The Athletic Article: Ohio State Still Alive and Dangerous
Pains me to have this discussion. Ohio State is very much alive and dangerous according to our friends at The Athletic. They are not (yet) a vanquished foe.
https://theathletic.com/3950797/2022/11/29/georgia-ohio-state-college-football-playoff/
It's behind a paywall, so I'll just summarize by saying Ari Wasserman is suggesting that UGA was also the big loser of the results to "The Game" since there's a statistical likelihood of OSU getting into the 4-spot in the final CFP Rankings, and thus UGA would have to face OSU -- the only other team with the caliber of talent needed to compete at the Natty level with Geogia.
The article is also a not-so-subtle dig on Michigan, our lack of depth and stars, and how OSU with a month to prepare would be a much more dangerous foe for UGA. Look, I don't disagree OSU is a talented program with incredible athleticism. They have immense talent in the skill positions, and depth everywhere. But two years in a row of being outmuscled at the line of scrimmage is not a fluke. Losing by three TD's on your home field in arguably the biggest game in a generation -- that's not a fluke. I enjoy the underdog narrative for Michigan. It supports our junk yard dog tenacity and is part of our culture of toughness now. But give me a break. We are closer to UGA than anyone is giving us credit for, and I assure you the fine folks in Athens don't relish the idea of playing us again.
Lastly, I'll just point out (once again) that IMHO it's bullshit TCU and USC are exposed to risk in a 13th game that Bama and OSU lost the opportunity in which to play. In my opinion, playing a 13th game for a conference championship should only be able to improve one's standing in the CFP Rankings. But I know I'm in the minority with that sentiment.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
Wut? Georgia is built like UM. They will squash them like bugs, just like we did.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Can’t fix soft in a month. UGA will shit on a team with no running game.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
And CJ Stroud will shit his pants against a legit DL/pass rush. So much shit.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
Yep. Imagine OSU playing a Georgia team that is more talented than Michigan with a month to watch exactly how Michigan throttled OSU. We did it without much of a pass rush. Ryan Day and Stroud would get throttled just as bad and probably worse. Look what UGA did to Tennessee's offense
November 30th, 2022 at 9:34 AM ^
It's win-win-win--either OSU is left out, OSU takes out Georgia (GA is worse match up for Michigan), or OSU gets blown out by Georgia (I don't see a narrow OSU loss, either OSU win or major loss).
November 30th, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
Wasserman's entire brand is "Stars Matter." And while they do, Saturday's game really undercut his belief that they're the only thing that matters. Hence him leaning in further on the argument in his article.
In any event, his premise is wrong. Georgia would crush OSU for the same reason we did. OSU is weak in the trenches. Georgia is not.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
If you have the better argument, pound the argument. If you have better facts, pound the facts. If you have neither, pound the table.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
Yep. I think Ari legitimately feels Clemson, Bama, and OSU are still playoff quality because he looks at recruiting rankings and refuses to watch what happens on the field. I think the committee falls into a similar trap which is based off what these programs have done in the last 5-10 years and not what the team on the field has done (or not done) this year
November 30th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
He's absolutely one of the simplistic national media guys who doesn't know ball trying to act like the arbiter of the sport. Same type of guy as Bud Elliot who we also gave a thread to recently. Don't even give guys like this the time of day. Unless they have an intimate knowledge on the dynamics of a team they are covering they are just spewing conjecture. Sure, they may know recruiting classes intimately, but the game is still about the confluence of scheme, technique, and talent. They're focusing on just one aspect of it.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
I was saying in another thread. If talent itself wins games, Colts will have a lot more championship than Patriots. What TB did with his good not great receivers tells you all you need to know about where the games are won. In trenches.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:34 AM ^
Beyond that, he's totally oblivious to the importance of line play. Doesn't understand it, doesn't pay attention to it. Even when he brings it up, his only commentary is about toughness.
And UM is much, much tougher than OSU on the lines, but they're also incredibly precise and intelligence, see, eg, Zinter's combination of blocks on the second TD to free Edwards (his commentary on those plays were all about "5-star back," which ... yes ... but also incredible line coaching and execution)
November 30th, 2022 at 9:37 AM ^
completely agree with the conference championship game being an opportunity to improve the resume...but you shouldn't get punished because you have to play an extra game. Right now, USC, TCU, Ohio State have all finished their regular seasons...and USC and TCU have better resumes (TCU for sure, USC I guess is a maybe). USC has earned an opportunity to improve that resume this week.
If the committee thinks that USC resume is better than OSU right now, which it seems they do, this week shouldn't matter. If they think USC needs to win v. Utah to have a better resume, they should have ranked them 5th this week and move them up if/when they win.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:37 AM ^
Why would you be in the minority with that sentiment? The only people who think that way right now are OSU and Bama fans.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:38 AM ^
I'll borrow Lamar Jackson's tweet and apply it to Ari...
"Boy STFU, y'all be cappin' too much on this app, MF never smelt a football field never did s--t but eat d--k."
November 30th, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
Nuff said.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
Same can be said of Bud Elliot.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
In this Championship week, it should just be for seeding. I agree, no team sitting out and not playing for a championship should jump a team that is playing an extra game and trying to win a conference championship. It would be a different thing if there were a 2 loss team that was playing for the championship. But an 11-1 USC who is ranked above OSU should stay above OSU win or lose while OSU sits on their couches while other teams play.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
Great read, thanks for posting.
What's especially interesting is the author is indirectly referencing the Kubler-Ross five stages of grieving when writing this article. It appears they're still in the Denial stage, only four more to go!
November 30th, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
Tell me any really good to great team in the past 20 years that prepared an entire year for their biggest rival and ends up losing at HOME by 22 points. The reality is Michigan has built a team that Ohio State is going to have trouble beating. Why all of a sudden should we be worried about Ohio State getting an extra month to prepare for us should we end up playing them in the playoffs when we beat them by 22 after they had an entire year to prepare for us? I think what is happening right now is the challenge to come to a realization that Ohio State is not an elite team. In the past, everything would go Ohio State's way and they would make the playoffs and all of a sudden just dominate. That is in the past. This OSU team is mentally soft, they don't have a good running game, and I actually believe after the beatdown this past Saturday, it is going to be extremely difficult for them to even get up for their next game (even if it is a playoff game). Their fanbase is calling out their coaches and quarterback which I also think has an impact on morale in general. I don't want Ohio State to make the playoff because they should not get another shot after getting dominated at Home by 22 by us, but I would not be scared to play them again. They may have the better athletes (which I am not even convinced that is the case) but we have better coaches and that is why we have dominated them the past 2 years. Go Blue!
November 30th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
I would agree with most of your statement, except for the definition of an elite team. Is OSU championship caliber? No, they have holes that only get exposed when they play other elite teams only.
Are they really, really, really good. Yes, they did come into the game undefeated and that is not by accident.
To me, truly elite teams are ones that have zero weaknesses and if teams do lack in some areas, the better teams have the ability to support those areas without compromising others.
Perfect example was OSU defense. After getting steam rolled last year, OSU was hell bent on stopping the run (8 man even 9 man boxes) because they believed their Secondary would have been able to hold up. That didn't go well.... They got exposed very much like how we got exposed when Meyer went after Brandon Watson and Don Brown's defense with no mercy.
Is OSU defense really good? Yeah kinda of. Their advance stats look good and they did manage against almost all of their schedule. However when it comes time to match up against other really really really good teams / elite, they simply do not match up well.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
Useless and who cares. We already took care of what,"WE" can control.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
I agree that the field should be set. also agree that osu is a very talented and dangerous team, i would not want to play them again and tempt fate.
uga is also very good. but neither osu nor uga are invincible this year. they are both beatable. their opponent needs to have a very very good game and a good game plan. but it can be done.
this is why i'm stoked for the playoff. i think it's anybody's game still, including UM
November 30th, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
I'm not sure you are in the minority on this. The inherent SEC bias over the years has made it horrible. Nothing showed the ridiculous flaw in the current playoff system worse than when TN was sitting at four with three weeks left in the season. Already eliminated from playing for their conference title and yet locked into the playoffs if they could just beat a couple unranked teams.
Thank you South Carolina.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^
ROFL, they had a year to prepare for Michigan and hired a new DC for just that purpose. Anyone ruling them out is daydreaming, but to make them out to be more than they are right now is just another slappy.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:47 AM ^
Yes Ohio State is dangerous and I would not want to play them again in the Playoffs. Just about everything went right for us in The Game. It seems for years everything went wrong for us and OSU got all the breaks. In the past on our first TD Johnson would have not caught his balance and would have fallen to the ground. In the past, Edwards might have stepped out of bounds by and inch instead of staying in on his 75 years TD run. Santristil would not have made one of the great defensive plays that prevented a TD. OSU would not have counted on 4th down at mid field. And will be ever get 5 TD's of that length in one game again?
We know we can beat them, butI doubt it would be a "blowout". There were inches in this game that takes it from blowout to very scary.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
That was not a game of inches. Illinois was a game of inches. OSU was game of yards, and at times, miles.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
I understand why you are saying everything went right for us on Saturday but I just don't agree with that sentiment. I almost think because what has transpired the past 20 years, our brains are trained to not give our team enough credit because we just have not had much fortune throughout those years. If Ohio State plays the exact same defense and that game is played over 10 times, yes we would still get a lot of big plays. How is having 2 large holes for Edwards to go through not repeatable? Was it luck that CJ completely fooled their DB on his second touchdown? This is not the Ohio State teams of old. I have said it in other threads and I am going to keep saying it, this Ohio State team is not a scary team. They can prepare all they want for Georgia and then us, but the game on Saturday proved, we can hammer them with BIG plays if they get super aggressive and then pave them with the ground game if they start backing up their safeties. It is time to embrace that we have a team built to beat Ohio State more times than not right now, and I would love the opportunity break their entire team and fanbase in a National Championship game.
Go Blue!
November 30th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
I don't even think "everything" went right is really the correct sentiment at all either. We played without arguably our best players on offense and defense. And their first touchdown came after a play where Stroud was basically throwing away a botched screen and Harrison happened to reach his arms out to stop the ball from falling out of bounds.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
No everything did not go right for us. JJ still only hit 50% of his passes, we only had 10 yards of rushing in the first half. I am just as thrilled with beating OSU twice in a row, but it is going overboard stating that we had a perfect game or "everything went right".
November 30th, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
Potentially unpopular opinion, but I want OSU in the playoffs.
We have handedly beat them twice in a row and a UMich vs. OSU natty would be massive for the rivalry and recruiting. A rising tide lifts both boats, which may not sound like a win, but it means the SEC is sitting lower in the water and we see more of the top talent coming to Michigan (as well as OSU, but they already have a lot of it).
November 30th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
You are nuts.
1. Nothing would steal our thunder more than OSU winning the NC this year, and your hope is that they have that chance. You are nuts.
2. Our recruiting would be far more improved if we played the NC vs GA than vs OSU, especially in Ohio and neighboring states.
Please go take a nap.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
I think a better statement would be... You're okay with BEATING them in the playoffs. But wanting them again is stupid.
They aren't devoid of talent. As with most second matchups, they'll make adjustments and we'll do what worked. Not a good proposition.
Also, that means in their "down"great, they make the playoffs. No. No no no no no
November 30th, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^
Going into the CFP final and win would provide recruits a more positive impression. Beat Purdue> assuming TCU > Ga.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
Fuck them.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
Unconscious
November 30th, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
The video of the Rich Eisen show was posted a couple days ago but I really love his take on this matter of Ohio State lobbying for the last spot in the playoff. Their best case to make an argument is trying to defend how good of a team we are and how that loss should be looked at as a good loss. Who would have thought 4 years ago that Ohio State would be on the outside looking in for the playoffs with them having to argue that our team is just that good and that is why they should make the playoffs. This just makes me smile and giggle. Go Blue!
November 30th, 2022 at 9:51 AM ^
Great points all around. Also totally agree with the last point about the 13th game.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
The issue is that people always ask, "who did they lose to", when the question should be, "who did they beat". If the CFP looked at it that way, teams wouldn't be punished for a tough non-con schedule and in fact tough games would be encouraged.
There shouldn't be a penalty for losing, because the only metric that matters is who did you beat.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:54 AM ^
It sucks, but who else are they putting at #5 and #6? Tennessee, who just got waxed by a four-loss South Carolina? Penn State is next, but they got destroyed by Michigan (even worse the the final score indicates) and beat by a one-loss Ohio. Clemson is after them, but they also just lost to the same four-loss SC team. Then after that, you have a bunch of three-loss teams.
It pains me to say, but Bama and Ohio State should be the next two in, due to all the comments echoed in here about Bama and because Ohio still only has one-loss, albeit a terrible one. While I wholeheartedly agree that TCU/USC should NOT be penalized for a 13th game, we should be praying that both teams win. Losses to a #10 and #11 in the conference championship game shouldn't drop them below two teams that didn't make their championship games.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
The more interesting scenario to me is TCU. I think it would be hard to justify including USC if they were to lose the Pac-12 Championship Game and a second time to Utah. The margin between USC and OSU is probably already pretty slim.
TCU, on the other hand, I feel should already be in regardless of the result on Saturday in the Big 12 Championship Game. They have beaten everyone in their league once and should not be penalized for a loss in a rematch to KSU while OSU sits at home.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:38 AM ^
Totally agree. Unless they get beat worse than we beat OSU, then they should be in for sure.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
espn said AN ohio state has a 71% chance of getting in the playoffs as a 4 seed because the % chance both TCU and USC win this weekend is ~29%.
guess i have to root for TCU and USC now
November 30th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
ESPN's FPI gives TCU a 54% chance of winning this week and USC a 38% chance of winning (Bill Connelly's SP+ numbers and some other rankings are not as low on USC and make the Pac-12 about a 50/50 game). Based on ESPN's FPI numbers, that would make the odds of both teams winning around 20.7%. I think most of the odds of OSU getting in are based on USC losing as they still give TCU a 92% chance of making the playoff today even with a 54% chance of winning Saturday.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
The flaw with that logic is that ESPN AI believes that OSU should get in IF TCU loses and USC wins. To me, in the scenario, TCU is #4 and USC is #3 and OSU is stuck at #5.
To me, it all comes down to Friday's PAC12 CCG game. If USC wins, this is all a done deal. All four teams are set and the only "drama" is seeding.
Worst case scenario is that BOTH TCU and USC lose. While I am in the camp that neither team should be penalized and should remain in the playoffs. You can count on ESPN to drum up as much drama (ie BS "advance stats") as they can to trump up their viewership of their idiotic 4 hour selection show.....
November 30th, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
Conference championship games are useless.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:37 AM ^
All about the $$$$
November 30th, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
The nightmare is if GA and either USC or TCU lose. Then M is the 1 and we have to go through OSU first, then likely GA in the NC... No thanks.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:11 AM ^
They won't do that. They'll figure out a way to not have that rematch in the semis.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:15 AM ^
Not necessarily. It's possible, but I think if TCU were to lose they would no longer get a conference champion bump and could potentially fall to #4. I know they say they don't do it, but I think the committee will do everything they can to avoid a rematch in the opening semifinal, especially for the #1 team.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
OSU is alive because there is no backup SEC team that would make sense to slide into the 4th spot. Also we will have to get used to the idea of playing OSU more than once, that is the future of college football. UGA and Bama played twice last year, USC and Utah playing twice this year, TCU and KState etc. It's only going to be more common once they go to 12 team playoffs and if the Big 10 gets rid of the divisions when USC/UCLA join. Just the way it is and like others said we have a better shot against OSU a second time than UGA.