9/3/2022 – Michigan 51, Colorado State 7 – 1-0

There's no real way around it, folks: the main talking point coming out a shellacking of a very bad team is who did what at quarterback. I extend a grumble towards the AP for framing a not quite generic enough press conference answer from Cade McNamara like so:

McNamara unhappy after No. 8 Michigan beats Colorado St 51-7

One grumble, extended.

But also I, like everyone else, was extending grumbles when Michigan's offense did not seem like a well-oiled death machine. Instead it was more or less last year: hiccups, moving the ball between the twenties, red zone difficulties. This is not my beautiful house. McNamara started out the season by not doing the things he's supposed to do better than his competition, like complete basic passes to move the sticks.

Three of his throws on the first couple drives were inaccurate. Maybe more alarming is that McNamara did not attempt anything down the field. We're not talking bombs. A seam, a post, a dig, a deep out: these did not happen. This was in part because CSU is running some DJ Durkin stuff with a safety playing in the parking lot, but this was an audition. You don't get the part by mumbling in the background.

Similarly, if McNamara's going to stay in front because he's reading things better that did not show up either. The throw to Erick All that was nearly intercepted probably would have been complete if All hadn't stumbled, but that was a TE angle on third and ten that's getting tackled short of the sticks unless All does something heroic. Meanwhile Roman Wilson is going to be wide open on a corner route to the field:

That play even looks like it's supposed to be ooh shiny for that cornerback to the bottom as he gets Donovan Edwards motioning to him, but McNamara made a pre-snap decision to look left and take a six yard pass on third and ten.

Turn a 61-yard screen pass into a more typical 8-yard one and McNamara averaged 4.6 yards an attempt while completing half his passes. One Bell drop aside this could not be placed on his receiving corps. The operative theory for how McNamara stays in front of the other guy with the cannon arm and Corum speed is that he is a relentless metronome of efficiency. If he's not, it's JJ McCarthy's job to lose.

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McCarthy did nothing to lose it during his second half cameo. It was remarkable how much easier everything suddenly felt. One power play with two DL charging at McCarthy and one wide open arc read keeper, touchdown. The entire stadium goes "hmm," except for the various McCarthy Yahoos in the stands who have been calling for him since McNamara's first incompletion. They are looking around, big-boned and fey, daring anyone to dispute their righteous quest to bench the starter.

Kick a successful McCarthy-era RB run and you'll find a Ram looking up McCarthy well after that is a reasonable thing to do. McCarthy didn't tear it up in the air. He did calmly hit a seven yard out to the field on third and five. He looked calm and collected and generally on par with McNamara when it came to the metronome stuff.

The days here are so early that we can't say much of anything for sure, but if they're at all close when it comes to the basics it's going to be impossible to keep McCarthy off the field.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

CONSUME [Patrick Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Mazi Smith. Michigan went out of its way to make this section impossible to determine via box score alone. Seven sacks split between ten players; eighteen catches split between fifteen receivers. The defense rotated incessantly, and the starting QB was kind of meh.

I'm pretty sure Smith is going to come out with a big UFR score, though, because he was crushing back whoever he faced. He picked up 1.5 TFLs and half a sack, and three solo tackles is a meaningful stat for a nose. On a third and six in the second half when Michigan sent an exotic blitz, Smith was tasked with holding an edge and two CSU OL, clearly terrified of him, stuck with him the whole play.

So far so good for massive projections.

#2 Blake Corum. Got more than two offensive touches and hurdled a fool so here he is.

#3 Junior Colson. Also a beneficiary of actually getting a bunch of time. Ten tackles, many of them at or near the line of scrimmage, and as of yet no moments that pop out as him running fast in the incorrect direction.

Honorable mention: uhhhhh… Braiden McGregor, Eyabi Anoma, Derrick Moore and Jaylen Harrell all took turns turning in eye-opening edge rushes that may or may not mean anything. Rod Moore caught the ball thrown at him, very nice. Ronnie Bell had a nice catch and was the key block on the Roman Wilson TD; meanwhile Wilson is fast.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

8: Mazi Smith (#1 CSU)
5: Blake Corum (#2 CSU)
3: Junior Colson (#3 CSU)
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Eyabi Anoma (HM CSU), Derrick Moore (HM CSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU), Rod Moore (HM CSU), Ronnie Bell (HM CSU), Roman Wilson (HM CSU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

JJ McCarthy enters and immediately crumples the CSU run defense, first by drawing two guys when he's a decoy and then by scoring an easy TD on an arc read. Hits different.

Honorable mention: Any of seven different sacks. McGregor flushes the QB up in the pocket and Rod Moore takes advantage. Ronnie Bell's first catch matches up with a fortuitously timed review to allow Michigan Stadium time to offer their appreciation.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

McNamara throws behind a Cornelius Johnson drag route with a good shot at a touchdown and Michigan ends up kicking a field goal, giving off vibes that McNamara is pretty much what he was last year.

Honorable mention: Various commercial breaks. Erick All stumbles and CSU nearly gets a pick. Will Johnson gets beat on a fly route for the CSU TD.

OFFENSE

[Barron]

On the running quarterback. There's been some discussion on the wonkier parts of Michigan football twitter about whether a quarterback who runs a lot is even a thing anymore, really. It's true that there's been a shift away from the Tebow/Denard types who are runners first and foremost. OSU has gone from a team with run-first QBs to pass-first QBs to guys who are almost entirely pocket passers. CJ Stroud rushed for –20 yards last year.

But if you've got the guy who can throw and he also brings another element that is a major boost to even the most talented offense. OSU didn't have to run Justin Fields but he ended up with ~500 yards on 60 non-sack carries during his final, abbreviated year in Columbus. Adding 8.3 YPC on 7-8 carries a game is a significant chunk of efficiency in and of itself without even considering the impact that 11 v 11 run game has on the rest of your offense's efficiency.

A 2011-era QB with rudimentary passing ability isn't going to get it done a decade later, but if you've got the guy who gives you both it remains a huge advantage.

mountain goat [Patrick Barron]

Welcome back. Ronnie Bell caught a pass, sure. The above was the most Ronnie Bell thing executed on Saturday. Putting his guy in the sideline was the difference between the touchdown Roman Wilson collected and a nice gain of 10-15 yards. One lost step for Wilson is all CSU would have needed to close down the angle.

Very odd portion of the game. Michigan's grinding all-runs touchdown drive was made possible in part because CSU was reacting to McNamara like he was McCarthy. The easy Corum chunk to set up first and goal saw a DE fly way upfield of the split zone blocker and a linebacker hold outside in case the QB survived the DE:

topmost CSU DE and LB

A version of this happened on the previous two plays for reasons that are obscure. This is also unhelpful to McNamara because the chunk of the game where Michigan ran the best with him on the field was also a demonstration of how a QB you have to account for opens things up. Even if the guy you have to account for wasn't on the field.

Bumps. The offensive line did not perform up to expectations, in part because Ryan Hayes was held out. (Harbaugh said that he would be back for Hawaii.) That saw Karsen Barnhart enter at left tackle, and then a few snaps where Gio El-Hadi played guard and Keegan kicked out to left tackle when Barnhart was dinged. That'll hamper your performance. Barnhart is out again next week:

On how Karsen Barnhart is doing after leaving the Colorado State game injured:

He's got a sprained ankle. And yeah, probably not gonna be available this week. But he played really good.

As always with OL you really have to wait until UFR to make any definitive pronouncements. Trente Jones had an up and down day. On the one hand, he is apparently able to pull from right tackle.

On the other he got torched on two pass rushes, giving up a clothesline sack on McNamara. After Jon Runyan Jr I never make any OL proclamations until the player in question has retired from football. We'll see how it develops.

Short yardage back: unknown. Michigan's only short yardage play of the day was a fourth-and-one tempo sneak, so your guess is as good as mine. We did see the Cat Orji a couple times; Orji got stuffed on second and five and then scored Michigan's last touchdown. That might be your answer if Mullings is needed on defense and they apparently don't rate Dunlap.

Could work, especially if JJ gets the job and the Cat Orji is just a bunch of stuff Michigan is already repping a bunch.

[Barron]

Ok but not like that. "Donovan Edwards should try to make guys miss" was our offseason TL;DR on him, and yes he should. Just not on third and five when he has picked up five yards. That's how you pick up four yards on third and five.

RPS enjoyment. I liked this variation on arc read:

Instead of trying to block a guy you run a route and the guy blocks himself. Not something new, but it certainly seems like the McCarthy run package has a significant amount of depth.

DEFENSE

graaargble bargle [Barron]

Too good to be true? The bulk of the offseason fretting was about whether Michigan would get any pressure. It would have been a real bad sign if Colorado State's QB was permitted to sit in the pocket and survey; instead he was under siege to the tune of seven sacks and plenty more hits.

Some of the pressure is stuff we anticipated preseason. Mazi Smith crushed guys backwards, and Jesse Minter dialed up some unusual blitzes. That was within the realm of expectation. Four different weakside ends turning in +2 UFR pass rushes—and Braiden McGregor getting three—was not. I think I'm in pump-the-brakes mode, though. When seemingly everyone Michigan runs out at WDE is knocking CSU tackles over like they're weeble-wobbles that might say more about the opposition than Michigan's edge guys. Should Jaylen Harrell be knocking over a 325 pound guy with one arm?

I mean, this effort by Harrell is the stuff wins are made of.

That's a 325# 5th year senior at tackle who's played 45 career college games, and Harrell puts him on his keister.

Glorious. pic.twitter.com/8ZEJSIOGLu

— Due# (@JDue51) September 4, 2022

That guy is big and experienced, but last year he was a guard for FIU. Since Harrell hasn't even flashed something like that before I'm reserving judgment… possibly for a month.

FWIW, Harrell did get around the left tackle (a redshirt sophomore in his first start, so who knows) reasonably quickly a couple times. Possible he's made a leap.

git em [Bryan Fuller]

All that said. That performance does alter expectations. McGregor's INT-forcing flush was opposite Taylor Upshaw, who the season preview noted was a guy who gets around at nine or ten. McGregor gets around at eight:

both DEs

McGregor's successful rip-through lets him bend around the corner and that's a forced fumble a decent chunk of the time. Later he came back with a rip inside:

Bad RT and all that but prioritize vibes: that looks like something that's going to work on much better OL. McGregor rips the arms down and swims through that guy in a flash.

somehow this is a freshman [Bryan Fuller]

We knew they were listing Derrick Moore at 279 but seeing him in person is remarkable. To say he doesn't look like a freshman doesn't quite cover it. He is in the Taco Charlton first-off-the-bus mode. And he flashed more than just the speed rush that was purportedly his only move; his best rush in this game was a speed-to-power moment where he flung the LT backwards and won inside.

Anoma looked big and fast and much more impressive than the guy who was a bit player in UT-Martin's playoff games last year. Unfortunately, his sack was greatly aided by the RT having the wrong snap count. He did turn in a couple of good moments in the fourth quarter, with a rush around the corner that was close to a sack and then driving a guard into the QB's lap on the Johnson TD allowed.

Depth chart clarity. The DL rotation cleared up a lot of confusion about who's where. I'm going to stick with 4-3 nomenclature since that was the vast bulk of the deployment:

• ANCHOR: Morris, Upshaw, Welschof
• WDE: Harrell, Anoma OR McGregor OR Moore

I don't think we saw a passing-down package with two of the rush edges but you have to figure that's coming as soon as they have enough faith that's not going to result in massive scramble lanes.

Also helpful in sacking the QB: weird stuff. Michigan threw a lot of looks at CSU and displayed a propensity for late checks after the opposition set their protections:

There might be 2 people that were excited about this play. And it's not the result, but rather the disguising of the coverage.

Michigan lines up in a certain look, lets the QB & line make their calls, then gives a late shift. And then a later shift lol

Me likey. pic.twitter.com/4BDNfrvoCm

— Due# (@JDue51) September 4, 2022

CSU's QB was frequently forced to come off his first read because Michigan dropped someone unexpectedly. This is all slants and the QB has nowhere to go because Upshaw backs off into a short zone underneath the primary read:

Like the pass rush this is something we have reserve judgment on until such time as Michigan plays a reasonably competent QB. Which is Taulia Tagovailoa, I guess?

[Barron]

File away for later. At the beginning of the second half CSU got a first down and went tempo, snapping the ball at 30 seconds. Michigan was lined up and not looking at the sideline; also they did not run a vanilla defense but had Will Johnson blitz from the boundary and Makari Paige from safety. CSU's off tackle run gained two yards.

Michigan wasn't quite lined up on the next snap, which was also tempo, but Sainristil was able to beat a block on a WR screen and get it down for a similarly minimal gain. I'll take one clear win and one sort of dubious but ok event over last year. Harbaugh on Minter:

On his first impressions of Jesse Minter:

Really good. I mean, the headsets were clean, smooth. The operations were clean, smooth in all three phases. Thought it was really good. He's a calm, cool, collected guy. And just the whole operation, signaling, communication was A-plus-plus, from what I saw

Minter's been around the block in college so hopefully we see a meaningful improvement against College Crappe.

eep [Barron]

Welcome to college football, Will Johnson. Hotshot freshman corner Will Johnson got attacked over the top twice and got out of phase twice. On the first he was able to make a last ditch swat at the ball and contribute to an incompletion; on the second Colorado State scored their only touchdown.

Drag issues. Michigan's only consistent issue in this game was getting beat on drag routes for chunks despite playing zones that should be good against them. Moten and Sainristil appeared to get sucked out of position by other routes and gave up leverage.

SPECIAL TEAMS

[Barron]

Guy finds role. Eamonn Dennis was a punt gunner and managed two tackles on two returnable punts against a tricky slot guy. Harbaugh said he'd be special teams player of the week, which sounds like it will be good for morale.

Specialists are specialists. Perfect impeccable gentlemen.

The Henning thing was fine. CSU touched the punt but did not down it. At that point it's a freebie for the returner. If he touches it and gets obliterated and turns the ball over it just goes back to the spot where the punting team touched it. If he picks it up and runs for a touchdown he gets a touchdown.

Mr. Rugby Guy has some hideous luck. I don't think I've ever seen three consecutive line-drive rugby punts check up immediately upon hitting the ground. That could easily have robbed CSU of 50 yards of field position. Not sure there was anything Henning could done about those hypothetical rolls, since we're eyeing him owlishly until such time as he establishes himself as a person who does the right thing on punt returns all the time.

MISCELLANEOUS

Now there's a guy with a hat. Chairs now have hat guy:

[Barron]

I'm sure we'll find out what's the deal with this guy at some point. He's got a hat.

Polish. Michigan was hit with one penalty in this game, a holding call deep into the second half. The offense got to the line promptly. Michigan spent no timeouts on organizational issues. I compulsively check the playclock when Michigan gets a check from the sideline, and if there was a snap that even approached a delay of game I don't remember one. This was an exceptionally un-frustrating opener.

Iowa facts! A 7-3 win for the Hawkeyes but not, you know, the usual way to win 7-3:

so i dug into newspaper archives and, at least in Division I, every team that's a) won a game b) with 7 points c) since 1981 has done so by scoring a touchdown.

except iowa today. https://t.co/0NtR5HN6LF

— Ryan Nanni (@celebrityhottub) September 4, 2022

The Big Test in week five now doesn't seem like that big of a test. Iowa has two scholarship receivers and lost Tyler Lindenbaum and Tyler Goodson. But they do have Spencer Petras back, so they've got that…

Worst Total QBR in a W since '13 (started, min. 10 dropbacks, P5 only):

1.1: S. Petras, Iowa (2022 vs So Dak St)
2.2: H. Johnson, Northwestern (2021 vs Ind St)
2.7: R. Finley, NC St (2016 vs ND)
2.7: T. Rodemaker, FSU (2020 vs JSU)
2.8: S. Thompson, K-State (2017 vs UCLA)

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 5, 2022

Nevermind.

HERE

Best And Worst:

Rest assured I’ll give a (moderate) amount of oxygen to the (couple) of sports talk HAWT TAKES that have emerged from this game, but I really want to remind all UM fans how they felt this time last year.  This was the vibe on this very site heading into the season, which had a hint of optimism (read the “I’ve got 2006 feelings around this team rallying with the talent”) but mostly floated around 7-8 wins and the fear that Harbaugh’s odometer was reading “irrelevant” and Michigan was along for the ride.  While Harbaugh’s tenure at UM hadn’t come close to approaching that of other fallen golden sons like, say, Scott Frost, there was still a concern that he had settled into “pretty good”, the zone UM has largely occupied for the past 30+ years.  Not really a contender for the conference title or playoff bids, though still better than all but a dozen or so college football teams.

State of our Open Threads:

As for yesterday, the thread was dominated by the "Cade" and "JJ" talk - 247 mentions to 138 mentions. Now, we know what Jim said, and of course, being astute fans, we went ahead and provided our thoughts on who should start all the same.

Various GIFs from the game featuring hell yes:

What would have happened if the twelve-team playoff was in place for the duration of the Harbaugh era. 

BYTCOM

BYTCOM:

It is time to enjoy football again by embracing the Northwestern Football Lifestyle: strive every year to make the Oh No We Commited to the Cartoon Ape NFT Naming Rights For Five Years in 2021 Bowl and also to make an opponents' fans extremely angry for losing to you.