Searchbits II: Less Depressing!
Previously: oh noser.
THEY'RE AT LEAST KICKING THE TIRES
An insider who's been on point in the past asserts that Michigan is checking on Jay Wright, Gregg Marshall, and… Billy Donovan, amongst others. Wright and Marshall are likely to be nonstarters for reasons discussed below. Vetting Donovan is a better spot than the last couple days' weird "but Al Horford" roadblock.
Another name climbing up the At Least It's Not Porter Moser board: Ed Cooley, who drew mentions from both Sam and Brian Snow. Cooley would be a B- hire but he's relatively young and a good recruiter.
OKAY THAT'S FINE
Jeff Goodman:
Two names I am told that are unlikely to leave their current spots even if Michigan were to pursue, sources told @Stadium: Notre Dame’s Mike Brey and Florida’s Mike White.
— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) May 15, 2019
You're probably thinking "the Chris Collins guy?" Yes, the Chris Collins guy. He's still a reporter who talks to people and can be relied upon to repeat what they say publicly.
Neither Brey or White moves the needle for me so whatever.
[After THE JUMP: UCLA's search provides a window into Michigan's]
IT'S HARD TO GET A GUY
This article on UCLA's shambolic search is a sobering look at trying to acquire heavy-hitters in good situations, or even moderate hitters in comfortable ones. I've bolded relevant names:
Rebholz told the donors in the message viewed by The Times that the search committee started with a list of more than 60 candidates that included some of the biggest names in coaching: Calipari, Stevens, Tom Izzo, Jay Wright, Billy Donovan, Mark Few and Tony Bennett.
Enlisting Bob Myers, UCLA alumnus and Golden State Warriors general manager, to make calls on the school’s behalf made no difference; only Calipari, Rebholz wrote, showed any interest among the home-run candidates and allowed UCLA officials, including athletic director Dan Guerrero, to meet with him. …
The Bruins’ list of candidates was further winnowed, Rebholz wrote, when other coaches such as Washington’s Mike Hopkins, Purdue’s Matt Painter and Iowa State’s Steve Prohm declined to be interviewed “regardless of our ability to pay more than we ever have, a commitment to charter as a team, and increase to assistant salary pool, etc. Very disheartening to not even have a chance with ‘Tier II’ guys.” …
“We would have loved for Jay Wright to walk out on the floor, but even when we offered to double his salary, he still wasn’t coming."
Michigan has a lot more recent success than UCLA, which has turned into an athletic department full of revolving door fiascoes in its revenue sports, but if people aren't even picking up the phone for UCLA the chances they do for Michigan aren't great.
Two names of particular relevance referenced above are Donovan and Prohm. Maybe UCLA's Donovan approach came before it was clear he would be entering a lame-duck year with zero job security; maybe the overall clown college tenor of the UCLA AD put him off. This article is written off a text from UCLA associate AD John Rebholz to big-time UCLA donors and obviously contains a lot of CYA. It still bodes unwell for Michigan's chances with two of the three guys I put above the Yak line.
The more I see stuff about Prohm the more bummed I am that he doesn't appear to be on the list. You want Beilein 2.0?
Coach Prohm gets his taken with Michael Jacobson’s grandparents in Sioux City today. #CycloneFamily pic.twitter.com/sVPDO8yTSn
— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) May 14, 2019
That's maybe as close as you're gonna get. Seems like a guy who knows some things about basketball as well.
WAIT WHAT
John Beilein's buyout is what?
Following his talks with the Pistons, Beilein and Michigan agreed to a contract extension that would have kept him in Ann Arbor through the 2022-23 season. He was set to make $3.8 million annually through the length of his deal, which ranked No. 10 nationally this past season among men's college basketball coaches.
According to the contract details, if Beilein opted to leave Michigan anytime before April 15, 2023, he was required to provide "reasonable advance written notice of the termination of his employment." He won't be required to pay a buyout.
ZERO DOLLARS? Warde Manuel signed his coach to a contract extension with a 500k raise and an automatic rollover after Beilein flirted with the NBA and got a zero dollar buyout?
Let's go back to that UCLA article and their unsuccessful pursuit of Jamie Dixon:
Dixon deeply wanted to coach the Bruins, according to multiple people familiar with his thinking, and didn’t believe his roughly $9-million buyout at Texas Christian was going to be a hindrance. Why should it be? Pittsburgh had lowered a $10-million buyout to an undisclosed sum, allowing him to take the job at TCU, his alma mater. …
The search committee received assurances from Dixon’s representatives that his buyout could be negotiated to a much smaller sum, but as the days passed it became clear that TCU wasn’t going to budge. The Horned Frogs had all the leverage and felt no need to surrender their highly coveted coach at a discount.
A significant buyout may have put off the Cavs. An insignificant one would still provide some money with which to go after someone else's buyout. Buyouts are standard practice. It is completely reasonable for Michigan to ask for one. It is astoundingly bad that Beilein didn't have one.
YET MORE VAGUE POSSIBILITIES TO DISCUSS
Gregg Marshall, Wichita State. Marshall has had a ton of success, and is still in Wichita. Marshall is a notorious screamer who got ejected from an exhibition game in Canada and refused to leave:
Video: Here's the McGill broadcast of Gregg Marshall's ejection in Canada this evening. pic.twitter.com/slaWKrBMys
— Chase Shannon (@chase_shannon) August 10, 2016
His wife had a similar incident a couple years ago in a game against Kentucky.
It's telling that the UCLA article, which namechecks just about any plausible top-end candidate, does not mention a guy who had seven straight years in the tourney with an MVC/AAC team and has a Final Four, Sweet Sixteen, and separate one-seed to his name. It does mention this:
Rebholz also described the school’s vetting of other candidates through the NCAA and an unnamed firm based in Atlanta. He said those efforts resulted in a list of coaches considered “untouchable” because of major NCAA violations, “infidelity, very low character, etc.”
Rebholz went on to name eight prominent coaches, “many of whom wanted our job, but we couldn’t hire knowing what we know due to properly vetting them out.”
Marshall almost has to be in that group. Whatever's kept him in Wichita is going to continue keeping him in Wichita.
I never knew the Naismith trophy was so goofy
Rick Barnes, Tennessee. Barnes was all set to leave for UCLA until his buyout—cumong Warde—became an issue. Barnes is 64 and that is well past the age range I'd normally consider viable, but, I mean… look around you. Barnes has significantly repaired his image with a four-year run at UT that's seen them go from 103rd in Kenpom to 57th, 13th, and 10th.
Prior to that he'd been at Texas forever, consistently gathering bids and frustrating fans with an inability to turn regular season success into post-season glory. He had one Final Four, in 2003, and a couple of Elite Eights but hadn't been past the second round since 2008 by the time Texas cut him loose in 2015.
Barnes is apparently willing to leave but extremely expensive. Adding consecutive top 15 Kenpom seasons to his existing resume at a different school is a clear indicator he can still get after it, but for how much longer? The downside risk is that Barnes runs out of gas.
I would neither love it or hate it if Michigan ended up with Barnes. So far there's been zero indicator either side is interested.
Jamie Dixon, TCU. Dixon has a resume eerily similar to Barnes's: a hot start with a ton of regular season success, tourney frustrations, a drop off that still usually garners bids, and then a move at which he's done well. And then UCLA almost hired him.
In Dixon's case his high point was higher: from 2004 to 2011, Dixon had 5 teams rank in the top 12 on Kenpom. The success at the new stop has been more difficult to come by. He managed a six seed last year but got bounced in the first round; incredibly his first year with the Horned Frogs saw his team ranked 29th in Kenpom while finishing 6-12 in the B12. It's rough out there for mid-tier Big Twelve teams.
Dixon's at his alma mater and that made me think he'd be a tough pull. The UCLA flirtation suggests otherwise. The buyout is obviously a big hurdle. If you're going to spend that much money, Donovan should be in play. Dixon is 53, FWIW.
EMOTIONAL DEVASTATION LEVEL
7.9, Moser retreat and some indication they're looking at Donovan.
Such a Maizen way to respond.
I'm starting to think it will be Donovan or Juwan. Money should not be an issue. JB was going to be making 3.5-4 million/per year. Paying someone 4.5-5.5 per year should not deter Warde or UofM. That difference is negligible.
yep and if you got a really big fish, i dont see why 6-7 miillion would be out of question
I don't see it being Juwan. He's really popular on this site, but based on Manuel's criteria that he's laid out, he wants someone who has been successful as a head coach and has a history of developing talent. While Juwan would no doubt be a good coach (I'm not familiar with his work as a coach in the NBA to be exact), he would be new to recruiting and the college game, and does not have any head coaching experience. From his perspective, he is going to get a shot at a NBA coaching gig in the next few years. If he continues to excel as an assistant, he will be an NBA coach in the next 2 years.
"based on Manuel's criteria that he's laid out, he wants someone who has been successful as a head coach and has a history of developing talent."
Assuming Manuel is being honest and not disingenuous, that would rule out Shaka Smart.
One nice thing about Howard is this would be his first 7 figure coaching salary. The fact that he is independently wealthy and a UM alum probably does not hurt. His market rate should be considerably lower than any top tier candidates given his complete lack of head coaching and college coaching experience. If you get Howard and retain Yaklich/ Washington, you continue the culture, recruiting improves, and you have yourself a fantastic stop gap as a floor for three years. The upside is unknown but with the recruiting advantages of being an iconic college player and NBA champion - let's just say we could have another decade of b-ball fun...
I mentioned in another thread, but Howard is in charge of the Heat's big men development. Mainly Whiteside and Adebayo. He's done amazing work with them. He can develop talent. He may need some assistance with the backcourt, but his ability to develop frontcourt talent should not be doubted.
Donovan makes $6M now. He'd have his pick of college jobs next year. He should command more than he makes now.
https://playerswiki.com/billy-donovan
Per this website, Donovan makes 3.9m make it 4.5 is fairly reasonable.
That site is screwed up. That was his salary at Florida. He had a contract there that ran all the way through next season and they are using its numbers.
He signed a five year, $30M contract with the Thunder.
Ok, but do you want a 66 year old coach looking to try out the top of his profession caged by a buyout? That would tarnish (admittedly to our benefit in the short term) the perception of his desire to be at Michigan regardless with future recruits and other collateral considerations.
now rumors on another site that Butler has a buyout clause for Jordan and its not small
I'm not interested in him anyway
Jordan is now +200 on the betting site, and in the lead...
I'm grateful for Jordan's time as an assistant at Michigan, but there's little evidence that he's cut out to be a head coach.
I thought I read somewhere in regards to the buyout that the advanced notice was 60 days. It doesn't sound like JB gave 60 days notice here, so they should expect to see that money, right?
This shit is depressing as hell.
Seems pretty clear the odds are that Manuel will hire anything but a big-time name and the quick descent back to the pre-Beilien stone-ages will begin.
The best coaches in decent to great situations aren't leaving for pretty much anywhere and UM is tripping over itself to keep its holier-than-thou attitude in place and avoid anything with even so much as a sniff of impropriety - all leading to a shitty coach that Izzo and Painter will feast on for 3-4 years until the cycle begins anew.
Striking oil with JB was the best luck UM has ever had - I guess it was foolish to get my hopes up that they had learned to stop making dumb ass coaching decisions once they found JB and got JH
Just more of the same instead
Had Beilein left two months ago this isn't nearly as big a problem. It's not that Warde hasn't shown a willingness to pay, but big-name guys have no incentive to change jobs off-cycle. It's not some holier-than-thou attitude about guys like Donovan (you can tell because Brian basically did an about-face on that point in the last two articles as more rumors came out) as much as "it's hard to get guys who don't have a reason to leave." And yeah, Michigan shouldn't go after guys who introduce the distinct possibility of breaking rules. Yes, people will point at LSU and Airzona as schools that "got away" with it, but as we've seen the NCAA is extremely fickle and courting the chance to get smashed just isn't in UM's DNA.
Basically every coach not named Beilein or Painter has some hint of impropriety surrounding him; Michigan isn't being naive. Only they are going to do their due diligence because they don't want to be embarrassed. It's imminently reasonable, which is why the vocal minority of people around here who like to scream loudly at all points are freaking out.
Had Beilein left two months ago this isn't nearly as big a problem.
Yah, you are probably correct here. At the very least, the pool is larger to choose from
but as we've seen the NCAA is extremely fickle and courting the chance to get smashed just isn't in UM's DNA.
Ain't that the truth! I would venture to guess that if you replaced JB and Michigan for Arizona, the NCAA would have thrown the book at UM
It's imminently reasonable, which is why the vocal minority of people around here who like to scream loudly at all points are freaking out.
I can learn to be patient, I suppose. The smoke around the search would have one believe that the final choice will be a terrible one, but your argument here convinces me that I can cool it and wait to see who is actually hired.
Plenty of time to bitch and moan after the hire is announced, if it ends up being some also-ran or Moser, for example.
Arizona has far from “got away with it”. If I were a betting man, I would bet someone else is coaching there next season. As for LSU, Wade just signed a new deal which includes a just cause firing clause for Major NCAA violations. How the hell did the old contract not include that? He got busted cheating, the AD suspends him, and the AD gets fired? Typical $EC
If he had left two months ago, Fred Hoiberg would probably been hired within a week. Woulda, coulda, shoulda
Who was available 2 months ago that isn't available now? Serious question.
Also, Donovan was still coaching two months ago. His situation has changed dramatically to the positive since then.
Chris Beard and Nate Oats, off the top of my head. Oats left Buffalo and Beard re-signed with TTU. Those were guys UM could have absolutely made a run at.
It's fun to make broad sweeping conclusions based on literally zero information isn't it?
Well, we have the tidbits of insiders on who is being considered and who isn't - so there is more than "literally zero information
And we are on a fan site, using the message board function to share thoughts and hawt takes
So yea, in that sense, it is fun. We could be in a fox hole in WW2 right now, but instead, we are writing about college basketball, so it is pretty fun in comparison.
Tidbits on coaching searches are notoriously unreliable, even from respectable sources.
The ADs only let out the info they want out and it's often in their interest to use some misdirection.
Info from the coaching side tends to come from agents. Sometimes they push names out there to boost their profile, maybe get a new contract. Sometimes they keep it secret because the speculation would hurt recruiting or might burn some bridges.
So people report what they hear, but they are only fed the information that somebody wants to get out and they have little idea if it's true when they report it.
It keeps us from weeping. Otherwise, all we have to do is think about what we’ve lost. It’s all sport
I much preferred the working title of this post: Searchbits II: Electric Boogaloo
I went to Murray State while Steve Prohm was an assistant to Billy Kennedy and continued to follow the team very closely after graduating. He is an outstanding coach and person. I had classes with his would be wife Katie and talked to him on multiple occasions. He is as close to the Beilein standard of exceptional coaching while maintaining morality as one might hope for. As such, he's been a finalist for the Skip Prosser Award. I'd be ecstatic if he came to Michigan.
"He is as close to the Beilein standard of exceptional coaching while maintaining morality as one might hope for."
Seems like it's a no-brainer that we'd make a big push for him. If we're don't, it's a head-scratcher.
I didn't understand Brian's bit above on Prohm... was Prohm saying he isn't going anywhere ?
I'm willing to give Warde the benefit of the doubt on the buyout. Beilein wasn't going to leave for another college job; it's clear now that he was intent on jumping to the NBA. Insisting on a buyout could have resulted in no deal, which might have hastened Beliein's departure and burned a bridge. His agent probably made it clear that he was willing to accept a lower salary but that his no buyout position was non-negotiable (Beilein's salary barely cracked the top 10 nationally).
I think that's exactly right.
Big buyouts tend to come with new splash hires or with big raises. Those big raises are often in response to interest from another school.
Vetting Donovan is a better spot than the last couple days' weird "but Al Horford" roadblock.Do you mean Jon Horford? As far as I know, Al Horford still likes Donovan and nearly signed with the Thunder partly because he was intrigued by the prospect of playing for Donovan again. It was Jon Horford who called Donovan a psycho, but Jon wasn't the biggest fan of Beilein either. If Jon had his way, Bacari Alexander would be our new coach. As much as I like Jon Horford, I think we can put his thoughts on the matter aside for now.
I am pretty sure that they were talking about Al Horford's recruitment and the speculation on what moved him to Florida.
Ah, got it. If Warde is holding a grudge against Donovan over that, then that's just petty. If he's concerned that it speaks to the type of operation Donovan would run, then that's certainly a legitimate concern. However, at some point, you have to accept that you're trying to replace a guy who was literally the cleanest coach in the sport. You're not going to find anyone cleaner without having to take a flier on an unproven candidate.
I'm pretty sure that was in reference to some old heads in the Michigan AD still being pissed at some potential impropriety in Al Horford's recruitment.
webb has also echo'ed it that AL horford most likely got paid
I mean Florida was objectively a better program at that time, and Billy was an objectively better coach than Amaker at the time (and in general), so I don't see why it's that big of a deal that he went to Florida.
It definitely could have had foul play, but it's not like he went to Ole Miss or something.
The Real Frank Murphy is my hero.
The Real Jon Horford is one of my favorite UM BB guys. Extremely smart kid. Yeah, he marched to his own tune, but I think he would have concurred with Murphy in Korematsu.
Jon, as you reference, called Donovan a "fucking psychopath" and noted that he "tried to force religion on him." Maybe Jon is full of crap, but I tend to believe him.
Al Horford, however, may be the matter that sticks with Warde, since he committed to UM then decommitted for Donovan. There was some rumor that FLA's inducements might have not been quite so legit.
I have a hard time seeing Donovan at UM or that Warde can't find a better fit.
Warde let Beilein sign a contract without a buyout and yet people think he won't fuck up this search.
Okey dokey.
and if last summer JB said he wouldnt agree to new contract and would be a deal breaker for him, you'd tell your most successful coach ever no and risk losing him?
sometimes you have leverage/sometimes you don't.
Losing him to who? The Pistons passed on him, otherwise he would have taken that job. It's bad business to not have a buyout when literally every other coach in the profession has one. The mental gymnastics people are doing in this thread to defend why he didn't is mind boggling.
im not saying its wrong that he didnt do more
but we werent in the room and if it an absolute no go from JB, then you can't do anything about it.
in retrospect, should they have given JB 6 million and put a juicy buyout in there? sure, but hypothetical negotiation/ultimatums are just that. can't assume you know how the convo went
Good gravy dude. You can find a way to spin ANYTHING to be the 100% worst thing ever. As noted above, it's entirely plausible that Warde / the AD had no leverage and thus there was no point in pushing for the buyout.
People would take your opinions maybe .01% more seriously if you weren't relentlessly negative. Go cheer for a different program. I don't know why you make yourself miserable trying to follow this one
After reading this the past 2 days I vote we just hire Tim Miles. He's available, he'll definitely want the job, and since he's a millionaire he won't cost as much. Plus he's a good interview. Mgoblog is gonna be a nuclear disaster site regardless of who is hired, let's just end this coaching search complaining now and get on to the complaining about the coach and the team. And if I'm being honest, I don't think he'd do that bad I think I would prefer him over a lot of the candidates listed. That Nebraska job is challenging and he did more with it than anyone. Seems I've turned my own tongue in cheek post into a publicity push for him.
Nice try, Tim
Man I wish. Even if all he turns out to be is a failed basketball coach, at least he's a millionaire. More than I can say for myself. I would certainly be a failed basketball coach if I attempted to be one, and have nowhere near that money.
I read this, and yet we have Yaklich, hiding in plain sight...
"Hardman also reported arena security was "trying to kick out" Marshall but decided it was best to be "delicate" since it was dealing with the head coach's wife.
Although minutes after the final buzzer sounded, she was reportedly escorted away from the lower bowl due to shouting expletives, according to the Associated Press."
JFC.
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