Signgate The Seventh: It's All Bullshit
It's All Bullshit. Let us start with this: all of this is bullshit. Bruce Feldman is quoting coaches who think Connor Stalions was worth 21 points a game, Allan Haller is piteously moaning about how MSU players were in danger because Michigan may or may not know what plays they're running, and various Big Ten coaches are up in arms about the Threat To Competitive Integrity.
Bullshit. All of it.
This all came out, Stalions got suspended, everyone is fully aware that they should use wristbands against Michigan, and Vegas reacted by shoving all their Michigan lines towards Michigan. And nobody is using wristbands except the one school in the conference that has mastered Writing and is now able to build a library:
Notice JJ had to go to the wrist band.
— Due# (@JDue51) November 5, 2023
My anonymous source tells me that’s a reaction to *someone* sending Purdue video of our signs prior to the Big Ten Championship game last year.
Allegedly pic.twitter.com/mZZz0r2FDs
Haller's crocodile tears are doubly ridiculous since the only danger anyone was in in the M-MSU game was Braiden McGregor when he got speared in the helmet. And after a couple of drives of performatively having the quarterback get the call from the sideline, they just went back to signals. If it was really that dangerous, Haller should be fired for Endangering His Players. But it's not. It's bullshit.
If any of this was true, teams would not dare to signal in plays at all:
"People don't understand the seriousness of it," said another source. "How it truly impacted the game plan. To truly know if it's a run or a pass, people don't understand how much of an advantage that was for Michigan."
There was anger interspersed throughout the call, as one source described the sentiment as: "Every game they played is tainted."
Nobody in football really believes this gave Michigan the kind of material advantage that taints the season, not when Michigan has blown out every opponent on the schedule. But give James Franklin an opportunity to spout off anonymously in an attempt to placate the Penn State fanbase staring down another beatdown at the hands of Michigan or Ohio State, and he's going to take it.
This conference has an entire division failing the Brian Ferentz test. The other division has two of the worst P5 teams in America, Rutgers, a Maryland team that just lost to Northwestern, a Penn State team that can't move the ball against anyone with a pulse, and M/OSU. Maybe this conference's problems are not solely due to one low-level Michigan staffer with grandiose ambitions.
[After THE JUMP: rumor du jour.]
On to the rumor du jour. That would be that the Big Ten is fixin' to suspend Jim Harbaugh indefinitely tomorrow. This is ludicrous but I believe it. This post on the message board…
According to my source, Harbaugh will be suspended indefinitely on Monday. The university is preparing a lawsuit against the conference and asking for an immediate stay on the suspension. Grounds for the suit are violation of conference rules on investigations and irreparable harm from the timing of the suspension. My source works for the law firm representing UM in this case. The firm is working this weekend to determine whether to file the suit in local, state, or federal court as reaction time is critical.
This is about to get real.
…corresponds with a post Sam Webb made yesterday morning, and similar rumblings from Josh Henschke. There have been similar reports in the wider press. One bright side is that it seems like anything other than a Harbaugh suspension is not being considered:
There was talk, for instance, of any penalty not impacting players directly. A suspension of head coach Jim Harbaugh may be the most likely and “cleanest” penalty if one were handed down, one source said.
For 2023 it appears the fight is over Harbaugh and just Harbaugh.
UPDATE: I've been told the earliest this could happen would be Wednesday.
What then? As mentioned in a previous Signgate piece, Michigan has no intention of showing its belly to anyone on this. Santa Ono's letter to Petitti is polite but reads like an expensive lawyer went over it to lay out the various arguments Michigan will make to a judge in the event the Big Ten does something drastic:
"We, as would any other member of the Big 10, deserve nothing less. Our students, our coaches, our program — all are entitled to a fair, deliberate, thoughtful process. We are aware that other representatives of the Big10 are demanding that you take action now, before any meaningful investigation and full consideration of all the evidence. That is not something our conference rules permit. And we both know it is not what any other member would want if allegations were raised against their people or programs.
"The Big 10 has not informed us of any investigation of its own, as would be required under conference rules. And, to be clear, oral updates from NCAA enforcement staff do not and cannot constitute evidence, nor do we think the NCAA would ever intend for an oral update to be given that meaning or weight.
"The best course of action, the one far more likely to ascertain the facts, is to await the results of the NCAA investigation. But if you refuse to let the NCAA investigative process play out, the Big 10 may not take any action against the University or its players or coaches without commencing its own investigation and offering us the opportunity to provide our position. That is not just required by our conference rules; it is a matter of basic fairness."
Raj has some concerns that the commissioner doesn't actually have to have an investigation, but he's also the one who dug up the actual bylaws, and while the language is vague it seems like interpreting the part where they say the commissioner has the discretion to "pursue, or choose not to pursue" an investigation as "the commissioner can hit you with the ban stick without an investigation" is like the various Michigan lawyers who have gone over the NCAA rules with a fine-tooth comb in an effort to exonerate Connor Stalions as the world's greatest loophole exploiter. IMO, anyway. I am not a lawyer.
It seems like it would be enough to sue with, in any case. Webb has a piece up that interviews a Law-Talkin' Guy about said Ono letter and how it applies:
"You have to show that there's a likelihood the moving party will prevail on the merits. Now, this is the most important thing about what Ono did. In my view (it was) a very smart thing. He said, ‘look, you're not following your own procedures if you act.’ That's really a good hook to argue… that it's a good reason to preserve the status quo in terms of prevailing. Because it's unprecedented.”
Joe Simon, the law-talkin' guy, also brings up the fact that if there is a lawsuit both parties will have to go through discovery. This means everyone gets to ask everyone else for relevant documents and depositions, which will be extremely annoying, time consuming, and costly. And if Michigan's gone through their stuff and is confident the paper trail ends at Stalions, that's all upside for them.
A united front. Sounds like this isn't happening if Schlissel is still around, and that Michigan is unified in their opposition to being handed an in-season punishment for penny-ante crap:
I don't know if there is anything I am more proud of professionally than bringing @SantaJOno to Ann Arbor. #goblue
— Jordan Acker (@JordanAckerMI) November 5, 2023
Michigan on the offensive. The other piece of the story has been bubbling up in obscure references from insiders on Twitter and in pretty-much-as-obscure posts on the paysites. It seems clear that Michigan has some… stuff. They're going to start releasing that stuff. What exactly that stuff is not fully known, but if this guy who runs a reasonably successful independent college football site and just happens to be an OSU guy is aware of who the firm is…
I know exactly who the firm is. I know it isn't day's brother, and I don't know (and feel reasonably confident that none of the Michigan message board reporters know) who they signed an engagement letter with at all.
— Matt Brown (@MattBrownEP) October 29, 2023
…a dollar says Michigan does too. And maybe they have something that would tie that firm back to OSU. As Dan Wetzel points out, none of that would do anything with Michigan's case with the NCAA. It might help with the Big Ten since the sturm und drang from the conference is so extreme and looks set to suspend Harbaugh (or at least attempt to) based on no investigation at all. Live by the vibes, die by the vibes.
I've been as critical of Michigan as anyone.
— Aaron Torres (@Aaron_Torres) November 3, 2023
But the idea 13 ADs get to sit on a call with the commish (and 13 coaches before them) and call for an unprecedented ruling, with no real investigation, without Michigan being allowed to defend themselves?
Absolutely ABSURD
Two other things that have been hinted at: one is that Stalions got hacked and CommitCrimes.docx, amongst other things, were obtained illegally. Two is that Michigan may have evidence that someone taped their practices. Circumstantially, Michigan put up a privacy screen around their outdoor practice facility this summer.
Josh Henschke has another two or three things that he "knows" Michigan has evidence of, and a little bit of it is outside the paywall. Isaiah Hole has also been asserting that Michigan was going to start releasing stuff.
Back to Haller. Repeat after me: Michigan State is the most shameless athletic department in America. There's chutzpah and then there's this:
The most powerful message, according to sources familiar with the call, came from Michigan State athletic director Alan Haller. He mentioned the alterations Michigan State needed to undergo in order to prepare for its Oct. 21 game against Michigan after receiving a call Wednesday of that game week about Michigan having Michigan State's signals.
Haller worried about players potentially getting hurt because Michigan players, in theory, knew where they'd be going on plays.
He also referenced last year, when he said the Big Ten forced Michigan State to suspend numerous players after the tunnel incident in Ann Arbor before the league finished investigating the incident. He pointed out that it was hypocritical that this year, with Michigan under investigation, the league is now waiting for an investigation to unfold.
This last paragraph is a flat-out lie. Michigan State suspended the tunnel players. The Big Ten did not act until a full month after the assault, when they fined MSU 100k and suspended Khary Crump for the first eight games of 2023. That month-long investigation was about eight Michigan State players being filmed ganging up on two Michigan players in full view of multiple cameras.
It is probably true that the Big Ten asked MSU to suspend the players, but they were not forced to. In MSU's case getting the suspensions out of the way for a season that was already a 3-5 debacle in the hopes that 2023 would be better was the logical thing to do in any case; the Big Ten was doing MSU a favor. Michigan can point to this as an example of the procedures the Big Ten followed just last year, and surely the suspension of eight players including starters was much more relevant for the teams on MSU's schedule than the fact that they should just frickin' use wristbands is for the teams on Michigan's.
Etc.: It's frosty out there.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:52 PM ^
You're playing to win a game when the only way to win is not to play.
We'll do it your way in a couple of days if the buttons are pushed and it really is a legal situation. Right now it's theater.
November 5th, 2023 at 10:04 PM ^
You’re right; it is theater. But, at this point, only a few people should be on stage, and others are working behind the scenes. The university president, the A.D., the general counsel, and maybe the lead outside counsel all can make public statements. They can signal their intentions as a way to influence potential opponents, and, the general outlines of their strategy will be obvious, especially in a case like this. But the attorneys who are in the office doing research and drafting over the weekend don’t – or shouldn’t — start making statements to just anyone about the details of their work, not even friends or family. Disclosing even the most mundane details of your client’s potential strategy is still a breach of a client confidence.
November 5th, 2023 at 11:31 PM ^
I admire your commitment to the principles of lawyer-client privilege and general confidentiality of plans and processes. But a significant portion of every newspaper's coverage comes from off the record sources talking about their legal POV and "likely" strategies as a way of exerting influence in advance of and beyond courtroom proceedings. I don't know anything about the quality or truth of the poster's news source but it's not unlikely that the law firm and UM are okay with letting some of this "slip out". I don't know that's the case, of course, but it's not at all unreasonable to suspect some judicious leaking along the way.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:08 PM ^
That was the point. This is a DEFCON situation and surprise is the last thing it calls for. It's an announcement to the collective presidents that the step they're about to take is suicidal and they have one last chance to call it off.
I'm assuming most if not all the presidents of these schools know there's probably some dirt in their athletic departments and they know they don't know the full scope of it. The ADs and coaches probably aren't fully aware of what discovery would involve, but the presidents will have a different perspective on the risk.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:04 PM ^
I have no idea whether the poster has inside info, but I’d be shocked if Michigan did not have its lawyers drafting a TRO ready for Monday. You have to anticipate those things and move fast.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:05 PM ^
I don't think anyone at Michigan's firm would reveal attorney-client communications or confidential communications, however, people at the firm talk about what they are working on.
When this assignment came in, everyone in the litigation department would know what is going on and would likely talk about with each other. It's very common.
These same people tell their significant others, friends, etc. what they are working all the time although they would be careful not to reveal too much information.
And, that's just among the lawyers. Throw in office staff, service guys, receptionists, etc. and dozens and dozens of people would know. Finally, that would just be at the firm representing Michigan. Harbaugh likely has personal counsel as does Conner and who knows who else.
Hundreds of people would have an idea that Michigan is cooking up a complaint and moving for a preliminary injunction if the Big 10 acts tomorrow.
The lawyers are likely finishing up everything late tonight and all that is left to do is fill in the blanks with whatever bullshit the Big 10 uncorks tomorrow.
My prediction: Big 10 suspends for 2-games and Michigan goes nuclear. The preliminary injunction is granted and all this gets sorted out after the season.
Michigan then engages in an aggressive counter-leaking/public relations campaign that shifts the narrative just enough that Harbaugh, the Big 10 and the NCAA agree to a 3-game suspension next season and -- once that deal is approved by the NCAA Infractions Committee -- Harbaugh signs an extension.
It's a shit sandwich. Just win now, keep winning, and never forget this absurdity.
As Leon Michel Gambetta said after the French lost the Franco-Prussian War -- "Speak of it never; think of it always."
November 5th, 2023 at 8:19 PM ^
Sign the man to his extension the second he gets suspended. Then put the TRO through. Fuck the BIG. Let the war begin.
November 6th, 2023 at 4:02 AM ^
A 3-game suspension next season locks Harbaugh out of the stadium for the M v Texas game.
No bueno.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:24 PM ^
Michigan's media silence on the matter feels deliberate. I hope I'm not just exhibiting wishful thinking here. They'd better open the floodgates with all the proverbial naked photos this week and show just how damn silly this whole thing is.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:40 PM ^
I hadn’t considered this until today. I feel sure we have been doing oppo research for some time. Some of the loudest complainers are some of the most likely candidates for success with such research. Speculating? Of course. Tin foil hat level of speculation? I don’t think so.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:52 PM ^
I have been waiting and hoping for Michigan to bring out the UNO reverse card.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:56 PM ^
I agree. They have to know by now what went down and how it went down, who's involved and how other teams have played the same game. I wouldn't go public until all my ducks were in a row.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:00 PM ^
It is deliberate, of course. But it is deliberate for very wrongheaded reasons.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:17 PM ^
I do not want to see a proverbial nude photo of Ryan Day and his goat. Sorry, that came out wrong.
I do not want to see a nude photo of Ryan Day and his proverbial goat.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:28 PM ^
Those naked photos better NOT include the Illinois HC. *Shudders*
November 6th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
Do you drop the pictures of Day's hair dye now, or the week of the game?
November 5th, 2023 at 7:24 PM ^
It’s all stupid. Even if I know your signs, and if you’re still hell bent on using those signs, all you have to do is use multiple people to send the signs in. (Rutgers used four guys in different colored outfits — like freakin’ oompa loompas — to send in their signs against OSU.). Or, one guy sends in the signs but uses an indicator to let this team know what the real sign call is. This “learning a different language” crap from Purdue is dopey.
Or, use wristbands. Or — and stay with me here — go to radios in the helmet and remove all of this from the equation.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:17 PM ^
Radios, yes, but wristbands are not the simple panacea that many are suggesting. You still have to signal to those wearing them which play to look at.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:24 PM ^
Which doesn't matter if the other team doesn't have your wristband.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:01 AM ^
Uh, they'll steal your signal that matches the play and know it the rest of the game, smart guy.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:28 PM ^
But you can replace the wristbands as frequently as you like to effectively change the code. As long as the coaches on the sidelines are looking at the same play sheet as the players. On 1 drive, play 1 could be a pass but it could be a run the very next possession.
So yes, as long as you have access to a printer, they're a panacea.
November 6th, 2023 at 12:03 AM ^
You try replacing 30-50 wristbands on a hectic sideline during the middle of a game, you're gonna miss someone, I guaran-fuckin-tee it.
So no, smartass, your printer is not a panacea.
November 5th, 2023 at 11:15 PM ^
The call from the sidelines is play # 3.1.A. Nobody on the opposing team knows what that play will be without the decoder sheet, which is only on the wrist of the QB.
November 5th, 2023 at 11:56 PM ^
But the opponent in the press box and sidelines who are doing nothing but staring at your signaler sees that "31A" = Trey Right Wing 23 Duo. Next time you signal in "31A," they know the play that's coming and they load up. Not to be that guy, but man it really shows when some of you have never played or coached. Or do you guys' great "panacea" only want to run a play successfully once every game?
November 6th, 2023 at 12:05 AM ^
So why does anyone use wristbands then? Seems like you've definitely proven they provide no value. Or you're just wrong and dying on a very strange hill.
November 6th, 2023 at 8:15 AM ^
“A very strange hill”… Haha 😆
November 5th, 2023 at 7:27 PM ^
If Harbaugh is suspended who is coach for the PSU game? Moore?
November 5th, 2023 at 7:29 PM ^
The people that want Harbaugh's head won't stop there. They've already said they want Moore and Minter as well.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:56 PM ^
At a certain point, suspending the entire coaching staff is a penalty against the players. I assume they'd stop with Harbaugh.
Edit: I've changed my mind.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^
Once the guillotine starts it's hard to stop it. If one head rolls there are going to be more, and they aren't all going to be at Michigan.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:10 PM ^
At some point, Michigan players would say f this, we're not playing OSU without our coaches. Then what does the B1G do with Fox since they'd not have the big game from which presumably a lot of the value of there contract is derived. Would suck for the players and the fans, but sometimes you need to take a hit to prove a bigger point.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:56 PM ^
I wonder what would happen if the suspended coaches simply showed up for work as always? Would security remove them? Would OSU refuse to play?
November 6th, 2023 at 1:50 AM ^
PSU would call the PA state police to remove all coaches banned!
November 6th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
And store them with JoePa’s statue.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:01 PM ^
Then reinstate Stalions and let him be the HC....
November 5th, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^
It would never happen because it wouldn't be fair to the players but just refuse to play. No revenue for you fuckers. Yeah, we'll take the L with the forfeit and you can suck lemons with your financial loss. Fox might want to talk to you.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^
It would be interesting if the players just walked off the field 15 minutes before the start of the game in protest.
I always thought that Michigan should have done that when Ohio State pulled the fake bomb sniffing dog thing to the Michigan team coming off the buses in Columbus.
I would have ordered everyone back on the buses and had the drivers pull out of town. Then I would have called the network people and said: "We don't come back until the dogs are gone and the relevant Ohio State people are fired on the spot." We await your response.
November 6th, 2023 at 1:52 AM ^
The players should! Odds are the NCAA would vacate any games or a NC if the players win it all!
November 5th, 2023 at 7:28 PM ^
I hope we have the Walter’s stuff as real evidence. The fact he had signs and acts this way is so hypocritical. And his giving them to Purdue makes him guilty of 3rd party in person scouting just like Connor except Walter’s is the 3rd party. Hypocrisy
and if there is a signal stealing ring that shares they are also guilty.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:28 PM ^
Never mind -- my point got completely lost. Folks are mad, I get that. Maybe I'll try this again later. Until then -- NO I DON'T REALLY THINK THIS IS AS BAD AS IT'S BEEN MADE OUT TO BE EITHER!
November 5th, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^
But the advantage isn’t “sign stealing vs. no sign stealing”. It’s “totally legal sign stealing, video scouting, chatting up other teams, etc. vs all that plus some iPhone video from the opposite sideline”.
That difference has got to be pretty minuscule.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:58 PM ^
People really struggle with this.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:13 PM ^
Confirmation bias. People will seek "evidence" that supports their preconceived notions.
November 5th, 2023 at 9:34 PM ^
It’s “totally legal sign stealing, video scouting, chatting up other teams, etc. vs all that plus some iPhone video from the opposite sideline”.
That's assuming that other schools aren't doing the extra stuff, too.
November 5th, 2023 at 7:54 PM ^
Have you read anything this past week?
The UFR's alone would show a very clear and consistent, huge RPS metric advantage. They do not. This is much ado about nothing. More hand wringing and self flagellation.
Our society has an epidemic of poor reading comprehension, and near total inability to parse nuance.
November 5th, 2023 at 8:03 PM ^
Hey, maybe all the MGoBlog UFR's since 2021 could be used as evidence in an NCAA investigation.
There probably is no more thorough independent already-on-the-record review of every single Michigan play than that.
/just kidding
/not really
November 6th, 2023 at 2:15 AM ^
FWIW Gerdeman or Orr looked at the MGoBlogs UFRs from the PSU and the OSU games last year, and the "Rock, Paper, Scissors" factors which would be expected to be about even(?), but by their estimation showed something like a +18 advantage for Michigan in the PSU game and a +12 advantage in the OSU game which would be a statistical anomaly indicating possible evidence of some sort of untoward advantage.
On Zach Smith's podcast, somebody or other was claiming that Michigan has had a huge advantage against the spread, (especially in the 2nd half, if there even is such a thing). Not true (I think Michigan was 3-3-1 against the spread going into the MSU game, when the story broke).
November 6th, 2023 at 8:22 AM ^
Hold on, Zach Smith has a podcast?
AND you listened to it?!?!
November 5th, 2023 at 8:15 PM ^
That depends on whether the adjustments are made presnap or postsnap. If it's the latter it might look like individual players making great reads.
I agree that it's not a huge advantage (signal intelligence might be, our slightly enhanced version of it is not) but I don't find this particular argument entirely convincing.
Comments