And so it begins - the NFL Draft opt-outs from bowl season are heating up

Submitted by oriental andrew on December 11th, 2023 at 10:51 PM

Just saw the news that Drake Maye is now opting out of UNC's bowl game. 

This follows Sam Hartman (notre dame) and Caleb Williams (USC) also opting out of their bowl games. 

We also have Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA),  Brenden Rice (WR, USC - Jerry Rice's kid), Ainias Smith (WR, TAMU), Max Melton (CB, Rutgers), 2 safeties and a DT from Miami (FL), CB/LB/DT from Clemson, Chop Robinson (DE, PSU), Braelon Allen (RB, Wisco), and a bunch more I didn't feel like naming. 

This site seems to have a good running list: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2023-college-football-news-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-player-injuries-transfer-portal-more

Main questions are if we see any significant opt-outs from teams like ohio state and Georgia who are out of the CFP. Depending on who opts out, could get pretty ugly for the buckeyes combined with all the kids already in the transfer portal. Harrison, Egbuka, Stover, Tuimoloau, and Burke are all projected by various mocks as potential first-rounders. 

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rice4114

December 12th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^

Yeah from what Im reading here there was a time the Citrus bowl meant you were in the hunt for a championship? How many bowls before the opt out thing were involved in championships? 2 at the most and it wasnt the Gator bowl. What I dont understand is why you played Week 15 as a 3 loss team vs Boston College but you opt out of a solid matchup in a bowl? Im not criticizing but why arent meaningless regular season games on the table?

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Blinkin

December 12th, 2023 at 4:29 AM ^

Which is just another reason why I contend there was nothing wrong with the pre BCS bowl system, and the BCS and CFP haven't actually fixed anything. They haven't totally eliminated controversy around who the national champion should be (see FSU), and it cost us all the lower bowls still being fun. 

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Ernis

December 12th, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^

Agree 100%. The BCS/CFP in a way killed the goose that laid the golden egg. It was done to consolidate easy money into fewer hands. The whole notion of determining a nat champ sans controversy was a sham all along - as long as the selection process is a shell game, and it always has been and will likely stay that way, instead of objective & consistent criteria - there will always be some grievance.

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Amazinblu

December 12th, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^

For the last 20’ish years, it’s pretty simple.  Just find a way to make sure you crown a team from the SEC as the national champion because “It just means more”.

Oh, the fact that several SEC states have no professional sports teams might just be a reason why college football is. “front and center”.

An aside, would Finebaum have any following if he was in a city / state with professional sports?

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Ernis

December 12th, 2023 at 7:44 AM ^

Eh, I get that this is how people perceive it, but it doesn’t really make sense.

What about the bowl games was objectively meaningful before the CFP? It’s a postseason game which impacts the overall record of the team for that season, and a player’s stat line. If you win or lose the game, it may determine whether or not the team is crowned nat champ. If your team wasn’t in position to possibly get that ”championship” going into bowl season, that was known in advance and only a handful of (undefeated) teams were contending anyway.

What’s really changed? I think the CFP is the proximal cause, but it’s overall a product of how much these decisions are increasingly transparent in being guided by profit motive, and the amount of money on the table is just gaudy, so players look at it as a business decision. 

What’s curious to me is, why bother playing in the CFP if the bowl game calculus is “I might get injured and there’s no incentive for winning a bowl game. It only helps the school and coaches.” The same is true of the CFP. I guess they really buy into the idea that the Dr Pepper Bowls are what it’s all about. That’s some damn good marketing/gaslighting.

tl;dr- it’s a paradigm shift, and the CFP is a part of it, but the overall thrust is that the schools, tradition, pageantry, and just winning games for the sake of it matters less than what the TV networks claim and of course the all-mighty dollar. Now that it’s all business, the players are acting accordingly.
And to be clear, I don’t blame players at all for looking out for their interests in this paradigm. What I think the change highlights is how meaningless the bowl games have always been according to the criteria that are meaningful under the current paradigm, and much value/risk the players were providing/taking on in the traditional bowl system without compensation.

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goblu330

December 12th, 2023 at 8:10 AM ^

Agreed.  The obvious end point of this line of thinking is “why play college football at all?”  
 

My guess is opt outs will happen not infrequently for lower seeded CFP teams as well.  Frankly, now with NIL, I think the bowl games should be mandatory for players if they still value their degree.  If not, the power dynamic will shift too far the other way.  You are already seeing it with the portal.  It is out of control already, and what is being taught is “if at first you don’t succeed go somewhere that is easier for you.”  Not exactly a winning message.

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FB Dive

December 11th, 2023 at 11:32 PM ^

The CFP made the bowls matter less. The big bowls (NY6) became neat consolation prizes for good teams that missed out on the playoff, and the other bowls were small bowls to begin with. It stratified the bowl season in a way that made the outcomes of the bowls a lot less meaningful to whether a season is successful. It matters more which tier of bowl you make than it does whether you win it.

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goblu330

December 12th, 2023 at 6:33 AM ^

Not really.  Pre CFP everybody knew what teams were contending for the national title and nobody opted out.  Think of UM v Florida in 2007.  So many NFL players on the field and they all played.  There was nothing on the line but team mattered, they were together battling for a win with their brothers, why would they not play?

I think in the last 10-15 years, the focus of players has shifted more toward them personally and less toward team.  Commitment to something greater than themselves has become far less important and is not valued nearly as much as it used to be.  
 

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MI Expat NY

December 12th, 2023 at 7:40 AM ^

I think some of this is the consequences of going from pre-BCS bowl season to the BCS to the CFP (along with the proliferation of minor bowls).  If all season long all anyone can talk about is who is going to make the CFP (or BCS championship game), it's natural to feel a letdown and thus care less if you're in any other bowl. 

The other change that goes along with your theory is that there probably feels like a lot less pressure to prove yourself to NFL scouts in a big bowl game than there was 15-20 years ago.  By the time you get to bowl games these days, NFL draft-eligible players are known commodities.  Showing out in a single bowl game won't change much.   

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UMxWolverines

December 12th, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^

The problem is conferences have gotten so big and non regional, and all the talk has become about the playoff that it makes the season really not seem to mean much unless you make the playoff. It wasnt like this 10-15 years ago where everyone all across the country on social media argues about the playoff and tries to minimize every teams accomplishments (looking at you, ESPN). 

It was extremely difficult to make the championship game in a 1 vs 2 title game, so you played to win your conference and a BCS bowl game which were basically all "championship" games.

The schools closer to the bottom of conferences played to upset the top teams and for a decent bowl game. Now the gap between the top teams and bottom teams is so large it makes it almost all for nothing. 

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NCBlue22

December 12th, 2023 at 8:50 AM ^

It's an interesting question.  Clearly the CFP made the other bowls less meaningful, but that can't be the only reason. 

I think 1 big reason is that is now 'acceptable' and maybe even encouraged by the NFL.  It maybe used to be a red flag for not wanting to compete or whatever, but now that it is so commonplace that the NFL doesn't care.  Simply put - it is now a common practice where it used to not be.  There's a lot to that IMO.  

I remember when Christian McCaffrey did it - as one of the first - turned out okay I think.

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GLORY

December 12th, 2023 at 6:31 AM ^

Can you see JJ, Corum and Sainristil sitting out their final game at Michigan?  Can't fathom.  Not saying it's the right decision, but I just don't see it given their identity.  Further, can you see others not follow suit?  It's the culture.  Maybe I'm just doused in M, but just can't imagine any player from this team opting out.

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