Some Thoughts on the First Game and a "See You Later"
Hey yall, rough night last obviously. I will probably refrain from visiting the board for a while. Michigan Football fan internet in general is going to be negative for my taste for the next few weeks, which is predictable after an opening loss. The joke all offseason was obviously that the overreactions following this game would be insane, and boy, has that been true. So, I figured I'd give my takes and say see you all down the road some.
I actually didn't walk away from last night feeling bad about the season. I think we got hit in the mouth by a very solid Notre Dame team (who I certainly underestimated offensively) for the first quarter, and then, despite outplaying them the rest of the way, didn't have enough to comeback. We ended up out-gaining Notre Dame and out-possessing them as well. We held them to 69 (nice) yards of offense in the second half - after getting worked for a quarter, the defense was solid. Small consolations, but the game ended fairly even despite falling on our face out the gate. In the end, penalties and turnovers made our deficit insurmountable. Certainly can't lose both the turnover and penalty battle on the road against a top 15 team. The OL didn't hold up well in pass pro, DPJ had a bad night in the punt return game, and clock management was pretty bad in the 4th quarter. Those were our main failures outside of the penalties.
Many, including myself compared this game to Florida last year going into it. Turns out it was more Utah in 2015. A good opponent in a true road game while we are breaking in a new QB and some new offensive things as well. In both the Utah game and the ND game, we ended up out-gaining the opponent, out-possessing the opponent, but lost the turnover battle, and lost 24-17. Utah went on to have a really good year, and they were even ranked #1 in the polls at one point. Let's see what Notre Dame does. I was down on them because of the guys they lost on offense, but their OL doesn't look to have fallen off too much (they couldn't stop Gary and Winovich from getting the edge but not many can), their WRs and TE are still good, and they have sufficient RBs with Wimbush to have an adequate ground game until Williams comes back from suspension. My prediction for them pre-season was 8-4, but after seeing them play I think that's a team that will win 10 or 11 games. They get Stanford at home, and it's hard to say what Virginia Tech and USC will be by the time Notre Dame plays each of them on the road.
As for us, I think there were a good amount of positives. For one, Patterson is the real deal. He's incredibly smooth, he's really accurate especially on the rollout, and his legs are such plus, despite not getting to use them a ton last night. We would have lost this game 31-7 with any QB we had playing last year. His final stat line was good-ish. The INT is not great (though there was a flag thrown at the snap and I'm not sure that he didn't think it was a free play), but 67% completion, 227 yards, and 7.6 ypa against what was the 7th S&P Passing Defense last year is fairly solid. Obviously if he could have balanced the INT with a touchdown, then you're talking about winning the game. The main negative of Patterson's performance last night was the negative sack yardage, something we knew came with the territory with Shea. He ran us out of field goal range once. Don't know if we would have made the FG, but you can't have that on the road against a top team. Higdon ran very well. That's a very good front seven, and he regularly got downhill, made smart cuts, and picked up first downs. The receivers looked pretty good on first watch, as well. I think there's certainly been improvement there. Perry catches everything, Nico is ready to be a starter, and DPJ was dependable. Good group to pair with a great TE unit (who really needed more catches last night). Then, as mentioned before, the defense was mostly outstanding after a horrible first quarter. 69 yards and 3 points in the second half. Gary and Winovich blew by their men all night long, possibly even too fast at times. The defense is fine, and I think the offense will become fine over the next three games which all feature opponents that have never even heard of playing dorfense.
So, yeah. My take is to stay calm, and reserve judgment for down the line. This team will be 5-1 going into the Wisconsin game. This season won't ultimately be defined by the Notre Dame game, but the three game stretch of Wisconsin, MSU, Penn State. With Wisconsin at home and MSU and PSU getting torched by group of five offenses this week, nobody should be trembling in their boots for those games. I saw nothing yesterday to say that, if this team improves week to week, we can't win those three games. If you told us that we would lose Metellus for the whole game, Devin Bush for large chunks, and Patterson for large chunks of the second half, nearly all of this board would have predicted a close loss anyways. Writing this was mostly just cathartic for me - I'm obviously not going to walk anyone who thinks Harbaugh is trash and Michigan should scrap the program away from the ledge - so, if you read all this, go outside, spend time with family, do something other than wallow today, you psychopath. I'll see you after we string some easy wins together and the moods change.
P.S. Fuck Braylon Edwards. Honestly. What a drunk, washed up, bitter dickhead.
September 2nd, 2018 at 6:39 PM ^
The board isn't too bad during the week, mostly just on weekends after a loss or wins where everything isn't perfect.
I also still have a positive outlook and saw some good stuff during the game. I plan on rewatching tonight.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^
Excellent thoughts, Dr., and thank you for talking me down of the ledge.
You know, I tell myself there are so many instances of teams suffering a bad early loss and rebounding to do great things (MSU in 2013, OSU in 2014, Penn State in 2016). I say, "Why can't that be us? We have the talent, we can make adjustments, we can get better and make a run like any one of those teams."
But when is the last time we really improved over the course of the season? Besides 2015, I think it probably dates back to the Carr days. It certainly never happened under RR and Hoke. And that's what bugs me ... Why can so many other teams get better in-season while we seem stuck in neutral?
I really hope you are right, Doc. Although I am skeptical, I will still be cheering on the Wolverines every Saturday. All season. It's what I do. I love this fucking team so much I hate them.
Anyway, I will miss your commentary if indeed you are taking time off from the board. But I certainly understand why you might want to.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:03 PM ^
I mean, we improved over the season last year, it just wasn't enough. Really 2016 as well for stretches until Iowa, and then Speight injury.
September 3rd, 2018 at 1:19 PM ^
UM's improvement over the season under JH has been masked by some really critical late season injuries and the fact that UM has had its toughest games late under JH (OSU is always the toughest game but playing Wisky late plus the bowl game with injuries at QB makes it hard to see improvements). This team needs some confidence..hopefully these next 3 games help with that.
This team probably needed a pre-season type patsy to start just to make a clear break from the end of last year. I think fans need to keep in mind that these young men are young and opening on the road at night at ND was a huge ask. The team will grow and improve and with that I think they will bounce back and have a great season when all is said and done.
September 2nd, 2018 at 7:30 PM ^
I definitely don't feel bad about the season after losing on the road to a higher ranked team in the first game of the season by a touchdown. Outside of the sluggish, undisciplined start and the awful clock management to end the game it wasn't as bad as some people think. This doesn't mean I think they played well. There are some things they need to improve immediately (not having slow, undisciplined starts, their 4th quarter clock management, and pass blocking against stunts to name a few), but the sky isn't falling at this point.
However, I think a lot of people aren't factoring in how good this Notre Dame team is. When playing a good team they're going to make plays. ND have one of the best O-Lines in the FBS...between 7th and 12th depending on the source with 2 NFL caliber linemen. They also some solid NFL talent at each level of their D...Tillery, Hayes, Coney, Tranquill, and Love. This Notre Dame team could end up being the 2nd or 3rd best team they play this season (behind Ohio State and even with or slightly better or worse than Wisconsin).
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:14 PM ^
Mantis, thanks for the rational analysis. I hope you don't stay away from the board long. I always appreciate your insight.
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:41 AM ^
IBC Chapter 16.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:27 PM ^
Good post DMT. Always enjoy your comments. As bad as this game felt, if Michigan makes the botched FG and if Hawkins could have come up with the pic (he had good coverage), M wins the game.
I think many us expected better defensive play, especially in 1st half and much better o line play.
I really thought QB play was good. I thought Shea did ok but the play of Dylan left me wanting to see more of him. He a huge kid. He looks very ready to play and command.
I also hate the 1st game big game. Just think many of the other programs have it right in playing an "easy" first game that gives them the chance to scrimmage. NFL has 4 of them (I realize this is to work down rosters) but even my local high school had two preseason scrimmages.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:46 PM ^
I think that I speak for many lurkers like myself (the silent majority)--always appreciate your content/comments Dr. Toboggan.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:04 PM ^
Good luck, God Speed and GoBlue!
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:46 PM ^
I understand your sentiment, Mantis, but for my part I hope that you just take a break for a few days and then slide back in late in the week (when the vitriol dies down) or next week (when, presumably there's a nice win to talk about--if not, disregard this message). This place is better with you around.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:07 PM ^
Seconded. I really appreciate your contributions DrMT. Great Diary to complement your always welcome presence on the blog. I always slow down and read your comments (just like I skip over some others....) You're one of the pillars holding everything up.
September 2nd, 2018 at 11:36 PM ^
I understand why, and don't blame you. But I'll miss your contributions.
My take after watching this morning was that the OL stunk it up after we were given so much hype about the improvement. That's really the only thing that bothers me. Seeing how they played (the OL), the offensive game plan doesn't bother me. They didn't give, they played well - for the most part. I'm disappointed, but okay with it. Hope you come back soon!
September 3rd, 2018 at 12:33 AM ^
Don't let the trolls bother you. I skim over their posts. We all wanted Michigan to win but they came up short and made too many mistakes on offense and defense. I think they fought hard in the 2nd half and did make a game out of it in the 4th. Hopefully the OT improve and the offense can score a bunch of points in future games.
September 3rd, 2018 at 1:08 AM ^
Maybe there wouldn't be so much vitriol from so many if so many didn't constantly overestimate Michigan and underestimate our opponents, especially good ones on the road in places we have a history of struggling in.
It was an utterly predictable loss, given that we were on the road facing a physically talented ND team led by a very good coach, and we still have unsolved OL issues, a defense that lost its best player, and a new QB getting his feet wet in a Michigan uniform. But in typical MGoBlog fashion, all that is hand-waved away because ol' purple face is an asshole and to hell with Notre Dame.
I know this is a fan board and fans are always going to be fanatic, but the extent of the overwhelming MGoBlog consensus predicting a Michigan victory over ND—in many cases a double-digit victory—revealed a collective irrational optimism that is as comical as it is chronic.
A number of more talented Michigan teams than this one have gone down to South Bend and lost, but predictably that's ignored because history doesn't matter so we can ignore the reasons why so many games at Notre Dame have gone the way they did last night.
The same irrational MGoBlog herd-like optimism is going to be the dominant feature of the run-up to the MSU and OSU games. If we shit the bed on the road like we've been doing for over a decade, the reaction after the game will be much worse than last night's disappointment.
September 3rd, 2018 at 7:26 AM ^
There is no reason for a program of Michigan’s stature to EVER open the season on the road.
And really, there is no reason for us to ever schedule a competitive non-conference game. If we win our conference, we will be in the playoff, having beaten OSU, MSU, PSU, and the Western division champ.
September 4th, 2018 at 9:39 AM ^
Boy did I scream this from the mountaintops the minute the game was announced. The general reaction from the board though was two-fold:
1. We're Michigan. We're not afraid of anybody and the tougher the schedule, the better! Our SOS will certainly put us in the final four when we run the table.
2. Harbaugh wanted ND on the schedule so Warde had no choice but to put them on as soon as possible. The fact that we opened on the road when the last game played with them was on the road was just an unfortunate development.
And you think this reaction was rough? Wait till NEXT year when we've got to play them right in the freaking middle of our B1G schedule instead of having a bye week.
September 4th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
We've basically screwed ourselves through 2026 with our non-conference scheduling, too. Every single year we play a traditional power, half the time on the road. I don't know why we would intentionally put ourselves at such a disadvantage.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:12 AM ^
Stan had pretty much the same take on his son BTW.
September 3rd, 2018 at 9:23 AM ^
Great take. My thoughts exactly!
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
"With Wisconsin at home and MSU and PSU getting torched by group of five offenses this week, nobody should be trembling in their boots for those games. I saw nothing yesterday to say that, if this team improves week to week, we can't win those three games"
Its always amazes me that fans reasonably point out that we can improve and learn- and then assume that other teams won't also
September 3rd, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^
September 3rd, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
Agree with and appreciate your analysis, Doc. I also typically step away from this blog after a tough loss. The “eat your young” mentality here after a loss is too much negativity for me. The world is not perfect, and often IMO fandom requires a bit more blind faith and support than many here seem willing to give. If I didn’t feel like Harbaugh was “all in” it would be different, but I feel he’s as frustrated as we are. He’s too competitive not to be.
See you back here soon.
September 3rd, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
I’m sorry to hear this Mantis but I can completely appreciate your position. This team will get better as the year goes on and they will surprise on occasion. We aren’t Alabama yet and we may never be but honestly I’m far happier with the program than most people. I don’t listen to the blogosphere much primarily because these same people usually want to fire Beilein as well. It’s the nature of the beast when people are impassioned about something. You want to control an outcome you can’t and rage against it for that reason. Getting perspective in these situations is difficult. I recommend people come to the realization that it’s just a game and there are far greater points of happiness in this world.
See you in the future Mantis - your sensibility will be missed but your need for sanity is understandable:).
September 3rd, 2018 at 8:51 PM ^
Agree with pretty much everything you've laid out. I think we forget you can't just snap your fingers and say 'we're back'. The B1G is at a peak none if us has seen and has some of the best teams in the nation in our division. The revolving qb door doesn't make it any easier, amd Warde's management of the football schedule has been far worse than the teams worst loss. Good few weeks should calm the masses...I hope. I also hope it provides a time for resolve for the team.
September 4th, 2018 at 3:49 AM ^
What do you think about the Northwestern and Maryland games, which are right before Wisconsin? I believe the strength of the Northwestern defense is the DL, and Maryland definitely looks competent.
September 4th, 2018 at 9:35 AM ^
Sorry to see you go Dr, even if it's just for a little while. Even though I'm one of the people firmly in the "Black Pit..." Brian described it was nice to see the thoughts of someone firmly in the optimistic camp as you are.
September 4th, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^
Thanks for your sharing your observations and thoughts DrMantisToboggan. Good read.
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