You've got the beginnings of a good analysis here. But I think you need to look at all rushing attempts and all passing attempts. There were 34 rushing attempts against Iowa, and 30 passing attempts. That's 53% rushing by attempts. We got 66 rushing yards and 147 passing yards. That's 31% rushing by yardage. Etc.

As for what we expect in the Rose Bowl...look, the Harbaughffense is the Harbaughffense. There will be tweaks and counters and evolutions based on the stuff we've run all year, but anyone thinking that somehow we're going to unleash a wide open light-em-up offense like in Lloyd Carr's final game...hasn't been paying attention for the last 9 years.

In the past 5 games, JJ has thrown 1 TD and 1 INT. He's rushed for 146 yards and 3 TDs all season, and none  of those TDs came in the past 7 games. 

The Moore/Harbaugh Lizard Brain has been in full effect since...Purdue? At some point, you are what your numbers say you are, and I think we're at that point.

I will GLADLY have my crow with barbecue sauce and Zehnder's Chicken Seasoning if I'm wrong here, but I don't think I am.

Thanks for this, OP! 

I think in some cases, like Penn State, avoiding the passing game was necessary. They started out trying to pass the ball, but JJ was under pressure every time he dropped back. But in other cases, it's hard to see why we've been so conservative, especially when JH said he was aiming for that 50-50 balance at the beginning of the season.

To answer your questions:

1. In the end, I'll trust the coaches because they know more than I do. It's hard to argue against a strategy that's been winning. But it seems like it's been more difficult than it needed to be at times.
2. I don't expect too much to change for the Rose Bowl. 'Bama has some good pass rushers and if the RT position doesn't get sorted out, JJ could be running for his life. They also have a good secondary. My hope is that they can scheme some things up for Edwards like Seth was talking about.

Just a question: do you have data on pass/run plays by down? Along with PopeLando's suggestions, I think this could be useful. 

Play to your strengths. Defense is stout and tightens as the team learns the opponent so control the clock and keep the D fresh. Shorten the game and limit opponent possessions especially if high powered.  

Keep them in front of you and shorter high velocity throws minimize interceptions. Tight ends are extra blockers of note and can exploit linebacker safety coverage by walling off the defenders with big bodies to move the chains.

Seems a statistical approach to play a game few others do as well.

Excellent analysis and very enjoyable to read.

To keep it brief, our CFP experience tells us that our opponent, with a month to prepare, will stop our Plan A run-first game. With our OL issues in 2023, this will be even more pronounced.

Therefore, it's imperative that we break tendencies on offense. JJ reads/keeps have to be on. We need to utilize play-action. Edwards as a receiver needs to be a bigger part of the offense. It would be nice to see RPOs. We need to be sure not to tip plays based on formation and motion. We have to utilize the intermediate-level passing game and the middle of the field, especially against their LBs.

I don't think anyone is expecting a total overhaul of the offense, but it's tendency-breakers like what I've outlined that could keep our offense on track. Alabama will score -- our offense needs to do its part.

 Harbaugh made comments about wanting to be closer to 50/50 run pass both in terms of attempts and yardage. 

I always took that to mean a 50/50 balance when the game is in question, and not the overall season numbers.  The huge number of blowouts we've had, which led to JJ almost never playing in the 4th quarter before November, is going to skew the numbers.

Then you have the PSU game, a clear outlier in which JJ's health and our inability to protect him on the right side of the line were certainly factors.  (It could also be that Harbaugh's absence influenced the play-calling, although this is impossible to know for certain.)

If you restrict the dataset to only possessions with JJ playing QB, I think we probably see a closer balance, especially outside of the PSU game.

If I were the coach, I would break tendencies and just be more creative with the play calling. I wouldn't abandon successful play calls that have worked, but you also have take what the defense gives you if they are hell bent taking something away. The playoff game will definitely be a chess match.

To be a contrarian to the OP's statement that JJ's 9.2 YPA isn't very good; he finished 11th in the country in that statistic.  Noteable QBs he finished ahead of were: Kyle McCord, Michael Penix, Quinn Ewers, Sam Hartman, Jordan Travis, and Drake Maye.

Did you happen to track downs? I wonder what the rate on first down was, seemed like we were 80%+, especially towards the end of the season. 

If we beat bama 30-24, i'll be happy.