And so it begins - the NFL Draft opt-outs from bowl season are heating up

Submitted by oriental andrew on December 11th, 2023 at 10:51 PM

Just saw the news that Drake Maye is now opting out of UNC's bowl game. 

This follows Sam Hartman (notre dame) and Caleb Williams (USC) also opting out of their bowl games. 

We also have Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA),  Brenden Rice (WR, USC - Jerry Rice's kid), Ainias Smith (WR, TAMU), Max Melton (CB, Rutgers), 2 safeties and a DT from Miami (FL), CB/LB/DT from Clemson, Chop Robinson (DE, PSU), Braelon Allen (RB, Wisco), and a bunch more I didn't feel like naming. 

This site seems to have a good running list: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2023-college-football-news-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-player-injuries-transfer-portal-more

Main questions are if we see any significant opt-outs from teams like ohio state and Georgia who are out of the CFP. Depending on who opts out, could get pretty ugly for the buckeyes combined with all the kids already in the transfer portal. Harrison, Egbuka, Stover, Tuimoloau, and Burke are all projected by various mocks as potential first-rounders. 

mrlmichael

December 11th, 2023 at 11:39 PM ^

Interestingly, a lot of the smaller games are more watchable than the NY6 games. The NY6 games are are supposed to be the top games, featuring the top teams/brands, but they also have a higher concentration of NFL Draft talent willing to opt out since they didn't make the CFP.

A lot of the lower level games feature Power 5 teams trying to cement a nice season or program building win, especially for those with new coaches or rebuilds, and Group of 5 teams who truly view the game as a reward and the culmination of their good season.

NittanyFan

December 11th, 2023 at 11:58 PM ^

Yep.  NYD6 Bowls have become a sort of "no-mans-land" of the Bowl season.

Among the "lower-tier" Bowl games, however --- I see games like (among others) Miami vs Appalachian State, JMU vs Air Force, Kansas vs UNLV, VT vs Tulane, NC State vs K-State and Oklahoma vs Arizona --- those all strike me as interesting and likely entertaining, for the reasons you mentioned.

crg

December 12th, 2023 at 7:04 AM ^

Not true at all - most bowl games are *far more interesting* than the "average" game during the normal season.  Here is why:

1)  The bowls try to make every game a "close" matchup.  Obviously never perfect and sometimes one team is a clear favorite, nearly every bowl game is close to an equal match :  whether "good team" vs "good team" or "average team" vs "average team", almost every matchup is at least competitive on paper.  Contrast that to any regular season weekend, which might have a few interesting games but also full of a large amount of dreck... SEC team beating up FCS cupcake, Big Ten team beating up MAC cupcake, or in-conference "good team" pounding a celler-dwelling conference opponent.  Bowl games intentionally try to avoid this.

2)  Interesting and unusual matchups are part of the unique flavor of bowl season.  While we all love seeing good teams on the non-conference schedule, it's usually only one per season *at best*, and often it may be a retread (e.g. ND) rather than someone new.  The same usually goes for any major team - new & exciting out of conference matchups are rare... save during bowl season.  Here we get to see every FBS conference putting their better teams forward against other better teams... none of this clamoring for people to schedule Vandy, Indiana, Cal and Wake Forrest as a token "power conference" opponent.  You play someone that has a real chance of defeating you, but also counts as a solid victory if you win.

3)  Bowl season is a multi-day event.  Like March Madness, you get numerous days condensed of good, watchable games... no waiting an entire week or more for something to be on.  Christmas has one day of celebration.  Hanukkah has eight days.  Bowl Season (this year) has thirteen days (and in previous years many more), almost all crammed in the space between Dec 15th and Jan 2nd (and sometimes a few afterwards).  While also in parallel with times that many people have days off and can watch a mid-day game (or stream while at work), while also doing other holiday activities at home (or wherever)... what's not to enjoy?

4)  Why complain about *more* college football to see?  The season is nearly done and it will be a long time until late August comes around again.  Enjoy it while you can.

crg

December 12th, 2023 at 7:25 AM ^

This is what I hate about people making this a "business decision" - it makes all of it uninteresting.  People claim that somehow bowl games are "meaningless", yet the majority of the regular season games are equally "meaningless" anyway.  Do people here really care that we beat up on ECU, BGSU, IU, or Purdue?  Those games meant little aside from not getting upset... no one will remember them ten years from now.  Yet people still talk about memories they have from Rose Bowls (and others) of decades past - because they *do* mean something.

If a player only cares about their NFL money and the *very, very low* chance it might be threatened (people always point to Jake Butt yet ignore the 1000+  other players that competed in bowls that same season without suffering any significant injury... and even Jake's injury didn't end his career, he still got to play several seasons in the NFL), they're going to quit on the season early anyway.  And this has been happening more every year.  It was a just a couple years ago that an Oklahoma player shutdown his season in late Sept or early Oct to prepare for the draft (not injury driven) and this picks up more as we get to November.

People here often rail against those who "don't support the team" either enough or in the proper way but... if this is going to be a "business decision"... then why should *we* be spending hundreds/thousands of dollars every year and committing much of our time to attend/watch/follow this game in the first place?  As "consumers", we have far better options available to us as "business decisions" regarding our limited resources. 

College sports is supposed to be about *passion*, not business.

three_honks

December 12th, 2023 at 10:18 AM ^

The NIL/college contracts could be structured in the future to incentivize participation through the end of the season.

Of course, contracts can be broken, but if a college player is making $2m per year and his contract is structured, say, that it costs him $500k to sit out, then he might think twice.  (It might still be worth it, but at least the $ will be aligned with participation.)

ca_prophet

December 12th, 2023 at 6:20 PM ^

Maybe back in Teddy Roosevelt's day, but it's been a business for a long long time.

The employees (players) just weren't cut into the action until recently, and we consumers (fans) continued to believe the marketing long after we should.

So, yeah, maybe it would be nice if we had real amateurs playing for fun and pride, but that toothpaste is never going back in the tube.

 

crg

December 12th, 2023 at 6:50 PM ^

That's a very skewed way to look at the situation (and not technically accurate either - no school anywhere has their student-athletes listed as "employees" for simply playing a sport... although some may also have part-time jobs within the schools... I knew a tennis player who was also a paid undergraduate research assistant in a Bioengineering lab group).

Any legal status conferred on "revenue" sport student-athletes for simply participating in their school-sponsored sport must be granted equally to every student-athlete (and litigation may ultimately require that to be extended to other school-sponsored & operated student groups once that precedent has been breached, e.g. marching band, etc.)

UMForLife

December 11th, 2023 at 11:27 PM ^

Start thinking about Bowl games as prep for next year and next year starters, then the mindset changes for the fans. I am interested to see how the next year team looks for these teams.

crg

December 12th, 2023 at 7:35 AM ^

Are conference championship games that much more "meaningful" to someone who might be a lock first round pick?  While we don't see NFL-ready guys opting our of those (and end season rivalry week) games *as much* as we do the bowl season... it still happens.  And it will certainly increase in the future.  ... should Zinter have sat out the Game?

And what about those guys who get torn ACLs or other serious injuries in NY6 or other CFP games?

DaftPunk

December 12th, 2023 at 12:04 AM ^

Hardly surprising considering the careers at stake (I love Jake Butt on TV, but would have preferred to see him tearing it up at Your Corporate Name Here at Mile High.) 

It will be interesting to see the choices next year on the 8-12 ranked playoff teams with superstars with talent disproportionate to their team's ability to compete meaningfully for a championship.

OneEyedMooseSm…

December 12th, 2023 at 12:24 AM ^

I think you're on to a future trend here.  If you're a sure-fire NFL high draft pick but on #12 seed, do you just not risk it, shut it down and opt out?  We went as deep as possible this year in my living memory with 6 teams having a legit argument for being in the playoffs.*  I can't ever see a #12 to #8 seed running the table for a Natty.

*I said SIX, not SEVEN.  #7, no you don't belong.  SEVEN, now go lie down by your bowl and go to sleep.

funkywolve

December 12th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^

Kind of agree but you never know.  The expanded playoffs will help teams who have injuries earlier in the season and lose a couple games but are healthy by the end of the regular season. Conversely, kind of like this year, who starts having critical injuries at the end of the year?  FSU lost their QB, UM lost Zinter.  Last year, Corum was out for the playoffs.

 

Amazinblu

December 12th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^

Starting next year, the CFP will be a four game event for teams that aren’t seeded 1 through 4.

And, regardless of where “your team” is seeded in the CFP, next year - and going forward, the CFP will be four games over 4+ weeks.

Look at the national championship the next two years - those games will be played on January 20th & 19th respectively - for the next two seasons.

Amazinblu

December 12th, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^

OMG no… please.  IMO, they should have made it 8 teams.  12 teams - with arbitrary (Selection Committee) seeding - is too much.

Assuming the teams that play in the NC game next year will also have played in their conference’s Championship Game, they will have a 17 game schedule.

ToledoWolverine

December 12th, 2023 at 1:39 AM ^

There are 43 bowl games this year. I’m fairly certain these things lost their meaning long before opt outs were a thing. This is what happens when everyone gets a trophy, absolutely nothing special or interesting about a 6-6 team playing in the Mayo Bowl

edit: I’m replying to nobody in particular and exercising some recreational outrage. 

ShadowStorm33

December 12th, 2023 at 2:39 AM ^

Remember all the campaigning people did that JMU should be bowl-eligible (and I agree, it's stupid that teams moving up to FBS are ineligible for a few years)? Despite the NCAA still denying their appeal and ruling them "ineligible," JMU is going to a bowl anyway (along with RichRod and JSU) because there aren't enough 6+ win teams. And 5-7 Minnesota is in a bowl game too...