Essentials

WHAT	Michigan (2-0) vs UConn (1-2)
WHERE	Michigan Stadium Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	Noon Eastern
THE LINE	M –47.5
TELEVISION	Somehow ABC
TICKETS	From $38.
WEATHER	Partly cloudy, low 80s, 0% chance of rain 10 mph wind

Overview

Last week Seth asserted this because Hawai'i was ranked 128th in SP+:

There are bad teams. There are atrocious teams. There are Rutgers teams that belie the whole concept of Power 5. Then there's about 15 feet of crap. And then there's Hawai'i.

UConn is 126th, so just ditto everything from last week. This is the worst nonconference schedule in Michigan history. For what it's worth, UConn is 1-2 with a 31-20 loss to Utah State and a 48-14 loss to Syracuse; a 28-3 win over FCS Central Connecticut State is the win. Vegas projects Michigan to win by seven touchdowns.

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Run Offense vs UConn

This hasn't been abject. While Utah State put up 261 yards it took them 54 carries to get there, and Syracuse barely got over 3 YPC. If you're thinking "just Syracuse," the Orangemen returned both QB Garrett Shrader (4.5 YPC on 173 carries in 2021) and RB Sean Tucker (6.1 YPC!) from the ACC's third-best rushing offense—and one much close to first place than fourth.

Indeed, UConn's defense features no cyan players in their front six (though box/nickel safety Chris Shearin did check in as a trouble spot) in Alex's FFFF, which asks a deep philosophical question:

So we have to talk about UConn's defense? Has anyone ever written this much about UConn Football in the past 10 years?

No, Alex. Not even their moms.

Anyway, this defense has a legitimate DL in Collin McCarthy, who's a very odd bird. He plays a Wormley-esque DE/DT at 6'7", 253 pounds. That height and weight combination is more tight end than interior DL, but he's making it work:

He made his presence known on the third play from scrimmage by hammering his assignment into the backfield, getting off the block, and bringing the RB down for no gain:

DT #91 lined up third from the bottom of the line

Michigan had a couple interior OL hiccups against Hawaii and McCarthy will be a reasonable test as Michigan heads into the conference portion of the schedule. Also a potential test:

That's a 3-3-5 that is one of two different base packages for the UConn defense—a bog-standard 4-2-5 is the other. Michigan has not seen odd fronts with fancy blitzes this year and given the size of the UConn front I have to believe they're going to be sending guys from everywhere.

About that size: yeah, they're real tiny. McCarthy, as mentioned, is WDE sized and plays DT. Their other two down linemen are reasonably large, but their LB level goes 240, 227, 215, 197. It is likely that UConn will bring in some more beef if Michigan goes with heavy packages , but Alex thought there was a "pretty clear drop off from the first team DL" even against Utah State, so this might be another game where Luke Schoonmaker exits with a giant score after bashing in various guys who don't want 260 pounds of blocking smoke.

KEY MATCHUP: OLUWATIMI vs POINTING. Going to be a lot of pointing at guys, and then hoping you've got your line set right when UConn does all sorts of things to try to cover for the fact that if Michigan delivers an OL to any linebacker that guy is going for the donkey ride.

Pass Offense vs UConn

please imbibe safety on bottom hash next to umpire

This is abject. UConn gave up 9.1 yards per attempt to Utah State and 12.1(!) to Syracuse. Their problem is that they cannot cover. Also they cannot rush. Their two main problems are that they cannot cover or rush. Just take in a few plays here from the Syracuse game:

Garrett Shrader could fall in a tar pit, die, and become coal before a Husky sacks him.

Meanwhile Alex took multiple clips of a Mountain West quarterback who's not exactly JJ McCarthy slinging ten yard hitches to the field that featured YAC:

My biggest fear in this game is watching the UConn corners and having flashbacks to RichRod secondaries. If you find me wandering the concourse muttering "James Rogers never dies," please douse me with water.

But, yeah: this will be an opportunity for JJ McCarthy to fling things around. UConn drops into a lot of seven and eight man zones. These are not good zones, but it is at least some level of test. Watching the Syracuse highlights is illuminating. One reason the horrible pass rush is so prominent is that Syracuse's QB is holding the ball forever trying to figure out where to go. Ideally McCarthy will be more decisive, with hang-around-forever-then-improvise stuff limited to a few plays here and there.

KEY MATCHUP: JJ MCCARTHY vs SELF. If McCarthy is anywhere near his performance level last week, he can name his score. Or Michigan can get up 7-0, run one dropback, and see out the quarter. Either way.

Run Defense vs UConn

[UConn]

Like Hawaii, UConn comes in with one offensive player who has a bit of juice and it's the running back, Nathan Carter. Alex:

Carter has 384 yards on 59 rushes for a cool 6.5 yards per carry. Of course we have to keep in mind strength of schedule for those stats (two of UConn's three opponents have been this Utah State team and a bad FCS team in Central Connecticut State), but Carter showed some traits I like even when his OL is not winning consistently. His longest rush in this game was mostly the doing of his offensive line, but he makes the right cutback:

He looks quite a bit like CJ Stokes. It's doubtful that UConn is going to be able to maintain Carter's yards per carry in this game, though. They did crush Utah State and CCSU for 245 and 274 yards, but a P5 defense that SP+ projects as middling at best (Syracuse's defense is 49th) held the Huskies under 100 rushing yards. Carter picked up 71 on 16 carries. It's also worth noting that Utah State appears to be horrible this year—they're coming off a 35-7 loss to Weber State.

KEY MATCHUP: WEAKSIDE ENDS vs DOUBLES. UConn did run a bunch of heavy formations against Syracuse and went under center a ton. Given their QB situation it makes some sense to just load up and see if opponents can handle the heavy stuff. Michigan is not a good candidate for this approach but what else do they have? The concern for Michigan, such as it is, is that Braiden McGregor got blown out by a couple doubles, and Derrick Moore is a freshman, etc.

Pass Defense vs UConn

true freshman: hello

Remember Ta'Quan Roberson? Probably not. If you don't: last year Penn State was leading Iowa in the most unlikely #3 vs #4 matchup of all time when Sean Clifford was knocked out of the game. Roberson came in, and this is what happened:

Roberson struggled, completing 7 of 21 passes for 34 yards. He threw two interceptions and added 27 yards on the ground on 10 rushes. Perhaps most concerning was pre-snap penalties that piled up — eight false starts in all.

That was Roberson's last appearance at Penn State. He transferred to UConn, where he got two attempts against Utah State before tearing his ACL. Michigan is now going to face that guy's backup. The guy who did not beat out the other guy who could not get to 1.5 YPA in his one extended playing time.

That guy is true freshman Zion Turner. Turner actually has a reasonable recruiting profile as the composite #600 player in last year's class, and he led Florida powerhouse St. Thomas Aquinas to back-to-back state titles. I expected worse. But… yeah, this looks like it's going to be one of those Rutgers games where the quarterback isn't throwing anything more than three yards downfield. Turner completed just 12 of 31 attempts against Utah State. Once UConn was able to go over the tape they decided on the Johnny Langan. Turner completed 14/17 against Syracuse, but only gained 92 yards on those completions despite a 56-yard touchdown on a WR screen. The other 13 completions went for 2.8 yards a pop. Literally nothing went downfield farther than the odd slant.

That's not fate for Turner, who has at least provided some glimmers of the ability to throw further than seven yards, but if that was the prescription for a home game against Syracuse it's unlikely that the Husky coaching staff is eyeing this game as the one where Turner gets a lot of dropbacks to show off what he can do. Expect the blizzard of screens.

KEY MATCHUP: SAFETIES vs BOREDOM. They're going to get a steady diet of guys to tackle in the open field and probably two balls that attempt to go over the top. Get hypnotized by the screen screen screen screen and someone might pop up behind you.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Punter George Cataran may be familiar for depth chart freaks: he was at Michigan in 2018 and 2019, though he did not see the field. A transfer to Arkansas preceded his transfer to UConn. Finally on the field, he's averaging 41 yards an attempt with almost literally no return yards suffered—a total of five on 14 punts. This is only good for 80th in FEI's punt efficiency stat, somehow.

Kicker Noe Ruelas is a redshirt freshman who's 2/3 on the year, so it's anyone's guess if he's any good.

UConn return units have done nothing of note to date. They do have a lot of short slippery guys, and last year Keelan Marion averaged 12 yards a pop—the problem was that UConn's defense was historically awful so they only returned 13 punts on the year.

Michigan remains very good at special teams.

KEY MATCHUP:  AHHHH YOU CONTINUE DOING EVERYTHING THE BEST

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if…

• The pass protection metric isn't at least 95%.
• Collin McCarthy has a day.
• There is a downfield completion.

Cackle with knowing glee if…

• "JJ McCarthy just doesn't miss" continues being literal.
• Notre Dame loses again.
• An angel descends at halftime and promises we never have to play UConn again.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 0 (Baseline: 5; –1 for Ta'Quan Roberson's Backup, –1 for James Rogers Clone Army In Secondary, –1 for Lookin' Up At EMU in SP+, –1 for JJ Flamerthrower Era Engage, –1 for More Like UConn't)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline: 5; +5 for This Would Be Several Times Worse Than The Horror.)

Loss will cause me to… blow on the cartridge until the Matrix stops glitching.

Win will cause me to… same as last week: spend next week pretending what JJ did against this defense was remotely meaningful.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Pain. Mostly for people in the stadium when they go TD-commercial-kickoff-commercial-three-and-out-commercial-TD-commercial. And UConn.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid on Saturday:

• CJ Stokes cracks 100 yards rushing.
• Darrius Clemons scores a touchdown.
• JJ McCarthy DSR: 92%.
• Michigan, 57-8