. Therefore your possible teams tied at 5-4 are:
A. Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota
B. Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin
C. Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois
D. Purdue, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois
Tiebreaker scenarios are as follows:
A. Iowa beat both Minnesota and Purdue and thus wins by first tiebreaker rule (head-to-head records).
B. Iowa beat both Wisconsin and Purdue, so it's still Iowa.
C. Iowa is 2-1 against the other three. Purdue is 2-1, Minnesota is 0-3, Illinois is 2-1. Minnesota is eliminated via first tiebreaker and we reconsider Iowa v. Purdue v. Illinois. All three are 1-1 against one another, so we look at division records. Iowa is 4-2, Purdue is 4-2, Illinois is 5-1. Illinois wins the West.
D. Iowa is 2-1 against the other three. Purdue is 1-2. Wisconsin is 1-2. Illinois is 2-1. Purdue and Wisconsin are eliminated, and Illinois wins the West due to its victory over Iowa.
In other words:
Purdue just needs to beat Indiana to win the West.
Illinois needs to win and to have Purdue lose to win the West.
Iowa needs Purdue and Illinois to both lose to win the West.
Prediction: Falling forwards into a championship just isn't Iowa's style. Falling backwards, though? That they can do. Iowa wins the West, gets absolutely hamblasted in the championship game, and Brian Ferentz's son John Ferentz is named Special Teams coordinator, thus ensuring that the Ferentz dynasty shall rule over Iowa football for another hundred years.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:23 PM ^
Is the verb "Iowaing" or "Iowing"? I like the latter.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:43 PM ^
In IUPAC nomenclature, chemicals have names like ‘pentoxide’ not ‘pentaoxide’ because of the akward double vowel thing. The chemists support “Iowing” over “Iowaing”.
When it comes down to it, neither verb feels satisfactory. I guess they’re both well suited to their definition.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:19 PM ^
Iowasting? Iowon’t be making any more puns on this thread.
November 25th, 2022 at 11:17 PM ^
+1 for IUPAC. As a chem nerd, it's "Iowing" for me.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:45 PM ^
How the West was Lost…
November 25th, 2022 at 8:26 PM ^
Iowaning
November 25th, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^
There’s a “win” in “Iowing.”
(Whether that’s a vote in favor or against, I’m not sure)
November 25th, 2022 at 10:07 PM ^
You deserve an upvote for pointing this out, but that might be mistaken for agreeing that lo”win”ing should be a thing and clearly that is very, very not true.
November 25th, 2022 at 10:01 PM ^
PJ Fleck already trademarked it!
November 25th, 2022 at 11:12 PM ^
*Iowang
November 25th, 2022 at 11:48 PM ^
I think Iowa can work as the noun and verb as well, maybe even as an adjective.
November 26th, 2022 at 1:16 AM ^
Buffalo buffalo buffalo buffalo Buffalo buffalo buffalo.
Iowa Iowa Iowa Iowa Iowa?
November 25th, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
I think Purdue blows it and Illinois beats NW.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:37 PM ^
That wouldn't surprise me one damn bit
November 25th, 2022 at 7:27 PM ^
I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa wins the West... nothing that happens in the West would surprise me.
November 25th, 2022 at 9:39 PM ^
What if they had a team in the west that played football well? That’d surprise the heck out of me.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:29 PM ^
For either UM or OSU, you wanted Iowa to win. They're no threat at all as that defense is quite literally asked to also be their offense. Score 14 and you won if you're either UM or OSU.
Purdue is Purdue so they can easily lose to the worst team in the country and then hang 40+ as they look like an offensive juggernaut the next week.
Illinois is like a slightly worse Michigan with a better or more consistent passing game. At their best - and I cannot stress that enough - they probably give both UM & OSU their toughest game.
If I had to bet on the West rep in the B1GCG I'd go with Illinois, something like 51/49. I think Purdue is that capable of blowing it, just as they're capable of looking terrific for any one random game.
The funniest part being that any of these West scrubs can limp their way in and if they play one great game vs OSU/UM they're hoisting that trophy.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:53 PM ^
You have a really sadistic definition of "funny"!
If I'm us, which I am, I think I agree with you that I ultimately prefer Iowa backing into the West championship. Second to that, though, having beat Ohio State to get to the BTCCG, I think I want to play Illinois again. They did not get our best shot the week before Ohio State, and they would this time.
November 26th, 2022 at 1:17 AM ^
We didn’t believe it either when we were you and we-us said what we-us are saying right now!
November 25th, 2022 at 11:13 PM ^
I mean you’re right rationally but part of me is for some reason happy it will be a new team in the Championship game (probably). Probably a byproduct of the fact that if we win The Game everything else is gravy but I would like the gravy to be new and somewhat exciting.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:36 PM ^
+1000 for the last phrase of the final sentence:
...thus ensuring that the Ferenz Dynasty shall rule over Iowa football for another hundred years.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:36 PM ^
What are the odds of both Purdue and Illinois both losing? Unlikely, but I won't look past Indiana winning. Illinois should beat NW in Evanston. Both games are at 3:30 and both contenders are not playing at home so the intrigue mounts.
With the loss, I didn't realize that Iowa is not done yet.
Who wants to win the B1g West? Any takers?
November 25th, 2022 at 7:50 PM ^
24 hours left
But fuck ohio state 24/7/365 <-- and 366 every 4 years.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^
Go Big Red!
Go Big Blue!
November 25th, 2022 at 11:14 PM ^
Big Blue? You a Kentucky fan?
November 26th, 2022 at 5:15 AM ^
Also a Cornell fan apparently
November 25th, 2022 at 8:00 PM ^
Purdue would be a dangerous opponent in the B1G championship, coming off a major rivalry high. I hope we don't play them.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:36 PM ^
If I had a choice I’d prefer to not play Illinois again.
It’d be nice to play Purdue for what, the 3rd time in over a decade?
November 25th, 2022 at 10:04 PM ^
Why not, Blake has two knees.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:03 PM ^
Hope funny would it be if Wisconsin fired their head coach mid season and then fell backwards into the conference championship game.
November 26th, 2022 at 1:18 AM ^
They’d need a 2020-style changing the rules midstream to do so. They lose every tiebreaker.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:12 PM ^
Go Purdue! Go Blue!
November 25th, 2022 at 8:14 PM ^
It’s frankly insulting that a team from that trash heap of a division gets to go to Indy. A team from the West has never won (at least not since the re-alignment in 2014). Not once.
The divisions need a serious re-calibration when USC and UCLA enter the picture.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:28 PM ^
USC and UCLA would presumably be decent contenders in the West. But we’re probably losing divisions.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:35 PM ^
With what Riley appears to be building at USC, he’d run roughshod through the West. Assuming USC went to the West, and the divisions stayed intact. Honestly all he needs is an average to good defense and that’ll probably be enough to win it all.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:27 PM ^
That was a lot of words. The net net is not complex at this point as you eventually got to at the end.
November 26th, 2022 at 5:21 AM ^
He was funny & laid out every scenario succinctly.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:32 PM ^
I saw a Tweet that if the West took an All Star team from the top 4 West teams they would still lose to the winner of The Game
November 25th, 2022 at 8:48 PM ^
With how bad the West is, I wouldn't be surprised to see Illinois and Purdue lose.
November 25th, 2022 at 9:05 PM ^
First off, thank you for this breakdown.
Second, I upvoted as soon as I read your "9.5 million reasons" line.
Third, I'm rooting against A and B. After watching Iowa play us, Illinois (still not sure why I did that to myself), and one or two other times, I can't stand the idea of sitting through another game involving them.
November 26th, 2022 at 5:19 AM ^
Should have been 95M reasons
November 25th, 2022 at 9:40 PM ^
Masterful, OP.
November 25th, 2022 at 9:44 PM ^
Iowa coaches said “no thanks” for a repeat spanking in the B1G Championship
November 25th, 2022 at 10:06 PM ^
How the West was won? Catchy!
November 25th, 2022 at 10:28 PM ^
I am with you. Purdue is just a crazy team and I think Indiana beats them because just because. Illinois is snake bitten and they will lose to Northwestern and yes Iowa backs in. Crazy. Go Blue!
November 25th, 2022 at 11:05 PM ^
Let's see... Purdue ties and lllinois wins, then llinois reps the West?
November 25th, 2022 at 11:59 PM ^
Purdue is the last team on that list I want to play.
November 26th, 2022 at 1:20 AM ^
I will sign up right now to play any of the three, sight unseen.
Beat OSU and the rest is gravy.
November 26th, 2022 at 5:08 AM ^
I’ll take Iowa, really don’t wanna play Illinois again. I’d be confident in beating Purdue, but those little bastards are capable of snake biting anyone. Of course that’s assuming we win today.
November 26th, 2022 at 8:24 AM ^
There's a Big Ten West?
When did this happen?