Big Ten Coaches Anonymously Preview Michigan vs. Alabama
The Athletic's Bruce Feldman did a preview on Michigan's chances vs Alabama by interviewing Big Ten coaches anonymously. The result is about what you would expect. I hope the coaches have this article plastered all over Schembechler Hall. The short version: a lot of bagging on our offense, but admiration for our defense.
Article is paywalled:
https://theathletic.com/5141982/2023/12/18/michigan-alabama-college-football-playoff-rose-bowl/
Some snippets:
Despite a dramatic regular season punctuated by an investigation over alleged sign-stealing, No. 1 Michigan rolled to a 13-0 record heading into the College Football Playoff matchup in the Rose Bowl against No. 4 Alabama. But college football coaches The Athletic spoke to for this scouting report are convinced Michigan hasn’t been the same team since the NCAA’s investigation became public.
“They’re different now,” said one Big Ten head coach. “It makes a huge difference to know when blitzes are coming, so when you pick it up, you can really attack it. After that (investigation and resignation of staffer Connor Stalions), they weren’t always at the right place at the right time.”
The Athletic interviewed 10 Big Ten coaches, scouts and analysts to break down Michigan and how it matches up with a late-blooming Alabama team. They were granted anonymity to provide candid observations about the Wolverines.
Scouting the O-line: The best in the Big Ten
“That O-line looks pretty. They’re like three deep of pretty guys, but you watch the film and Indiana stuffed them,” one of the defensive analysts said. “They’re not moving you off the ball like you’d think.”
“I think Alabama will give them trouble with their front,” a Big Ten head coach added.
Despite this decline, most of the coaches still viewed Michigan’s offensive line as the best in the Big Ten. “They’re big and very sound fundamentally and disciplined,” said one of the head coaches. “They’ll check Alabama’s oil.”
Who wins: Michigan or Alabama?
Michigan opened as a two-point favorite over Alabama, but the line is down to one in some places. Alabama being the underdog didn’t seem right to most of the coaches, and the majority believe Alabama will beat Michigan. Some of that might be due to the fact that Michigan has lost each of its two Playoff semifinal games, and Harbaugh’s six consecutive losses in bowl games is glaring.
“What has Jim learned?” a Big Ten head coach asked. “Are his guys gonna be fresh and ready to go or worn down?”
“I think it’s the same old thing with Michigan,” said a Big Ten secondary coach. “They’re extremely talented, but if someone can hold up up front with them, I think they’re just too one-dimensional. … They’ve got to get explosive plays on the perimeter somewhere, and those are gonna be hard to come by because Alabama can match up with them outside and still be stern enough against the run.
“Michigan is going to have to play such a clean game.”
One head coach said he wouldn’t be shocked if Michigan won — but he’s picking Alabama. “If Milroe plays like he has lately, I think that’ll be too much for Michigan. There’s nobody like him in the Big Ten. (Alabama) has figured out how to use him, and that’s scary.”
Another head coach did point out that Michigan has the “kind of stuff” that keeps the Wolverines winning — after all, Michigan is 13-0 despite its head coach being suspended for almost half of the season, including during its toughest stretch.
“They don’t have any superstars, but they’re strong and they’ve got a bunch of really good college players,” he said. “They have a really good culture. None of them gives a s— who gets the credit. These guys clearly love playing with each other. They have the chemistry to win a championship.”
December 18th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
Coaches mused on whether the decline in J.J. McCarthy’s production since the NCAA investigation became public was due to the sign stealing (or lack thereof), injury or Michigan’s backloaded schedule — or a combination of all of the above, the latter being most significant.
“It does make you wonder,” said one defensive analyst whose team faced Michigan in the last month of the season. “Going into our game, I thought he was among the best in the country. Afterward, I didn’t think the same. Once all that stuff happened, he just doesn’t look the same. I don’t know if he’s hurt. I thought he was a Heisman candidate. Heisman quarterbacks don’t throw only eight passes in a game. I think before, he was ready for it and he was confident.”
“I don’t know what’s causing him to be hesitant and not as decisive as he was earlier,” said a Big Ten head coach who played Michigan. “He seems out of sync lately.”
One of the head coaches was adamant that the Wolverines had a significant advantage with signal-stealing intel, but he also pointed out that Michigan’s schedule was backloaded.
Still salty, I see
December 18th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
Context here is it's a Penn State coach saying this. He must have missed the fact that Barnhart couldn't keep the strong side clean and, in fact, JJ did get dinged up. So Sherrone decided to run it down their throats.
Also, to imply that it was JJ's decision to only throw 8 times is completely asinine. Is this person interviewed even a coach? EDIT: Guess not. Analyst. I would first this analyst.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:43 PM ^
JJ completed 7 of those 8 passes. He also ran the ball well.
He has actually played well since all this started, the games have just been really odd.
He was pretty much perfect against MSU. Against Purdue, not quite as accurate and no TDs, but most yards for the year.
Penn State, see above.
Maryland, yeah not great. The one dud.
Against Ohio State, he was extremely accurate, but there just wasn't much open downfield so the yardage wasn't there. But he made big plays all game and was an inch or two away from another one on that Roman Wilson catch that was just out of bounds.
Iowa, he played well and took what was there. No turnovers against Iowa's defense is nothing to sneeze at. Also his stats were thrown off by three plays:
1. Weak holding call on Trente Jones negates a nice 11 yard completion to Barner
2. Drop by Loveland on what would have been at least a 20 yard gain.
3. Drop by Barner on what would have been an 11 or 12 yard completion inside the 10.
Add those in and its probably a score more similar to 2021.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:17 PM ^
One of the head coaches was adamant that the Wolverines had a significant advantage with signal-stealing intel, but he also pointed out that Michigan’s schedule was backloaded.
Must be Frames.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
These guys know the real answers but are still enjoying an anonymous whine session
Yes, JJ was hurt. That's pretty well known
Yeah, JJ didn't win the heisman in part because we were able to pave your defense in the 2nd half without needing to pass Anonymous Penn State Coach
“I don’t know what’s causing him to be hesitant and not as decisive as he was earlier,” said a Big Ten head coach who played Michigan. “He seems out of sync lately.”
Crazy what playing 3 top 10 SP+ defenses in 4 games on a hurt ankle will do to you. This type of quote reveals that there's no serious analysis going on by these anonymous Big Ten staffers. It's just salt mining
December 18th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
B1G coaches still acting like the sign thing was an advantage after UM squashed that by, you know, beating the shit the of the rest of the B1G from MSU on(even though they all had Michigan's signs) is hilarious. Like guys, give it up, your "don't know ball" is showing.
December 18th, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^
Also acting like THEY don't ALSO have all of OUR signs and therefore know exactly when blitzes are coming.
Fuck these unbelievable assholes and any reporter pushing this horse shit
December 18th, 2023 at 2:42 PM ^
I know the issue has faded into the background the past few weeks, but I think opposing coaches aren't wrong to be salty.
Michigan winning may be an "anecdote" to the saltiness on the Wolverine side, but the hard feelings on the other side, they aren't going away anytime soon.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
They can die mad. The investigation this far has shown, so far, that Stallion was a lone wolf AND most unbiased coaches have said it is not that big of an issue.
December 18th, 2023 at 3:32 PM ^
And if a sign guy does make that big of a difference, then Michigan was the only team in college football without one for the last half of the season and still beat everyone's ass.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
Opposing coaches are still salty because Michigan proved that having signs or a "sign guy" doesn't mean shit and it makes them look stupid for complaining about it. All while they employ "sign guys" and collect Michigan's signal sheet from Ryan Day. I guess I would be salty too if I couldn't beat Michigan after all that.
I hope Michigan starts REALLY cheating by tampering in the portal and paying recruits to visit/commit so B1G coaches can be salty about that too(even though they do the same thing). Rinse, repeat.
Stay salty bitches, all while UM keeps up the status quo of beating your asses.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:55 PM ^
They are salty because its convenient. Instead of failing because of our own coaching and prep, Michigan just had an insurmountable advantage that no team could possibly overcome!
Its also almost certainly just mass hypocrisy given the information being passed around team to team by various staffs, what they can gather from the various recordings, etc.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
If they're also stealing/sharing Michigan's signs, as has been suggested by a few different sources, then this is pure hypocrisy on their part.
December 18th, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^
No see, when they get a full spreadsheet from another staff detailing all of Michigan's signs based on in-person observations of a game, that's different.
December 18th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
And they aren't going away on thisside any time soon either. gtfo of here with that sactimonious bullshit. Where's the hard feelins for what OSU did or what Sabin is doing right now? No you all need to cope that Michigan is good now with this bullshit.
December 18th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^
If someone is knowingly breaking a rule, and if you believe another coach is "sanctimonious" in calling that out, fair enough.
I disagree. I think the other coach has a right to call it out.
You can label it "bullshit", you can label it "coping", you can label it whatever. It's my opinion.
December 18th, 2023 at 5:00 PM ^
I think the problem is more with these coaches suggesting that the rule violation in question produced any actual competitive advantage on the field, when they know damn well it did not.
December 18th, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^
Yeah, and I think PSU should have gotten the death penalty over the Sandusky shit, and that’s only tangentially related to football.
But that’s just my opinion.
December 18th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
That's fine.
If that's something someone wants to be salty about, I have no issues with that. What happened at PSU re: Sandusky shouldn't have happened, it was wrong.
December 18th, 2023 at 5:16 PM ^
It's sanctimonious if you call it out while you're almost certainly gleaning the same advantage from different sources and potentially the same same sources.
I mean, from what it sounds like all these sign-stealers trade information. For all you know, Penn State received intel from Stalions.
December 18th, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^
Does that mean it's okay for them to give a dishonest analysis that serves only to recreate the false belief that the sign stealing mattered?
“They’re different now,” said one Big Ten head coach. “It makes a huge difference to know when blitzes are coming, so when you pick it up, you can really attack it. After that (investigation and resignation of staffer Connor Stalions), they weren’t always at the right place at the right time.”
Reminder, here's what happened after the story broke:
Beat MSU 49-0
Beat Purdue 41-13
Won at PSU without our head coach and the first time facing a ranked team, let alone one of the top defenses in the country on the road. Gee, why did Michigan look different on offense than they did versus Nebraska? I wonder.
Won at Maryland with a banged up QB without a head coach in a classic trap game. Scored 31 points. Would have been 38 if the banged up QB had hit a wide open CJ on play action.
Beat OSU. Scored 30 points.
-----
So really we were only held in check on offense at PSU (congratulations).
Being mad about the signs is one thing (even though it is a dumb thing). Lying to sell your story is another.
Edit: Updated the Purdue score. Typo. Surprised no one called me out.
December 18th, 2023 at 3:09 PM ^
I get that they are still salty, but it's also clear that they collectively blew the impact/importance of the advance scouting completely out of proportion.
Advanced scouting is not as good as, say, being handed a sheet with the signs from an opposing teams/coaches nor is it as good as hiring a recent ex-coach. It's still not even clear that hiring randos to record the sidelines with an iPhone is actually against the rules and even if it is, the value of it was far, far less than they said.
It's worth three TDs just knowing whether it is run or pass? Player safety issues? Come on coaches, be real.
December 18th, 2023 at 6:28 PM ^
It was not advance scouting, it was paying for someone to film some games. All-22 makes their living doing just that and its perfectly within the rules.
December 18th, 2023 at 3:38 PM ^
You are right, I would be salty too if my team got 30 runs stuffed down their throat and still couldn't stop it. Maybe I'd try teaching the Edges to be gap sound instead of running 10 yards upfield after each snap. But no, of course it's the signs!
December 18th, 2023 at 4:20 PM ^
Winning isn't an "anecdote." It's the point of the game and, in this case, a complete rebuttal to the resentment your coaching staff seem intent on nursing. There are many reasons PSU lost to Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised if one factor was the coaching staff's fixation on grievances, rather than focusing on its own team.
And saltiness can go both ways. You all lost at home, against a team without a head coach and with an injured quarterback. Oh, and I forgot: Michigan didn't have the all-important sign-stealer, while PSU most assuredly did have its sign-stealer. You're still going to chalk Michigan's win up to $55,000.00/year staffer who was no longer with the team? Man, I don't know what to say about that.
December 18th, 2023 at 6:18 PM ^
Of course winning is the point of the game. The game still has rules, of course. When I said "anecdote" --- it's mostly an "anecdote" for a portion of the fans, who use the following logic: "well, my favorite team won even after Stalions wasn't willingly breaking the rules, thus anything he was doing in terms of willingly breaking the rules prior, that breaking of the rules obviously didn't matter."
Fair enough if one subscribes to that logic. It still remains: someone was willingly breaking the rules for a period of time.
To your second paragraph: I haven't "chalked Michigan's win up to a $55K/year staffer who is no longer with the team" - that's not stating my opinion correctly. My opinion is that any B1G coach still has a right to be salty about what was going on. Those are 2 separate and different opinions.
December 18th, 2023 at 6:32 PM ^
There was no breaking of the rules. Teams are perfectly within the rules to pay for game film. See: All-22.
Big Ten coaches can cry all the crocodile tears they want. They know perfectly well that sign-stealing had nothing to do with Michigan's domination of the conference for the last three years, which they can't say about their own crap coaching skills.
Everyone "steals" signs, and every one of those coaches buys game film of future opponents. But they have to lie about it because telling the truth would cost them their jobs.
December 18th, 2023 at 6:47 PM ^
Fair enough. If you want to say "there was no breaking of the rules", that's fine.
The B1G did penalize Michigan in relation to the B1G Sportsmanship Policy - Michigan did not fight that.
Based on such, IMO it's not unfair if someone else says "there was a breaking of the rules."
December 18th, 2023 at 7:52 PM ^
The Big Ten did penalize Michigan by inventing new rules for the purpose of punishing Michigan for no reason.
The "unsportsmanslike" behavior was "Impermissible Scheme" with no definition of either Impermissible or Scheme. Teeny Petite just pulled shit out of his ass because he had a bunch of Big Ten coaches and ADs whining that they couldn't stop Michigan from winning the Big Ten unless Petite crippled Michigan somehow.
He tried. He failed. And, in the process, completely burned the bridges between the Big Ten administration and the University of Michigan.
Michigan tried to fight it, but Petite had timed things so that only Pete Thamel knew what he was going to do until the evening of the day before the game. Time ran out for a Michigan court case and Michigan decided it was better to just let events take their course than try for a low-odds win that would just motivate Petite to make up some more shit to try to cripple Michigan further.
December 18th, 2023 at 10:22 PM ^
I’m sorry - but that reads as though you want it both ways.
You argue that the Big Ten Commissioner “pulled shit out of his ass” (fair enough) but later argue Michigan fighting it was a “low-odds win.”
If the Commissioner truly has nothing, fight it!
FWIW, this is the same argument I’ve heard from some PSU folk regarding the NCAA consent decree from July 2012. They argue that “the NCAA had nothing” while simultaneously waving away the fact that PSU didn’t fight the decree. I would tell those folks I thought their argument was inconsistent.
I don’t begrudge a coach who saw Michigan accept and construed that as an admission of a degree of guilt. And to my original post, that is why they are and will remain salty.
December 19th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
The Big Ten established a new precedent. It will be interesting to see if they hold to it for recruiting violations and the like.
Either way, a penalty was assessed - a HC was removed from 2 of the biggest games of the season - and Michigan still won all games in question. We cannot claim this was a slap on the wrist. We also cannot pretend that what Stallions did was leaps and bounds different than what is legally available. Someone broke a rule. A punishment was levied. And Michigan still prevailed.
It's fine if you want to be salty. It's also perfectly acceptable for us to be salty that coaches are questioning the success of this team based on a rule violation where a punishment was served and the proven advantage was negligible, at best. And if Ryan Day doesn't miss the Cotton Bowl for his staff recruit tampering (he won't), I think it's pretty valid to say not only was Michigan's punishment "not light," but was in fact heavy - and unfair.
But it doesn't matter because despite that unfair advantage, we still won. And salty coaches can be salty, but they tried and succeeded to get an unfair advantage, and still lost. It'd be best if they buried the hatchet, but since they don't seem to be, realize that salty feelings will probably fester on BOTH sides until Michigan feels like it's gotten its pound of flesh.
Look forward to the next time PSU contends and OSU drums up something on them. I'm sure they won't be getting any sympathy from Ann Arbor.
December 18th, 2023 at 4:51 PM ^
So, Penn State lost at Ohio State by a slimmer margin than Michigan beat Penn State at home when alleged sign-stealing cost the team their head coach on the way to Happy Valley. It seems this is more lingering sour grapes than anything else.
Any hard feelings are on Penn State's inability to beat Michigan over the past three years just like Ohio State.
December 18th, 2023 at 5:56 PM ^
So you think opposing coaches "aren't wrong" to accuse not only Michigan coaches (who have not been linked in any way to Stalions activities), but also players? Typical classy PSU fan.
December 18th, 2023 at 6:23 PM ^
Salty opposing coaches are morons, in addition to being bad coaches. All of their saltiness is due to them being so cluelessly credulous that they base their conclusions about Michigan on a pack of lies created by opposing fans and clickmongering "journalists." No one has even actually officially accused Michigan of anything wrong. It's all rumors and bullshit, and shit coaches embrace the phony narrative because they can't handle the truth.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:44 PM ^
I could see a Maryland coach saying this. JJ DID play poorly that game. Heading into it, he did feel like a Heisman candidate, even after PSU. Heading out of it, we were all worried about his performance. Then he went out and was the offensive MVP in the game with an absolutely killer throw in 3rd and 10 for a TD. Kinda makes this quote seem like it COULD be a bit out of context, at best.
December 18th, 2023 at 4:41 PM ^
Yet Josh Allen is being praised for going 7/15 for 94 yards in a win. Scoreboard counts.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^
Screw the Big Ten. Rooting against all these pussy coaches in the bowl season.
December 18th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
Except Iowa and Nebraska.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
A Bunch of People Who Haven't Beaten Michigan in Years, Explain How to Beat Michigan ...
December 18th, 2023 at 2:31 PM ^
Bingo.
December 18th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
The entire conference became Spartified.
"Just wait until you play Alabama!"
December 18th, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
Underrated comment of the day. Nailed it.
December 18th, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
/End thread
December 18th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
This was interesting to me: "“What has Jim learned?” a Big Ten head coach asked. “Are his guys gonna be fresh and ready to go or worn down?”
Are we working the guys too hard over this stretch?
December 18th, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
This is nonsense. These coaches have little to no access to our bowl prep. Is it possible and should our bowl prep be evaluated in-house? Yes. But I think our performance has more to do with tough draws for bowl games along with opt outs and injuries.
December 18th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
I think there are legitimate questions you could ask about the slowness to adjust the run game to get outside in last year's TCU game. (And some associated stubbornness/arrogance that I can't imagine will be repeated against Alabama).
But that game was more about some extremely unfortunate offensive moments in the first half (pick 6, goal line fumble, Philly Special) that put UM in a hole and some extremely unfortunate defensive moments that meant we couldn't quite dig out of it.
December 18th, 2023 at 3:47 PM ^
Tough draws?
Michigan was the higher ranked team in 2015, 2016, 2018, and 2022.
Michigan went 1-3 as the higher ranked team.
Michigan was the lower ranked team in 2019 and 2021.
Michigan went 0-2 as the lower ranked team.
Both teams were unranked in 2017.
Michigan is 0-1 when both teams are unranked.
December 18th, 2023 at 4:02 PM ^
2017 and 2022 are the two that Michigan should have won.
2017, up 19-3 on a mediocre South Carolina team, the team just blew it. That was the game with the Sean McKeown carry (!) and fumble. Just a disaster. I remember that game because I'd been on the "We don't need Shea Patterson, Peters will be great!" side and after that slunk into the bushes Homer Simpson style.
2022, been re-hashed endlessly, but TCU played a great game, Michigan made dumb mistakes and all those mistakes were punished to the maximum.
The other losses are all pretty understandable:
2016 - Lose Peppers right before the game, Dalvin Cook goes off. Despite that, a chance to win in the last minutes.
2018 - Lots of guys sit out against a highly motivated Florida team in Dan Mullen's first year (inverse of 2015).
2019 - Drew an Alabama team that lose two games by 8 points. Shea Patterson misses every deep ball, game is close for three quarters and then Alabama pulls away late. Always laugh because a 10-2 Penn State got to play Memphis.
2021 - An all time Georgia defense + Vincent Grey getting cooked.
December 18th, 2023 at 10:20 PM ^
What does ranking have to do with it? Ranking isn't taking into account injuries and opt outs. This is a terrible way to evaluate this. Not all bowls are equal either. CFP playoff games are a much higher bar than the Pinstripe Bowl. Only OSU has had a comparable bowl schedule during these past 7 years, and they are 4-4 during that period with three of those wins coming against the Pac-12. Michigan has almost exclusively played the best in the SEC and FSU in this stretch going 0-5. OSU is 1-4 against the SEC and Clemson in the same stretch.
Michigan was favored in a bunch of these games, but some of these bowls have felt more like meaningless exhibitions (2018 Outback Bowl and 2018 Peach Bowl in particular). I feel the TCU game was the biggest disappointment to me. Michigan was a heavy favorite and did not play well, but lost in the postgame analysis for this game is that Blake Corum, the team MVP and workhorse, was lost for the season and not available for Michigan.
Michigan was a heavy underdog to Georgia and Alabama in 2021 and 2019 respectively, and it is hard to have expected a win against those teams even in retrospect looking at the personnel they had.
Michigan was favored in the 2018 Peach Bowl against Florida by -7.5 points, but they had several key players opt out including 2 NFL 1st round picks in Rashan Gary and Devin Bush while Florida had almost everyone opt in to play that game.
The 2017 team played in the Outback Bowl with a backup QB in Brandon Peters who threw 2 INTs and lost a fumble. He was making one of his first starts for Michigan and was not ready to be the starter. Not sure I would use this game in this analysis, but it was played I guess.
The 2016 Orange Bowl had Michigan as a 7-point favorite, but Jabrill Peppers, Michigan's MVP, was ruled out before kickoff. Michigan was outplayed, but the team still worked their way in the second half into an opportunity to win the game. Dalvin Cook was pretty good and tip my hat to him.
The 2022 Fiesta Bowl playoff game and 2016 Orange Bowl were disappointments to me, but it doesn't help that in both games Michigan was playing without their team MVPs.